Is Anything Missing?

111
Sun, Sep 14, 2014 - 2:38pm

A man must know his limitations...

Eastwood- A Man's Got to Know his Limitations

Problem is : what are my limitations?

I guess there are two types: the limitations I have been taught; and the limitations I still have to learn about myself.

Am I limited by experiences I had, or by experiences I never (yet) had:

"Easiest Way to Turn Your Kids into Geniuses" - John Taylor Gatto - AWESOME!

.... or by experiences and lessons I will never ever get to have?

Possibly I have been taught limitations which I do not really have, but as long as I accept them they limit me and "contain" my potential....

https://www.johntaylorgatto.com/multimedia/paradox.mp3

Be that as it may, I have no alternative but to move forwards from how and where I find myself now with the knowhow and assets I currently have. This idea operates pretty universally. It applies within me for sure, and it also applies to the world outside of me.

Sometimes I can see what is missing ..

and sometimes I can't ... but I can often look around at what is present and then figure out what's missing ....

on the other hand, sometimes it will never be possible to obtain answers about that which is missing ....

(image https://coloradoghosts.blogspot.ie/)

... but whatever ... I must move on with what I've got.

So what is not known can be vital.

Sherlock Holmes observed "the dog that didn't bark" at the crime scene and knew the culprit must the the dog's owner. What isn't there can be more revealing than what is. It depends.

So continuing in that vein, here is a book :

This book in it's original edition had 1348 pages. But when printed one version of this book had only 676 pages, and it was essentially the second half of the whole book.

This book fell foul of several problems when it was published. It got produced in "half" form. It sold out, and when prospective buyers, or libraries requested copies they were told that it was out of print. But it didn't get reprinted. And the publishing company of the sold out edition had copyright so nobody else could print it either.

The printers' plates for the original got destroyed by some sort of "accident".

Two pages were "left out".

Another complication was that the author who wrote it in good faith thinking that was ok, discovered he had "ruffled some feathers in high places" among those he previously considered his friends or at least, colleagues. He was loyal at first but later in his life, and this is subjective, he may have changed his opinion of his high society colleagues from earlier in his life. Interviews are not clear on this and the few audio records available must be listened to carefully.

1974 interview with Carroll Quigley to hear him describe in his own words how the book was suppressed and its marketing plan undermined.

The book is available on a website of the author's name:

https://www.carrollquigley.net/pdf/Tragedy_and_Hope.pdf

But 1300+ pages is quite a doorstop of a volume so you might (if in a hurry) like to know about this link to a summary, a shortened version of Carroll Quigley's most salient points:

https://www.wanttoknow.info/articles/quigley_carroll.tragedy_hope_banking_money_history

There is a fascinating discussion here about it: https://www.tragedyandhope.com/which-versions-of-tragedy-and-hope-are-th...

Working on the principle that what is missing may be extremely interesting - those two pages which went missing - what did they contain? Here is a part of page 62 from link at the author's named website:

That would make interesting reading for people in government no doubt. But is it one of the missing pages? Or is it an interesting page located after the missing pages which moved into their place when they disappeared? And did I just highlight a part of the text somebody found offensive, (offensive to a degree beyond the other text), I won't provide the answer, so as to give you a good reason to delve into this at your leisure!

So the missing parts of that particular book provide illumination beyond their apparent content. They illuminate beyond their scope as it were. So interesting. It seems to me that what I need is some similar thing or source which does the same but is right up to date. That would be a wonderful help in figuring out what those in higher places than I are currently getting up to.

Well I can self educate and look at their motivations, and speculate as to what they must do to prosper. But if there are things I am not aware of my imagination might not go far enough and my speculations could fall short of the reality. It's those darned unknowns again!

Donald Rumsfeld Unknown Unknowns !

I leave it to you to consider how bizarre it is that a part of my message for today should be uttered, in one particular form, by that particular person! At least, I find it bizarre.

So we are all kept in the dark like mushrooms and getting fed BS? I agree that a substantial number of us are. However, while it is never, ever, mentioned, there's always the door if we wake up and decide to use it. Always the misinformation is present, ready to lure all of our attentions away from looking at the right things. Once we understand the game we must apply self discipline to not fall for the product of the PR industry. This is where the movie "The Matrix" comes easily to mind. Many people feel that it applies uncannily to life today. But it's just a fiction with a meme of unknown controllers of the everyday. Take a real person instead. We can do that Richard Branson thing and begin to grow ourselves. Step out of our parent's car (govt protective coccoon) and find our own way home seeing whatever we see on the way! I wish I could verify that Branson story! But it's ok for this essay.

So what about a source regarding the current system which is more "up to date" than Carroll Quigley? This is a little more difficult. Time elapsed provides perspective and we use that perspective to judge the accuracy and honesty of sources. But a present day source will not come with such a pedigree.

We can look at the change of behaviour of eg Alan Greenspan before and during his job as FedHed, FedChair, FedBoss or whatever it's called nowadays - how about FedPA for the Bossofbosses? Didn't the Italians have a word for that? The Capo di Tutti Capo? Earlier in his career Greenspan wrote about the merits of hard money (the paper is available online) and the gold standard. But later, when he had power, he did the opposite. That must have been some "Road to Damascus Revelation" moment when he turned! Ah to have been a fly on the wall when that conversation took place would have really been something!

So given that there has been no coup, and Greenspan's replacement Bernanke, and Bernanke's replacement Yellen have both been chosen by the same system, it's a sure thing they have great amounts of the same qualities. Therefore the successors are just as friendly to our interests as nice Mr Greenspan was. Which is not very friendly. They'll never change and are always going to do more of the same stuff! We don't need to see, we can look at what's around the information gap and infer what we need to know. But a little more details would be nice, (in a holding our hands kind of supportive way) so we get weak and once again listen to the psychobabble and in so doing we expose ourselves to the misinformation.

Better to accept the lack of detailed knowledge, accept the difficulty of proceeding without a full picture, accept that whose with complete satisfying pictures probably have their own agenda which is not for our benefit.

So this week the(ir) rumour mill is all full of deflation, and words like that. Funny thing. It seems to me that gold was going down (deflation) last year and the year before. Old news. But there are impressionable folks out there, so the gold price went down last week a bit as these investors unloaded their gold to ... hmm .... somebody else. Where is all that deflation stuff coming from anyway? The reports I mean? J S Kim of SmartknowledgeU dot com's closing phrase seems to apply here : Remain Intensely Curious.

You can't fight progress so they say. It may be true. So did it ever occur to you that opposing the march towards crazy and spreading the word about what's wrong might be delaying it just enough to ensure society arrives there right on time? It's a sobering thought.

On that point - the march to crazy - here is Ed Seykota talking with Michael Covel about Seykota's book called Govopoly:

https://traffic.libsyn.com/trendfollowing/208.mp3

Seykota is/was a trading legend and that sounds like a good insightful book. On my list, but the list is pretty long these days. But I like the taste the interview provides.

There's a lot more from Mr Covel at trendfollowing.com. He has many really good interviews here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcasts/ It's worthwhile looking through his backlist from time to time.

It's unnecessary to say to "be careful when dealing with markets". What you don't know, and don't know you don't know, can take a chunk out of your hide! In a way shaking hands with Mr Market is like shaking hands with Whiplash Willie! Count your fingers after the interaction!

For those not already in the know, or below a certain age, Whiplash Willie was the name of a crooked damages seeking lawyer played by the inimitable Walter Matthau in The Fortune Cookie. It has a truly great cast: Billy Wilder, Jack Lemmon, Walter Matthau all together, maybe not as brilliant as Some Like It Hot, what with no Marilyn Monroe present. The Fortune Cookie was made in 1966, and it's still as sharp as a tack and could have been done yesterday! I'll leave you to search it, if you are in the mood you'll have some good laughs. Highly recommended for raising of morale.

Well that's it for the moment. I look forward to what you have to say in the comments section!

Cheers

Argentus Maximus

The author posts daily commentary on the gold and silver markets in the TFMR forum: The Setup For The Big Trade. More information about the author & his work can be found here: RhythmNPrice.

About the Author

  111 Comments

judejin achmachat
Sep 15, 2014 - 2:47am

achmachat

maybe try converting it to silver coins.

achmachat
Sep 15, 2014 - 2:52am

lol @ silver in mainland China!

not gonna happen!

If I was able to sell my physical in China for the price that it's being sold in all those gold shops, I'd be a millionaire!

Retail physical silver for the "normal" guy in small bars, medallions or coin shape is pretty much twice of spot price.

I hope the situation is better in Shanghai (that's where you are, no?)

Safety Dan
Sep 15, 2014 - 3:01am

Junk bond fund repeating 1999

Junk bond fund repeating 1999 & 2007′s pattern?

09/13/2014 at 8:44 am, filed under High Yield Adjusted Spread, High Yields, Junk Bonds; No Comments.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The Pimco High Yield fund (PHDAX) for a period of time around from 1997 to 1999 & 2005 to 2007 found it difficult to move higher, creating a series of level highs. At the same time it created a series of higher lows. Once old support was tested as resistance and it failed to move higher, large declines in junk bonds and the stock market took place.

Over the past couple of years, the fund may have created a pattern that looks similar to 1999 & 2007, as it seem to have trouble getting above the highs hit in 2007.

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

The above chart of the B of A/Merrill Lynch high yield adjusted spread highlights that when sharp rallies took place in 2000 & 2007, stocks turned soft.

It might pay to keep a close eye on the Pimco high yield fund and the adjusted spread in the next few weeks, to see if any important messages come from the junk bond complex.

- See more at: https://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/#sthash.meQ98ivg.dpuf

Safety Dan
Sep 15, 2014 - 3:06am

Weighing the Week Ahead: Will

Weighing the Week Ahead: Will the Fed Change Course? https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Jeff-Miller-Week-Ahead-...

The Good

There was a lot of very good news, supporting the general thesis of economic strength.

  • Q2 GDP growth is getting revised higher. It is “massive” according to this article (Goldman’s estimate is now 4.7%) and it is spilling over to Q3 estimates.
  • Deficit reduction in the US. The combination of very slow growth in spending and a brisk increase in revenues has reduced the deficit. Scott Grannis calls the 3% gap “very manageable. His analysis includes this helpful chart:

  • Michigan sentiment beat expectations. Doug Short always has a fine analysis of the confidence data and his chart would be a great example for a college class or textbook on data analysis. He shows the data series, the average level, the relationship with GDP and the clear ties to recessions — all in one attractive chart.


Click for a larger image

  • Retail sales met current expectations and beat estimates if you consider revisions. The market, especially fixed income, saw this as economic strength, so that is how I am scoring it. Retail was weak in Q1 and the Q2 rebound was generally disappointing. Last week’s report was a welcome sign of strength. Doug Short’s analysis explains the significant and frequent revisions. Steven Hansen at GEI sees the data as mixed. Bespoke has an interesting angle, with an emphasis on gasoline prices. When fuel prices were spiking, some observers noted that this artificially inflated retail sales with consumption that was actually negative for the economy. Now that we are seeing fuel price decreases it is important to remember that this is a drag on retail sales. Nick Timiraos at the WSJ sees lower gas prices translating quickly into other spending.

The Bad

There was also some negative news, some of which is difficult to translate into a market effect.

  • Ukraine conflict turns worse. As I write this, the apparent progress toward a cease fire (noted last week) has ended. Another Russian convoy is entering Ukraine without permission. Shots have been exchanged. Also, the Treasury is expanding sanctions.
  • China’s imports have stalled according to the analysis from Dr. Ed Yardeni. Imports are an important indicator of economic strength, so the data are worth following. Dr. Ed is suspicious of the report, however, partly because the data come out so promptly — much faster than other countries. We would all like to know about the Chinese economy, but it remains challenging to follow. For what it is worth, here is the Yardeni chart:

  • Labor force participation might not be able to increase much according to recent research by Fed economists. I covered the significance of this issue in a recent WTWA post featuring employment. If there is little potential for increase in LFP, then we are closer to increased wage costs than Fed Chair Yellen expects. Max Ehrenfreund of The Washington Post has a good story and this chart:

  • Scottish secession worries. The chance of a “yes” vote on Scottish independence seemed remote a week ago, but the polls have changed dramatically. Here is the betting line via The FT – negative as of Thursday, but very fluid. Here are the implications for investors.
  • Dollar strength is a negative for some stocks. Mohamed El-Erian explains the underlying dynamics, with a nod to the Scottish jitters. The relationship between the dollar and stocks seems to involve dramatic “regime” changes. There are periods of risk off/risk on where the dollar has an inverse correlation with stock prices. The long-term relationship shows stronger stocks aligned with a stronger dollar. Brian Gilmartin does a first-rate job of translating this trend into impacts on specific stocks. Check out his analysis. Here is the key quote:

    A strong dollar benefits importers and penalizes exporters, all other elements being equal. I wish I could access the data, but I would guess that, after 2008, and the growth of BRIC’s and such in the last decade, of total US GDP, the US is a larger “net exporter” than say in the late 1990’s when the Asian Tigers collapsed, so prolonged strength in the dollar could have a net-net negative impact on SP 500 earnings over time, if the strength in the dollar is persistent.

The Ugly

Our “ugly” list for the last few weeks remains unfortunately accurate. We had headline news from all conflicts with plenty of violence and death competing for our attention. The Ebola crisis, cited a fewweeks ago, continues to worsen. We may have to accept these as the “standing ugly list” so that we can consider new issues. These are all very ugly, but I want this category to be open to new entrants. If I missed something this week, please raise it in the comments!

The Silver Bullet

I occasionally give the Silver Bullet award to someone who takes up an unpopular or thankless cause, doing the real work to demonstrate the facts. Think of The Lone Ranger. No award this week. Nominations are welcome.

Quant Corner

Whether a trader or an investor, you need to understand risk. I monitor many quantitative reports and highlight the best methods in this weekly update. For more information on each source, check here.

ivars
Sep 15, 2014 - 3:07am

This Quigley book is a must

This Quigley book is a must read for everyone trying to understand who rules whom and how. But it, even with missing pages, it does not have enough concrete facts about bankers. I mean it has a lot, most of many, but the rest exists only in fragmented form or in ROCK MORGAN ROTH dynasty archives/secret govt archives- not available for reading even, not to mention research.

So a lot of banker actions/ conspiracies need to be conjured from net results of certain events. Which causes disbelief, naturally. But in the end, the whole rediscovery of these actions should fit together in one and only one unique way, which will then sound pretty accurate and believable. Quigley gets closer than most to this aim. A pity he did not investigate/write on this more, publishing somewhere out of banker reach. The fact the book got harassed like almost no other seemingly inconspicuous history book in latest history tells a lot.

ivars
Sep 15, 2014 - 3:26am

This should be telling

This should be telling finally who is in charge to initiate interest rate raises and why was he- Stanley Fisher, Former Isreal CB Chairman, clear Roth man, placed as ViceChair by Obama and Dem Senate in the FED (also Roth people) . He is in charge. He was appointed by Senate one day before David Rockefeller's son died in plane crash (June 13th, 2014) , day after David's 99th birthday (June 12th, 2014) .

Quote:
On May 21, 2014, the Senate confirmed Fischer's appointment to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.[21] In a separate vote on June 12, he was confirmed as the vice chair.[21] Fischer succeeded Janet Yellen as vice chair; Yellen became chair of the Federal Reserve earlier in 2014.

I do not think, personally, David will live till 100. That was an obsession of his grandfather, John. D. Rockefeller, the original one, to live till 100 years. He thought he deserved it. He died at 97, close to 98.

David's Next birthday on June 12th 2015 will serve once again as an important date. There is FOMC meeting scheduled on June 16-17th 2015. To me , death of David Rockefeller means that last emperor of American( Rock/Morgan) monetary Empire will die, and there will be some succession struggle/ weaker Emperor following, controlled already by Roths mostly whereas with David they had to fight to get him succumb to the inevitable return of Roths by October 2011 with gold USD price squeeze they engineered.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-12/fed-s-fischer-leads-committee-watching-for-asset-price-bubbles.html

Quote:

he Federal Reserve has created a committee led by Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer to monitor financial stability, reinforcing its efforts to avoid the emergence of asset-price bubbles.

Joining Fischer on the Committee on Financial Stability are Governors Daniel Tarullo and Lael Brainard, according to the central bank’s latest Board Committee list.

Fed officials want to ensure that six years of near-zero interest rates don’t lead to a repeat of the excessive risk-taking that fanned the U.S. housing boom and subsequent financial crisis.

“They’re putting the varsity team on it, but whether or not they’re going to be able to call bubbles better than anyone else is really is an open question,” Drew Matus, deputy U.S. chief economist at UBS Securities LLC in New York, said in an interview yesterday.

Sharpening the issue, measures of volatility across stocks, bonds and currencies worldwide have declined to record or multi-year lows this year, in a potential sign of investor complacency.

Fischer’s committee joins the Fed’s Office of Financial Stability Policy and Research, led by Nellie Liang, a senior Board economist, on the lookout for signs of market excess.

I bet it will be Fisher who will call the rate increase date (within FED) .

Options in H2 2015 are:

1) rate increase, war in Europe by Russia , China becoming part of reserve currency by investing in Yuans /lending to Russia etc OR

2) new QE , demise of USD, disruption of global monetary system, unpredictable mess, loss of banker power/control , wars all over the world as American Empire will disappear in disorganized, unplanned way.

I am placing my bets on first one. Of course, there always can be some mixture of both and some uncertainty, but there is not much deviation bankers may allow from version 1 to continue their control.

Safety Dan
Sep 15, 2014 - 3:31am

The Inflation-Debt Scam By

The Inflation-Debt Scam By Paul Craig Roberts, David Kranzler and John Williams.

John Williams, an expert on government economic statistics, has been a private consulting economist for more than thirty years (www.shadowstats.com).

Dave Kranzler (www.investmentresearchdynamics.com) has years of experience in financial markets.

Paul Craig Roberts is an economist and former Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Treasury for Economic Policy

atarangi
Sep 15, 2014 - 3:33am

Ancient wisdom

Thanks Judejin. Chinese empirical knowledge is a proven winner.

atarangi
Sep 15, 2014 - 3:47am
ivars
Sep 15, 2014 - 3:49am

Seems Oil has broken  (WTI)

Seems Oil has broken (WTI) some important trendline to the downside-on monthly chart; also below 50 month MA:


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