Dancin' in September

85
Fri, Sep 12, 2014 - 2:34pm

So what changed on September 1, 2014. I'm open to suggestions.

Presented without further commentary:

It sure looks to me that, since the calendar flipped to September, the only thing rallying is the dollar. What could that be telling us? I look forward to reading the collective insights of Turdville.

TF

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  85 Comments

· Sep 12, 2014 - 1:38pm

And while we're at it...

Have you noticed the new, multi-year low of The Yen vs The Dollar?

And what about this? According to the HFT algos, the only thing we need for a turnaround in gold is a turnaround in the yen. That darn Abe...

Spartacus Rex · Sep 12, 2014 - 1:43pm
Safety Dan · Sep 12, 2014 - 1:55pm
Pseudozero · Sep 12, 2014 - 1:57pm

thurd

my uneducated, and inpatient guess is we're looking at the beginning of the great de-leveraging, not unlike mike maloney's idea of a period of sharp deflation, followed by extreme fiat hyperinflation...

i think before everybody crowds into gold (tangibles), they're going to want to pay down their debts, and that action takes money from almost everywhere else, causing a brief but painful deflation, then the fed, and the ecb really crank up the presses in response, and we go the way of zimbabwe.

but i'm no expert. 

Silverivalist · Sep 12, 2014 - 2:13pm

That sucking sound you hear...

The recent rise in the USD is mainly due to the rapid decay of the rest of the worlds fiat monetary system. While the US keeps up the facade of an ever improving economy, the remaining countries in our basket of currencies have not been able to pull off the illusion. As our central planners keep pushing the levers to full tilt, other countries economies are crumbling. She's breaking up Capt'n.

We are watching the dollar die in slow motion and in real time. The death rattle is strong in this one, just as a snake wiggles wildly for quite some time after it's head is cut off, we will continue to see the false illusion of strength in the dollar during it's final dying days. The planners will not let this go down quietly, it will crash with a stupendous bang.

BagOfGold · Sep 12, 2014 - 2:28pm

This may be something to keep an eye on!...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F6AXP41mr7Q

Also...there is a 4 part series...if anyone is interested!!!...

Video unavailable

surprisesurprisesurprise

Bag Of Gold

ancientmoney · Sep 12, 2014 - 2:38pm

What happened on September 1, 2014?--that's easy!

Why, the impossible, of course.

How can the dollar go up while USTs drop?

This appears to be the beginning of the bond death spiral.

Edit:

From the UST COT, it looks like they stopped trading the UST futures.

ivars · Sep 12, 2014 - 2:46pm

Yen metals correlation was

Yen metals correlation was spotted by It's a Mystery some time ago in AM setup thread. There has to be some rational explanation to this but I never understood his theory if he had one. There should be...it is before our eyes..but how exactly does it work?

Icarus · Sep 12, 2014 - 2:50pm

So what changed on September 1, 2014 ????

NOTHING!

I'm in the Ted Butler camp. You can only fleece the sheep, when you have sheep to fleece. The sheep enter the barnyard when there are precious metals positives out there.

September is the best month of the year historically for the metals. The 'dumb' money, aka the individual investor, the hedge funds, the technical funds, started going long in anticipation of the autumn and September climb. Plenty of raw meat for JP Morgan to cut up and eat......so they did....because they can....

It's been the wash, rinse, repeat cycle for three years now. EVERYTIME there is something, anything, metal positive the price gets hammered. Nothing new here.

Autumn is the best time of year for the metals, but they have been hammered EVERY autumn for three years. 

When these sheep hit the highest point of pain, and puke up all their longs to JP Morgan, then, and only then, will the price begin to rise, so JP Morgan can make some money taking the other side of the bet (they have been going long against the technical fund selling, so they won't let it go to zero).

The game will continue until someone goes to jail, and I've yet to see anyone go to jail.

A weekly close below $18.80 in silver will be a very ominous situation which could portend MUCH lower prices from here. Prepare to see a spike down low to clear out the bid stack and mazimize pain. Are there any sheep left to shear below $18.50 silver??? $1220 gold??? We'll see soon enough. That's all that matters!

Icarus

James Crighton Pseudozero · Sep 12, 2014 - 3:23pm

That's a good theory -

That's a good theory - plausible.

James Crighton Pseudozero · Sep 12, 2014 - 3:23pm

That's a good theory -

That's a good theory - plausible.

meegoreng1 · Sep 12, 2014 - 3:36pm

Not a peep from the miners!

While their 'bread and butter' is being manipulated, none of them are speaking up.

Why? Do they think it is not manipulated? Absolutely NOT! They all do know but will keep quiet because......

....everyone of these executives who work for the major miners are placed in their positions by their owners, TPTB.

Yes, TPTB and their subsidiaries own the majority shares of ALL these miners so they dictate the placement of executives.

The rabbit hole is deeper than we think it is.......

Regarding the USD, it will be treated as a winning horse and not the Pig that we make it out to be.

zman · Sep 12, 2014 - 3:55pm

The US dollar is still

The US dollar is still overvalued relative to the Euro and Pound, try and convert your dollars into Euros and start spending in Europe, you will see that it's still super expensive.

I think the key element that the markets are telling us is that QE doesn't create strong economic growth or inflation. The only thing that will change that outcome in a major way is a change in FISCAL POLICY, there is little that monetary policy can do at this point, if Congress and policymakers are forced to change fiscal policy, then everything could change, including the direction of the PM markets.

So why haven't they (US,Euro, Japan) done any stimulative fiscal policy? The want to maintain low inflation and keep interest rates down, basically the bond holders control fiscal policy today in all developed nations, and I don't think that's going to change anytime soon.

The US dollar could be in the beginning stages of a multi-year rally, if so it would help Europe with the weaker Euro, and help Japan with the weaker Yen. It could just be more of the same for the global economy, slow growth and low inflation, and more QE if needed.

SilverSurfers · Sep 12, 2014 - 4:03pm

Dancing in Dec

according to Harvey Organ on watch dog. Trud may just get his 26 ag by new years. Im pulling for you turd!!!

mfields111 · Sep 12, 2014 - 4:16pm

so what's changed in September

Harvey Organ is correct, the dollar will collapse when the Chinese cannot get any delivery of silver and gold and the west is out. Further, the CME adopts new rules starting Monday that will make it impossible /highly unlikely for the rigging of the markets to continue on the comex, and the new exchanges in Shanghai/London and Dubai and Singapore will come on line to compete with Comex /London so the bankers are attempting to get long by rigging the markets lower to squeeze every long they can get their hands on. 

procog · Sep 12, 2014 - 4:31pm

What's changed since September 1, 2014?

Vacation in the Hamptons is over and Hot Shots go back to work. Only have 1 month 'till October to stop EBT and govt employee checks, maybe SS checks for good measure. Shock and awe for November elections. Need to keep Senate in grasp, and maybe pry the House back into the fold. We can also use event to further practice our militarization domestically, Boston on steriods. Maybe even Martial Law. Rahm isn't in DC but strategy still functions. Sure hope I am wrong. Have a nice weekend. 

TJeffson · Sep 12, 2014 - 4:42pm

It's not just PM related..

as is shown in the charts... everything else is down as well. Could it be something to do with Jackson Hole and/or QE staying on course to be ended in October?

SilverSurfers · Sep 12, 2014 - 5:09pm

On 9/1/14

atlas shrugged

AIJ · Sep 12, 2014 - 5:13pm

What Changed on Sept 1st ?

..A Martin Armstrong Turn date of 9/3/14 

His turn dates are about Capital Flows

How have the "Flows" changed?

SilverX3 · Sep 12, 2014 - 5:15pm

Bonds selloff triggered by this?

https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/9/12_P...

I'd be scared to live in the US if everything PCR outlines comes to fruition. The Fed will one day pull the plug and seize all public & private assets, including the long anticipated looting of public pensions.

nadgeskaul · Sep 12, 2014 - 5:32pm

Deflation Fears is my Guess

I think Europe really started this new paradigm as deflationary fears run rampant. This, alongside Fed tapering, has led to the dollar strength and UST sell-off. This will only get more severe until the Fed steps in and indicates further purchases.

THEN PMs should take off, but I wouldn't be surprised with further pressure on them in any regime. 

nadgeskaul · Sep 12, 2014 - 5:41pm

Not picking on you but...

"Deflationary fears" should lead to a bond market rally, not a selloff because deflation makes bonds at 2% look pretty good. Inflation at 5% makes 2% bonds very unattractive.

Bonds should sell off when folks are afraid of inflation, not deflation. And if folks are afraid of inflation, shouldn't crude, stocks and the metals be rising?

See the dichotomy?

Coin Explorer · Sep 12, 2014 - 5:49pm

You think it's crazy now?

So far, we see sanctions squeezing the EU almost as hard as they're squeezing Russia (it it still beats shooting guns at each other,) which is keeping their economy's head below water. ECB QE has tanked the euro, Abenomics has tanked the yen, the looming Scottish vote has tanked the pound. The only two currencies still standing are the dollar and the yuan. 

EU and UK stocks are taking profits ahead of the Scottish vote (and fears of Catalonia, the Basque areas of France and Spain, Brittany and Flanders wanting to split as a result,) US stocks are taking profits because "good news is bad news" again, and they're pissing their drawers the Fed is going to stop ZIRP and put a halt to nearly interest-free stock buybacks and takeovers. Treasuries yields are also jumping on expectations of an imminent rate hike.

Next week, we have the FOMC meeting on Tues and Wed. Watch the markets burn themselves down if the Wednesday statement doesn't say "considerable time" before the first interest rate hike. (Remember, QE is supposedly ending next month.) In any case, *anything* the Fed says that day will be viewed from a hawkish perspective. oh yeah, YELLEN WILL TALK. What is she gonna say that she shouldn't, this time?

The day after that, Scotland votes to secede from the UK. If they do, it will nuke the UK banking sector. Lloyds and RBS have both already said that they're moving their headquarters to London if they leave the UK. The same day, the international trading bourse opens on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. I have a feeling that was haven't seen Asian physical demand for gold despite the price drop, because institutional buyers are being "encouraged" to hold off and give the SGE bourse a rousing opening.

The next day is Friday, which wraps up the week with a Triple Witching Day. Fun Fact: Since 1991, stocks have ended the week after the September Triple Witching Friday with a loss 77% of the time.

Mantis · Sep 12, 2014 - 6:19pm

Those charts tells us

Buy the dollar

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Mantis · Sep 12, 2014 - 6:23pm

or buy some of these

cash is king

Video unavailable
nadgeskaul · Sep 12, 2014 - 6:25pm

You would think....

Deflation fears in Europe would lead to asset purchases in the US, including treasuries. We did see this earlier in the year. But, I think the latest sell-off is only due to QE ending and expected rate hikes...inflation isn't possible in Europe right now; it could finally poke its head out here as all these foreign dollars come home.

I think this is a mere pause in the overall bull market for equities. So, inflation is possible (at hand in many regards) in the US and deflation is alive and kicking in Europe. 

What I don't get is the dollar strengthening in an inflationary cycle...this can't last.

TJeffson · Sep 12, 2014 - 6:31pm

Atlas Shrugged part 3

Opens today. Here is a list of theaters https://www.atlasshruggedmovie.com/theaters Only 254 or so nationwide. Just thought I'd toss that out there since someone mentioned Atlas Shrugged.

Hammer · Sep 12, 2014 - 6:31pm

The number of dollar

The number of dollar nominated accounts being opened at Barclays and HSBC has been unbelievable recently - so much so I heard that they are stopping such accounts from being opened - what I heard and would need confirmation. DYODD.

TJeffson · Sep 12, 2014 - 6:38pm

musing on KWN...

Why does anyone still read that site? Have they ever been right about anything? I seriously doubt they will be looting America... with 300+ million guns floating around out there. There are plenty of people that would have no problem putting a stop to them trying to loot this nation.

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