Watching The Flows

Wed, Sep 10, 2014 - 11:47am

So here we are. It's September 10 and things sure don't look any better than they did at the end of May. For that matter, things don't look much better than they did at the end of December, either. What's left? Is there any remaining hope for a rally into year end? Can the metals at least eek out a positive return for 2014?

As you know, I've been out the past two days. It was great to look away for a while but, unfortunately, I made the mistake of not completely looking away. What did I see whenever I checked? Just more of the same. With the overnight selloff back on 9/1, The Cartel Monkeys managed to break the 200-day moving average in gold and all we've seen since is Spec selling of longs and adding of shorts. Of course, The Cartel Banks have been using all of this Spec selling to cover their own naked shorts. As you know, that's by design. The Banks now thoroughly dominate these paper markets and it appears that they will continue to do so for at least the foreseeable future.

Think back to how this has all played out in 2014. Twice, Spec interest has flown into the long side of gold (and silver) and twice The Cartel Banks have acted dramatically to first cap price and then smash it back down.

First, after beginning the year at $1200, gold rallied smartly through January and February. It finally broke through and above it's primary long-term trendline on March 14 when it closed at $1382. It opened higher still on Sunday the 16th and traded as high as $1392 before the Cartel offensive began. Price was routed over the next two weeks as it fell by over $110. The Spec shorting/selling and Cartel covering/buying then continued all the way to a bottom in late may at $1240.

Then, price reversed with another rally through the primary trendline, all the way to a high of $1345 on July 10 and July 11. Another Cartel offensive was then put into effect, just as in March. Price broke on Monday, July 14 and the Spec shorting/selling combined with Cartel covering/buying has trimmed price nearly $100 since.

Allow me lay the relative position changes for you so that you can see it in action...


Spec Long 137,182 Commercial Long 182,101

Spec Short 104,959 Commercial Short 215,122

NET 32,223 NET 33,021


Spec Long 183,324 Commercial Long 164,293

Spec Short 46,510 Commercial Short 310,227

NET 136,814 NET 145,934


Spec Long 157,322 Commercial Long 159,545

Spec Short 98,181 Commercial Short 222,989

NET 59,151 NET 63,444


Spec Long 203,464 Commercial Long 135,998

Spec Short 53,443 Commercial Short 302,201

NET 150,021 NET 166,003


Spec Long 172,522 Commercial Long 134,701

Spec Short 75,643 Commercial Short 238,408

NET 96,879 NET 103,707

Obviously, it doesn't take a degree in economics or mathematics to see what is going on here. As I've discussed ad nauseam, the global price of gold is "set" by a small group of about 60 "Large Spec" (hedge fund) traders on one side and 6-8 "Commercial" (Bullion Bank) traders on the other.

  • Price rallies as funds flow to the long side. The Specs buy and buy while The Cartel caps and caps by liquidating longs and adding fresh paper shorts.
  • Eventually, the Cartel capping exhausts the buying momentum and stalls the rally. Once The Cartel gives things a downward shove, the funds begin to sell and sell while The Cartel buys and covers the very same naked shorts they had just recently added.
  • In each case, the rallies were forcibly turned once the naked gross short position of The Banks exceeded 300,000 contracts.

And look at the effort put forth by The Banks to contain these two rallies:

  • Over a period of 10 weeks to begin the year, The Cartel was able to limit the rally to only 15% by supplying the "market" with 95,000 brand new naked short contracts. That's 9.5MM ounces of make-believe paper gold or about 295 metric tonnes!
  • Over a period of just 5 weeks in June and July, The Cartel was able to limit the rally to only 7% by supplying the "market" with 79,000 brand new naked short contracts. That's 7.9MM ounces of make-believe paper gold or about 246 metric tonnes!

Finally, note that the bottom and turn in early June "coincided" with a Cartel naked short position falling back to 222,989 or almost exactly the level of naked shorts seen at the bottom of 12/31/13. What was The Cartel naked short position as of last Tuesday, 9/2? Look back up at the data above and you'll see that it was 238,408.

So, can we assume that all we need for another bottom and turn is an additional 20,000 or so of short covering by The Banks? Maybe...and we have to be awfully close. Since the last CoT survey, total open interest in gold has risen by over 12,000 contracts while price has fallen by $11. Without question, this rising OI/falling price signals fresh Large Spec momo shorting and, into this shorting, The Banks are continuing to buy and cover. The latest CoT survey was taken yesterday and the results will be released as usual on Friday. Will The Cartel gross, naked short position be back down to near 220,000? Almost certainly.

"So, what's the point of all this, Turd??" Since we've been using bullets this entire post, we might as well close with some more...

  • It's obvious that The Banks are desperate to contain price in 2014. Otherwise, why would they issue nearly 100,000 contracts of naked shorts in two such relatively short periods of time?
  • I'll tell you why...Because if they hadn't, the rallies would have extend far beyond $1392 in March and $1345 in July.
  • And if those rallies had instead reached $1500 or $1600, the virtuous cycle of TA would have invited in even more Spec buying and driven price even higher. Analysts and the media would have been forced to admit that the "bear market in metals" was over and that simply DOES NOT fit the narrative that The Fed and the other central banks want to push.

Finally, none of this is intended as sour grapes or excuse-making. Obviously if anyone knows and appreciates the extent to which The Banks control the metals, it's me. However, as we began 2014, I expected the metals to resume their bull markets and tack on fresh gains of around 25%. Though there's still over 100 days left in the year, my goals are looking increasingly unlikely and, absent some fresh catalyst to drive fund flows back into the long side of gold (and silver), it looks like I'm going to fall short.

With such staunch and desperate capping likely to impede the next rally too, what we really need is a huge jump in Comex open interest. Back in 2010, total OI was regularly 600,000+ contracts. Total OI has spent the majority of 2014 under 400,000 contracts, even reaching a multi-year low of 360,000 contracts on a couple of occasions. It seems that only by painting The Banks into a sustained retreat by driving open interest back to 500,000+ can we get price to rally toward $1500 and beyond. This will be a key metric in the weeks and months ahead. What would drive open interest higher? That's hard to predict. Far easier to predict is that the paper markets for gold (and silver) are likely to stay rangebound between $1200 and $1320 until it does.

I'll have more later today with a full podcast. We'll go over these numbers again just so that I can be confident that everyone understands the point I'm trying to make. Until then, hang in there and keep the faith. Remain patient and diligent. Recognize the "the metals markets" are farce/joke/sham that are not even remotely indicative of the true supply/demand picture for actual, physical metal and please continue to prepare accordingly.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Sep 10, 2014 - 2:46pm

I think Russia will in

I think Russia will in general relax turning screws on Ukraine if not forced prior to parliamentary elections there:


A snap Ukrainian parliamentary election to theVerkhovnaRada will be held on 26 October 2014.[1]

Anti Russian sentiment is running high in Ukraine so if Russia wants less decisive opponents in Rada it may well relax until November. Mariupol and corridor from Russia to Crimea will be there available also in winter. Besides, in winter Russia will have one extra weapon-gas/oil. If Ukraine starts to take gas from European deliveries it will invite Russian attempts to stop stealing.

It would be also good for Putin to calm EU so that they get a bit happy with some stabilization and after experiencing economic fears become even more inclined for appeasement. Crimea is already gone, parts of Donbass as well.

Hitler needed Sudetenland Germans and Czech mines and heavy industry to further increase his military potential. He took them during appeasement. Putin needs and finds the same - ethnic Russians for army, coal and metals and very important for Russia number of military plants , especially in Kharkiv region, which produces stuff for Russian army which is in principle very costly and difficult to replace.


Despite this, on 4 December 1938 there were elections in Reichsgau Sudetenland, in which 97.32% of the adult population voted for NSDAP. About a half million Sudeten Germans joined theNazi Party which was 17.34% of the total German population in Sudetenland (the average NSDAP membership participation in Nazi Germany was merely 7.85% in 1944). This means the Sudetenland was one of the most pro-Nazi regions of the Third Reich.[13] Because of their knowledge of the Czech language, many Sudeten Germans were employed in the administration of the ethnic CzechProtectorate of Bohemia and Moravia as well as in Nazi organizations (Gestapo, etc.). The most notable was Karl Hermann Frank: the SS and Police general and Secretary of State in the Protectorate.


Czechoslovakia was a major manufacturer of machine guns, tanks, and artillery, most of which were assembled in the Škoda factory and had a modern army of 35 divisions. Many of these factories continued to produce Czech designs until factories were converted for German designs. Czechoslovakia also had other major manufacturing companies. Entire steel and chemical factories were moved from Czechoslovakia and reassembled in Linz, Austria which incidentally remains a heavily industrialized sector of the country.

So I think we see some calm now until elections in Ukraine, then things will again get nasty on next level; given the setback with first wave separatists in Kharkiv Mariupol regions, there is time needed also to make preparations.

And of course I admit that Putin has all rights to do this as West ditched Russia after 1990 -ties, broke promises about NATO expansion, dealt with Russia in disrespectful manner- as Hitler had all rights to restore German dignity after Versailles and reparations.

Question remain how far will this analogy go; splitting Ukraine in two parts - that is clear, and is analogy to German occupation of Czechoslovakia Czech part in 1939.


On 16 March 1939, the GermanWehrmacht moved into the remainder of Czechoslovakia and, from Prague Castle, Hitler proclaimed Bohemia and Moravia the Protectorate of Bohemia and Moravia.

Sounds like some Donetsk Kharkiv Protectorate of Novorussia, right?

But question is , what comes next? Molotov Ribentropp Pact and invasion of Poland in September 1 , 1939. Nastily fast succession of events. Is Eastern Europe even as members of NATO as unprotected as Poland was then? I bet so.

Well, after some time though ( and that will happen with China joining victorious side and participating in division of Russia) the unlucky starters (Germans) of both WWI and WWII were beaten and occupied/humiliated.

I wonder where the division line will go between Chinese occupation zone (Yuan) and German (NATO) one in Russia (EUR) , and who else will cut a piece off in the South/Far East ( USA is right next to it) . I hope to end up in German part if I am still alive. Timetable - 2017 ( fast loss) or 2026 ( protracted fighting) = the end of the war.

So Russia is in serious trouble as they know that what has started by USA push into Ukraine has no good end planned for them. Chinese will use the situation to chop up Russia, first helping it to get weaker and more dependent on China by supporting it. A Classic.

Only problem for me is that Baltic states - as in 1939- might be devoured by Russia before attack on Poland or some other East Europe country. Belarus by that time will be part of Russia- another protectorate- here is why- and its no secret BTW in Russia/Belarus:


Alexander Lukashenko won the presidential election that took place on 19 December 2010 with 79.65%.

President of Belarus is directly elected by the people of Belarus for a five year term. Elections of the President of the Republic of Belarus are held in the united constituency comprising the whole territory of the Republic of Belarus.

So, next election is December 2015. Time to change horses. Or call early presidential elections due to...

silverflower amarula4
Sep 10, 2014 - 2:50pm

Yes, I agree, I am really surprised

about Harvey's bold predictions in his Hunter interview. Think about it: Was happens to his credibility if all that is not going to happen: Surging precious metals prcies over night because of delivery problems at Shanghai exchange. So I am really amazed about Mr. Organ's conviction. I still do have Rob Kirby's words in mind when he responded to the question from Greg Hunter when he sees the metals price suppression failing. It'll break down if/when a physical delivery tightness does occur, Mr Kirby did respond, and he expects that to happen in fall 2014. Because he allegedly "knew" of some hige physical orders being thrown onm the market.

However, all that is hard to believe after experiencing the cartel having so huge control over the metal market in recent years. But I' ve decided to play this thing until it's bitter end. I do not see any mentionable alternative other then putting my savings into hard assets like phyz. gold and silver.

Regards from Merkel country

Whitecastle123 silverflower
Sep 10, 2014 - 2:55pm

If Harvey's correct

I'm going to Disney World, if it's still there. No, make that Ambergris Caye if I can get out of the country.

Like SIM said, Everything feels pretty weird right now.

Sep 10, 2014 - 3:23pm


Sounds pretty far fetched. Does anyone have any thoughts on his track record?

Sep 10, 2014 - 3:30pm

So some bloke on the internet

says gold and silver will explode by the end of the year.

Must be true then.

Sep 10, 2014 - 3:53pm

Harvey organ

if I recall correctly, he had a problem with storage of gold at Scottia Mocatta maybe 5-6 years ago. I think he was storing it in unallocated. Just do not recall the complete details but Organ accused the bank not having his gold. or not being able to give it to him.

I have been in that vault and Sprott and the CEF/GTU group store product there. What I think the problem was was the unallocated vs allocated. But again not certain--I think some time after that Harvey O started his blog which is really a bunch of summaries from other websites and a few summations.

I do not read him much due to its just all summations and I get it during the day rather than waiting as a bunch of us do here.

When reading here you really should start at the beginning so as to get things in sequence.

Makes more sense and then everything additive is better quality.

BTW--the folks at Scottia Mocatta made an offer to me--if I could hold 2 1000 oz silver bars in my hands with arms stretched out for I think 5 minutes, they were mine. They sized me up as not being an athlete so it was ez for them. I did not even bother-62 pounds in each hand-outstretched-right.

Sep 10, 2014 - 3:53pm

In defense of Harvey

I'm not saying his predictions are going to "pan" out, but I will say this, there are few amongst us that has a more diligent ear to the ground than he...

All of us here know that something has got to give in this grand financial charade at some point (just imagine a friggin' false world where the S&P is up on a day like this). Looking at the rate that physical silver inventories are falling on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, more physical is going to have to come from somewhere to meet growing demand (see on the silver noose tightening), and soon. Where is it going to come from? Naked shorts? Rehypothecation? Yah, right!

Craig is consistent, reasonable and level-headed, and thank goodness for that, I for one will certainly take Au@1500 and Ag@25. I can also say this, Harvey's got the guts to put his mouth where his convictions are! Au@10000? Ag@200? Whoa, I'd take that as well, and would be quite happy with anything in between. The only road I can see that will lead us back to financial sanity is via free market values. I don't think the world as we know it has to collapse for that to happen, but it may.

Danforth Coxwell
Sep 10, 2014 - 4:00pm

Re: Harvey Organ..

Would it be possible to have Mr. Organ as a guest on A2A.? If you could include Dr. Jim Willie in the broadcast, I would be in heaven!!!!

Sep 10, 2014 - 4:04pm

Harvey Organ is ballsy to say the least

He won't be the first or last person to make such a claim about gold & silver exploding in price or the terminal state of the current financial system. It's been a long time coming for PM stackers. We thought in 2008 this was it. Now things are so bearish and bleak, that we're to the point where we don't believe it's ever going to end. Well my friends - the revaluation won't be happening in paper gold - but the true, physical form. If you've been stacking all this time, why worry then?

Ned Braden SilverX3
Sep 10, 2014 - 4:35pm

Meanwhile, life goes on, expenses go on

all payable in FRNs. This really s**ks

Sep 10, 2014 - 4:39pm

Re: Organ

Come on everyone...just another charlatan.

Stop following the lemmings and falling off the cliff. The fact of the matter is NO ONE knows what will transpire and when.

Being an analyst these days is extraordinarily difficult due to the complete control central planners have over asset prices. This is no longer a free market driven by natural market participants and fundamentals. Trying to forecast is a waste of time due to lack of precedence.

Sep 10, 2014 - 4:47pm


Troll or no troll, I find your relentless defeatism quite tiresome...

"The fact of the matter is NO ONE knows what will transpire and when."

Of course, no one knows anything with certainty, except maybe 1+1=2.

Not knowing is not a license to stop thinking or anticipating.

If one is walking blindfolded toward a cliff...

NO ONE 'knows'... ?


Sep 10, 2014 - 4:52pm

Chinese UnionPay Credit Card in Europe

ZeroHedge today --

Russian authorities wanted to decrease the financial market’s dependence on SWIFT since the introduction of the first U.S. sanctions, when international payment systems Visa and MasterCard denied services to some Russian banks owned by blacklisted individuals.

According to Shuvalov, Russia has been also discussing establishment of an independent ratings agency with China. Concrete proposals will be made by the end of 2014, he said.

As regards China’s payment system UnionPay cooperation with the yet-to-be-established Russian national payment system, Shuvalov said that UnionPay is ready for a full-scale collaboration and will provide all infrastructural capacities for that.

From Prague, today --

China wants to flood Eastern Europe with its credit card. Its exclusive UnionPay card is used by 2.5 billion people. Expansion into Central and Eastern Europe started TODAY, in the middle of Prague, with the participation of Chinese bankers and the Chinese ambassador first launched acceptance of UnionPay credit cards. Hungary, Slovakia and Romania will follow soon.

Sep 10, 2014 - 4:58pm

Harvey's prediction

If there is actually so little silver left in the COMEX, why then does not a hedge fund (or, for that matter, anyone with a spare half billion $$$) purchase contracts for somewhat around that amount and demand delivery? That would force default. Isn't that, in effect, what the Hunt Brothers tried in 1980, failing because the US had a huge supply of stored silver, now absent? Doesn't make sense.

Sep 10, 2014 - 5:01pm


Twilight Zone intro.

I feel like I've been living in it for 3 years.

Sep 10, 2014 - 5:17pm


That is what I keep asking... if gold and silver physical stocks are so low why doesnt someone like Eric Sprot who certainly has the means and the motivation step in, buy it all and demand delivery. Why? If the chinese had double the gold they say they do and they plan on some grand unveiling this year do you think a hand full of Asian politicians could keep that secret from the world and NOT tell every relative and friend they have to buy as much gold as possible? Come on folks....

Sep 10, 2014 - 5:18pm

congressional budget office

with revised long term forecast--=its bottom line:

Us is on an unsustainable debt deficit situation unless we see economic policy change.

It points to Medicare, Medicaid Social Security and Interest all taking higher amounts of GDP into the future hence rate of increase of deficits increases. Basically thats all the report today said which is what was said a month ago which was said a year ago etc and the debt committees said it 4 years ago--

so one day the system breaks.

Sep 10, 2014 - 5:31pm

@Levon Re: That is what I keep asking...

Are you assuming a fair market world? If some average joe blow billionaire tried to pull the rug out from under tptb, do you think that would be free of consequences for said joe blow (even one of the stature of the Admiral)?

Are you assuming that the majority of people actually think for themselves? If this were so, no amount of paper manipulation and media misinformation would suffice to stem demand... Alas, people in general only see value if and when everyone else does.

Sep 10, 2014 - 5:32pm

why not break the comex?

IIRC Sprott specifically said something to the effect of not wanting to wind up dead - worrying about starting his car or something.

(Implying a larger than usual gasoline ignition incident.)

Besides the fact - you wouldn't be allowed to break it. They changed the rules when the Hunt brothers did. Today you would be labeled a trrrrrst, have everything stolen from you, and then get killed. If you tried to break up the deliveries amongst a group they would probably be able to use RICO or conspiracy or some other bs against you. Even if they did deliver some the process of getting the phyz is (from what I have read) so onerous that it is almost impossible. TF has had a guest that did take physical delivery and it took (IIRC) more than 6 months and constant follow up.

eta: I think you also have to me an approved or accredited member, somewhat like taking delivery from the GLD.

Sep 10, 2014 - 5:37pm

china's gold stash

Reading a report today suggesting that the chinese golad hoard is ~ 4k tons by the end of the year. (I personally think it is 10-20k tons). However if the alternative media consensus is that it is smaller than the 8k tons supposedly held by the u.s. I have to wonder why they would disclose it?

My thinking is that I (if I were the chinese .gov) would not want to make an announcement that I have gone from 6th place to 2nd in gold holdings. What good does that really do? (Not a rhetorical question - I am interested in other's thoughts.)

Wouldn't it make more sense to wait until they have 8.2k tons of kilo bars to show the world? Become the undisputed gold heavyweight champion of the world - have the trump card of "well, we showed you ours, now show us yours". Maybe that is to "in your face" for world politics?

AlienEyes Marchas45
Sep 10, 2014 - 6:03pm

There is hope....

If Harvey O. is right, the gold / silver ratio will be about 50 : 1 (it is now about 66 : 1). In my view, any major upside move by PM's would include some movement towards the historical 16 : 1 ratio of gold and silver. That's not to say we will ever see 16 : 1 again. We won't.


Disclaimer :

Please note that every time the commander & chump or one of his professional lying ass-hats says something insufferably stupid, I am inclined to throw back a few shots of tequila to mitigate my pain which causes “my view” to be subject to occasional blurriness.

Lamenting Laverne
Sep 10, 2014 - 6:55pm

How about showing a little respect?

Harvey Organ is not just "some bloke on the internet" and he is certainly not a "charlatan"!

He has been recording the "handywork" of criminals for years and years - daily, diligently and meticulously - and he has been presenting his results at no cost for our free evaluation.

He has compiled enough evidence over time to get him and Adrian Douglas an invitation to testify at the CFTC - again on behalf of all us suckers, who can otherwise do little to help ourselves.

The testimony was taped and spread wide and far - and even if it was a bit forced in delivery due to little time allocated to bring the message across - it still helped boosting morale among all those investors, who felt like no-one ever got though to the regulators and who felt no-one gave a damn about the corruption. It is not Harvey Organ's fault that the CFTC turned out to be just as corrupt as the people, they are supposed to police.

He has talked about / predicted a Comex default before, if I remember correctly, so I am not saying his bold prediction will come to pass this time. What I do know is that times sure are tense right now, and we see some confirmation of previous predictions by Jim Willie and others on an almost daily basis, so Organ's sentiments of sudden changes in the nearer future may not be all that crazy after all.

In any case - all I am saying is that I think his diligent work at the possible benefit to all of us demands a bit more respect.

Sep 10, 2014 - 7:08pm


Ok, fair enough. But those predictions are seriously extreme.

If gold gets to $10,000 and silver to $200 in the next 3 1/2 months I'll eat my hat. And shoes. And pretty-much everything else within reach.

I'll even throw the goldfish down my gob. Mmmm.

I'll need to buy a hat first, but I should just about be able to afford one then .

Lamenting Laverne
Sep 10, 2014 - 7:30pm

I agree they are quite extraordinary

and I am not sure of the wisdom in making such predictions anyway - thanks for taking the message in the spirit it was intended.

But please don't eat your goldfish - if Harvey is right. My goldfish is right this very minute sitting at the bottom of a quarantine tank - motionless and not eating - and I am writing tonight partially to not think about the very real possibility that he will be gone tomorrow. One Goldfish death this half-year should be quite enough.....

However, should he be right - I will look forward to watching the video of you eating hat, shoes and pretty much everything within reach - sans Goldfish - with relish ;-))

Sep 10, 2014 - 7:45pm


video on youtube 31st december.

will post up a link.

Sep 10, 2014 - 7:51pm


All I know about gold fish is "belly up is bad"

Hope your guy is mobile come morning


Sep 10, 2014 - 8:37pm

Eating goldfish

I knew a dyslexic bloke once who ate a goldfish, he said it tasted like carp.

Lamenting Laverne
Sep 10, 2014 - 9:31pm

Thanks Silver

The last time I moved them, I lost another one (the first one). This time, I have been trying very hard not to stress them. Cover up, when people were messing around in the room. When I drove off with them it was slower than a hearst.

He seemed to be doing fine the first while, but then yesterday he was just lying on the bottom most of the time, and today when I nudged him out of his hiding place - the big one (Koi) started stalking him/nibbling at him right away, which is a sure sign he is about to check out.

So I separated them, so he at least could die in peace, I have given him fresh water (treated against the chlorine), his own oxygen pump and made the water ever so slightly saline - but I think it is stress and possibly old age. It looks as if he has been stunted before I got him, so he would probably never grow to full age potential.

I feel absolutely ridiculous with all the evil going on in the world - and here I am obsessing about a Goldfish. But I really find it difficult to just see him waste away - and there is nothing I can do about it.


Just went to check on him again, and he was on his side - a few twitches - up to the surface one more time - back on the side almost upside down. Sat with him for a while. He is gone now.

@imfd: That is not so weird - a goldfish is a member of the carp family - so it makes a lot of sense it should taste like carp. I have long wished to build an aquaponics system, considering grass carps, because it is so neat they are vegetarians, but I read somewhere that they are absolutely impossible to de-bone, so Tilapia is probably a better bet. Haven't got the space for that yet though, but a girl is allowed to dream ay?

Good night Y'all.

Sep 10, 2014 - 9:43pm


That was my little joke, dyslexic, carp/crap, or is that a double bluff you are pulling on me ! doh !

Dyna mo hum
Sep 10, 2014 - 9:49pm


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