Riding The Line - Update

Thu, Sep 4, 2014 - 10:23am

This post was written on July 14...nearly two months ago. I'm reposting it today for public distribution. I'm not doing this to pat myself on the back or to inspire new subscriptions. Instead, I offer this post as even further proof of the degree to which the paper metal "markets" are manipulated and controlled by the bullion banks, at the behest of the central banks. It also should give you optimism that this current beatdown scheme has nearly run its course.

"Now There's A Big Surprise"

By, Turd Ferguson

Monday, July 14, 2014 at 9:58 a.m.

It took almost a month but, to no one's surprise, The Cartel Banks have finally come after gold today. Apparently the weekly close above $1331 was too much for them to take, much like the $1380+ close back on March 14. So, now what? How far will price fall before The Leg Hounds finish their business?

If you've been around here for a while, you know about The Mississippi Leg Hounds. As Cousin Eddie says, "once they lay into ya, you'd best let 'em finish their business." As mentioned in Friday's podcast, The Cartel Banks added over 100,000 contracts NET SHORT in just five weeks...all in a vain attempt to contain a measly 7% price rally. In just plain old, naked short, fresh paper, they added over 79,000 contracts or nearly 250 metric tonnes of paper metal! WHY?!? Because they had to contain the rally before the charts turned decidedly bullish....and if the charts turned bullish, investment demand would return...and if investment demand returns, from where will the gold come?

After the huge rally of June 19, The Banks were left playing defense. It played out as you can see below:

With the Friday close solidly above the critical $1331 breakout level that had been defended so ardently for over three weeks, it was clearly decided over the weekend that the RAID would begin today. There is absolutely no doubt about it and this is standard Cartel operating procedure. The most recent example of this was back in March when, after having failed at defending the $1380 level on 3/14, The Cartel pounced almost immediately on Sunday 3/16 and the proceeded to work over price for the next two weeks. By the end of the first week, here's what they had managed to do to the charts:

After applying steady pressure for a second week, they'd managed to drop price over $100 and back to the always-important $1280 level:

So how does this relate to today? I've been warning since late June that The Bad Guys would be coming. Getting price back below the main trendline was too important and that is clearly their goal now. Where is that line today? See for yourself:

I don't think there's any doubt (and I would be totally surprised if it didn't) that gold is headed to $1280 and the primary downtrend line that we've been following all year. In fact, I wouldn't even be surprised by a dip to the $1260 area. If you are looking to trade/stack, that's what I would be waiting for.

As this relates to silver, the main line on the daily chart is way the heck down near $19.75. It's going to tale a lot of work for them to get it there but it's not out of the question. IF they pull this off, I would be all over it! The main, weekly trendline is even farther down, near $18, and below most miners' cost of production. In my opinion, the long-term trend in silver has undeniably flipped and any dip back toward the old trendline is a buying opportunity.

OK, it's almost 11:00 EDT so I'm going to stop right here. You key takeaways should be these:

  • This is completely and 100% expected and predictable.
  • The selling will continue until price gets back near or below the main trendline.
  • The Criminal Bastard Cartel Banks remain 100% in charge of the paper market. Anyone who denies "gold manipulation" is either a silly, inexperienced fool or a paid shill and disinfo agent.

I will, of course, have a complete summary of the day's events with a podcast later today and I'll be adding comments to this thread in between. Please be sure to check back often.


September 4, 10:00 AM EDT UPDATE:

As you can see below, since this article was originally posted, price indeed has fallen back toward the main trendlines. Not only that, price is "riding the line" as support for both metals, just as we said it would:

Gold has indeed bottomed between $1260 and $1280 as I have a low this week in the Dec14 contract of $1262. Silver has fallen past $19.75 to $19.20 only because the decline has taken so long to play out. With time, the long-term trendlines keep falling so silver had to fall an extra 50¢ just to catch up with it.

Ultimately, what does this mean going forward? Will prices continue to fall from here, as some are quick to suggest? I say no! This entire, manufactured decline from July 14 has now nearly run its course. Prices will reverse soon and begin to recover. The first level to watch in gold is $1320. After that, $1345. For silver, $20.60 remains a key pivot point.

Again, it is important that you understand this...If the selloff from $1345 was predictable, then the rally into year end is predictable, too. Keep the faith and persevere. Recognize this latest Cartel action for what it is and position yourself for the higher prices ahead.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Pounds of Money
Sep 4, 2014 - 10:28am



Sep 4, 2014 - 10:32am



4 oz
Sep 4, 2014 - 10:33am

Just checkin' to see If

Just checkin' to see If anything is going on!

Sep 4, 2014 - 10:38am


For $10 a month you get an incredible amount of material - a podcast and a post most days, as well as the A2A - we get access to great guests and TF asks the questions we provide. There is nothing else like it and the value is immense.

Sep 4, 2014 - 10:47am

New Subscribers

My guess is you will lose subscribers with this post. But it's your call.

Sep 4, 2014 - 10:56am

Out of line/repost with some

Out of line/repost with some changes; currently looks dire:

As long as bankers rule, and they do in debt controlled world, Russia will go for war whatever we do -as Hitler did- provided there is clever support from China and de facto acceptance by the USA ( NATO) and in the end Russia will lose the wars it will start and be divided between China, Germany and may be others. Big territory, no people, lot of resources, no technology, only nukes. Weak country, weaker then Germany in WWII, i would say.

That is why Russian reaction is so hard. What was started by the USA in Ukraine, and towards which Russia reacted sharply, IS EXISTENTIAL THREAT TO RUSSIA. Its the beginning of an end. I have no idea however if they have any chance to get around it. Bankers from USA (Rocks) and China (Roths+ Chinese) are dead serious it won't.

That may take 10 years , with initial Russian success, especially in Ukraine. May be some Baltic nations will be eliminated in the process, who cares.

Now when China will finalize its conquest of Russia and establish reserve currency position, say after 2026..or 2038...then it will go after USA seriously. That is where the USA will finally not feel safe on domestic soil. May take another 10 years or more. It is a bit similar sequence to WWI and WWII - both of them were required to remove Great Britain (Roths) from throne and install the USA (Rocks,Morgans). In this sense we are going to see WWI first. It has already started. In new surrounding with nukes around. In WWI ( real) they used weapons of mass destruction. In WWII- no. Will it be repeated?

Russia is fighting a lost game here. And Putin serves his masters. He was installed, always remember that. Like pope Francis. USA pushes Russia to war as its in its interests and Europe is not sovereign as USA controls its defense. And money supply via reserve currency. Its perfect setup for the USA and China bankers as long as they are in high level agreement that Europe and Russia MUST NEVER JOIN FORCES.

Later it comes back to the USA soil but that is may be 30 years from now..

Get ready to militarized and autocratic world. As we are reaching peak debt, it may end also with gradual elimination of bankers. Then its important where to park capital as debt and money disappears- like Catholic church/monasteries was used to store largely useless gold for centuries during 5-12th centuries.

Sep 4, 2014 - 11:04am

Is gold going to $1000...+ or - 5%?...

Is this possible?...Look & see what Bill Downey says!...


Bag Of Gold

Sep 4, 2014 - 11:04am

Trendline slope . . .

The trendline slope is down the last three years. The cartel has fought tooth and nail to keep the PMs glued into the range around that downward slope.

I see no reason for them to stop selling paper now to keep this trend going. Their "money" to do so is free, and why would they let loose now?

The PMs will stay locked up until the comex and paper PMs as we know them fail. And, they intend to keep them from failing until war and martial law is in force.

We will be waiting for what happens after we come out the other side of this controlled demolition of the western financial system.

Sep 4, 2014 - 11:38am

Trendline slope...

Your assumptions don't take into account that physical Au and Ag, not paper, must still be available at "market prices".

Also, Turd's post above shows that we are above, not below, this trendline.

If we are to fear some Omnipotent paper manufacturer, then why are we not below the trendline? Why isn't Au or Ag at zero? Why hasn't a Central Bank purchased all physical Gold and Silver everywhere?

Since mine shut-ins affect the stream of physical being dug up that is subsequently used to suppress price then should these paper manufacturer's drive all mines out of production? Will that affect their ability to manufacture paper while maintaining a physical market?

It seems there are limits within the matrix........hmmmmmmm

Morpheus: Asking The Hard Questions

If paper manufacturing equated to Omnipotence then we would all be owned by Gideon Gono...

Bongo Jim
Sep 4, 2014 - 11:51am

Ride it out

Traveling Wilburys End Of The Line
Sep 4, 2014 - 11:53am

The longer we stay stuck in 1200-1400 range

We will ride out of and above any down trend lines you can draw because we simply can't go any lower - whether due to floor being set by paper traders or physical off take. Eventually we fight out of this range as traders and institutions see the tremendous value in the Gold sector and this thing takes off and creates the virtuous cycle that Turd often alludes to. The only way this thing lasts forever is if you have lower prices year after year. However, as we've witnessed in the last 3 years that there's a limit to the downside. There's myriad reasons why we haven't gone to new lows. No need to enumerate them all as we're all well acquainted with each and every single one.

Remember this - Any physical commodity market that has run out of sellers with strong fundies will attract value buyers and the tide turns eventually. It's just a matter of time.

1200 was the floor in 2013

1300 is the floor in 2014

You get the idea going forward

Sep 4, 2014 - 12:00pm


financial survival.com has a piece by Nenners guy Gurwitz.

Says we are close to a tradable bottom.

He too has been calling, and delaying a big turn up--TA and cycles work when you do not have a Central bank or group of central banks working to manage all markets.

ancientmoney CPE
Sep 4, 2014 - 12:01pm

CPE re: trendline slope . . .

"Your assumptions don't take into account that physical Au and Ag, not paper, must still be available at "market prices".


Yes, they do.

I said they will contain prices until comex/paper PMs fail. When phyzz is gone, they fail. Until then, they control the price.

That having been said, they do not want to hasten the loss of phyzz until they are "ready" to take off the paper shackles. That is why they don't smash prices to zero.

However, when the paper PMs fail, then the value of holding SLV, GLD, comex PM options, etc. all will go to ZERO.

Sep 4, 2014 - 12:14pm


I'm glad we agree then, but to be clear a downward sloping trendline eventually reaches zero. Because the mines are/will shut down long before then, the physical market is underpinning price along with Chinese and other Central Bank buying.

Since we've reached a point where it's difficult to take it lower because of physical availability I would say Au & Ag are at the point where they are now a free call option on the failure of this seeming Omnipotence of paper manufacturers...

In other words, little downside, unlimited upside.....

Dr. P. Metals
Sep 4, 2014 - 12:23pm

Gold in euros

I wonder if that chart is telling us anything?

Mr. Fix
Sep 4, 2014 - 12:41pm

Just riding the train to the end of the line:

I know I'm not stating anything new here, but I don't read the charts, I gave it up when I realized the extent of the manipulation. We are range bound at approximately the cost of digging it up until the system implodes, and then, initially speaking “of course”, it will fall off a cliff, because paper promises will be deemed worthless.

The Western banks are losing their grasp on power, I'm beginning to think that their grand plans for a “New World order” are starting to come apart at the seams, as their printing press is only valuable for as long as people will accept their worthless notes.

Even for the vast majority of “government goons”, their loyalty will last as long as their last paycheck.

I think the Western banking cartels attempt at diverting attention from themselves for the crimes they have and are committing, isn't working as well in “the electronic age” as it did in the past.

They used to be able to pull their scams with “no one waking up”, this time it's different.

Admittedly, most of the populace is pretty brain-dead, but most of the worldwide intelligence agencies know exactly what's going on, and who is to blame, which is why most of the world is aligning against the Western banking cartel.

I know they can make a mess of things, as they will inevitably adopt a “scorched earth” policy,

but in the end, they can be defeated, they are outnumbered.

Sep 4, 2014 - 12:43pm


You make too much sense sometimes. Bankers rule the world--hidden bankers that answer to nobody. The Rocks and Roths are as simple a theory as any out there. what was Occums razor? ... the principle of parsimony or elegance or simplicity? "among competing hypotheses, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected. Other, more complicated solutions may ultimately prove correct, but—in the absence of certainty—the fewer assumptions that are made, the better." It doesn't get much simpler that--Rocks vs Roths. West vs East. But in this case, it is not good vs evil, but evil vs evil, hidden from view, struggling for control of all. But the evidence is in the news every day. That gets my bible thumping impulse in gear, but you have all heard the Armageddon story before.

Sep 4, 2014 - 12:53pm

@ancient money

I said they will contain prices until comex/paper PMs fail. When phyzz is gone, they fail. Until then, they control the price.

That having been said, they do not want to hasten the loss of phyzz until they are "ready" to take off the paper shackles. That is why they don't smash prices to zero.

However, when the paper PMs fail, then the value of holding SLV, GLD, comex PM options, etc. all will go to ZERO.



Sep 4, 2014 - 1:06pm


$18.75 here we come. Probably not today, but likely tomorrow.

Unholy Dalliance ancientmoney
Sep 4, 2014 - 1:18pm

'However, when the paper PMs

'However, when the paper PMs fail, then the value of holding SLV, GLD, comex PM options, etc. all will go to ZERO.'

This has been my argument, at least as far as COMEX futures contracts are concerned. There will come a day, possibly a day in the near future, when CME will announce no gold and silver futures available. Spot only contracts: but there will not be metal available for which those contracts can be 'stopped'. It will all have 'gone'. This is not my prediction but one made by Jim Sinclair on 23 July 2013 - over a year ago! I have posted his email to subscribers twice now on TFMR. I won't do it a third time. Instead, you'll have to find it yourselves on his website (www.jsmineset.com).

There is an inevitability to all this which Turd doesn't overtly talk about but it can be gleaned from the language of his post above. It is the language of patience and the language of believing the 'paper-pushers' cannot trade an basket empty of gold and silver specie forever. We are forever being told about the so-called 'Ruben doctrine' of putting off the inevitable (catastrophe) for one more day, one more week, one more month. Well, here you see it in action every day and yet… the inevitable (catastrophe) is nearly upon them!

I think they wanted to make a huge fool of Jim Sinclair who has been 'a thorn in their side' (an expression they love to use about those whom they don't control) for a long time. That doesn't make his prediction silly or wrong. There are many strands of deduction which will lead you to the conclusion that the days of PM futures trading, perhaps on ALL commodities exchange are numbered.

We know that real 'spot' exchanges/markets are springing up in China, Indonesia, Hong Kong (as a separate entity to mainland China) and elsewhere in the far east. Trading 'spot' contracts will be the new norm (actually an old norm whose practice is being revived). That is how gold and silver were traded, to my personal knowledge, here in London up until the late 1960s. Silver was traded using spot contracts and most metal was shunted round a vault somewhere in 'The City' day after day. Most of it never left - BUT IT WAS ACTUAL METAL TRADED - NOT paper contracts. I have mentioned this before but I bet no one has taken any notice. Spot contracts will now become the norm once again - slowly to begin with - but gaining momentum as more exchanges switch: the western exchanges will be dragged into switching from futures kicking and screaming but the choice for them will be simple: change to 'spot' or go out of business.

Sep 4, 2014 - 1:23pm

Miners on the Verge of Collapse...again

HUI in for a swift kick in the ass as metals now leading them back down.

This is going to get ugly.

Sep 4, 2014 - 1:27pm

Nobody is commenting today on the currency markets

Anybody watching the dollar and euro markets today? The futures volume on both currencies is very large and probably sets the table for the kick off of the Nato meetings. You really can't comment on precious metals today without commenting on the currencies today first and foremost. The volumes on these currencies need to be watched closely over the next few trading days.

Dr. P. Metals
Sep 4, 2014 - 1:32pm

yes, just dumped my miners

Can't take the risk it just goes all in below apeshit retard now...fuck!

Sep 4, 2014 - 1:54pm

Miner's getting trashed

y'all know what happens to the gold price tomorrow~

Sep 4, 2014 - 2:07pm

Dr. Jerome

It has to be basically simple to work..and its quite logical, is it not?

Gold prices...Roths ( who regulate Chinese demand its called here) sell gold when prices move up; that is,as long as Rocks behave, USD will not suffer another 2011 confidence crisis; Rocks are behaving by allowing Obama ( Rocks kind of Repubs in the USA) to act in Roth interests. Congress was put in place during 2011 debt ceiling crisis when gold moved up to 1800 and Rocks caved in. After that, in 2012 Roth bought stake in Rocks family wealth management trust and Jacob Rothschild is on its Board of directors! Unimaginable for last >100 years.

Roths are swing capacity in gold; they have both gold and cash enough; they can steer the market; and they do it with physical gold, not paper as many here try to believe; for Roths, at this stage, gold is just an instrument in achieving their global goals of resurrection.

As we have seen, they even pre-signal or signal expected actions to parties; gold is taken down- time for Putin to act; Gold goes up- time for USA to act; as long as both increase EU Russia tensions with their actions. So now its Putin time.

ISIS may serve some purpose but key game is played in Eurasia, as many had predicted, not mentioning bankers, though, hiding it all in sophisticated theories while its all about continuing banker control over the world...as reserve currency moves, so does the control center. And it does indeed move every 100 years or so.

Remembering the bible one of the points is that accumulating too much sin in one place may be harmful to it. So the need to move proactively, plan ahead, to fool the God/evade its wrath. Additional motivation. I guess all true bankers agree on this, which unites them even if they fight each other.

Yes and its evil vs evil. There is NO GOOD SIDE in this conflict.

Sep 4, 2014 - 2:24pm

Please elaborate

What will happen to gold tomorrow?

Data driven conclusions need only apply.

Sep 4, 2014 - 2:33pm

Check yourself

Getting emotional usually causes one to make bad decisions.

Like selling all of your miners.

On the site we targeted the gap on the $HUI at 225/226 months ago. Looks like we are going to close that gap today/tomorrow.

I'll be buying options tomorrow.

Sep 4, 2014 - 2:50pm

@Dr. P. Metals

"So face the fact, I had to sell..."

Is this what capitulation sounds like?

Sep 4, 2014 - 2:51pm

Please oh please


The internet is a bad place to express emotion. So when I read tirades laced with all caps, I get the picture of someone pounding away at their keyboard ready to snap. Do whatever you like concerning your holdings, I really don't care one way or the other.

And yes, this is all bullshit. It's driving normal people to the point of insanity.

Dr. P. Metals
Sep 4, 2014 - 2:57pm

Tis true

I dislike when others all-caps, so I shouldn't. My apologies...and yes, this is all insanity now...it is mind boggling how we all got here...


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