Gold & 2nd Term US Presidents

Sun, Aug 24, 2014 - 7:25pm

Did you know that there is an (alleged) cycle in the price of gold which approximates 8 years in length. Here it is:

Since gold is in a bear market, or recently was in a bear phase, it would appear to be prudent to look at the downwaves of this cycle in the past. Then those periods can be compared with the downwave of 2012-2014.

So for a start let's look at the 1970s 8 year cycle bottom:

Next came the 1980s bottom:

This major low came in a few months after the idealized time. It was preceded by a secondary size low which came 2 years earlier, and the rally between the lows was sharp and significant.

The next low came in the early 1990s:

Once again a low 1 and 2 years [prior to the main low. The main low came in "late".

The following low came here:

A pre-low is visible 18 months prior. Note that the absolute low this time came prior to the idealized low, and the later low was a higher retest. The higher retest set up serious bullishness following it's completion. After this low gold went into it's most recent substantial uptrend.

Whether this rise is secular or cyclic is open to conjecture, although many commentators insist the 2000s gold bull was/is a secular bull, which secular bull trend many assume may not be completed and resumption is assumed. I myself think that that particular view is bull because everything is cyclic in some way or other. To me, the gold bull of 2000-2011 was simply another 7-9 year bull cycle swing which lasts for half the cycle length and is inevitably followed by the return swing. The return swing downwards in 2008 was suppressed which raised the starting point of the following upswing out of the 2009 low. This downswing is making up for the relative shortness of the last one. The "secular bull"downswing retracement is now becoming quite mature and the rallies can be expected to show surprising liveliness, hurting late bears during the bottoming period, but failing to show prolonged follow through to further upside.

Let's get back to the bottoms of this cycle. Next wave ....

There was an 8 year cycle bottom along the way during the gold bull:

At the above bottom, the early low also appeared, but when the "main low" came later, it failed to break the "pre" low, and a series of higher bottoms formed. Following this gold began to rise in value at quite a fast rate.

However a top formed and the 8 year cycle turned down once again.

We are fishing about for an end to this major 8yr wave with it's 3-4 yr downswing at the moment. Though calls for super low swings and for super bull swings (at the same time!) are beginning to emerge as they always do from the must-make-big-name-to-achieve-breakthrough pundit business, not to mention the retail bullion sales business who are naturally hoping upon hope for an end to the bear before all their clients are gone while at the same time keeping a long term bullish face and improving terms (lower premia over spot) towards their remaining clientele. I have found that it is wise to look dispassionately at the data and close my ears to whatever conversational "rhubarb" is floating around.

Here is how it looks with this particular idealized cycle superimposed for reference:

So we can see that the habits of 2nd term Presidents are still intact so far. Being such clever people with clever advisors, they have conjured up via totally innovational concepts and practices exactly the same results as the previous clever presidents' advisors did before them ,and before them , and so on ad nauseum.

So this makes it appear that the gold low is not yet upon us, and another 12 months could be required to make ultimate low for this 8 year downswing.

But not every 8 year downswing is equal. Remember those 2nd year presidents were only "in" for some of the downwaves. Here are the late 20th century and early 21st century US Presidents:

Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama have been elected president twice during the period shown in the gold price charts here. This is year 2 of the second 4 year term, or year 6 of tenure for these dual incumbents.

I leave it to readers to consider which downwaves are the important waves to focus upon based upon who was "in" and for how long. For example, in some years the pre-bottom was higher or lower than it was in other years. This also requires to be taken into account. You have the charts here so this can be readily evaluated.

If all of the 8 year cycle waves, similar and dissimilar were to be overplotted, what might it look like? Here is the chart which takes a bit of careful scrutiny to catch the times and places where they tend to do the same things, and the other times and places where they tend to "disagree" with each other:

Note that the variation between separate lows has been "normalized here by using logarithmic data for the gold price. it is essentially a percentage ratio chart of gold rather than the exact chart. Also note that, if this plays out the same again, (and for sure it won't do that so neatly) but if it ends up looking similar, there are two opportunities for the price of gold to make seriously determined attempts to test the decade trading range lower limits before setting off for the upper side of this long term trading range. "Moonshots" come after the retesting process is completed, and it is my opinion that until then, while big moves up and down will be seen, the thing that goldbugs hope for deep in their hearts will come after the bottoming process has had another low printed, whether this exceeds the low already made is of no importance, it is the need for another half yearly retest that must be satisfied.

And for the bearish of mind who latch onto the message "another low is coming!!" please look to the difference between the different historic downwaves for this cycle, and also the presence of something called "higher lows" which can satisfy a cyclic bearish period just as well when appropriate.

What I see mostly is the probability for two separate "weak periods" during which I might hedge holdings, and at the end of which I would probably buy, should they come to pass.

This leaves the issue of total aggregate global leverage, or to put it another way, maximum expected volatility for swings both upwards and downwards. Gold has certainly seen a significant downswing already, prior to the trading range of the past year or so, and if the swing gets pushed a great distance one way, the return stroke may reasonably be expected to exhibit some similar characteristics. However excluding all the other factors,of which there are undeniably a great number, the habitual behaviour of these powerful administrations is what it is, and they can be assumed to continue to indulge in modern day versions of exactly what their predecessors did before them.

Have a nice weekend everybody!

Argentus Maximus

The author posts daily commentary on the gold and silver markets in the TFMR forum: The Setup For The Big Trade. More information about the author & his work can be found here: RhythmNPrice.

About the Author


Aug 25, 2014 - 10:01pm

Harvey's Up (TFMR)

Harvey's Up!

  • GoldCore: Overnight, CME Group Inc., the world’s largest futures market, halted all of its Globex electronic trading markets, including gold and silver, for four hours due to a “technical glitch.” All other Globex electronic trading markets, including U.S. Treasury’s, oil, gold and U.S. stock indexes were affected with many markets having order routing problems. A note on the CME Group website said "CME Globex markets will Pre-open at 20:30 Central Time and Open at 21:00 Central Time. All day and session orders, including GTDs with today's trade date will be canceled. All GTCs that have been acknowledged will remain working." Earlier, trading was suspended indefinitely. Any day orders that brokerages attempted to file and any orders that were filled, dated today were canceled. The problem may be related to one of the exchange's trading engines but the exchange was still working to identify the extent of the damage according to a CME analyst. This is not the first time that this has happened. The CME halted trading for some futures contracts for more than 90 minutes on April 8 due to “technical issues.”
  • Jim Rickards: Listening to mainstream market commentary on television and reading the financial press leaves one with the impression that the economic recovery is gaining strength and that stock market indices, at or near all-time highs, will go higher still. The litany of market happy talk is impressive. The unemployment rate has dropped to 6.1%, down about 4 percentage points from its peak, and is expected to go lower in the months ahead. The economy created about 230,000 jobs per month in the first half of 2014, which brings the increase in jobs to nine million since the economic recovery began in mid-2009. Interest rates remain low, which supports high asset valuations in stocks and housing. Inflation is tame and expectations about future inflation are well anchored. To hear the stock market bulls tell the story, all is right with the world. But all is not right. In fact, the fundamentals of the U.S. economy are in awful condition and are getting worse. Almost everything about the happy talk story is superficial, and falls apart under scrutiny. There is an alternative narrative of bad news that is seldom discussed on mainstream business channels but is well known to analysts. When these adverse trends are taken into account one conclusion in inescapable. The stock market and economic fundamentals are on a collision course.
  • Jim Rogers: To put together a competing world reserve currency and develop an alternative banking system, the BRICs might consider throwing India out of the equation, Jim Rogers said. India has been said to be the stumbling block in establishing the new world bank. “India and Brazil have big (national) debts. Russia is not a big debtor and has big international reserves,” Rogers noted, pivoting to Russian advantages in the interview. “Russia has a freely convertible currency and none of the others have a freely convertible currency.” Jim Rogers thinks Russia should spend its time courting suitors in its own neighborhood, however. “If I were Russia I would be more interested in selling to Asia than South America.” The leaders of Russia, India, Brazil, China and South Africa were in meetings ending July 17 to bring together plans to create a $100 billion bank to compete with the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. The planed bank is a piece in a larger puzzle to provide a global alternative to Western dominance of the financial system. This has been a stated goal of Russia and China, both of whom have engaged in trade deals that eschew the use of the US dollar.
  • The Wealth Watchman: PSLV has certain characteristics that make it a bit unique among similar closed-ended funds, or ETFs. One such characteristic, is that the mechanism for selling your units (shares), and taking delivery of physical metal is easier compared to other products, as the minimum threshold for doing so is lower than SLV or GLD. Secondly, its selling point isn’t necessarily that it tracks the paper silver price, as SLV does. In other words, if Comex silver says the spot price is $18 per oz., you won’t likely find the price of PSLV tracking it lower, as SLV does. PSLV is an easy access point for big money positions to get into silver, as it now owns nearly 50 million oz. of it, representing one of the largest privately-owned stockpiles of silver on earth. Oftentimes(but not always) when the silver price is taken artificially lower in extreme cases, a premium above spot develops on PSLV’s shares, and starts to trend higher. The reason this is true, is that PSLV’s owners are holding onto their shares, and are inclined to add to their position on silver weakness, not sell. This ownership of “strong handed” investors, leads to a shortage in units available for sale for silver in great size, especially if silver metal is becoming harder to acquire on the open market. Which leads me to the indicator I’ve been watching for weeks: the PSLV premium. A quick look at the interactive chart, provided by their website, demonstrates that the PSLV premium has been in a slow, but steady, uptrend since the beginning of 2014. In fact, for the last several trading days, the premium in PSLV has closed above 4% each day. Think about the implications of this: the larger holders of PSLV would rather hold its units, than swap it for the instant premium, which they could exchange for other, more undervalued silver investments(like, say, mining shares, or even SLV). The unwillingness to take that easy money off the table should be speaking volumes to silver investors right now. Is Admiral Sprott(as he is fondly called by some), about to fire a giant broadside at the banks which have punished both him and his investors these past few years?
  • Michael Robinson: There's a statistic Neumeyer used to drive home why silver prices will recover from their recent lows: 90% of all the silver that's ever been mined is essentially gone for good. Silver was recently trading at $20 an ounce. For it to become efficient to recycle that silver, Neumeyer said, the price would have to jump to somewhere around $150 an ounce. Not even a silver bull like me believes that will happen any time soon...But consumption does continue to rise, and it won't take long for growing demand to push silver prices higher once again. Indeed, during the silver bull run that began in 2001, annual consumption far outstripped production. Of course, investment demand for physical silver also was rising during that time. Consider that in 2001 silver prices averaged just $4.37 per troy ounce. By 2010, the average price had zoomed to $20.19, a more than four-fold increase in less than a decade. Prices hit a high in 2011, with an average price of $35.12 an ounce. So, from the time silver entered its historic run to the top, prices shot up more than eight-fold. Since then, however, prices have dropped by more than 40%. For his part, Neumeyer thinks the industry is at or near the bottom. He's projecting that silver will sell for between $23 and $25 an ounce by the end of this year. That would be a 25% recovery at the upper end. And technology is not only a beneficiary of silver. Neumeyer says First Majestic is able to use high-tech mining equipment more and more as his industry recovers.
  • Bill Holter (Miles Franklin): My point to writing this piece is not to blow off a little steam but to point out the fact that we are breaking down in every way imaginable. The answer to "what could possibly go wrong?" is simple, EVERYTHING! Every facet of life is going to change, and change soon! What you have been watching for the last 5+ years (really 20++) and hoping was an anomaly or a passing phase is now becoming ingrained as the new normal. The U.S. is broke and losing status globally. Internally we are becoming a police state where the residents (legal and illegal) are at odds with each other and divided by race, religion, politics, ideology and wealth status. Many have nothing and have never saved anything, some have saved and believe they in fact do have something. What will happen when banks, brokers and insurance companies close? These people who believe they "have something" will be angrier than the ones who already know they have nothing, and for good reason. They worked and saved yet are having their savings "stolen" though debasement...bail ins will be the coup de grace. I do want to point out the maybe not too obvious about this, the ones who saved are also the ones who are more likely to be armed with more than just one clip of ammo and the anger level will be off the charts.
  • Raul Ilargi Meijer: Central banks exist to protect banks, and the banking system as a whole, from danger. They pretend that they protect the larger economy, and the people on Main Street, but that's just a convenient little story. Enhanced by the idea that what is good for banks is also good for you. Which is absolute baloney, but it works like a charm.
  • Andrew Hoffman (Miles Franklin): Yesterday represented the Cartel's 60th straight "Sunday Night Sentiment" attack, while today's "2:15 AM" raid was the 281st in the past 317 trading days. In both cases, the odds are not even in the realm of "sixth sigma," with the latter expected to naturally occur every quintillion trading days. And heck, if we calculated the odds of gold falling every day at the 6:00 PM EST open of the ultra-thinly traded "Globex" paper platform, for at least the past year, they would be significantly higher. The first trade after the NYSE closes - in the equally thinly-traded "aftermarket" session that lasts from 4:00 PM EST to 5:15 PM EST - has been lower 66% of the time over the past 16 months. Meanwhile, the opening trade of the Globex session has been lower 73% of the time - and during two of the last three months, more than 90% of the time. In fact, the rare times we actually do see higher prices, they are minute gains, nearly always following large losses during NYSE trading hours. In other words, the Cartel are sitting on prices more than ever, feeling the need to not only do so during trading hours, but off hours as well. Trust me, said "sentiment-crushing" machinations have a profoundly negative impact on the human psyche; but only in the near-term, as ultimately, such petty nuisances will be overcome by a wave of buying so powerful it will put 1979 and 2011 to shame.
  • SRSroccoReport: On the Shanghai Futures Exchange the majority of contracts are settled with physical metal. At the beginning of August, there were 148 metric tons of silver on warrant at the Shanghai Futures Exchange. In just three weeks, 29% of the total inventory was removed. The majority of this decline took place last week when 22 metric tons were withdrawn on Friday alone. Since the beginning of July, 131 metric tons, or 56% of total silver stocks were removed from the Shanghai Futures Exchange. At this trend, it would only take a few more months to totally wipe out the remaining inventory. There is an increasing percentage of DISILLUSIONED precious metals investors. While I can empathize with investors being frustrated that the price of silver has gone nowhere but lower over the past several years…. it doesn’t mean silver is a lousy investment. We must remember… ALL FIAT CURRENCIES ARE LIES that dry up and blow away in the end. Investors need to realize that ENERGY is the driver of the economy, not finance. Furthermore, a growing energy supply allows the global reserve fiat currency, the U.S. Dollar to survive. So, if you follow that line of reasoning, then this is also true: CHEAP OIL giveth the DOLLAR Life, and EXPENSIVE OIL will taketh away.

All this and more on...

The Harvey Report!


Aug 25, 2014 - 8:41pm

Obama scores a hole in one...

& so does his golfbag!!!...

Bag Of Gold

Aug 25, 2014 - 8:30pm
transplanted baby
Aug 25, 2014 - 7:12pm

Let us not forget MOPE- alive and well in KC.

I periodically check up on the situation in Japan. Japan’s debt to GDP is higher than the US’s. Therefore to see what levels of national debt are sustainable one has to look at Japan- see what they did, and what they are doing. So it was interesting to see these comments by the Governor of the Bank of Japan made in Kansas City at a meeting of Fed banks. I have cut and pasted the middle part of his presentation here and underlined the most relevant parts. You may view the full text available in English on the Bank of Japan’s website.

“Furthermore, deflation significantly affected firms' investment behavior. The prospect of

deflation reduced the discounted present value of investment returns and lowered firms'

investment appetite. In addition, it led firms to hoard cash to prepare for potential losses

in the future. As a result, firms, which used to be net investors, turned into net savers and

have stayed in that position (Chart 6). Following the burst of the asset bubble, Japanese

firms were forced to save in order to reduce excess debt. However, they continued to save

even after the excess debt problem had been resolved in the 2000s. Particularly in recent

years, net saving in the corporate sector has become much larger than net saving in the

household sector.

This change of firms into net savers has thrown the economy into a contractionary

equilibrium through the paradox of thrift. If firms use profits obtained through wage cuts

to build up internal funds rather than for investment, aggregate demand in the economy will

shrink. And since a decline in aggregate demand will lower corporate profits, firms will

be forced to cut wages further. This is a typical example of the fallacy of composition.

The vicious cycle of declining wages and declining aggregate demand was initially set in

motion by the balance sheet adjustments following the burst of the asset bubble, but it

became entrenched due to the spread of deflationary sentiment

.II. Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing and the Labor Market

Let me now turn to how Japan is in the process of escaping from this state of contractionary

equilibrium. If uncertainty and concern over the future were the cause of the decline in

wages, then for wages to rise, it is necessary that both employers and employees see

brighter prospects for the future. Therefore, the first step is to change Japan's economy

from one suffering from stagnation under deflation to one that grows sustainably under

moderate inflation. In this regard, the Bank of Japan's quantitative and qualitative

monetary easing (QQE), which I explained in detail at this symposium last year, has been

producing its intended effects. And as a result of these effects, Japan's labor market

situation has shown improvement, as mentioned earlier.“

There you have it. Since people are gloomy about prospects for the future, we have to make the future APPEAR bright- so that people will invest. We (the bankers) have to build up people’s faith in the economy; faith that everything is going to be OK.

The big question is, “Is this going to work or is “the very bad thing” going to happen?”

Aug 25, 2014 - 5:33pm

@ Safety Dan re Kennedy's curency

It's still a fiat debt instrument... notice how it still says "Note" on it? It's no better than the fiat crap that says Federal Reserve Note. Nowhere on that 5 dollar bill does it say anything about silver. As far as I know, all paper money in the US since 1913 has been phony garbage and all of it has said "note" on it meaning it's a debt instrument.

I'd also add that EO 11110 actually was written so they could phase out silver certificates due to the rising price of silver. All it did was authorize the Treasury Secretary to order printing of silver certificates IF needed without having to bother the President to authorize it. Kennedy was not going to issue silver certificates , he was simply allowing the FED to print smaller denomination bills while phasing out silver certificates completely.

ETA: Wilson was the 2nd worst President in US history (Lincoln was the worst). Followed closely by FDR, LBJ and Teddy Roosevelt.

Aug 25, 2014 - 5:11pm

@Tyberious re FED balance sheet

Keep in mind that the FED balance sheet is peanuts by comparison to the fiat printing done due to fractional reserve banking. Total debt in America is 60 Trillion. All of that is currency since the US dollar is a debt instrument.

Aug 25, 2014 - 11:24am

SLV daily

Just a quick reminder of where we are on SLV trend resistance (yellow slope) and moving averages. Copper is holding strong so I don't expect much downside action. In my charting we have to decisively break through that yellow resistance line to move up and get our 100 dma/200 dma golden cross. Just touching it will only send us back down. Expect price meandering until we get close enough to breach it to the upside.

Aug 25, 2014 - 9:42am

SD : I enjoyed your president

SD : I enjoyed your president posts. And you covered the century earlier than I used in my article which was interesting.

The contributions add to the whole.

Safety Dan
Aug 25, 2014 - 9:02am

@AM, Thank you for the great

@AM, Thank you for the great post. I continue to learn much from you about cycles & the overlap.

Please forgive me for inserting several posts on history of Presidents & Money. I felt it applied with your 2nd term President & gold pricing post.

Currency & gold have been influenced by various Presidents and The Federal Reserve. There may be some kind of currency/gold cycle that has been created when a president is assassinated. Seems like there was a cycle of Presidents who were assassinated or attempts made on their life. Others might elaborate.

Safety Dan
Aug 25, 2014 - 8:26am

The Federal Reserve Neither "Federal" or Has "Reserves"

Finally, in 1913, the Private Central Bankers of Europe, in particular the Rothschilds of Great Britain and the Warburgs of Germany, met with their American financial collaborators on Jekyll Island, Georgia to form a new banking cartel with the express purpose of forming the Third Bank of the United States, with the aim of placing complete control of the United States money supply once again under the control of private bankers. Owing to hostility over the previous banks, the name was changed to "The Federal Reserve" system in order to grant the new bank a quasi-governmental image, but in fact it is a privately owned bank, no more "Federal" than Federal Express.

The Federal Reserve; it is neither "Federal" nor does it have any actual "Reserves", creating as it does money out of thin air. - Click for larger image

In 2012, the Federal Reserve attempted to rebuff a Freedom of Information Lawsuit by Bloomberg News on the grounds that as a private banking corporation and not actually a part of the government, the Freedom of Information Act did not apply to the "trade secret" operations of the Federal Reserve.

"When you or I write a check, there must be sufficient funds in our account to cover the check; but when the Federal Reserve writes a check, there is no bank deposit on which that check is drawn. When the Federal Reserve writes a check, it is creating money." -- From the Boston Federal Reserve Bank pamphlet, "Putting it Simply."
"Neither paper currency nor deposits have value as commodities. Intrinsically, a 'dollar' bill is just a piece of paper. Deposits are merely book entries." -- "Modern Money Mechanics Workbook" - Federal Reserve of Chicago, 1975
"I am afraid the ordinary citizen will not like to be told that the banks can and do create money. And they who control the credit of the nation direct the policy of Governments and hold in the hollow of their hand the destiny of the people." -- Reginald McKenna, as Chairman of the Midland Bank, addressing stockholders in 1924
"States, most especially the large hegemonic ones, such as the United States and Great Britain, are controlled by the international central banking system, working through secret agreements at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), and operating through national central banks (such as the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve)... The same international banking cartel that controls the United States today previously controlled Great Britain and held it up as the international hegemon. When the British order faded, and was replaced by the United States, the US ran the global economy. However, the same interests are served. States will be used and discarded at will by the international banking cartel; they are simply tools." -- Andrew Gavin Marshall

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