Gold & 2nd Term US Presidents

48
Sun, Aug 24, 2014 - 7:25pm

Did you know that there is an (alleged) cycle in the price of gold which approximates 8 years in length. Here it is:

Since gold is in a bear market, or recently was in a bear phase, it would appear to be prudent to look at the downwaves of this cycle in the past. Then those periods can be compared with the downwave of 2012-2014.

So for a start let's look at the 1970s 8 year cycle bottom:

Next came the 1980s bottom:

This major low came in a few months after the idealized time. It was preceded by a secondary size low which came 2 years earlier, and the rally between the lows was sharp and significant.

The next low came in the early 1990s:

Once again a low 1 and 2 years [prior to the main low. The main low came in "late".

The following low came here:

A pre-low is visible 18 months prior. Note that the absolute low this time came prior to the idealized low, and the later low was a higher retest. The higher retest set up serious bullishness following it's completion. After this low gold went into it's most recent substantial uptrend.

Whether this rise is secular or cyclic is open to conjecture, although many commentators insist the 2000s gold bull was/is a secular bull, which secular bull trend many assume may not be completed and resumption is assumed. I myself think that that particular view is bull because everything is cyclic in some way or other. To me, the gold bull of 2000-2011 was simply another 7-9 year bull cycle swing which lasts for half the cycle length and is inevitably followed by the return swing. The return swing downwards in 2008 was suppressed which raised the starting point of the following upswing out of the 2009 low. This downswing is making up for the relative shortness of the last one. The "secular bull"downswing retracement is now becoming quite mature and the rallies can be expected to show surprising liveliness, hurting late bears during the bottoming period, but failing to show prolonged follow through to further upside.

Let's get back to the bottoms of this cycle. Next wave ....

There was an 8 year cycle bottom along the way during the gold bull:

At the above bottom, the early low also appeared, but when the "main low" came later, it failed to break the "pre" low, and a series of higher bottoms formed. Following this gold began to rise in value at quite a fast rate.

However a top formed and the 8 year cycle turned down once again.

We are fishing about for an end to this major 8yr wave with it's 3-4 yr downswing at the moment. Though calls for super low swings and for super bull swings (at the same time!) are beginning to emerge as they always do from the must-make-big-name-to-achieve-breakthrough pundit business, not to mention the retail bullion sales business who are naturally hoping upon hope for an end to the bear before all their clients are gone while at the same time keeping a long term bullish face and improving terms (lower premia over spot) towards their remaining clientele. I have found that it is wise to look dispassionately at the data and close my ears to whatever conversational "rhubarb" is floating around.

Here is how it looks with this particular idealized cycle superimposed for reference:

So we can see that the habits of 2nd term Presidents are still intact so far. Being such clever people with clever advisors, they have conjured up via totally innovational concepts and practices exactly the same results as the previous clever presidents' advisors did before them ,and before them , and so on ad nauseum.

So this makes it appear that the gold low is not yet upon us, and another 12 months could be required to make ultimate low for this 8 year downswing.

But not every 8 year downswing is equal. Remember those 2nd year presidents were only "in" for some of the downwaves. Here are the late 20th century and early 21st century US Presidents:

Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama have been elected president twice during the period shown in the gold price charts here. This is year 2 of the second 4 year term, or year 6 of tenure for these dual incumbents.

I leave it to readers to consider which downwaves are the important waves to focus upon based upon who was "in" and for how long. For example, in some years the pre-bottom was higher or lower than it was in other years. This also requires to be taken into account. You have the charts here so this can be readily evaluated.

If all of the 8 year cycle waves, similar and dissimilar were to be overplotted, what might it look like? Here is the chart which takes a bit of careful scrutiny to catch the times and places where they tend to do the same things, and the other times and places where they tend to "disagree" with each other:

Note that the variation between separate lows has been "normalized here by using logarithmic data for the gold price. it is essentially a percentage ratio chart of gold rather than the exact chart. Also note that, if this plays out the same again, (and for sure it won't do that so neatly) but if it ends up looking similar, there are two opportunities for the price of gold to make seriously determined attempts to test the decade trading range lower limits before setting off for the upper side of this long term trading range. "Moonshots" come after the retesting process is completed, and it is my opinion that until then, while big moves up and down will be seen, the thing that goldbugs hope for deep in their hearts will come after the bottoming process has had another low printed, whether this exceeds the low already made is of no importance, it is the need for another half yearly retest that must be satisfied.

And for the bearish of mind who latch onto the message "another low is coming!!" please look to the difference between the different historic downwaves for this cycle, and also the presence of something called "higher lows" which can satisfy a cyclic bearish period just as well when appropriate.

What I see mostly is the probability for two separate "weak periods" during which I might hedge holdings, and at the end of which I would probably buy, should they come to pass.

This leaves the issue of total aggregate global leverage, or to put it another way, maximum expected volatility for swings both upwards and downwards. Gold has certainly seen a significant downswing already, prior to the trading range of the past year or so, and if the swing gets pushed a great distance one way, the return stroke may reasonably be expected to exhibit some similar characteristics. However excluding all the other factors,of which there are undeniably a great number, the habitual behaviour of these powerful administrations is what it is, and they can be assumed to continue to indulge in modern day versions of exactly what their predecessors did before them.

Have a nice weekend everybody!

Argentus Maximus

The author posts daily commentary on the gold and silver markets in the TFMR forum: The Setup For The Big Trade. More information about the author & his work can be found here: RhythmNPrice.

About the Author

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Safety Dan
Aug 26, 2014 - 7:30am

Hurricane Destroyed by HAARP Downburst of Dry Air,

Disclaimer - The following videos are labeled by the producer with his comments. I am not a weatherman nor meteorologist.

California Drought Amazing Satellite Fraud 8 14 14

This shows the REAL reason for the California drought (along with chemtrails, of course). It is AMAZING that hurricane Julio is still shown on the visible satellite, but it DOESN'T EXIST ANYMORE. The other three satellite images prove that it was destroyed by a HAARP downburst of dry air, on August 13, but on the next day, the visible satellite image is still showing it, like nothing happened.

August 14, 2014

California Drought Amazing Satellite Fraud 8 14 14

August 15, 2014

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ca4jsQO8PX4

California Drought Amazing Satellite Fraud part 3 on 8 15 14

August 16, 2014

California Drought Amazing Satellite Fraud part 4 on 8 16 14

This is the last video, showing the phantom Hurricane Julio, fading into oblivion, on the visible satellite.
Remember, three days earlier, Hurricane Julio was completely destroyed by a HAARP dry air downburst. It was destroyed because it was very likely to bring heavy rain to California. To hide the fact that it disappeared suddenly, for no reason, this satellite charade was kept up for THREE DAYS!

atarangi
Aug 26, 2014 - 7:10am
Safety Dan
Aug 26, 2014 - 6:59am

Understanding the ISIS

Understanding the ISIS threat

www.hagmannandhagmann.com

25 August 2014: The current threats posed by ISIS, or the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, to world stability in general and to the U.S. specifically are very real and extremely dangerous. However, the origins of the group and hence the threats are not to be believed “as advertised.” We are being subjected to more lies from the White House to Foggy Bottom, along with many elected leaders who know the real story but insist upon pushing a false narrative. Collectively, they are bringing us to the brink of World War III through Syria, which I have long contended, while simultaneously opening our country to a large scale attack that could equal the September 11, 2001 attacks. Unlike 9/11, however, we know at least part of their strategy.

First, ISIS did not mysteriously or unexpectedly originate from vaporous pockets of Islamic terrorists in an area that is referred to as the Levant, or the geographical region roughly bounded by southern Turkey to the north, Egypt to the south, the Mediterranean to the west and Iraq to the East. No, ISIS was created through an intentional process of deliberate default by the U.S. and Western powers—including Israel, working in conjunction if not on behalf of the Saudis, Kuwait and Qatar. This unconventional alliance will be addressed later, but for now, it must be identified to understand the truly dangerous and evil confederation of complicity.

The formation of ISIS: Conception to birth

To understand the present, we must identify—and fully comprehend—the importance of certain pivotal events that brought us to this point. As the first decade of the 21st century, consumed by the Bush years of wars in Afghanistan and Iraq was coming to a close, elements of Western and Saudi intelligence were deeply involved in orchestrating what is now known as the Arab Spring. As these plans were being laid, the process to select a new U.S. President was in progress. Specifically, the selection of the democratic nominee between Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Hussein Obama was at issue.

Given the requirements needed to accomplish such an ambitious objective as reshaping the power structure of the entire Middle East, it is relevant to cite the “odd meeting” that occurred during the Biderberg Conference in Chantilly, Virginia attended by Obama and Clinton, almost a year to the day (or exactly one calendar year if you use the starting and end dates) before Obama’s infamously important Cairo speech. It was on June 5, 2008 that Obama and Clinton went out of their way to ditch the press and sneak off to the Westfields Marriott Hotel in Chantilly where Henry Kissinger, David Rockefeller and other globalist leaders were meeting at the Bilderberg conference. Shortly thereafter, it was Obama who was selected as the democratic nominee and ultimately, the next leader of the United States. A wise selection, perhaps, considering the globalist plans as detailed herein.

Whatever happened at that secret meeting, Obama was ultimately named as the 44th President of the United States, and Hillary Clinton was appointed as his Secretary of State.

From the very outset of the Obama foreign policy agenda, the intent to reshape the power structure of the Middle East was telegraphed to the world, but few understood the far reaching and world changing implications of this policy. On June 4, 2009, Barack Hussein Obama delivered his “New Beginnings” speech at Cairo University as referenced above. Perhaps the new restructuring of power within the Middle East was discussed at the ranch of King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, located outside Riyadh, where he spent the night on his way to Cairo. From that point forward, it became increasingly obvious that the Saudi agenda was pushing America’s foreign, strategic and even military agenda throughout the Middle East. Obama’s bow to the Saudi king was deep, all we saw was his bony posterior protuberance, which is a lesson in political, or globalist perspective.

More at the link above.

Safety Dan
Aug 26, 2014 - 6:40am

Brave Young Girl Discusses Enforcing Laws..

https://www.liveleak.com/view?i=b11_1388847703

She knows a storm is coming and asks police to make decision about "immoral orders".

Safety Dan
Aug 26, 2014 - 6:37am

Types of Government Republic

Types of Government Republic vs Democracy vs Oligarchy

A short video that explains the differences between a republic, a democracy and Oligarchy.

Types of Government Republic vs Democracy vs Oligarchy

US Is an Oligarchy Not a Democracy, says Scientific Study

A study, to appear in the Fall 2014 issue of the academic journal Perspectives on Politics, finds that the U.S. is no democracy, but instead an oligarchy, meaning profoundly corrupt, so that the answer to the study’s opening question, "Who governs? Who really rules?" in this country, is:

"Despite the seemingly strong empirical support in previous studies for theories of majoritarian democracy, our analyses suggest that majorities of the American public actually have little influence over the policies our government adopts. Americans do enjoy many features central to democratic governance, such as regular elections, freedom of speech and association, and a widespread (if still contested) franchise. But, ..." and then they go on to say, it's not true, and that, "America's claims to being a democratic society are seriously threatened" by the findings in this, the first-ever comprehensive scientific study of the subject, which shows that there is instead "the nearly total failure of 'median voter' and other Majoritarian Electoral Democracy theories [of America]. When the preferences of economic elites and the stands of organized interest groups are controlled for, the preferences of the average American appear to have only a minuscule, near-zero, statistically non-significant impact upon public policy."

To put it short: The United States is no democracy, but actually an oligarchy.

The authors of this historically important study are Martin Gilens and Benjamin I. Page, and their article is titled "Testing Theories of American Politics." The authors clarify that the data available are probably under-representing the actual extent of control of the U.S. by the super-rich:

Economic Elite Domination theories do rather well in our analysis, even though our findings probably understate the political influence of elites. Our measure of the preferences of wealthy or elite Americans – though useful, and the best we could generate for a large set of policy cases – is probably less consistent with the relevant preferences than are our measures of the views of ordinary citizens or the alignments of engaged interest groups. Yet we found substantial estimated effects even when using this imperfect measure. The real-world impact of elites upon public policy may be still greater.

Nonetheless, this is the first-ever scientific study of the question of whether the U.S. is a democracy. "Until recently it has not been possible to test these contrasting theoretical predictions [that U.S. policymaking operates as a democracy, versus as an oligarchy, versus as some mixture of the two] against each other within a single statistical model. This paper reports on an effort to do so, using a unique data set that includes measures of the key variables for 1,779 policy issues." That’s an enormous number of policy-issues studied.

What the authors are able to find, despite the deficiencies of the data, is important: the first-ever scientific analysis of whether the U.S. is a democracy, or is instead an oligarchy, or some combination of the two. The clear finding is that the U.S. is an oligarchy, no democratic country, at all. American democracy is a sham, no matter how much it's pumped by the oligarchs who run the country (and who control the nation's "news" media). The U.S., in other words, is basically similar to Russia or most other dubious "electoral" "democratic" countries. We weren't formerly, but we clearly are now. Today, after this exhaustive analysis of the data, “the preferences of the average American appear to have only a minuscule, near-zero, statistically non-significant impact upon public policy.” That's it, in a nutshell.

https://www.commondreams.org/views/2014/04/14/us-oligarchy-not-democracy...

Safety Dan
Aug 26, 2014 - 6:24am

@ TJefferson

That FRN, a debt note, was redeemable for gold, until 1971. After that date it was not redeemable for anything.

Please read this that was posted a bit higher up from the post you referenced:

That $5 FRN was taking a step back towards what our Constitution outlined. Better than what we have today, no silver stockpiled, unbacked fiat currency created by a private bank, who charges the US interest for creating it from nowhere.

Key Economic Events Week of 10/26

10/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/27 10:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
10/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
10/27 10:00 ET Richmond Fed
10/28 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
10/28 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/29 8:00 ET ECB monetary policy stmt
10/29 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/30 10:00 ET UMich Consmer Sentiment

atarangi
Aug 26, 2014 - 6:17am
atarangi
Aug 26, 2014 - 5:25am

"not free range"

" oh not so good"

atarangi
Aug 26, 2014 - 5:20am

Hole in one

Bugs Bunny briefing 'Big ears on how to get a hole in one'.

mj12
Aug 25, 2014 - 11:50pm

speaking about 2nd term Presidents.........

Thomas Jefferson was a very remarkable man who
started learning very early in life and never
stopped.

At 5, began studying under his cousin's
tutor.

At 9, studied Latin, Greek and
French.

At 14, studied classical literature and
additional languages.

At 16, entered the College of William and Mary.
Also could write in Greek with one hand while writing the same in Latin with the other.

At 19, studied Law for 5 years starting under
George Wythe.

At 23, started his own law practice.

At 25, was elected to the Virginia House of
Burgesses.

At 31, wrote the widely circulated "Summary
View of the Rights of British America"

And retired from his law practice.

At 32, was a Delegate to the Second Continental
Congress.

At 33, wrote the Declaration of Independence .

At 33, took three years to revise Virginia 's
legal code and wrote a Public Education bill

and a statute for Religious Freedom.

At 36, was elected the second Governor of
Virginia succeeding Patrick Henry.

At 40, served in Congress for two years.

At 41, was the American minister to France and
negotiated commercial treaties with European nations along with Ben Franklin and John Adams..

At 46, served as the first Secretary of State
under George Washington.

At 53, served as Vice President and was elected
president of the American Philosophical
Society.

At 55, drafted the Kentucky Resolutions and
became the active head of Republican Party.

At 57, was elected the third president of the
United States .

At 60, obtained the Louisiana Purchase doubling
the nation's size..

At 61, was elected to a second term as
President.

At 65, retired to Monticello ..

At 80, helped President Monroe shape the Monroe
Doctrine.

At 81, almost single-handedly created the
University of Virginia and served as its first
president.

At 83, died on the 50th anniversary of the
Signing of the Declaration of Independence

along with John Adams.

Thomas Jefferson knew because he himself
studied the previous failed attempts at government.

He understood actual history, the nature of God,

His laws and the nature of man.

That happens to be way more than what
most understand today.

Jefferson really knew his stuff.

A voice from the past to lead us in the future:

John F. Kennedy held a dinner in the white
House for a group of the brightest minds

in the nation at that time. He made this statement:

"This is perhaps the assembly

of the most intelligence ever to gather at one
time in the White House with the exception

of when Thomas Jefferson dined alone."

"When we get piled upon one another in large
cities, as in Europe, we shall become as corrupt as Europe ."
-- Thomas Jefferson

"The democracy will cease to exist when you
take away from those who are willing to work

and give to those who would not."
-- Thomas Jefferson

"It is incumbent on every generation to pay its
own debts as it goes. A principle which if acted on would save one-half the wars of the world."

-- Thomas Jefferson

"I predict future happiness for Americans if
they can prevent the government

from wasting the labors of the people

under the pretense of taking care of them."
-- Thomas Jefferson

"My reading of history convinces me that most
bad government results from too much government."
-- Thomas Jefferson

"No free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms."
-- Thomas Jefferson

"The strongest reason for the people to retain
the right to keep and bear arms is,

as a last resort, to protect themselves

against tyranny in government."
-- Thomas Jefferson

"The tree of liberty must be refreshed from
time to time with the blood of patriots and
tyrants."
-- Thomas Jefferson

"To compel a man to subsidize with his taxes
the propagation of ideas which he disbelieves

and abhors is sinful and tyrannical."
-- Thomas Jefferson

Thomas Jefferson said in 1802:

"I believe that banking institutions are more
dangerous to our liberties than standing armies.

If the American people ever allow private banks
to control the issue of their currency, first by
inflation, then by deflation,

the banks and corporations that will grow up

around the banks will deprive the people

of all property -

until their children wake-up homeless on
the continent their fathers conquered."

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/26

10/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/27 10:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
10/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
10/27 10:00 ET Richmond Fed
10/28 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
10/28 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/29 8:00 ET ECB monetary policy stmt
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10/1 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
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