Gold & 2nd Term US Presidents

48
Sun, Aug 24, 2014 - 7:25pm

Did you know that there is an (alleged) cycle in the price of gold which approximates 8 years in length. Here it is:

Since gold is in a bear market, or recently was in a bear phase, it would appear to be prudent to look at the downwaves of this cycle in the past. Then those periods can be compared with the downwave of 2012-2014.

So for a start let's look at the 1970s 8 year cycle bottom:

Next came the 1980s bottom:

This major low came in a few months after the idealized time. It was preceded by a secondary size low which came 2 years earlier, and the rally between the lows was sharp and significant.

The next low came in the early 1990s:

Once again a low 1 and 2 years [prior to the main low. The main low came in "late".

The following low came here:

A pre-low is visible 18 months prior. Note that the absolute low this time came prior to the idealized low, and the later low was a higher retest. The higher retest set up serious bullishness following it's completion. After this low gold went into it's most recent substantial uptrend.

Whether this rise is secular or cyclic is open to conjecture, although many commentators insist the 2000s gold bull was/is a secular bull, which secular bull trend many assume may not be completed and resumption is assumed. I myself think that that particular view is bull because everything is cyclic in some way or other. To me, the gold bull of 2000-2011 was simply another 7-9 year bull cycle swing which lasts for half the cycle length and is inevitably followed by the return swing. The return swing downwards in 2008 was suppressed which raised the starting point of the following upswing out of the 2009 low. This downswing is making up for the relative shortness of the last one. The "secular bull"downswing retracement is now becoming quite mature and the rallies can be expected to show surprising liveliness, hurting late bears during the bottoming period, but failing to show prolonged follow through to further upside.

Let's get back to the bottoms of this cycle. Next wave ....

There was an 8 year cycle bottom along the way during the gold bull:

At the above bottom, the early low also appeared, but when the "main low" came later, it failed to break the "pre" low, and a series of higher bottoms formed. Following this gold began to rise in value at quite a fast rate.

However a top formed and the 8 year cycle turned down once again.

We are fishing about for an end to this major 8yr wave with it's 3-4 yr downswing at the moment. Though calls for super low swings and for super bull swings (at the same time!) are beginning to emerge as they always do from the must-make-big-name-to-achieve-breakthrough pundit business, not to mention the retail bullion sales business who are naturally hoping upon hope for an end to the bear before all their clients are gone while at the same time keeping a long term bullish face and improving terms (lower premia over spot) towards their remaining clientele. I have found that it is wise to look dispassionately at the data and close my ears to whatever conversational "rhubarb" is floating around.

Here is how it looks with this particular idealized cycle superimposed for reference:

So we can see that the habits of 2nd term Presidents are still intact so far. Being such clever people with clever advisors, they have conjured up via totally innovational concepts and practices exactly the same results as the previous clever presidents' advisors did before them ,and before them , and so on ad nauseum.

So this makes it appear that the gold low is not yet upon us, and another 12 months could be required to make ultimate low for this 8 year downswing.

But not every 8 year downswing is equal. Remember those 2nd year presidents were only "in" for some of the downwaves. Here are the late 20th century and early 21st century US Presidents:

Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama have been elected president twice during the period shown in the gold price charts here. This is year 2 of the second 4 year term, or year 6 of tenure for these dual incumbents.

I leave it to readers to consider which downwaves are the important waves to focus upon based upon who was "in" and for how long. For example, in some years the pre-bottom was higher or lower than it was in other years. This also requires to be taken into account. You have the charts here so this can be readily evaluated.

If all of the 8 year cycle waves, similar and dissimilar were to be overplotted, what might it look like? Here is the chart which takes a bit of careful scrutiny to catch the times and places where they tend to do the same things, and the other times and places where they tend to "disagree" with each other:

Note that the variation between separate lows has been "normalized here by using logarithmic data for the gold price. it is essentially a percentage ratio chart of gold rather than the exact chart. Also note that, if this plays out the same again, (and for sure it won't do that so neatly) but if it ends up looking similar, there are two opportunities for the price of gold to make seriously determined attempts to test the decade trading range lower limits before setting off for the upper side of this long term trading range. "Moonshots" come after the retesting process is completed, and it is my opinion that until then, while big moves up and down will be seen, the thing that goldbugs hope for deep in their hearts will come after the bottoming process has had another low printed, whether this exceeds the low already made is of no importance, it is the need for another half yearly retest that must be satisfied.

And for the bearish of mind who latch onto the message "another low is coming!!" please look to the difference between the different historic downwaves for this cycle, and also the presence of something called "higher lows" which can satisfy a cyclic bearish period just as well when appropriate.

What I see mostly is the probability for two separate "weak periods" during which I might hedge holdings, and at the end of which I would probably buy, should they come to pass.

This leaves the issue of total aggregate global leverage, or to put it another way, maximum expected volatility for swings both upwards and downwards. Gold has certainly seen a significant downswing already, prior to the trading range of the past year or so, and if the swing gets pushed a great distance one way, the return stroke may reasonably be expected to exhibit some similar characteristics. However excluding all the other factors,of which there are undeniably a great number, the habitual behaviour of these powerful administrations is what it is, and they can be assumed to continue to indulge in modern day versions of exactly what their predecessors did before them.

Have a nice weekend everybody!

Argentus Maximus

The author posts daily commentary on the gold and silver markets in the TFMR forum: The Setup For The Big Trade. More information about the author & his work can be found here: RhythmNPrice.

About the Author

  48 Comments

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Safety Dan
Aug 27, 2014 - 12:59am

@Tjeffson

I understood that. The point I was making is - where is the silver supply the US once had now? Which is better to have it, or not to have it as a government?

TJeffson
Aug 26, 2014 - 5:52pm

@Safety Dan re the $5

As far as I can tell, the last silver certificate issued in the US was 1953. The 1963 series red seal bills were notes not certificates (thus the words "United States Note" across the top). Thus they were not redeemable in silver. Also, all silver redemption was ended in 1968 by Congress.

Kennedy was not trying to issue silver certificates and EO 11110 proves that if you read it. The EO simply gave the Treasury Sec. the authority to order silver certificates be printed up IF (big if) they were needed.

ancientmoney
Aug 26, 2014 - 10:24am

Silver is trading 8-12% higher than comex on other bourses . . .

"The front month silver contract on the Shanghai Futures exchange is currently trading at an 8% premium to the LBMA price and the futures curve there is in backwardation, indicating a very tight physical market.
Roughly 80% of the physical silver from the SFE vaults have been removed.
On the Moscow Exchange, silver trades at a 16.8% premium to the LBMA price.
But this is what we get in the lawless United States:"

https://www.silverdoctors.com/more-comex-blatant-manipulation/

ancientmoney
Aug 26, 2014 - 9:47am

Who REALLY killed James Foley, then?

"While the expert analysis does not deny that the video ends with the death of Foley, it alleges that the execution itself may have been staged, "with the actual murder taking place off-camera." In other words, the implication is that the British jihadist in the film may have been the frontman rather than the killer. Which also means that the manic scramble that has gripped the UK to identify "Jihadi John" may be one giant misdirection whose purpose is not quite clear."

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

It seems quite clear to me: the elite, NWO a$$holes need a very, very nasty "boogieman" to galvanize Americans, to allow unfettered NWO ops to continue. ISIS, we are warned, are coming to America to let blood. Of course, our open southern borders will be blamed on "border guard incompetence" after we are led to believe 9 ISIS agents let off a stolen nuke in some U.S. city, likely near the border (but preferably a tactical nuke in the White House aand Capitol building in D.C.).

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-25/forensic-expert-says-foley-murder-may-have-been-staged

ancientmoney
Aug 26, 2014 - 9:27am

Most here already know, or sensed this . . . a new 9-11

is being, or has been planned:

"Understand that the ouster of Assad against the wishes of Putin remains a primary objective of this globalist crowd of U.S. and foreign leaders. We’ve opened up a new front via the creation of ISIS to get to Assad and Syria, a move fully understood by Putin. Meanwhile, the globalist leaders, including the IMF which was first on the ground in Ukraine, also opened up the Ukrainian front against Russia and Putin, to keep him occupied while the U.S.-Saudi globalist alliance is busy in the Middle East. We are watching a global chess game for power at multiple levels, and these seemingly disparate events are linked by a globalist agenda.

The globalist leaders seem to be making their boldest moves yet to bring about the conditions necessary to unite the world against a nebulous terror threat known as ISIS. The open southern borders have provided unfettered access into the United States by ISIS members, or at least the perception of infiltration, as we prepare for the next 9/11 event. While we’ve seen so many “false flag” scenarios in our lifetime, from the Gulf of Tonkin to more recent domestic events, we can be certain of one thing: an event on par with, or exceeding that of 9/11, is needed to get the attention of the American public. It is the only thing that will serve to galvanize the public into acceptance of a new front, a new war, a new offensive, or the method to get us to rally behind the agenda we have so far rejected. This is the reason that the situation today is so precarious. Simply stated, false flags and the cry for the need of additional foreign entanglements aren’t working anymore.

Is ISIS a threat to us? Indeed it is, but one made in the basement laboratories of the globalists and the lawless leaders of our own government, and those of our allies.

The end-game objective is to create a threat so dangerous and nebulous that we must come together in a globalist fashion. Most Americans would not relinquish their national sovereignty to a one world government structure—not now, not yet. They would not consider a one world, or “new world” order under the present conditions. The attacks of September 11, 2001 softened us up to accept a Third Reich formation of “homeland security” and caused many otherwise rational Americans to accept a fatal blow to our civil liberties. Think about what the next attack of an equal or greater magnitude will accomplish. Oh, by the way, does anyone recall a recent report of a few missing nuclear weapons?

May God be with us all." (emphasis added)

https://www.hagmannandhagmann.com/globlalist-agenda/understanding-the-isis-threat/

Safety Dan
Aug 26, 2014 - 9:16am

Gold’s Performance August 26,

Gold’s Performance

August 26, 2014

Sticking with the precious metals topic, as it seems to be generating a lot of interest. I’ve received a lot of emails, some of which love the content and the charts, some of which totally disagree with ever buying Gold or Silver, and some of which think I’m crazy (those are standard haha).

Before I start, I would like to say that I am not to sure why some people make it a habit of disagreeing in frantic fashion. The point of this blog is to show you what I am doing with my money. If I lose money, it is my own fault and I get poorer, not richer. I am not really giving out financial advice and many of you who have been reading the blog for awhile would have noticed that my favourite line is to win (and also lose) money based on your own research and analysis. Don’t listen to what anyone including me has to say.

Chart 1: Rarely has the price of Gold fallen by one third over a few years!

Source: Short Side of Long (click to enlarge for full view)

The chart above shows Gold since it floated on the free market exchange in late 1960s, together with a 1 year and 3 year rolling performance. The bottom of the chart has a grey shaded area, which represents an oversold zone. Historically, the price of Gold has rarely fallen by 30% or more over any rolling 1 year or 3 year period. In 2013, Gold just fell by 30% over 12 months and this week marks close to a three year anniversary of the Gold’s bear market, pushing it into an extremely oversold zone, down 32% in the last 36 months.

Several periods that market performance as awful as today were:

  • in middle of 1970s the 1 year rolling performance fell by more then 30%
  • in early 1980s both 1 and 3 year rolling performance fell by almost 40%
  • in middle of 1980s the 3 year rolling performance fell by more then 30%
  • in late 1990s the 3 year rolling performance also fell by more then 30%

All of those occurred at or near major Gold bottoms. Therefore, drawdowns from extremely oversold levels were usually on a smaller scale from a value investors point of view (unlike traders, who think a drawdown of 5% is huge). The indicator marked major bottom almost immediately in 1976, 1985 and 1999. During the Precious Metals bubble crash of early 1980s, the oversold indicators persisted for longer and initial signals did not work properly.

For the record the worst annualised loss was -39% in 1981 and the worst 3 year rolling loss was -42% in 1983. Currently, Gold is down -32% over the last three years.

https://shortsideoflong.com/2014/08/golds-performance/

ancientmoney
Aug 26, 2014 - 8:50am

Safety Dan re: origination of ISIS, Benghazi . . .

"While Michael Reagan was perhaps the first to write about this illegal covert arms operation in his column Building on a kernel of truth, I have authored more than four dozen reports on the role of Benghazi and the road to World War III. It is Benghazi where the truth must win out to prevent us from entering our death race to Damascus, or the beginning of World War III. To date, everyone has been misdirected, or intentionally directed to the “red herring” of diplomatic security as the proximate cause of the death of four Americans in Benghazi. It is nothing of the sort. The attack at Benghazi was an attack by proxy to stop the flow of arms and fighters on a mission to oust Assad and destabilize Syria, which is Russia’s red line in the sand.

Regarding Benghazi, the Select Committee on Benghazi, led by Trey Gowdy, will begin in about a month. We shall see whether this committee will be effective in ferreting out the truth, or be muzzled like the other queries before it. I expect that we will hear one of two things; either the committee will succumb to the official narrative that Benghazi was “a failure of security,” or less likely, provide the refreshing truth that it was a covert yet broadly orchestrated mission involving interwoven groups running arms and fighters across North Africa with sights set on Syria. The latter would then identify the true beneficiaries of this globalist agenda—the Saudis—and their captive agent in the Oval Office. This will not be permitted to happen, in my view, considering the “gang of eight” who knew the agenda far in advance.

As Benghazi blew up in the faces of Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton, the larger plot to oust Assad had to take different forms. Yet, the American public had awakened, even if for a few moments, and said “no” and “hell no” to yet another offensive or war in the Middle East. This pushback, however, did not stop the Obama-Saudi alliance from additional attempts to engage us in a conflict. We were treated to false flag events that included a chemical weapons attack purportedly conducted at the hands of Assad. Other attempts were made to engage us, yet our collective stomachs were full of the bile of this Renegade-in-Chief’s agenda.

As time marched on, we bore witness to the selection and installation of John O. Brennan as head of the CIA, an interesting choice considering his former involvement not just with the CIA, but with Obama and in particular, the Saudis. It is important to note his reported role in the passport office break-in in 2008, and his possible role with the video that supposedly sparked riots throughout the Middle East, leading to the attacks of 9/11/12. We also saw Hillary Rodham Clinton extricate herself from Foggy Bottom, a political move as she must insulate herself from the continued controversy of a foreign policy contrary to U.S. interests, especially if she intends to seek the 2016 democratic presidential nomination."

--Douglas Hagmann, Hagmann and Hagman Report (from link you posted earlier)

The entire Benghazi affair is the lynchpin to discovering the truth about many things:

--whether Obama was born in U.S.

--Obama's covert arms operations to unseat Assad in Syria to help his owners, the Saudis

--Likely a Russia-inspired attack on Benghazi that killed 4 Americans, in order to stop the shipments of U.S. backed arms and "rebels" to Syria

--the false flag chemical attacks in Syria blamed on Assad

Safety Dan
Aug 26, 2014 - 8:24am

Fractures in Arab Gulf

Fractures in Arab Gulf alliance a greater threat to oil security than Islamic State

In 1981 six Arab monarchies, which today control about a fifth of the world’s oil supply, formed the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC).

As the war between Iraq and Iran intensified, the Sunni Arab sheikhdoms of the Gulf peninsula - Saudi Arabia, Oman, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar - originally came together in theory to form a Middle Eastern version of the European Union. Although the group has no formal political charter like the EU, it still provides the only official forum where all six leaders of these oil-rich countries can sit down together to debate and agree on mutually beneficial policies in the region.

But the rise of Islamic extremism across the Middle East, America’s growing willingness to deal with Iran and lingering leadership succession issues amongst member states are now unpicking the ties that have bound the GCC together in a tectonic shift that could have profound implications for the security of the world’s largest oil fields.

Formed in the shadow of war, its initial purpose was to help guarantee security mainly from larger Pan-Arab nationalist despots such as Saddam Hussein and the threat posed by the Shiite Mullah’s in Tehran. But after the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 its focus became increasingly economic. Initiatives such as interconnecting electricity networks across the GCC, regional transportation projects including a railway and the possibility of a formal currency union took hold.

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Safety Dan
Aug 26, 2014 - 7:41am

Lies Exposed: DOJ Admits

Lies Exposed: DOJ Admits “Missing” IRS Emails DO Exist

"In a stunning turn of events, Department of Justice attorneys for the IRS admitted that Lois Lerner’s emails DO exist on a backup server after all."

In a stunning turn of events, Department of Justice attorneys for the IRS admitted that Lois Lerner’s emails DO exist on a backup server, but said they would be hard to find.

Judicial Watch President Tom Fitton broke the news today:

Department of Justice attorneys for the Internal Revenue Service told Judicial Watch on Friday that Lois Lerner’s emails, indeed all government computer records, are backed up by the federal government in case of a government-wide catastrophe. The Obama administration attorneys said that this back-up system would be too onerous to search. The DOJ attorneys also acknowledged that the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration (TIGTA) is investigating this back-up system.

We obviously disagree that disclosing the emails as required would be onerous, and plan to raise this new development with Judge Sullivan.

This is a jaw-dropping revelation. The Obama administration had been lying to the American people about Lois Lerner’s missing emails. There are no “missing” Lois Lerner emails – nor missing emails of any of the other top IRS or other government officials whose emails seem to be disappearing at increasingly alarming rate. All the focus on missing hard drives has been a diversion. The Obama administration has known all along where the email records could be – but dishonestly withheld this information. You can bet we are going to ask the court for immediate assistance in cutting through this massive obstruction of justice.

Remember, back in June, IRS officials told Congress that the emails were lost and that the agency had gone to “great lengths” to try to retrieve them.

Conveniently, the emails lost were mainly ones to and from people outside the IRS, such as the White House, Treasury, Department of Justice, FEC, or Democrat offices.

The shocking information was provided to Judicial Watch by order of U.S. District Judge Emmet G. Sullivan, who, back in July, ordered the IRS to provide a declaration explaining exactly how the agency managed to “lose” two years’ worth of emails belonging to Lois Lerner.

Who woulda thought this was the case? Can you believe that IRS officials lied under oath? What has our government come to when you cannot trust the IRS? More in the linked story above.. Meanwhile I will have to lie down just to get my head straight, about this grave misrepresentation by our IRS officials.

erewenguy
Aug 26, 2014 - 7:39am

Stacking Celtic Style - silver and copper coins, gold jewelry

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-jersey-28900555

22 August 2014 Last updated at 19:27 ET

Jersey Hoard: Archaeologists Unpick 70,000 Coins

By Mike Weir BBC News

See original article for video, which includes the original mass being moved away from the hole and the quote "we think this was buried in one night"

Work to separate 70,000 Celtic coins and pieces of jewellery is taking place under the public gaze at Jersey Museum.

Researchers aim to remove and clean up to 500 coins a week for the next three years in a specially built glass-walled lab.

The metal detector enthusiasts who made the find are now part of the team working on the project.

They unearthed the hoard, though to be the world's largest, in 2012 in a field in Grouville.

For the past two years the team, led by Jersey Heritage conservator Neil Mahrer, has been documenting the hoard, which is about 2,000 years old.

They expect to begin pulling it apart, one coin at a time, in a few days.

Mr Mahrer has been using a £40,000 laser scanner to create detailed three-dimensional imagery of the find.

The laser is so precise it can pick out intricate patterns minted thousands of years ago.

Once scanned, the coins will be separated, dipped in formic acid, washed and meticulously cleaned by hand under a microscope.

"It's very important to us to have the best possible record of the hoard the way it was found before we start taking it apart, because we only get one shot at it," said Mr Mahrer.

"We still can't see inside the thing. We tried to find out about getting it x-rayed but it's just too big and too thick so all we can do is look at the surface.

"What will come out over the next three years will be a surprise to us all."

The team is already processing about 2,000 loose coins excavated with the main cluster.

Several examples of a rare coin weighing 0.5g are being found daily, adding to a known global catalogue "measured in the tens". Little is known about the tiny coin's origins.

Richard Miles worked in the States of Jersey Customs and Excise service when he and fellow enthusiast Reg Mead unearthed the hoard.

Both now work in the museum, helping catalogue the find and showing visitors around.

Mr Miles said the hoard will keep coin researchers around the world busy for years.

The pair's discovery was the culmination of a 30-year search.

"It's the story that's got people's interest," said Mr Miles.

"It's not just the treasure itself, but the fact that we've been searching for some time."

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