Ready For A Hot Weekend

Fri, Aug 22, 2014 - 2:47pm

Is the war in Ukraine about to get significantly hotter? All signs point to an imminent increase in hostilities and direct Russian involvement. I guess we'll just sit back and watch as there's not much else we can do.

Earlier today, the Russian "humanitarian convoy" crossed the border into Ukraine and there are already pictures of white trucks on the ground in Lugansk.

The first traffic jam in 'war' #Lugansk. And the Russian humanitarian aid is now here! #aidconvoy #Ukrainecrisis

— GrahamWPhillips (@GrahamWP_UK) August 22, 2014

The Ukraine Ministry of Foreign Affairs was quick to respond, calling this "an illegal crossing" and a "flagrant violation of the principles of international law":

Recall now what Professor Cohen told us in his segment with John Batchelor 10 days ago...that the convoy had been sent off from Moscow with great fanfare. The Russian government even trotted out a few Orthodox bishops to sprinkle holy water on the trucks in the hopes of blessing them with safe passage. There can be no doubt that this send-off event was staged and orchestrated in order to bring the Russian population completely in line with the mission.

Perhaps this will all work out fine. Perhaps the terrorized citizens of Lugansk and Donetsk will get some food, water and medicine and then the Russian convoy will withdraw. Perhaps Merkel will meet with Poroshenko tomorrow in Kiev and they'll have a wonderful time. Perhaps Poroshenko and Putin will then meet in Minsk next Tuesday and be seen laughing it up, fist-bumping and hugging. Let's hope so.

Perhaps, instead, this has all been designed as a false flag from the get go. Perhaps the convoy, full of Russian goods and driven by Russian citizens (soldiers?), will come under attack at some point this weekend. Perhaps the Ukraine militia, which we already know are only loosely controlled by Kiev, will read the official statement from the Ukraine Foreign Ministry and decide to take matters into their own hands. After all, they're supposedly defending Mother Ukraine, right? Do you not think they consider their mandate an obligation to defend Ukraine from " illegal and aggressive acts of the Russian Federation"?

The full text of the Ukraine statement is below. I've added bold and italic emphasis to the sections that seem the most relevant. Please pay extra close attention to the headlines and your twitter feed today and this weekend. As you know, I've been following these events very closely since February and everything tells me that the situation is about to make a dramatic escalation. For once I hope...and pray...that I'm wrong.


Statement of the MFA of Ukraine in connection with illegal crossing of the state border of Ukraine by the Russian convoy

Today, 13:21
On August, 22 Russia began smuggling humanitarian aid to Ukraine, ignoring established international rules, procedures and agreements, without the consent and escort of the International Committee of the Red Cross.
Although the border and customs services of Ukraine have already started clearance of the Russian convoy, in the morning Ukrainian officials were blocked by the Russian forces and detached from the inspection of the rest of the trucks in the column, despite previous agreements and the fact that they had been invited to the territory of Russia. We are concerned about the safety of our employees. Moreover, deep concern is raised because so far neither Ukrainian side nor the ICRC are aware of the content of the cargo.
The fact that Russian trucks entered the territory of Ukraine without proper border and customs procedures and that the cargo was not donated to the representatives of the International Committee of the Red Cross indicates deliberate and aggressive nature of Russia’s actions.
As we have previously emphasized the Russian side is fully responsible for the safety of the cargo. It is important to note that the Ukraine has already taken all necessary measures to ensure the security of the cargo.
In order to prevent any provocations we have issued all necessary instructions for the safe passing of the convoy. Despite all attempts by the Ukrainian side the contact between the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the one of Russia, has not been established, which is critical to ensure security along the route. We point out that terrorists carry out mortar attacks along the possible route of the cargo.
We also are not aware of the content of the agreements of the Russian side with Luhansk insurgents and we do not exclude the possibility of any planned provocation.
We consider this act to be another flagrant violation of the fundamental principles of international law, including inviolability of borders, non-interference in the internal affairs of another state and bona fide fulfillment of international obligations by the Russian Federation.
We call on all international partners to join the strong condemnation of illegal and aggressive acts of the Russian Federation.

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 22, 2014 - 11:12am

And this too

Quoted on ZH. I'm still looking for source:

As Former US Ambassador to Ukraine Bill Taylor warns "markets should be concerned, this is an actual invasion... and likely means war."

Aug 22, 2014 - 11:13am

They can claim

That they will allow safe passage until the cows come home. There are roughly 8 private oligarch backed Neo-Nazi militia units fighting against the NovoRussians. Anyone of those groups could attack that convoy. All parties will deny responsibility, but the fact will remain that Russians died in Ukraine.

There will be no fist bumping from Putin. You don't get to bump his fist. His fist bumps you.

Aug 22, 2014 - 11:14am


That was a video on CNBC about 15 minutes ago. The guy is a total Russophobe douchebag.

Aug 22, 2014 - 11:15am

Thanks, Steven

As soon as they put it up, I'll embed it.

Aug 22, 2014 - 11:16am

False claims.....

abound in this arena.

Aug 22, 2014 - 11:20am

Because you can never have "enough"

FWIW, I just did this:

Items Ordered

Product Name SKU Price Qty Subtotal
Subtotal $1,324.80
Shipping & Handling $11.95
Grand Total $1,336.75

1 oz US American Gold Eagle Coin | Dates Our Choice

BBUG-00001 $1,324.80 Ordered:1 $1,324.80
Aug 22, 2014 - 11:22am

We all so appreciate their analysis - but tight range is right

Analysts are weighing up the many factors that have been causing the commodity gold to trade in a tight range in recent months.


Fed hike or 'Putin put'? Factors affecting gold

By Matt Clinch1 hour ago


View photo

Chris Ratcliffe | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The price of spot gold (Exchange:XAU=) remained just above a two-month low on Friday morning, as analysts weighed up the many factors that have been causing the commodity to trade in a tight range in recent months.

Related Stories

Gold rose 0.12 percent on Friday to trade at $1,278.60, amid heightening tensions between Ukraine and Russia, but this could prove to be a brief respite with gold watchers predicting a slight fall in the longer term. Before Friday, the metal had been on a five-day losing streak.

"We think in the next few months we'll get some more downward pressure on gold," Matthew Turner, a precious metals analyst at Macquarie Securities told CNBC Friday.

Read More Moscow defies Kiev,aid convoy passes Ukraine border

John Meyer, a mining analyst at brokerage SP Angel, agreed and believes that the weakness will persist for gold. He expects the commodity to be range-bound for the rest of 2014. "Yes gold is heading south for now," he told CNBC Friday.

In the 10 years up until last December 2012, gold had surged around 400 percent, with the help of low interest rates, extra Federal Reserve liquidity and concerns over the global economy. In 2013 it lost 30 percent of its value with the Fed beginning to dial back its $85 billion-a-month stimulus program. This year, meanwhile, the precious metal has added 6 percent to its price with a range of factors influencing both speculators and physical gold buyers.

Rate hike

Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation and traditionally has had an inverse relationship to interest rates, with demand for the precious metal increasing when rates are low. With the Fed delivering a more hawkish tone in the minutes from its latest policy meeting the price has softened.

Turner said that speculators follow Fed policy closely and were willing to buy gold as the price rose but accentuated the fall when the Fed's policy suddenly changed in 2013.

Read More Rate hikes not bad for stocks: Portfolio manager

"The investment money has come out of the market," he told CNBC. "What drives speculation is U.S. monetary policy still and last year we had a shock...this year we haven't had a shock"


Continued concerns that violence in Ukraine could escalate rapidly has provided some support for the price which is seen as a "safe-haven" trade. Pro-Russian separatists are currently locked in fierce battles against Ukrainian forces and Turner has dubbed this a "Putin put" which he believes provides a floor for gold prices at $1,200. A put option is a contract which offers the right, but not the obligation to sell an asset at a pre-agreed level.

"We've raised our floor price on the grounds of these geopolitical events such as Ukraine and Iraq, we think it's put a 'put' under the market."

Read More Why is the gold price immune to global strife?

Foreign buying

Also on the plus side for the precious metal, Turner believes than when the price falls slightly it spurs buyers in China and India who are inclined to buy physical gold items rather than gold derivatives or paper-based assets traded on exchanges.

However, this tailwind seems to have dissipated this year. In its latest quarterly report The World Gold Council noted that total global gold demand in the second quarter had fallen 16 percent from the same period last year, with demand in top buyers China and India falling about 50 percent and 40 percent respectively.

Central banks

If physical demand is wavering then the reins may have been picked up by central banks who remain net buyers of the commodity in 2014. Data from the International Monetary Fund 's financial statistics report continue to show that the Russian central bank has been stocking up on gold in an effort to diversify its reserves.

Read More When is a safe-haven asset not a safe-haven play?

"Would you want to put your funds into U.S. dollars (Exchange:.DXY)?" SP Angel's Meyer told CNBC.

"There's been lots of central bank buying. So that's positive. (Russia is) definitely buying gold, they bought 55 tons so far in the first half (of 2014) and I'm sure they'll be buying more of it, the Chinese too," he added.

Mr. Fix
Aug 22, 2014 - 11:24am

I'm not buying very much of this:

All the talk of “eminent war”, seems to be coming from NATO, our State Department, and the basic goon squad on their side, with no real speaking of it from the other side.

I am more than a little skeptical of all of the Russian troops on the border reports, they've been saying that for well over a month now.

The convoy of humanitarian aid trucks was supposed to be the big invasion, and yet there's nothing there but food.

It's the Western banking cartel whose in desperate need of a war as a diversion for their impending collapse,

Russia knows that the West will collapse under its own dead weight if it just sits back and watches.

In other words, they have absolutely no reason to initiate hostilities whatsoever.

Our side however is in desperate need of a war somewhere, anywhere, and is actively pursuing multiple options.

The only way they're going to get anyone to fight back, is if we in fact are on both sides of the battle,

that's where ISIS comes in.

The only way the United States can kick off World War III, is if it arms, trains, finances both sides.

This is exactly what it will do.

Aug 22, 2014 - 11:27am

Chaos is distinctly ramping up as we head to

order; EEE's new world order. Military stazi neoCON police state is in full view in Ferguson. You know the EEE is preparing big time to thump those who participate in civil disobedience. A civil disobedience which is being stirred up by the EEE provocateurs. As the cowardly bankstering cartel can not exist in a free market the win is always rigged in favor of the financial gestapo. Even when the fines are huge to appear a loss, as with bacula's 16 billion fine, it's miniscule compared to overall raping, pillaging, and plundering of we the peoples wealth. Fines globally of banksters still has not exceeded 1 thin penny over global profiteering; racketeering. Now the thugs want an advantage in outright conflict with banning body amour among we the people. Civil disobedience is a suckers game for those who go out in rioting protest to battle the EEE on these rat bastards chosen place. Don't be suckered in turdites and hit the streets unless it's to get out of harms way. A reduction in populaces within major US cities is only advantage to the EEE; gestapo tactics and all. Civilians get one free item; a body bag. You may call it what you will but those who are not suckered to raise the sword against their neighbors, stasi neoCONs who would capo people as chattle to furnaces at one bowl of food 3 times a day, as in nazi germany, the more civilized, law abiding people unite; gather in strength to defend the republic and our constitution. The escalating chaos in our country is all one massive EEE planned freak show, to reach a final goal of complete submission and sheeple round up for sheering; silencing of the lambs in brutal slaughter. Intelligence cleaves to intelligence as birds of a feather flock together in peace. Where the carcass is or the body of the remaining shreds of our constitution, there will the eagles be gathered. Let the turkeys serve themselves up in rioting to their unfortunate demise. Eagles will mount up their wings, renew their strength in the Lord, as our founding Fathers; 2 eagles feeding sending 10,000 fleeing chickens to KFC buckets. I do not doubt as it is written. The Lord will full fill every promise to His patriots who fight for constitutional freedom; the truth setting one free and the leaven of some few, giving rise to the whole of liberty for all. Liberty will fill the whole earth. Nothing is too hard for the Lord as His children listen and obey.

Aug 22, 2014 - 11:30am

Dec gold keeps inching UP

Back above $1280 at $1281.60 and nearly $7 off of the day's lows.

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