Ready For A Hot Weekend

Fri, Aug 22, 2014 - 2:47pm

Is the war in Ukraine about to get significantly hotter? All signs point to an imminent increase in hostilities and direct Russian involvement. I guess we'll just sit back and watch as there's not much else we can do.

Earlier today, the Russian "humanitarian convoy" crossed the border into Ukraine and there are already pictures of white trucks on the ground in Lugansk.

The first traffic jam in 'war' #Lugansk. And the Russian humanitarian aid is now here! #aidconvoy #Ukrainecrisis

— GrahamWPhillips (@GrahamWP_UK) August 22, 2014

The Ukraine Ministry of Foreign Affairs was quick to respond, calling this "an illegal crossing" and a "flagrant violation of the principles of international law":

Recall now what Professor Cohen told us in his segment with John Batchelor 10 days ago...that the convoy had been sent off from Moscow with great fanfare. The Russian government even trotted out a few Orthodox bishops to sprinkle holy water on the trucks in the hopes of blessing them with safe passage. There can be no doubt that this send-off event was staged and orchestrated in order to bring the Russian population completely in line with the mission.

Perhaps this will all work out fine. Perhaps the terrorized citizens of Lugansk and Donetsk will get some food, water and medicine and then the Russian convoy will withdraw. Perhaps Merkel will meet with Poroshenko tomorrow in Kiev and they'll have a wonderful time. Perhaps Poroshenko and Putin will then meet in Minsk next Tuesday and be seen laughing it up, fist-bumping and hugging. Let's hope so.

Perhaps, instead, this has all been designed as a false flag from the get go. Perhaps the convoy, full of Russian goods and driven by Russian citizens (soldiers?), will come under attack at some point this weekend. Perhaps the Ukraine militia, which we already know are only loosely controlled by Kiev, will read the official statement from the Ukraine Foreign Ministry and decide to take matters into their own hands. After all, they're supposedly defending Mother Ukraine, right? Do you not think they consider their mandate an obligation to defend Ukraine from " illegal and aggressive acts of the Russian Federation"?

The full text of the Ukraine statement is below. I've added bold and italic emphasis to the sections that seem the most relevant. Please pay extra close attention to the headlines and your twitter feed today and this weekend. As you know, I've been following these events very closely since February and everything tells me that the situation is about to make a dramatic escalation. For once I hope...and pray...that I'm wrong.


Statement of the MFA of Ukraine in connection with illegal crossing of the state border of Ukraine by the Russian convoy

Today, 13:21
On August, 22 Russia began smuggling humanitarian aid to Ukraine, ignoring established international rules, procedures and agreements, without the consent and escort of the International Committee of the Red Cross.
Although the border and customs services of Ukraine have already started clearance of the Russian convoy, in the morning Ukrainian officials were blocked by the Russian forces and detached from the inspection of the rest of the trucks in the column, despite previous agreements and the fact that they had been invited to the territory of Russia. We are concerned about the safety of our employees. Moreover, deep concern is raised because so far neither Ukrainian side nor the ICRC are aware of the content of the cargo.
The fact that Russian trucks entered the territory of Ukraine without proper border and customs procedures and that the cargo was not donated to the representatives of the International Committee of the Red Cross indicates deliberate and aggressive nature of Russia’s actions.
As we have previously emphasized the Russian side is fully responsible for the safety of the cargo. It is important to note that the Ukraine has already taken all necessary measures to ensure the security of the cargo.
In order to prevent any provocations we have issued all necessary instructions for the safe passing of the convoy. Despite all attempts by the Ukrainian side the contact between the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the one of Russia, has not been established, which is critical to ensure security along the route. We point out that terrorists carry out mortar attacks along the possible route of the cargo.
We also are not aware of the content of the agreements of the Russian side with Luhansk insurgents and we do not exclude the possibility of any planned provocation.
We consider this act to be another flagrant violation of the fundamental principles of international law, including inviolability of borders, non-interference in the internal affairs of another state and bona fide fulfillment of international obligations by the Russian Federation.
We call on all international partners to join the strong condemnation of illegal and aggressive acts of the Russian Federation.

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 22, 2014 - 10:48am


My first first!

Aug 22, 2014 - 10:51am

Another convoy picture

Aug 22, 2014 - 10:56am

Short memory

Its amazing how quickly the 2 Malaysian airlines have fallen not only out of the sky but out of the news also. Fergusen, Mo seems to be fading somewhat also. The bad guys need another false flag to keep the masses occupied and this may be it...

Meanwhile the pm sale goes on and I think Ill add more today...

Aug 22, 2014 - 10:57am

SLV charts just posted in last open thread

These are the channels I am particularly interested in (ignore the maroon horizontal lines at the bottom of the chart, those are personal reference points)

On the SLV weekly chart, notice the yellow trend resistance touching @ 8-26-11 and 11-30-12. From my chart, this is the valid channel resistance based on the confirmation of two other parallel trendlines on the chart. We have not really gotten close breaking this resistance yet, although we almost touched it on 7-11-14.

Zeroing in a little closer on the daily chart, you can see that the 50 day MA crossed above the 200 dMA on 8-7-14. This is the first time this occurred since the great massacre of 2011. A pushback in price was expected to keep the price under control. The 100 dMA is starting to converge with the 200 dMA, and the yellow channel trend resistance line is now lower in value than prices in much of July. Any short squeeze will propel price up through the trend resistance line and the 100 dMA above the 200 dMA.

This seems to be a pretty complex inverse head and shoulders bottoming pattern but based on these charts a day of reckoning is getting close.

Aug 22, 2014 - 10:59am

And now there's these

Aug 22, 2014 - 11:00am
Aug 22, 2014 - 11:02am

And this

Aug 22, 2014 - 11:04am

Again, a reminder

I retweet everything of significance that I see.

If you want to stay up-to-the-minute on everything, you simply MUST be on twitter. If you don't have time to do the work of compiling list of folks to follow, just follow me and look at my list.


Aug 22, 2014 - 11:09am

It seems that gold might have

It seems that gold might have finally awakened to the impending hostilities...

Urban Roman
Aug 22, 2014 - 11:10am

Russian Foreign Ministry statement on aid convoy

"The endless delays hampering the initial deliveries of the Russian humanitarian relief aid to southeastern Ukraine have become intolerable.


"We hereby state once again: All the required security guarantees regarding the passage of the humanitarian convoy have been provided. The ICRC has officially recognised these guarantees. The delivery routes are known, and they have been checked by an ICRC mission. The documents have been drawn up. The shipments have long been ready for inspection by Ukrainian border guards and customs officers who have been waiting at the Donetsk checkpoint in the Rostov Region for a week now. The capitals that display heightened concern for the situation in southeastern Ukraine are well aware of this. The endless artificial demands and pretexts have become unconscionable.

"It is no longer possible to tolerate this lawlessness, outright lies and inability to reach agreements. All pretexts for delaying the delivery of aid to people in the humanitarian disaster zone have been depleted. The Russian side has decided to act. Our humanitarian relief convoy is setting out towards Lugansk. Naturally, we are ready to allow ICRC officials to escort the convoy and to take part in distributing aid. We hope that representatives of the Russian Red Cross Society will also be able to take part in this mission.

"We are warning against any attempts to thwart this purely humanitarian mission which took a long time to prepare in conditions of complete transparency and cooperation with the Ukrainian side and the ICRC. Those who are ready to continue sacrificing human lives to their own ambitions and geopolitical designs and who are rudely trampling on the norms and principles of international humanitarian law will assume complete responsibility for the possible consequences of provocations against the humanitarian relief convoy. (emphasis added by the Saker)

"We are once again calling on the Ukrainian leadership, as well as the United States and the European Union, which are exerting their influence on Kiev, to promptly launch negotiations in southeastern Ukraine and start complying with the accords formalised in the 17 April 2014 Geneva Statement by Russia, Ukraine, the United States and the EU on stopping the use of force, mitigating the humanitarian situation and immediately launching nationwide dialogue that would involve all Ukrainian regions."

The rest is here:

Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

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