Trends in the Gold-Euro Cross

Sun, Aug 10, 2014 - 7:33pm

What can be done on the Gold-Euro cross rate in under twelve minutes and using trendlines only with nothing else?

I took a stab at the problem earlier today and here is the result.

It should be interesting to see how this holds up under the spotlight of unfolding events during the coming weeks and months.

Rhythm and Price Issue 173 10082014

Enjoy the rest of the weekend everybody,

Argentus Maximus

The author posts daily commentary on the gold and silver markets in the TFMR forum: The Setup For The Big Trade. More information about the author & his work can be found here: RhythmNPrice.

About the Author


Aug 10, 2014 - 7:39pm

Hundreds make mad dash to buy gold JFK coins at U.S. DenverMint

DENVER - People tripped, fell and were trampled as hundreds rushed to get in line at the U.S. Mint in Denver at 6 a.m. Thursday.

They were all after one thing - a gold JFK coin.

Around 350ppl waiting for 100 vouchers. Tense here outside #usmint. About mins to rush across street. @DenverChannel

— Pete Burd (@PeteBurd) August 7, 2014

The gold coins commemorate the 50th anniversary of the John F. Kennedy half dollar.

Initially, the Mint said it would make a limited number of sets available each day, Tuesday through Friday.

However, early Thursday morning, a Mint officer told 7NEWS this will be the last day they are available.

The Mint gave out 100 tickets to the first people in line, allowing them to purchase the coins.

However, people weren't officially allowed to line up in front of the Mint until 6 a.m. At 5 a.m. there were already dozens of people gathered across the street, ready to make the dash for the tickets.

More police arrive to assist handling growing crowd waiting for vouchers outside #USMint. Last 100 vouchers this AM.

— Pete Burd (@PeteBurd) August 7, 2014

At 6 a.m., the crowd rushed across the street.

"Crazy, bananas. B-A-N-A-N-A-S," said one successful man, as police worked to keep the crowd calm. "I got trampled, I fell down, I got back up. Because I'm a soldier."

A total of just 800 of the proof sets were available.

The 24-karat gold coin first went on sale Tuesday morning -- for $1,240. Some buyers said they were paid as much as $600 to stand in line for the coins.

sierra skier
Aug 10, 2014 - 7:39pm



Now to listen.

Spartacus Rex
Aug 10, 2014 - 8:00pm

@ Deacon Benjamin JFK Coins

Quite interesting how fast the fraudulent Paper Gold Mkts / Price snapped back up after that demonstration of physical demand, isn't it?

Cheers, S. Rex

Urban Roman
Aug 10, 2014 - 8:11pm

Thanks, Argentus.

Sometimes chartists use the Deutschmark, adjusted for a smooth transition, as a proxy for the Euro before 15 years ago.

Aug 10, 2014 - 8:26pm

@Urban Roman: Thanks. During

@Urban Roman:

Thanks. During the coming week I'll make up a long term price data file using DM, ending with EUR and see how it looks.

Aug 10, 2014 - 9:25pm

Dines prediction

Thanks Deacon for posting the dines interview on KWN. One of his predictions which he feels has already arrived is that we are at peak gold mining. Srsrocco has already shown that gold and silver grades are dropping dramatically; Exploration is falling dramatically also as both explorers and producers cut expenses. Hi-grading has commenced and mines are still depleting. At this near break even price of gold, mines that would continue to operate at an $1800 price (affording continued exploration and mining of lower grades) will have to be shut down prematurely. Throw in Rocco's peak oil, peak exportable oil, and collapsing EROI, and you now have a situation where we will never produce more gold than we are now.

This may take some time to affect the paper gold market, but the law of supply and demand will be eventually satisfied.

So It Goes
Aug 10, 2014 - 9:40pm


Subject: New Element Found

Discovery Announcement ~ The densest element in the known Universe has finally been found.

A major research institution has just announced the discovery of the densest element yet known to science. The new element has been named Pelosium. Pelosium has one neutron, 12 assistant neutrons, 75 deputy neutrons, and 223 assistant deputy neutrons, giving it an atomic mass of 311.

These particles are held together by dark forces called morons, which are surrounded by vast quantities of lepton-like particles called peons.

The symbol of Pelosium is PU.

Pelosium's mass actually increases over time, as morons randomly interact with various elements in the atmosphere and become assistant deputy neutrons within the Pelosium molecule, leading to the formation of isodopes.

This characteristic of moron-promotion leads some scientists to believe that Pelosium is formed whenever morons reach a certain quantity in voting concentration.

Spartacus Rex
Aug 10, 2014 - 9:46pm
Spartacus Rex
Aug 10, 2014 - 9:50pm

Short Squeeze Imminent

Gold Chart: Short Squeeze Imminent


Today I want to take a look at the gold weekly chart and what the underlying indicators are telling us. In this post, I've overlaid Bollinger Bands (BB) onto the five year weekly gold chart and included the BB Width indicator in the lower panel. Bollinger Bands consist of a middle band (dotted red line) with two outer bands (solid red lines). The middle band is a simple moving average set at 20 periods (20 weeks in this case). The outer bands are set two standard deviations above and below the middle band. The bands automatically widen when volatility increases and narrow when volatility decreases.

When calculating BB Width, the first step is to subtract the value of the lower band from the value of the upper band. This shows the absolute difference. This difference is then divided by the middle band, which normalizes the value. BB Width is simply a graphical representation of the volatility being measured by Bollinger Band overlay. The lower BB Width goes, the lower the volatility and the higher the BB Width goes, the higher the volatility. Not exactly an earth-shattering concept, but it can useful at certain times - such as now.

As I showed in my previous post, the Dow Jones Precious Metals Index, which represents large cap miners, recently broke up and out of a consolidation pattern and is now back-testing its old line of resistance. Gold, shown above, has an almost identical chart (RSI, MACD, consolidation, etc) exceptfor the fact that it is still coiling and has not broken out in either direction (yet). Starting in July 2013, it has made a series of higher lows and lower highs all the while trading in an ever-tightening band between $1,290 and $1,310.

That narrowing trading band is highlighted by the upper and lower Bollinger Bands getting closer and closer together. The decrease in volatility is probably easier to see when looking at the BB Width indicator (bottom panel). After peaking around 35 in July 2013, it has dropped to the current reading of 6.4, the natural level of support for the past five years (horizontal green line).

Let's now take everything the charts are telling us and see what predictions we can make:

  1. Price has made a series of higher lows since bottoming over 12 months ago.
  2. Price has made a series of lower highs during the same period.
  3. The trading range has been narrowing to a very tight band around $1,300/oz.
  4. MACD and RSI have been in a strong uptrend for over a year even though the gold price has moved sideways. This indicates significant underlying strength.
  5. The Bollinger Bands are the narrowest they've been in the last five years and BB Width has worked its way into a corner.
  6. The Dow Jones Precious Metals Index (DJGSP), displaying virtually the same price and indicator patterns, had a bullish breakout two months ago.

Taking all of this evidence into account, I will make the following educated predictions:

  1. We are going to see a bullish breakout in gold (MACD, RSI, and DJGSP confirmation)
  2. And it's going to happen very soon and it's going to be very powerful (extreme BB readings)

Aug 10, 2014 - 9:57pm

Hell I Don't Waste My Fiat On Numasmatics

To much of a Premium for those Kennedy's. By the way AM loved the video but hell I can't believe such a low will be possible in Feb. I hope not, as I'm Stacking Now. Lol

Video unavailable
Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Subscribe or login to read all comments.


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

Recent Comments

Forum Discussion

by Green Lantern, Oct 16, 2019 - 9:53pm
by zman, Oct 16, 2019 - 8:51pm
by NW VIEW, Oct 16, 2019 - 7:31pm
by ancientmoney, Oct 16, 2019 - 5:23pm