Improving

Hmmm. Maybe ole Turd's silly little lines and doodles have some merit, after all?

Again, I'll keep this brief and catch up in great detail in the podcast. Let's start with a close-up chart of gold so that you can clearly see the breakout which, if it holds and we close near here, is a very positive development along the path we've been projecting:

Here's an updated look at the one-year chart. Note the breakout. However, unless we close well above $1300 and the red line today, there still exists the possibility of falling back and churning through the blue oval. Therefore, watch closely.

Turning to silver...It has recovered back above $20 but it has a lot of work to do and I expect it to wallow and thrash a bit more here. First, it needs to close back above $20.20 and get out of the black support box. However, only once it gets back above $20.60 can we sound the all clear.

Just one other item to note...

Once again "The Bond Bears" are befuddled. Just last week, bonds appeared to be rolling over and all of the talk was again how the bond bear market was going to ruin so many folks. Hmmm. Not so fast, my friend. Remember, higher interest rates cannot and will not be allowed. Why? Higher rates bring about the rapid destruction of The Great Ponzi. It's as simple as that.

So, here we are. The Long Bond is back to 139 and the 10-year note is yielding the lowest rate in 13 months. (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-06/10y-yield-tumbles-13-month-lows-gold-jumps-surveying-mornings-carnage) As I type, the 10-year note is at 2.47% and the 30-year Long Bond is at 3.27%. Certainly not the 4% and 5% that nearly every sell-side analyst was predicting back in January...

As I wrap, I see that the Ukraine/Russia stuff continues to heat up. Here are two, recent headlines from ZH:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-06/more-warmongering-us-secretary-defense-nato-both-say-threat-russian-incursion-realit

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-06/russian-retaliation-putin-orders-ban-all-food-imports-sanctioning-countries-year

To that end, last night's Batchelor-Cohen discussion was terrific and I'll work next to get that posted asap.

Have a great and fun day.

TF

53 Comments

47 Protons's picture

Furst

Furst!  sweet!!

GOFO is Positive again +0.026

CPE's picture

Keep

Stacking!!!!!!!!!!

Looking good Louis!

Turd Ferguson's picture

Btw

MODERATOR

We discussed wheat in yesterday's podcast. Here's an update:


 

alivecatbounce's picture

Good call ,Turd though ....

Gold @ Resistance @ 1309$ , next resistance @ 1320$ . Chances are we are going lower from here ... Hope I am wrong though

Urban Roman's picture

Well, it's true ...

Silver has bounced off your bottom, where you said it would.

But until we hit $20.40 or more, we haven't broken the short term down trend.

mike97's picture

Thurd not counting Turd

Thanks - Ag and Au looking good.

Maestro's picture

witch

.

Turd Ferguson's picture

From the text of the post

MODERATOR

"Turning to silver...It has recovered back above $20 but it has a lot of work to do and I expect it to wallow and thrash a bit more here. First, it needs to close back above $20.20 and get out of the black support box. However, only once it gets back above $20.60 can we sound the all clear."

Turd Ferguson's picture

Of course

MODERATOR

Getting back above $1320 is very important.

Again, from the text of the post:

"However, unless we close well above $1300 and the red line today, there still exists the possibility of falling back and churning through the blue oval. Therefore, watch closely."

silverflower's picture

Wondering

why the Dow is so immune against everything. Now Putin moves closer to the East-Ukr. border, but DJ does not even care. At least not until now. Seems that the Plunge Protection Team is doing a nice job here. Supported by ultra cheap currency.

gearhead_24's picture

I guess when Citi Bank, BOA and others.....

quit providing 0% interest checks based on your credit card account 12 to 18 month's out is when we know the interest rates will be going up.

Just a guess.

GH

Barfly's picture

Vitamin C, Ebola, and Turdville

Good morning Turdville,

This article has come across the radar in my web research on the ebola outbreak. I feel it may be significant. I would appreciate it very much if the doctors resident in turdville could comment on the aspects of the article dealing with medical theory. There are some conspiratorial angles in the article as well, but I think those should be ignored. Please read this with an eye toward the treatment presented.

http://whitewraithe.wordpress.com/2014/08/04/breaking-news-anonymous-doctor-releases-treatment-for-the-ebola-virus/

If this turns out to medically sound theory, which I can't say because I'm not a doctor, I think it should be circulated widely. Thanks in advance for any help with this.

Barfly

Markedtofuture's picture

WHY THEY ARE MAKING AN ENEMY OF RUSSIA...

Clive Maund...

originally published July 23rd, 2014 

Charts and illustrations added on 31st July, with some revisions to the text.

If I was highly qualified University professor, I would probably be able to write a 600 page thesis on this subject, but you will be relieved to hear that I am not – as I value my time and yours, you are going to get a much more abbreviated interpretation of events.

If you are endowed with any independent powers of thought at all, you are probably aware that Russia and especially its President, Vladimir Putin, have been the target of an intense and relentless program of demonization and vilification all year, by Western elites and the media that they control. This has of course centered on and been promoted by the revolution in the Ukraine, and over the past week by the specific event of the shooting down of a civilian aircraft, which has been blamed on Russia.

Even taking into account that much of the recent anti-Russian propaganda is aimed at those with limited education and intelligence, it is astoundingly crude…

putinwalking.jpg

If you think that’s bad, try this….

nosoul.jpg

continued....http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=3251

Turd Ferguson's picture

Wheat surging even higher

MODERATOR

Turd Ferguson's picture

Perhaps a Russian FX warning shot?

MODERATOR

Seems interesting timing...just after the Russian sanction announcements...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-06/dollar-flash-crashes

amarula4's picture

Turd, the Fed cannot just say that interest rates will be low...

they have to get into the market and party hearty with the bid stack. So, not quite as simple: "Once again "The Bond Bears" are befuddled. Just last week, bonds appeared to be rolling over and all of the talk was again how the bond bear market was going to ruin so many folks. Hmmm. Not so fast, my friend. Remember, higher interest rates cannot and will not be allowed. Why? Higher rates bring about the rapid destruction of The Great Ponzi. It's as simple as that."

No offence I hope.

Turd Ferguson's picture

No offense taken

MODERATOR

But it seems that you are assuming that "QE taper" is real and swallowing the line that The Fed is "normalizing" it's balance sheet.

This is NOT the case. QE is to infinity and Fed involvement and direct monetization cannot and will not ever end.

Owtovit's picture

Moscow students wish Woody happy birthday

surprise  http://www.ridus.ru/news/164970

edit: can anyone translate the story?

SS121's picture

russian students to Obama... rough translation

Обамыли скульптуру «Равнодушие», разукрашенную в цвета американского фМосковские студенты организовали лазерное поздравление для Барака 

​it says..

to komrad obamski, czar putin's bitchzki and partner in failing to topple u.s.a., since you make good try and you have birthday, if you were here we give you a giant reggie love banana in person, rignt in your Bapaka!

In article 9dd4db61df

Urban Roman's picture

I was just agreein' with ya,

I was just agreein' with ya, Turd. Though I did post that before reading the whole text.

Starting to thing there may be something to this TA stuff ... like you say, because of manipulation. It'd be a lot more chaotic if it weren't artificially limited now and then.

But I'm starting to wonder if there are any humans left in the market at all...

crylandjr's picture

Interest rates

Turd, your point about interest rates being suppressed to keep the Ponzi going has basically been my assumption for several years. I have moments of doubt though, a year or so ago I saw a few videos by a Don Harrold (spelling?) who's YouTube channel is called the day trade show. Some of his analysis seemed cogent but he dismissed the idea that rates must stay low, and called AG a lousy inflation hedge. He seemed to think "they" could engineer DJIA @50,000 and AG @-50.  It seems to me looking at the parabolic debt that TPTB just don't have that much power. Just my $0.02, I'm grateful for your point of view. Worth more than $10 month!

@barfly

your link reminds me of the Spanish flu story, credible evidence on the interwebs that what caused the high mortality rate back then was the massive doses of aspirin? or some such drug who's side effects were vitamin C depletion. Worth googling, I think Bill Sardi wrote about it. 

cheers

Turd Ferguson's picture

I think the only humans left

MODERATOR

I think the only humans left are the Cartel Monkeys. "Everyone" else is just an algo chasing a dot on a screen. This is particularly true in silver where something like 30 large traders make up the bulk of the Large Spec category. 

And this nonsense is what passes as a "market" that allegedly sets the free and fair price of silver...

Turd Ferguson's picture

This is fun

MODERATOR
Kansascrude's picture

The Limp Crap that passes for news these days is disgusting

Infometron posted

"CNBS just reported the U.S. will overtake Saudi Arabia and Russia in  the production of oil and gas by 2035"

Todays EIA summary report contained the following update:

"Total Commercial Petroleum Inventories decreased by 8.4 million barrels last week

http//ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf

Petroleum Inventories sans Propane have been decreasing every week for a least the last 5 weeks.  So how can prices continue declining with the reality of the high risk political environment.  Paper Oil is being used to slam prices.  One more example of U.S. Hegemony robbing the productive sectors.  Looking at 2nd quarter  earnings reports has been pretty depressing as many are reporting they can't (or barely can) make money even at $100 oil and their production is decreasing.  I think Exxon confirmed last week.  Meanwhile we have CNBS spouting the Party Line outproducing S.A. and Russia by 2035.  The only way thats going to happen is if they are all producing next to freaking nothing.  My lord does anyone in the gubmint or media tell the truth anymore on relevant data.....My guess would be the reduction in imports(relating to decreasing inventories) probably also played a significant factor in the Petroleum Trade Deficit declining a bit last month.  Probably no one reviewed the declining inventories as a relevant factor there......what a CLUSTER

SRSROCCO has the topic well corralled and one more reason to make his site a regular stop

Owtovit's picture

@SS121

Brilliant!......

Bapaka?.......oh wait let me guess........Chewbacca?

PS: luv your insight on the situation in Ukraine....please keep it up and best wishes to your family there

Turd Ferguson's picture

Very nice price strength into

MODERATOR

Very nice price strength into and just after the Comex close.

At $1309.30 the Dec gold is off just $1.30 from its highs of the day.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Maybe this is all natural and

MODERATOR

Maybe this is all natural and organic...

but

I'm feeling more and more that this is direct intervention to purposefully lower crude so as to "punish" Putin and Russia:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-06/wti-crude-tumbles-under-97-fresh-6-month-lows

Owtovit's picture

A woody present?

A woody present?

Lamenting Laverne's picture

Can anyone expain

why oil is falling hard in this environment?

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