"Laundry Day" and Some Gold and Dow Rhythms

57
Sun, Aug 3, 2014 - 7:25pm

Did you know the Market "Laundry" is a hundred years old! We should not be surprised that Wall St failed to bring attention to this by having a party! The newbies and regulators are not supposed to know about it ..... nudge nudge, wink wink!

Rhythm and Price Issue 171 03082014

I'm still tweaking the Audio visual format for these blog contributions to improve them. Suggestions by PM are most welcome.

Have a great weekend everybody!

Argentus Maximus

The author posts daily commentary on the gold and silver markets in the TFMR forum: The Setup For The Big Trade. More information about the author & his work can be found here: RhythmNPrice.

About the Author

  57 Comments

treefrog
Aug 3, 2014 - 7:33pm

furst!

1st! ready for good news!

silver66
Aug 3, 2014 - 7:35pm

second

Go Rory !

Silver66

Spartacus Rex
Aug 3, 2014 - 7:42pm

No Tickey, No Laundry!

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silver66
Aug 3, 2014 - 7:49pm
DayStar
Aug 3, 2014 - 7:53pm

Harvey's Up! (TFMR)

Harvey's Up! https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/621187#comment-621187

  • Mark O'Byrne: Gold prices have been in lockdown in a range bound month. The spread between July's high and low was just $57.54. This is the narrowest in seven years - the June 2007 range was $54.70. This was right before the global financial crisis. In 2007, gold began to move up aggressively in September (see chart above). On September 1, it was trading at $672/oz. By early March 2008, it was over $1,000/oz - for a gain of nearly 50% of just 7 months. Were gold to replicate the gains seen in that period in the coming months, gold would trade over $1,900 and close to new record nominal highs by the 2nd quarter of 2015. The real record high, adjusted for inflation, is of course $2,400/oz. We continue to believe it will be reached before 2020.
  • Harvey: Today gold rose as we have finished with both Comex options expiry and OTC options expiry. Gold rose its mandatory 1% and then capped by our banker friends. At the Comex, the amount of gold standing still remains very high at 25.57 tonnes. Also the September month shows a huge 7376 contracts standing (737600 oz or 22.94 tonnes). In silver, the open interest again continues to rise and tonight it rests at 160,497 contracts. We have quite a few important stories to send your way tonight: First: the ISDA reported that the Argentinean default is a credit event and now we will witness the auction to see how much loss our major bankers will encompass. Second: BES bank in Portugal collapsed in price by 40% down to 12 cents today. Then they suspended trading with an announcement scheduled tonight. They will probably default on their bonds which will trigger a bail in. Say tuned. Third: in the USA the jobs report showed gains at 209,000 workers much less than expected. European bourses collapsed on fears of a systemic problem in Portugal. The Dow and NASDAQ after being down badly in the morning, fared somewhat better, with the Dow down only 69 points.
  • Mark O'Byrne on the seasonality of gold: Gold’s traditional period of strength is from early August into the autumn and early winter. Thus, early August is generally a good time to buy after the seasonal dip. Late summer, autumn and early New Year are the seasonally strong periods for the gold market due to robust physical demand internationally. This is the case especially in Asia for weddings and festivals and into year end and for Chinese New Year when voracious China stocks up on gold. Gold’s weakest months since 1975 have been June and July. Buying gold in early August has been a good trade for most of the last 34 years and especially in the last nine years, averaging a gain of nearly 13% in just six months after the summer low.
  • Matthew Daneman (Rochester, NY Democrat & Chronicle): Eastman Kodak Co. has joined a long line of companies accusing a collection of financial and commodities giants of colluding to artificially pump up the price of aluminum. Kodak filed a lawsuit in U.S. District Court for the Western District of New York, complaining that such parties as Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co., and the London Metal Exchange Ltd. were part of a conspiracy to violate the federal Sherman Antitrust Act and New York's Donnelly Law. The defendants are facing dozens of similar such suits that were filed around the country before being consolidated in December 2013 to the Southern District of New York and Judge Katherine B. Forrest.
  • lasdair Macleod (GoldMoney): Whichever way we look at Fiat Money Quantity (FMQ), it continues to expand at a frightening pace irrespective of the GDP outturn and the flaws in the way it's reported. Furthermore, a look at the most recent Fed balance sheet confirms the fiat money expansion, showing that the 1st August fiat money figure will be considerably higher than previous months, unless there is an offsetting contraction of bank credit. There is little sign of any such contraction. We can conclude from short-term market interest rates that the US economy is going nowhere fast, contrary to this week's GDP estimate, and that demand for credit continues to come from essentially financial activities. But given that GDP estimates turn out to be far too optimistic, what if the US economy stalls or even slumps? Won't that lead to a reversal of FMQ's growth trend? This is essentially the argument of the deflationists. In a slump they expect a dash from credit into cash as asset prices tumble. The counterpart of credit is deposits, the major components of FMQ. And without Fed intervention FMQ would rapidly contract. But in the event of a slump the Fed cannot be expected to stand idly by without taking extraordinary measures.
  • Zero Hedge: Quietly, and without the drama associated with The Fed and ECB, China unveiled what looks like QE recently (as we discussed in detail here). Whether this is a stealth creation of a 'fannie-mae' structure to support housing or merely another channel for the PBOC to shovel out hole-filling liquidity is unclear. However, one thing is very clear,demand for CNY is surging (even as the PBOC weakens its fixing) and the Shanghai Composite is surging as hot money chases free money once again. The Yuan has rallied for 8 days straight as PBOC weakened its Fix. The Chinese stock market has quietly surged to its highest since December - outperforming the Dow now year-to-date.
  • Tyler Durden: China's official manufacturing PMI beat expectations by the most since Nov 2013 and jumped to its highest since April 2012 - sure it did after all the forget-the-reforms liquidity, QE-lite, and local government spending dragged forward. Perhaps worryingly the steel industry saw domestic and export new orders crater (from 55.7 to 48.2 in July). The employment sub-index fell once again (now in contraction since May 2012) as large enterprises dominated the upbeat report (medium and small clinging to 50.1 PMIs). Japan's PMI dropped for the first time in 3 months from 50.8 to 50.5 with output contracting and payrolls only marginally positive (slowest since August 2013). Manufacturers in Japan reported a fall in output from a previous month of growth during July. That said, the rate of contraction was only fractional. According to panellists, the increase in the sales tax was still having a detrimental effect on production levels.
  • Zero Hedge: Looks like it will be a busty weekend for European leaders calling the crisis over. Knife-catching 'value' investors have been torn asunder as Banco Espirito Santo's stock crashed another 40% today to 12c and has now been suspended by Portugal's securities regulator. Banco Espirito Santo shares are suspended pending information, CMVM says With Goldman bailing and the sovereign suggesting it is not willing to bailout, it appears - based on Sub debt's collapse - that a bail-in burden-sharing solution is coming.
  • Alisa Odenheimer and David Wainer (Bloomberg): A three-day truce between Israel’s army and Hamas unraveled within hours today as a surge in fighting claimed the lives of Palestinians and Israel said it suspected one of its soldiers had been seized. Israeli Prime MinisterBenjamin Netanyahusaid Hamas was responsible for breaking the cease-fire accord with an attack on its forces around an hour after the truce began. He said the military will take “necessary action” against militants. Gaza Health Ministry official Ashraf al-Qedra said by cellphone message that Israeli tanks had fired shells near Rafah in southern Gaza, killing four people and wounding six. The Associated Press said that as many as 35 Palestinians had died. Commenting on the suspected capture of a soldier, Israeli army spokesman Lt. Col. Peter Lerner said troops destroying a tunnel were attacked by militants. DS: He reportedly died.
  • Tyler Durden: Moments ago ISDA, which yesterday was queried whether a CDS-triggering credit event had taken place in Argentina, made a ruling. Here it is: The Americas [Determinations Committee] met on August 1, 2014 and resolved that a Failure to Pay Credit Event in relation to the Argentine Republic occurred on July 30, 2014. Surprised? Look who is on the ISDA Americas determinations committee.
  • Zero Hedge: For India the problem with a Japanese alliance is that it would also by implication involve the US, the country which has become insolvent and demographically imploding Japan's backer of last and only resort, and thus burn its bridges with both Russia and China. A question emerged: would India embrace the US/Japan axis while foregoing its natural Developing Market, and BRICS, allies, Russia and China. We now have a clear answer and it is a resounding no, because in what was the latest slap on the face of now crashing on all sides US global hegemony, earlier today India refused to sign a critical global trade dea.Specifically, India's unresolved demands led to the collapse of the first major global trade reform pact in two decades. WTO ministers had already agreed the global reform of customs procedures known as "trade facilitation" in Bali, Indonesia, last December, but were unable to overcome last minute Indian objections and get it into the WTO rule book by a July 31 deadline.

All this and more on...

The Harvey Report!

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/621187#comment-621187

DayStar

AC_Doctor
Aug 3, 2014 - 8:05pm

Ebola terror at Gatwick UK airport

Ebola terror at Gatwick as passenger collapses and dies getting off Sierra Leone flight

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ebola-terror-gatwick-passenger-collapses-3977051#ixzz39NREIDgZ

This shit is gonna get real spooky soon... AC

Spartacus Rex
Aug 3, 2014 - 8:12pm

@ AM So FNV vs. RGLD? Dow vs the SPOO?

Are you charting Euro, Oil and Bonds vs Gold?

Cheers, S. Rex

Aug 3, 2014 - 8:17pm

Euro against gold, yes. I

Euro against gold, yes. I look at gold against USD, GBP, EUR and JPY.

The bonds I chart each against their home currency a short and a long for each, and oil (both Brent and WTI) I watch in dollars.

Spartacus Rex
Aug 3, 2014 - 8:27pm

@ AM What No CHF?

So, no comparison charting vs the S&P, Oil, Bonds then?

Exactly what are your 21-day linear regression trends telling you at the moment.

Or is that still too "dangerous" to make any predictions in your eyes?

Cheers, S. Rex

Marchas45
Aug 3, 2014 - 8:29pm

@AM

Not very positive for my Silver there Jimmy, hopefully you missed something and prices go up like I believe they will. As for a possibility of hitting 18, My God are you trying to give us a heart attack? LMAO Keep Stacking

P.S. I have a good feeling about this week as I just bought a bunch of PM's this past week. Lol

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