Price Stabilization is a Manipulation; How High It Goes is Now Public Information

Sun, Jul 20, 2014 - 11:53am

Let us look at the process of forecasting the future for a moment.

A train arrives at the destination station, after it leaves from the departure station, there is a gap of time allocated for the journey. Forecasting arrival time is relatively easy provided time of departure information is available.

I think it might be said I have a 99%+ chance of a successful forecast.

Let us now develop this idea but making things a little more difficult.

Two cars leave from the same place at the same time, in a race. But they may take any route the drivers choose. We know the distance in total, and can make a reasonable guess as to when they may arrive. But there are gaps in the information available. Which driver is the faster of the two? Which driver knows the roads better and will choose the route which gets a balance of shortness of distance, and avoiding trouble spots for traffic?

This time a forecast as to when they will arrive is tougher than the trains question. But I can have a go, and knowing the drivers abilities, let’s say I get it right 75% of the time.

Next question: given the same two race drivers above, but now there is an extra complicating factor:

Each driver must fill his fuel tank to complete the race. But the filling guy may choose loyalty to one of the two drivers, and is going to fill up the tank of the one but will deny fuel to the other!

Aaah! Now my chances of forecasting successfully have fallen to 50%, which is no better than random. Oh well, at least it’s random! I could win every second time like a flip of a coin.

So now I go down to the bookies to place a bet that I will win the forecasting challenge. I can expect to win half the time, so it's cheap entertainment! While I’m waiting in the queue to place my bet, I happen to notice the fuel guy is also waiting to place a bet himself. Actually he’s standing behind me in the queue!

Chances of success .... zero!

Let’s break it down:

A battle of skill speed and power. I was doing fine.

Add shifting sands of loyalty, I was still in with a chance.

Add loss of priority of access to essential information with that knowledge available to an opponent ... no chance.

OK so let’s change the subject. Anyone for trading the stock market? Gold? How about silver? Anyone?

If we stop placing bets, betting margin income is falling for the bookie as a result of reduced turnover, so he reduces his margins. It’s cheaper to bet now. Any takers? Hey! You! The new guy over there! Come over here! I have an amazing opportunity to tell you about ...... oh yes, bring your money too!

Here is a recent development which has similar overtones:

CME Group Cutting Margins For Gold, Silver, Copper Futures

Now it is an interesting question why the CME would be experiencing falling volume of trading? Surely it can’t be due to a perception, spreading, that the dice might be loaded in a way fatal to their client customer investor-traders?

There are a multitude of ways that could happen. But here is just one for today. Since it goes to the top I think it deserves prime place for our attention.

In the light of the above everyone not already aware about this should have a darned good read of this report:

The Fed in Danger

So Fed Chair Janet Yellen - the Head of The Fed meets the Secretary of the Treasury weekly.

Given the Fed's QE, That’s the biggest buyer of bonds meeting the biggest seller of bonds.

And interest rates, the yield of those bonds, forms the basis for calculating the value of everything financial, every single thing! "Stabilized" (to use their euphemism) interest rates = manipulated everything!

And they won't say what is discussed!

It's bizarre that it's so out in the open.

Are you still so sure you want to play those markets now?

Take delivery. Remember Jim Sinclair's advice about GOTS! Expect these people in the global Central Banker-Government partnership to change the rules whenever they see fit to achieve their ends.

Best regards!

Argentus Maximus

The author posts daily commentary on the gold and silver markets in the TFMR forum: The Setup For The Big Trade. More information about the author & his work can be found here: RhythmNPrice.

About the Author


Jul 20, 2014 - 12:20pm



​nice read

Jul 20, 2014 - 12:34pm

Could Not Agree More

G.O.T.S. (Get Out of The System) seems to be the best advise of the last decade. Life is much calmer out here.

Very well put together perspective of how dangerous and stacked against the average person the markets are.


Jul 20, 2014 - 1:36pm



Jul 20, 2014 - 2:06pm

A/M, beautiful in simplicity.

Clarity is one of your forte's, among many others. Thank you for all of your valuable contributions to us Turdites.

boomer sooner
Jul 20, 2014 - 2:32pm

Thanks AM, I especially liked

Thanks AM, I especially liked the last paragraph of the Sun's article. Maybe a level under the .1% will start to make waves for change. Since the bottom is being satisfied with handouts, the ire of the middle is where the smoke becomes fire.

Feature, after all, the remarks in May by Paul Volcker, Mrs. Yellen’s illustrious predecessor. He reprised the era of fiat money that has obtained since the collapse of Bretton Woods in the 1970s and declared: “By now I think we can agree that the absence of an official, rules-based, cooperatively managed monetary system has not been a great success.” Surely Mrs. Yellen must know that there are millions of Americans who are coming to comprehend the truth of Mr. Volcker’s words and are growing impatient with the Fed Congress created.

Jul 20, 2014 - 3:04pm

"Manipulation" legalized in the 1930s

A "system" born out of deception and founded on fake money, and in which "manipulation" of all things within the system was declared legal...

Excellent points all A.M.! Especially that now the interest rate chart is an admitted fake. Man, this is gettin good!


Jul 20, 2014 - 3:20pm

Ankara proposes free trade plans to Russia

Ankara has put forward a plan to form a free trade zone with the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, the Russian economy minister reportedly said after holding talks with his Turkish counterpart, amid Turkey’s mounting frustration with the European Union over a similar scheme.

During the G-20 trade ministers meeting in Sydney, the Russian Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said that the Turkish Economy Minister Nihat Zeybekci had proposed in establishing a scheme that would lift trade barriers between the two parties, according to the Russian news agency RIA Novosti.

“We have discussed the possibility of cooperating [with one another], including the formation of a free trade zone between the Customs Union [Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan] and Turkey. We have agreed to create a working group and to begin a more detailed discussion of these possibilities and prospects in September [this year],” Ulyukayev reportedly said.

The Customs Union between Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, was launched as a step towards forming an economic alliance between the former Soviet states.

Turkey has been expressing its frustration over its Customs Union alliance with European Union, arguing that the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) scheme between the U.S. and the EU would cause great damage to its economy if such a deal were to be reached.

Nevertheless, the U.S. has repeatedly mentioned that it would prefer if Turkey were to join a U.S.-EU trade pact by agreeing on a scheme with the latter.

The trade volume between Russia and Turkey amounted to $32.7 billion in 2013 with Russia now becoming Turkey’s second-largest trade partner after the European Union, while Turkey ranking eighth among Russia’s foreign trade partners.

RIA Novosti also reported Zeybekci as proposing to renew talks on using national currencies in bilateral trade to curb dependence on the U.S. dollar.

Jul 20, 2014 - 3:22pm
Jul 20, 2014 - 3:29pm

China, India driving force behind BRICS

Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

By Wei Wei

Against the background of a stable recovery of world economy, the 6th BRICS leaders meeting from July 15 to 16 at Fortaleza, Brazil, with the theme of Sustainable Solutions for Inclusive Growth, is definitely among most important international events in the second half of this year. It is also an important event for China-India relations since President Xi Jinping of China has had his first ever meeting with the new Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the summit. The BRICS has become an important force in coping with the international financial crisis, in driving global economic growth, and in promoting democratisation of international relations.

When the global economy was bogged down in the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, it was the BRICS, with stable economic growth of its members that carried forward the spirit of solidarity, injected hope into the market and prevented the global economy from falling apart. The BRICS countries are not only building upon their own strength, but also make efforts to help others. Despite the financial need for their own economy, BRICS contributed a total sum of $180 billion to the International Monetary Fund in two rounds and the efforts were well commended by the international community.

BRICS is highlighted by pragmatic cooperation in major projects. The BRICS New Development Bank (NDB) and the Financial Contingency Reserve Arrangement (CRA), which were first initiated during the 2012 BRICS summit in India, has become reality in the Fortaleza summit. The NDB and CRA will not only benefit the BRICS countries, but also provide finance to infrastructure projects in emerging markets and other developing countries. It is also aimed to assist them to better withstand risks from international financial turbulence.

Other key economic cooperative projects such as joint financing by respective development banks, cooperation among industrial and business enterprises and the economic and trade liaison group will also inject new momentum for development of the BRICS countries.

As the world's two most populous and largest developing countries as well as the founding members of the BRICS, China and India are firm supporters and active participants of the cooperation among the BRICS countries, and always take cooperation with other BRICS countries as one of the priorities in their foreign policy. China and India are also good neighbours, good friends and good partners that have established a strategic and cooperative partnership for peace and prosperity. Both countries are now facing a historical mission of growing the economy and improving people's livelihood. The China-India bilateral cooperation and their cooperation under the BRICS framework are complementary to each other.

Our major projects include the BCIM Economic Corridor, the Chinese-style industrial parks in India, railway cooperation, and initiatives of the Silk Road Economic Belt and cooperation along the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. We are also working for a "Trans-Himalayas Economic Growth Region" driven by double-engine of China and India. All the cooperation can be benefited from the BRICS cooperation mechanism. China and India should establish a closer partnership of development to promote more integration of market, greater financial linkage, better connectivity of infrastructure as well as closer people-to-people contacts, and thus to bring our people tangible benefits.

boomer sooner
Jul 20, 2014 - 3:34pm

New silver technology

“Metal mesh, sliver nanowires, and other new materials will be used in the production of larger displays with better sheet resistance at affordable prices, and these new materials might be used for curved or flexible-touch sensors soon,” said Shoko Oi, deputy director of touch panel and emerging display research for NPD DisplaySearch.

Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

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