Let us look at the process of forecasting the future for a moment.
A train arrives at the destination station, after it leaves from the departure station, there is a gap of time allocated for the journey. Forecasting arrival time is relatively easy provided time of departure information is available.
I think it might be said I have a 99%+ chance of a successful forecast.
Let us now develop this idea but making things a little more difficult.
Two cars leave from the same place at the same time, in a race. But they may take any route the drivers choose. We know the distance in total, and can make a reasonable guess as to when they may arrive. But there are gaps in the information available. Which driver is the faster of the two? Which driver knows the roads better and will choose the route which gets a balance of shortness of distance, and avoiding trouble spots for traffic?
This time a forecast as to when they will arrive is tougher than the trains question. But I can have a go, and knowing the drivers abilities, let’s say I get it right 75% of the time.
Next question: given the same two race drivers above, but now there is an extra complicating factor:
Each driver must fill his fuel tank to complete the race. But the filling guy may choose loyalty to one of the two drivers, and is going to fill up the tank of the one but will deny fuel to the other!
Aaah! Now my chances of forecasting successfully have fallen to 50%, which is no better than random. Oh well, at least it’s random! I could win every second time like a flip of a coin.
So now I go down to the bookies to place a bet that I will win the forecasting challenge. I can expect to win half the time, so it's cheap entertainment! While I’m waiting in the queue to place my bet, I happen to notice the fuel guy is also waiting to place a bet himself. Actually he’s standing behind me in the queue!
Chances of success .... zero!
Let’s break it down:
A battle of skill speed and power. I was doing fine.
Add shifting sands of loyalty, I was still in with a chance.
Add loss of priority of access to essential information with that knowledge available to an opponent ... no chance.
OK so let’s change the subject. Anyone for trading the stock market? Gold? How about silver? Anyone?
If we stop placing bets, betting margin income is falling for the bookie as a result of reduced turnover, so he reduces his margins. It’s cheaper to bet now. Any takers? Hey! You! The new guy over there! Come over here! I have an amazing opportunity to tell you about ...... oh yes, bring your money too!
Here is a recent development which has similar overtones:
CME Group Cutting Margins For Gold, Silver, Copper Futures
Now it is an interesting question why the CME would be experiencing falling volume of trading? Surely it can’t be due to a perception, spreading, that the dice might be loaded in a way fatal to their client customer investor-traders?
There are a multitude of ways that could happen. But here is just one for today. Since it goes to the top I think it deserves prime place for our attention.
In the light of the above everyone not already aware about this should have a darned good read of this report:
The Fed in Danger
So Fed Chair Janet Yellen - the Head of The Fed meets the Secretary of the Treasury weekly.
Given the Fed's QE, That’s the biggest buyer of bonds meeting the biggest seller of bonds.
And interest rates, the yield of those bonds, forms the basis for calculating the value of everything financial, every single thing! "Stabilized" (to use their euphemism) interest rates = manipulated everything!
And they won't say what is discussed!
It's bizarre that it's so out in the open.
Are you still so sure you want to play those markets now?
Take delivery. Remember Jim Sinclair's advice about GOTS! Expect these people in the global Central Banker-Government partnership to change the rules whenever they see fit to achieve their ends.