Sun, Jun 22, 2014 - 9:07am

Yes, I and many others expect a rally...a significant the 2nd half of this year. So this post is one to bookmark as we'll discuss the various points on the chart where we can expect resistance to emerge. (It's also a cheap reason to post this video again).

That song by Muse has long been an "anthem" here at TFMR. "Resistance" and "Uprising" were both BIG sounds back in 2010 and 2011 and they remain no less relevant today as the forces of encroaching tyranny have only grown stronger and more outlandish.

"Kill your prayers for love and peace. You'll wake The Thought Police."

So, with that as a backdrop, where might we find chart to resistance to the rally that is, most assuredly coming? (And, again, NOT just because the painted chart says so. The London gold is "Gone...For Good" and the eventual realization of this will spur the rally to eventual new highs and beyond.)

Let's start with gold. For a plethora reasons, gold will NOT be breaking down through The Double Bottom low of $1180. It will. instead, reverse course by later this month and then begin a slow-momentum build through the 2nd half of 2014. First and foremost, gold must cross these two red lines on this daily chart:

But we're just getting started, though, and if gold is indeed going to rally all the way to 00 and beyond, we certainly can't expect just an endless series of UPticks. There will be stopping points along the way where "overboughtedness" will need to be worked off before the trend can continue higher. ("Resistance points, you seek. Searching for stopping points, you are." -- a little Yoda love for you.) On this weekly chart, quite a few lines emerge. The first major line of resistance will be at 20. After that...well you can see where it's not going to be easy.

Turning to silver, as in gold I DO NOT expect new lows. After the complete and total washout of last June, price has yet to return to .20 and I don't think it will this time, either. Especially not with The Specs having already built a larger short position than at the bottom last year. So, if a turnaround is an eventuality, where will silver encounter resistance? On the daily chart below, you can once again see all of the lines we've been watching, namely .20, .20 and .60.

And the weekly chart holds a very important clue. Recall the effort expended earlier to keep silver below the main trendline that stretches back to the highs of 2011. Well look how close we are to finally wedging into the corner created by that line and the MAJOR SUPPORT of . Moving through this line and heading back toward and then will be your sign that the long, slow, arduous decline is finally over and a new BULL has begun. Breaking , then and then will be mileposts along the way to a full recovery and beyond.

Again, I urge you to bookmark this page and save it for future reference. The 2nd half of this year and then 2015 are going to be very interesting times to be alive. Prepare accordingly.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jun 11, 2014 - 11:09am

And this is getting worser and worser

Watch these events closely...

Jun 11, 2014 - 11:11am



Jun 11, 2014 - 11:15am

God, al-Qaeda has modern

God, al-Qaeda has modern military hardware AND $400 million dollars now.

I'm pretty sure the administration had a hand in this. It's way, way, WAY too convenient.

Jun 11, 2014 - 11:24am

God, al-Queda....

Yeah, the administration did have a hand in it. The Bush-Cheney administration.

47 Protons
Jun 11, 2014 - 11:26am



Well, that was fun (NOT!) Finally, after 6 weeks, JNUG is back above water for me!! Sorry, I forgot to tell everyone I was buying on 4/28... As part of my new service... "trade opposite eric". ;-)

Jun 11, 2014 - 11:28am

And again, contemplate the

And again, contemplate the geo-political aspects of this. These ISIS cats are Bad Dudes and Sunni. Enemies of Iran and current government of Iraq. Allies to "rebels" in Syria. Thus also enemies of Turkey but maybe slightly allied with Saudi.

A complete and total mess is unfolding here with tremendous risks and uncertainty ahead. For now, there is a reluctance to drive crude through $105. Well, we'll see about that and keep in mind how gold was rallying last summer with crude during the Syrian nonsense that Woody tried to pull. Could we be headed there for real this time? If so, just another reason to expect a sharp turnaround and reversal in gold in the 2nd half.

Jun 11, 2014 - 11:32am

Such declarative statements

Man, oh man... How many other people out there looking at (manipulated, painted) charts are just as certain about the scenario you've outlined as you are? What an opportunity for the manipulators of the casino to herd everyone into the same position and then pull the rug right out from underneath them. Anyone remember April, 2013 and how the charts looked then? It was only a year ago. Weren't they awfully similar, even more convincing in fact, with that quadruple bottom at $1525 (gold) Turd mentioned the other day?

I don't know about anyone else, but my gut tells me to keep the powder dry. Are there any indicators other than the chart that say this market is going to break to the upside? Is there any smart money getting positions? Are SLV and GLD getting an influx of investors? Is there any fear out there in the mass of sheeple? Any indication of doubt whatsoever that the financial system is sound? We're in a fairy tale bizzarro world market where fundamentals don't count for anything. Who in the public cares about the cost of production for gold and silver? I remember once the price of crude dropped to half of the cost of production. I suppose all that could turn on a dime, but because of how a chart looks, I don't think so...

Sighting in the scope. Keeping the powder dry.

Urban Roman
Jun 11, 2014 - 11:35am

Question about that $400 million

Did they get a cashier's check for the money? Is it in used $10s and $20s? Or is it Dinars in some form? How big a suitcase did they need to carry it in?

The reason I ask this is, my local bank branch got robbed a few years ago, and I think the robbers got $4000.00, approximately. That was all the cash they had on hand. They keep less now. If I want cash (more than $500) from that bank, I have to ask beforehand, and wait a day or two.

Jun 11, 2014 - 11:37am

$430 Million?

Is that in gold, or toilet paper?

Patriot Family
Jun 11, 2014 - 11:37am

Militants $430 million richer

I find it hard to believe there will not be a massive attempt to sweep this news under the carpet. If I were in our intelligence services and still a patriot I would be very, very worried about this. The AQ operatives aren't stupid, they'll move that money quickly and it will be hard to track down. Meanwhile, I wouldn't be surprised to see a US strike on hardware located at that airport. Doubtful it has any equipment on board that would compromise our own security, but they are still flying weapons platforms.

Edited to add: some mention on ZeroHedge of possibility these guys were trained and equipped by the US.

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

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