Waiting on The Fellen

Wed, Apr 30, 2014 - 12:46pm

As Keith would say...."I'm not waiting on my lady. I'm just waiting on a Fellen."

The world holds its collective breath. Not at the events in Ukraine. No, not even at the changing alliance in the Middle East. Nope. Today, the world awaits an update from the all-powerful Fellen. Friggin ridiculous.

Just as ridiculous as the notion, put forth now for over five years, that The Fed is going to monetize the debt in order to "stimulate economic growth". That this lie continues to be spewed and believed is a scathing indictment of a number of things:

  • The level of economic education in the US and the world
  • The level of apathy in the US and the world
  • The level to which the financial media is complicit and in the back pocket of The Banks

If quantitative easing was about "growth" and "jobs", shouldn't it be clear to all by now that it is a complete, 100% dismal failure? Should not today's paltry 0.10% Q1 GDP growth be evidence that The Fed should immediately halt all debt monetization and reverse course? Of course! The fact that they won't (CAN'T) is just further evidence that I am correct in my analysis. I'll state it again for anyone with a short attention span:

The Fed cannot and will not EVER eliminate quantitative easing. QE is NOT about economic growth. It is about funding the debt and deficit of the United States and keeping interest rates at extraordinarily low and unnatural levels. Without The Fed, and now the ECB, providing $80-100B/month for US Treasury debt and TBTF Bank subsidies, three things would happen:

  1. The Zombie Banks would fail
  2. Liquidity-dependent paper markets around the world would fail
  3. Interest rates would rise dramatically from the current 2.62% on the 10-year and 3.46% on the 30-year

Frankly, The Fed/US Govt can handle and work around both #1 and #2. It's #3 that they cannot allow, at all costs.

Currently, servicing the already-accumulated debt requires a huge annual budget expense. For fiscal year 2013, the total was $415.6B. (https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/ir/ir_expense.htm) AND THAT IS AT AN AVERAGE MATURITY OF UNDER FOUR YEARS AND A COUPON OF LESS THAN 3%!! If short term rates were to rise or if maturities were extended, the interest component of the US's budget would begin to grow exponentially. THIS CANNOT BE ALLOWED as the entire Ponzi will quickly unravel and The U.S. Empire will go the way of The Romans, the Ottomans, the French and the Germans...just to name a few. Now, don't get me wrong, THIS WILL HAPPEN EVENTUALLY. IT IS A MATHEMATICAL CERTAINTY. However, The Fed/US Govt will do everything in their power to push back the eventuality. Thus you have:

  • QE to infinity
  • Unlimited manipulation of every paper market, from equities to bonds to currencies to metals
  • SPIN, MOPE and outright falsehoods regarding economic data
  • Endless drumbeat toward war to create a "safe haven" bid for sovereign bonds

I could go on and on with this extraordinarily important subject as this is the basis of this site...The End of The Great Keynesian Experiment. For now, though, it's best to keep moving. The week is only half done and we've got a long way to go until Friday.

First, gold. How many times have we seen this chart now? Black line = bad economic news reaction. Red line = cap and intentionally beat back price. Blue line = Hold price down until The London PM fix. Green line = Let it go

If you think I'm crazy, here are just a couple of other examples for you:

Whatever. Like it even matters. Just watch the chart below and the 200-day MA:

If you're wondering why silver is down so much today, it has everything to do with the May expiration. Why? Recall that we've followed the Comex silver OI down from 165,000+ three weeks ago, 160,000+ one week ago to under 147,000 on Monday. That's a lot of contracts closing, in particular the shorts who do not have silver to deliver. Those spec shorts are being out back on today in the July contract...and...down she goes. These shorts will continue to be added for the next few days or until price breaks out of the triangle below. Taking the other side of these spec shorts are The Commercials, which are gladly buying and fattening their positions. Note how silver once again today failed to drop and stay below .20. This is by design. ONLY IF price falls and then closes substantially BELOW would I get nervous and doubt my conclusions/forecast. Instead, I expect price to continue to hold support here and then ultimately break the triangle to the UPside. This resolution will begin to squeeze all these late-coming. momo-chasing shorts and a new rally will be underway.

Two other updates for you. With the lousy GDP number, The Long Bond is rallying again today. With the worsening Ukraine situation, palladium is rallying today, too. Both have once again opened significant gaps versus gold. On the charts below, you can see the clear correlation that gold has had with these two other items...a clear correlation that ended in both at the beginning of April. Since then, The Bond has continued to rally and palladium is up nearly 4%. Gold? Not so much. And so it is when every single market now shows the fingerprints of central planning.

Speaking of "Central Planning Fingerprints", I must close today by revisiting crude oil. Just yesterday, I printed a chart of crude at 2 and shouted that support had held. WRONG! Why has it reversed and what happens next?

Recall that the last time crude hit 5 before crashing to , The Woody Administration intervened by announcing a five million barrel release from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. This was done with the blatant intent of smashing price and "hurting Putin in his pocketbook". A funny thing happened along the way, though. Price fell to but could not drop further. Over a period of five days in mid-March, The Evildoers tried and tried and huffed and puffed but couldn't break . Price then recovered back to 5. And now here we are again with The Central Planners jamming price back down. My hunch is that they will fail again near . Let's just see if I'm right.

LOTS of other stuff going on today...so much so that I hardly know where to start. To save time, I'll just give you these:

OK. Expect a full podcast later today, post-Fedlines. Enjoy the show.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Apr 30, 2014 - 7:52pm

Mad5Hatter & SS121

My question (sorry, accusation) was instigated, I guess, from the fact that both of your postings usually are somewhat "intense" in nature and you guys usually post very closely together within the threads. Maybe not as often as I thought.

My post wasn't meant to stir controversy, I was just making an assumption (probably in error) and it raised my curiosity.

"Carry on then!"

And yes, I do remember that Mad5Hatter was once posting under the name SilverSurfer. I liked the icon/picture you used.

Apr 30, 2014 - 7:52pm

I wonder why that is ?

Friend sent me some interesting charts today. I wonder who is indebted to who?


Apr 30, 2014 - 5:20pm


Looks like the gold silver ratio hit 67.7 today and the last time that I could find it was this high was in 2010!!

Wow, the london price fixers must be roaring with laughter because of all the money they are making - remember they get to place their PM bets as they are fixing the prices for those metals - so they always have a good profitable day.

Talk about your case of massive insider trading!!!!!!!

Apr 30, 2014 - 4:31pm

What does it all mean

Video unavailable

To fight the unbeatable foe.To right the unrightable wrong.

You really should take a minute to watch that vid and listen to the awe inspiring words.Could be the gold bug march. Incredible singer

Turd. If you have a moment please watch this. Turdites should have a official battle cry,yes.

Apr 30, 2014 - 4:23pm


From J Sinclair:

India displaces Japan to become third-largest world economy in terms of PPP: World Bank
By ET Bureau | 30 Apr, 2014, 06.59AM IST

NEW DELHI: India has displaced Japan to become the world’s third biggest economy in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP), according to a World Bank report released on Tuesday.

The 2011 round of the bank’s International Comparison Program (ICP) ranked India after the US and China. The last survey in 2005 had placed the country on 10th place.


With a bullion friendly prez up for election next month, the suppression of imports since last year, and 3rd largest economy, hey hey, India could be the straw that breaks the suppressor's back. (of course it will, Mr Fix is back over 1000 tips)

Wat? OMG, Miles is running hard in 4th place. Can you imagine????

John Lennon - Imagine - Lyrics


“It accelerates this process by which U.S. hegemony over the world, which is predicated on the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency, is lost. All you have to point to are the measures that are quickening now, by which Russia and China accelerate bilateral agreements. This would also mean that they would be requesting payment from their European customers in euros rather than dollars.

So Russia is retaliating and it isn’t getting the press that these largely meaningless sanctions are receiving, but in my judgment this is far more important for investors. The loss of reserve currency status has tremendous repercussions, not the least of which is a reset in the price of gold and silver.

Also, Russia already has serious gold reserves but my sources tell me that the Russian gold reserves are understated, and I believe that. We already know that China’s gold reserves are very seriously understated. One of the implications of what’s occurring, particularly with the saber rattling the U.S. seems to be encouraging between China and Japan, which is also not a very good idea, is forging stronger economic ties economically and politically between Moscow and Beijing.

Eric King: “How much gold do you think Russia has?”

Kaye: “That’s a very good question. Let’s just say it is very likely multiples of what they’ve announced officially. Again, I think KWN readers can understand that Russia understates its reserves for the same reason readers understand that China intentionally understates its reserves.

=== What, Russia is suppose to have 1000 tons, and multiples of that is at least 3K tons, throw in China 4-20K tons, and India (peeps) with what 24K tons. That's allot of gold.

China is buying all it can, India about ready to unleash the gold dogs, and now Russia is "under reporting". GASP!! how could that possibly be. Who could have ever ever possibly thunk it? If these 3 decide to unleash the gold dogs, and put the yaun up for grabs by anyone, Fellon may need to huddle with the team, ... oh, guessing that went off yesterday. .... SOMETHINGs UP!!

Rumor has it Putin just mortgaged the Kremlin to City Banks, and he is converting the cash to gold, to then stiff western bankers, default on russian debt, for oil and gas buyer to pony up the yellow stuff, as Obummer salutes, pissing on himself.

Apr 30, 2014 - 4:11pm

Banging the Close

Nice little close banging in gold.

When do CFTC members get put in the stocks in town square. Got some rotten lettuce to throw.

Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Apr 30, 2014 - 3:26pm
Apr 30, 2014 - 3:25pm

My LCS report

I was in my local LCS 2 weeks ago. At the time, he had zero gold, none, nada, nothing. All he had was generic silver rounds and bars.

Apr 30, 2014 - 3:20pm

No sellers

I have the opposite experience. I buy at a large L.A. Meteo coin shop. They tell me no one is selling only buying at these prices. FYI

Apr 30, 2014 - 3:16pm


Thank you Mr. Horse!

I'm no lawyer, but after reading the relevant sections it looks to me that if the mine can't deliver the silver then it all goes into trust until such time as silver can be delivered, if it's obvious shut down is permanent then SLW gets all collateral including the mine itself.

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Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/11 12:30 ET Goon Evans speech
5/12 8:30 ET CPI
5/12 9:00 ET Goon Kashnkari speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Quarles speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Harker speech
5/12 5:00 ET Goon Mester speech
5/13 8:30 ET PPI
5/13 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
5/14 6:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State index
5/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

5/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/5 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
5/5 10:00 ET ISM Sevrice PMI
5/6 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/7 8:30 ET Productivity
5/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 4/27

4/28 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
4/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
4/29 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess
4/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
4/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
4/30 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
5/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 4/20

4/20 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
4/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
4/23 8:30 ET Weekly jobless claims
4/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
4/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

Key Economic Events Week of 4/6

4/8 2:00 ET March FOMC minutes
4/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
4/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 3/30

3/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
4/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
4/1 9:45 ET Markit manu PMI
4/1 10:00 ET ISM manu PMI
4/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
4/3 8:30 ET BLSBS
4/3 9:45 ET Market service PMI
4/3 10:00 ET ISM service PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 3/23

3/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
3/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
3/26 8:30 ET Weekly jobless claims
3/27 8:30 ET Personal Inc and Spending

Key Economic Events Week of 3/9

(as if these actually matter)
3/11 8:30 ET CPI
3/12 8:30 ET weekly jobless claims
3/12 8:30 ET PPI
3/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 3/2

3/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
3/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
3/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
3/4 8:15 ET ADP employment
3/4 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
3/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
3/5 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
3/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
3/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
3/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

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