Worn Out

Tue, Apr 22, 2014 - 11:13am

If I'm tired and frustrated, I can only imagine how you must feel.

There are certainly days when the accumulated burden of the last three years shows itself. I know how the metals have been manipulated and I know why, as well. This helps me to keep my spirits up but there are some days when I feel a bit overrun. Today is such a day. (Perhaps this is a buying signal / trend change? I recall seeing this speculated in the past.)

Today is a Terrible Tuesday. Why? For the same reasons Tuesdays are always Happy or Terrible. The Banks have been big buyers and coverers this past week on the price weakness that has continued since last Tuesday. When The Banks have been buyers, they almost always attempt to cover some of their tracks by selling on Tuesdays. The result is "Terrible Tuesday". Conversely, when the banks are on their heels and selling into rallies all week, they often like to buy some shorts back on Tuesday. We call these days "Happy Tuesday".

As has been the case, the key levels to watch are the lows of last week and gold's 100-day moving average. For the June gold, this is all near $1279. In silver, holding and bouncing from $19.20 remains important.

There continue to be plenty of bearish scenarios being bandied about on the internet and in the media. Though I fundamentally disagree with all of them, I thought I should give you some long-term charts so that you can see where these folks are coming from and then decide for yourself.

Gold is still over 0 off of its Double Bottom lows of last year. Note, too, that the weekly RSI is still above the long-term down trendline that it broke earlier this year. Regardless, there seem to be a lot of folks who are convinced that 50 is the next stop.

Silver, on the other hand, has broken back below the long-term RSI line and it clearly continues to face steep EE resistance to keep it below the red price trendline. If .20 is broken and fails, a retest of the June lows certainly looms as a possibility. Many bears say would be next but, with the cost of production estimated to be near , I'm not sure how that would be possible or sustainable. Oh well, fwiw...

And here's a one year chart of the HUI. Remember, I only got interested in these damned things when the HUI broke UP and through 210 back in January. If it fails now and falls back through 210 (which I don't think it will but wtfk?), then you've got to severely reduce or eliminate your exposure again. Watch closely in the days ahead. The 100-day MA near 218 will be your key.

And speaking of silver, our pal SRSrocco has an excellent new report on silver demand, particularly in China. Give this a good read and then further ponder the " silver" question: https://srsroccoreport.com/silver-continues-to-drain-from-the-shanghai-f...

More later today.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Apr 23, 2014 - 11:59am


those are well written comments. Thank you i never considered those point of views.

Averaging down if you have the fiat to convert is great, i am against the 'all in' at any price mantra. Us working stiffs could be strangled that way. witness several posters here at TFMR that have lamented selling their gold at these low prices to meet daily expenses because they went all in at much higher levels.

Best to you and yours. Stack on!

Apr 23, 2014 - 11:42am

Just remember

The pigs get meaner when the trough gets smaller!

We are moving to the end of a current system and the birth of a new system. This is a natural process. The people in the old system can't or won't see the new as their prestige and wealth is derived from it. It makes sense to defend it. Rage is understandable as is verbal aggression


Stack till it hurts

metalsbyamile, well said but I don't think there is anything wrong with averaging down in physical, or buyng when you have the fiat to convert

Apr 23, 2014 - 11:41am

Some have no comprehension of what is wrote

Comprehension does require being literate. For instance last week i said buy buy buy as in short term for pm stocks to swing trade. Or buy if opening an initial position to stack.

Last time i lived in Canada we had a saying. No good thing ever came out of Quebec.That was the 70's. I visited in the 80's, just briefly, the sentiment was the same.

Looks like nothing has changed.

It would be wrong to several posters here if i did not mention they should read a few Green Lantern and John Galt musings at PTC.

For the others that flamed away at me or cyclicals. It is an idea like every other metric used. Nothing and i mean nothing is 100% one hundred percent of the time.

Cyclicals are working for me long term.Charles Nenner is paid by billion dollar hedge funds ect.I pay him $1200.

Turd is working for me daily weekly and monthly.I pay him a measly $10.00 a month for superb analysis of daily events.

LeMetropole charges me $199 per year to get the skinny on a daily basis .Great info.

Doug Casey invoices my cc $249 for several subs and i make money with his suggestions/ picks.

Jim Sinclair is free and his advise is incalculable. This man had me stacking in 2000! He believes in cyclical calculations. Mr Gold or the flamers? Hmm? Who has made me money, let's see now... uh, yes, not one of the flamers here.

If I'm wrong, they are wrong. So what? I can not lose at this point. My core pog & pos is so low they will have to drop to the $600 and $8 range.

If i can save one average person from the pumping bullchip that says they always stack , continues to cheer price drops while buying more at ANY price,supposedly with endless funding, or is just plain stupid, so be it.

A lot of you sound like penny stock promoters. BUY BUY BUY average down it will be okay trust me we will win any price is good you liked it at $1800 why would you not LOVE it at $1300.

Give it a rest.

Apr 23, 2014 - 11:34am


Thanks for the response. You seem to live a contented and happy life with conviction.

I must profess i will now tread where few men dare to go.

By reading your response and several references to God and the bible here at TFMR my curiosity got the better of me. I searched gold and the bible.This scripture jumped out at me several times and with multiple hits.

Ezekiel 7:19 ESV /

|They cast their silver into the streets, and their gold is like an unclean thing. Their silver and gold are not able to deliver them in the day of the wrath of the Lord. They cannot satisfy their hunger or fill their stomachs with it. For it was the stumbling block of their iniquity.{

Holy crosses, i notice several of you quote the bible as the end all and be all. So what exactly is this telling us. Are you and the others accumulating to cast it in to the street? Shall i provide you my address?

Perhaps i misunderstand this statement. Please enlighten all who have read your professions here at TFMR. The others that have quoted scripture, feel free to chime in.

This should get interesting.

Safety Dan
Apr 23, 2014 - 12:39am

Metalsbyamile and others who

Metalsbyamile and others who have studied historical gold cycles. Below are a few predominate cycles often used in trending gold. This was posted almost 4 weeks ago, before April 1 intermediate bottom, and conflicts with Metalsbyamile's historical thoughts. See this link & post..

"Gold's Cycles

Several have posted the past historical gold cycles. Sometimes the near past and distant past can reflect changes. I would suggest looking at the 68 week cycle creating a bottom on or around 6/09/14.

The 2011 to 2014 4 year cycle does show a bottom mid year; around 6/27/14.

However, the 83 week cycle from 2011-2014 suggests a price escalation from last week of March first week April for a high mid year, then price falling into the late winter months.

Sometimes it helps me to focus on or around the dates for change of direction in pricing. Hope that helps."

Folk's I've followed and researched these trends, as provided by another knowledgeable trader/researcher. These cycles seem to help locate price turning points, and sometimes even the right direction. No one I've found is always right.. So I read, research, ask questions, use T/A, follow fundamentals, keep the cycles near, and still wrong. See this week. I'm beginning to believe war and negative GOFO rates are good and will cause falling gold prices. Now ackwards bass is everything.

Apr 22, 2014 - 11:29pm

My thought on the End of the Great Keynsian Experiment

Since we are transition between two totally different worlds -- I have some fiat for the immediate bills of life and encourage my sons to get an education, but also have in metals for the big reset. There maybe so much chaos during the resetting period, a person still may need fiat for a time as the government will probably try with all its might to discourage using metal directly as money. Stacking food and honing food growing skills or participating in community gardens might be a good start and learning about local food coops might be a good interim step, that does not entail too much front end risk.

Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Apr 22, 2014 - 8:10pm


You make me happy. In the real turd I am Undecided.

Apr 22, 2014 - 6:58pm

I hear ya Craig...

This shit has started to wear on me for awhile now. The worst part about it is that i've lost friends over this, not just silver/gold but the entire libertarian perspective, it's a damn shame when someone you've known your entire life won't talk to you because he can't stand to listen to the reality of things. Ron Paul was right, people cannot forget what we tell them, it sticks with them tremendously even if you've only brought it up once and the ideas fester inside these people's minds and then it becomes your fault for depressing them by pointing out something as unsustainable as this...


After watching the BLM take Bundy's cattle and come "this" close to killing Americans for no good reason i've finally come to depressing conclusion that we are clearly at war with our government, regardless of what people want to believe, and the largest part of that war is and has been psychological. We cannot allow ourselves to be beaten down by these bastards mentally.

This game will keep going and going and going and going until it doesn't. It might be decades, yes decades, before the reality of the situation becomes clear to everyone. I've just accepted this as a blessing as it means we're all given way more time to prepare and dig in.

Apr 22, 2014 - 6:14pm

New attitude

I just got back from two and a half weeks in Tikehau in French Polynesia. There was no newspaper, no phone, no TV and basically no internet. I went cold turkey on information sources that I absolutely thought I couldn’t live without. The day I got back I had a layover in Los Angeles and used that time to get back into informing myself. What I discovered is the news hadn’t changed one bit in three weeks. They still hadn’t found flight 370, Russia was still messing around the Ukraine, health care is still a mess, the stock market is still the golden child, the metals are still manipulated and on and on and on……….

I made the decision on the flight home that I simply was done reading about all of this shit. Tracking the daily missives of those who are in the know as well as those who think they are in the know simply depresses me (not directed at you Craig). Whether I know about it or don’t, the world marches on. I can’t change the world. I can’t do much about what happens to me. All I can control is how I feel about it. The world’s problems are big enough they can take care of themselves. I know I’ll check in periodically but my goal is to do it less and less often. Those couple of weeks were like heaven. I didn’t know and I came not to care.

Good luck all.

Apr 22, 2014 - 6:09pm

Totally Agree!

I did a few deals with that schmuck when I was in the business. The only time he pitched a real deal was to get the marks money into the firm and then put it into one of his pump and dumps schemes.

Not one mention of the thousands of people who lost money because of this rat bastard.

As to these guys always getting caught, unfortunately many of them are now sitting at JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs doing the exact same thing they did at Oakmont only on a much much larger scale. And now they are TBTF!

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Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/11 12:30 ET Goon Evans speech
5/12 8:30 ET CPI
5/12 9:00 ET Goon Kashnkari speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Quarles speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Harker speech
5/12 5:00 ET Goon Mester speech
5/13 8:30 ET PPI
5/13 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
5/14 6:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State index
5/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

5/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/5 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
5/5 10:00 ET ISM Sevrice PMI
5/6 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/7 8:30 ET Productivity
5/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 4/27

4/28 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
4/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
4/29 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess
4/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
4/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
4/30 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
5/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 4/20

4/20 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
4/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
4/23 8:30 ET Weekly jobless claims
4/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
4/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

Key Economic Events Week of 4/6

4/8 2:00 ET March FOMC minutes
4/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
4/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 3/30

3/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
4/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
4/1 9:45 ET Markit manu PMI
4/1 10:00 ET ISM manu PMI
4/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
4/3 8:30 ET BLSBS
4/3 9:45 ET Market service PMI
4/3 10:00 ET ISM service PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 3/23

3/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
3/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
3/26 8:30 ET Weekly jobless claims
3/27 8:30 ET Personal Inc and Spending

Key Economic Events Week of 3/9

(as if these actually matter)
3/11 8:30 ET CPI
3/12 8:30 ET weekly jobless claims
3/12 8:30 ET PPI
3/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 3/2

3/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
3/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
3/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
3/4 8:15 ET ADP employment
3/4 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
3/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
3/5 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
3/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
3/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
3/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

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