If I'm tired and frustrated, I can only imagine how you must feel.
There are certainly days when the accumulated burden of the last three years shows itself. I know how the metals have been manipulated and I know why, as well. This helps me to keep my spirits up but there are some days when I feel a bit overrun. Today is such a day. (Perhaps this is a buying signal / trend change? I recall seeing this speculated in the past.)
Today is a Terrible Tuesday. Why? For the same reasons Tuesdays are always Happy or Terrible. The Banks have been big buyers and coverers this past week on the price weakness that has continued since last Tuesday. When The Banks have been buyers, they almost always attempt to cover some of their tracks by selling on Tuesdays. The result is "Terrible Tuesday". Conversely, when the banks are on their heels and selling into rallies all week, they often like to buy some shorts back on Tuesday. We call these days "Happy Tuesday".
As has been the case, the key levels to watch are the lows of last week and gold's 100-day moving average. For the June gold, this is all near $1279. In silver, holding and bouncing from $19.20 remains important.
There continue to be plenty of bearish scenarios being bandied about on the internet and in the media. Though I fundamentally disagree with all of them, I thought I should give you some long-term charts so that you can see where these folks are coming from and then decide for yourself.
Gold is still over $100 off of its Double Bottom lows of last year. Note, too, that the weekly RSI is still above the long-term down trendline that it broke earlier this year. Regardless, there seem to be a lot of folks who are convinced that $1050 is the next stop.
Silver, on the other hand, has broken back below the long-term RSI line and it clearly continues to face steep EE resistance to keep it below the red price trendline. If $19.20 is broken and fails, a retest of the June lows certainly looms as a possibility. Many bears say $15 would be next but, with the cost of production estimated to be near $18, I'm not sure how that would be possible or sustainable. Oh well, fwiw...
And here's a one year chart of the HUI. Remember, I only got interested in these damned things when the HUI broke UP and through 210 back in January. If it fails now and falls back through 210 (which I don't think it will but wtfk?), then you've got to severely reduce or eliminate your exposure again. Watch closely in the days ahead. The 100-day MA near 218 will be your key.
And speaking of silver, our pal SRSrocco has an excellent new report on silver demand, particularly in China. Give this a good read and then further ponder the "$15 silver" question: http://srsroccoreport.com/silver-continues-to-drain-from-the-shanghai-futures-exchange/silver-continues-to-drain-from-the-shanghai-futures-exchange/
More later today.