Worn Out

Tue, Apr 22, 2014 - 11:13am

If I'm tired and frustrated, I can only imagine how you must feel.

There are certainly days when the accumulated burden of the last three years shows itself. I know how the metals have been manipulated and I know why, as well. This helps me to keep my spirits up but there are some days when I feel a bit overrun. Today is such a day. (Perhaps this is a buying signal / trend change? I recall seeing this speculated in the past.)

Today is a Terrible Tuesday. Why? For the same reasons Tuesdays are always Happy or Terrible. The Banks have been big buyers and coverers this past week on the price weakness that has continued since last Tuesday. When The Banks have been buyers, they almost always attempt to cover some of their tracks by selling on Tuesdays. The result is "Terrible Tuesday". Conversely, when the banks are on their heels and selling into rallies all week, they often like to buy some shorts back on Tuesday. We call these days "Happy Tuesday".

As has been the case, the key levels to watch are the lows of last week and gold's 100-day moving average. For the June gold, this is all near $1279. In silver, holding and bouncing from $19.20 remains important.

There continue to be plenty of bearish scenarios being bandied about on the internet and in the media. Though I fundamentally disagree with all of them, I thought I should give you some long-term charts so that you can see where these folks are coming from and then decide for yourself.

Gold is still over 0 off of its Double Bottom lows of last year. Note, too, that the weekly RSI is still above the long-term down trendline that it broke earlier this year. Regardless, there seem to be a lot of folks who are convinced that 50 is the next stop.

Silver, on the other hand, has broken back below the long-term RSI line and it clearly continues to face steep EE resistance to keep it below the red price trendline. If .20 is broken and fails, a retest of the June lows certainly looms as a possibility. Many bears say would be next but, with the cost of production estimated to be near , I'm not sure how that would be possible or sustainable. Oh well, fwiw...

And here's a one year chart of the HUI. Remember, I only got interested in these damned things when the HUI broke UP and through 210 back in January. If it fails now and falls back through 210 (which I don't think it will but wtfk?), then you've got to severely reduce or eliminate your exposure again. Watch closely in the days ahead. The 100-day MA near 218 will be your key.

And speaking of silver, our pal SRSrocco has an excellent new report on silver demand, particularly in China. Give this a good read and then further ponder the " silver" question: https://srsroccoreport.com/silver-continues-to-drain-from-the-shanghai-f...

More later today.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Apr 22, 2014 - 11:19am

First Maybe?


Apr 22, 2014 - 11:22am

You must be so proud.

You must be so proud.

Apr 22, 2014 - 11:25am


banks buy, banks sell at their desire. the banksters are in control. so tired of the crap. when will it end?

Apr 22, 2014 - 11:29am

no medal today

No medal today

Reviews metals price action

too slow to "enter"

Apr 22, 2014 - 11:30am

Turd / Read "If" By Rudyard Kipling

I read this daily


If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you
But make allowance for their doubting too,
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don't deal in lies,
Or being hated, don't give way to hating,
And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise:

If you can dream--and not make dreams your master,
If you can think--and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build 'em up with worn-out tools:

If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it all on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breath a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: "Hold on!"

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with kings--nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you;
If all men count with you, but none too much,
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And--which is more--you'll be a Man, my son!

--Rudyard Kipling

Apr 22, 2014 - 11:36am

Jim Willie and his info stream

suggests the RESET has started a few weeks ago. Volitility is going to happen, not much we can do about it other than take advantage of it. Sit back enjoy the sun, go for an ice cream sunday and rub your feet in the new spring grass.

Apr 22, 2014 - 11:37am


Somebody just dumped 6000 futures contracts to get gold below $1280

4 oz
Apr 22, 2014 - 11:40am


Oh how I wish my car hadn't needed to be in the shop earlier this month and had more dry powder!

They are just callin' to me------

Apr 22, 2014 - 11:40am

I'm a Buyer Here, and at $1,200, and at $1,150 . . .

TF: no worries my friend. Seriously. Relax.

I'm a trial attorney. I eat stress for breakfast, lunch, dinner and a late night snack. If there is no stress, there is no reward.

Put things in perspective. Focus.

I have been patiently waiting, hoping with all my might, for price to drop again to their lows, or even lower! I am going to be a buyer of size, for sure.

I'm awake, aware, tuned in, and watching intently.

Said in my best B'rer Rabbit impersonation:

"Oh please Mr. Banksters, don't take down the paper price of the precious metals, please!"

"Buy when there is blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own." Now, who said that . . . hmmm

It's going to be an epic summer, just saying.

Keep on keeping on TF, it will be just fine.

Apr 22, 2014 - 11:42am



That is what my wife says when she see's me looking down.

Been thru this Down Cycle so many times in 40 years and

it is NEVER easy. When it happens, always thing of all

the WOW stuff I have done and have accomplished. Helps.

So Don't Jump. Hang in there.


Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

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