Things Not Yet Arrived - But Due On My Radar Soon

Sun, Apr 6, 2014 - 9:09pm

There are may cross currents of events, and stories about events sweeping through the precious metals blogosphere at any moment. One of the problems which must always be dealt with is: which of these are significant and which are not. Which are stories based on truth, even though they may be incomplete, and which are stories based upon misinformation and must be ignored, or trade in in opposite manner. Misinformation there certainly is, though I usually regard this "false" news as merely the sales departments promotion campaigns for Wall Street. After all they must get someone to buy their latest duds, mustn't they. I'd rather it's not me!

Usually I focus upon price movement to judge affairs, and what seems to matter to the gold market. Price is a very objective measure. If a story comes out and price ignores this, it says something about that story. Likewise when price moves for no apparent reason, there begins an investigation to discover what is moving price in that direction and generating the trades which move it.

Here is an incomplete list of some of the big issues drifting about at the moment, though one any particular day they could be positive or negative to prevailing sentiment for owning gold. I find that just because an event is "good", say today, that does not mean the same event will be "good" this day next week. It's not sentiment, it's the change of sentiment that matters.

Just a few issues which go unanswered, and whose answers will have a big effect, when the answer emerges from the fog:

  • Does a dollar collapse mean (a) a simultaneous systemic collapse of the whole financial sector, or (b) merely a sequence of 5-10% declines of the dollar, which are just more steps, similar to many other declines already seen, which date back 100 years or more, and which the financial sector is quite used to seeing and can presumeably handle.
  • When the ECB (Belgium if you prefer!) buys TBonds and the Fed issues USD against EUR swaps to buy them with does this circle of counterfeiting (sorry QE-ing) build a virtuous tower of positivity results to end the worldwide depression, or does the whole house of cards collapse when the right shock shakes it to it's rotten core.
  • Education and awakening of the public has begun with the alternative media of the internet. This is perceived as a bad thing by the parties who run affairs for their own benefit. So will this process continue leading to a real electoral demand for change, or will the state sponsored attempts to censor and place clouds of misinformation prevent this process of education of the masses?
  • As the WWII conquered nations of Germany and Japan observe the US backing away from Saudi Arabia and Ukraine and their "defense" will these nations swing to place their cooperation to a different geopolitical bloc than the US/UK/NATO alliance for the coming decades. Which way will India face in this process?
  • Will the global war for resources remain in the regions of resources or will these conflicts spill over outwards towards the larger protagonists fomenting these wars?
  • The US appears to be following a policy of raising armed opposition groups within the Middle East and Asian countries to split their leadership and weaken. In particular militant sharia type sects appear to receive support to challenge leaderships already in place. Will civil wars and internal conflict continue to weaken these countries, including the former Soviet Republics and China, or will their governments put the upstart movements down and retain control and power?
  • Always during a depressionary stagflation, there is a desire to utilize or release new energy to "Buy the regime's way out of a problem". The 1970's oil in the North Sea is an example of this. The mad push to get fracking going everywhere possible to cover up energy cost inflation is a modern day clutch at a similar type of straw. The question is will a low cost energy source emerge in adequate amount to save the 100 years old system which is wobbling so much at present?
  • The counter point to the above energy resource war is that energy producing nations wish to increases their prices to get paid for their exported resource, and to cancel out the effect of depreciating currencies paid to them by the nation-buyers of their exported energy. In the 1970s the oil crises and middle east wars resulted from this. The current stagflation has taken a similar direction with Russia, Syria, Cyprus, and Middle East "gas wars" kicking off or being engineered.
  • What form will the various engineered crises take, when regimes want to implement new policies which without a crisis might be rejected by the populations?
  • The financial wars which currently are running in parallel with the resource wars - will an equal and opposite counter reaction result from the countries currently under financial attack by the currently weaponized financial systems of the super powers? If so, what will collateral damage (laugh at that state-speak phrase) and it's effects look like?
  • As inflation takes hold, what will the attendant capital controls, price controls and wage controls be like? Legislation for all of these is either in the pipeline or already in place.
  • When states move to purely digital currencies, what will the public section which chooses non compliance do about that, and how successful will evasion be in heavily surveilled society, and draconian will enforcement be?
  • This is intended as a discussion document rather than a global geopolitical analysis. However these are all changes that I believe are coming. I'm just posing questions, not providing the answers. The answers will result from various contests between large nations and forces which are in progress or which might have not yet occurred, but are beginning. Time will gradually expose the answers to our sight. And the dislocation caused by the answers will change sentiment and drive asset prices to new levels.

    Argentus Maximus

    The author posts daily commentary on the gold and silver markets in the TFMR forum: The Setup For The Big Trade. More information about the author & his work can be found here: RhythmNPrice.

    About the Author


    El Gordo
    Apr 6, 2014 - 9:17pm

    Is there any way

    to be free of ever creeping government involvement in our lives? Doubtful. As to geopolitical changes, I expect they will occur sooner rather than later, or that at least the groundwork will be laid for such shifts. Frankly, I can't see the formerly good old USA having anything worth going to war for anyway as the populous is dumbded down to illiteracy anyway. Sorry to be such a downer, but that's the way I see it.

    Apr 6, 2014 - 9:21pm

    Apr 6, 2014 - 9:39pm

    It's interesting -in

    It's interesting -in connection with these power play events - how closely a significant amount of the policies of the west currently follows the thrust of Zbigniew Brzezinski's book "The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy And Its Geostrategic Imperatives".

    I may have seen something on Scribd or similar ... not 100% sure.

    He correctly identified all the flashpoints years ago. It's heavy going, but seemed to me to be well researched when I read it.

    Apr 6, 2014 - 9:48pm

    dollar collapse

    the past (Germany, Zimbabwe, Venezuela, etc.) as prelude suggests the dollar collapse will take place gradually over a number of months. Barring, really black swans, of course. Depends upon how the Fed reacts and if we use our military in a hot war.

    Mr. Fix
    Apr 6, 2014 - 9:50pm


    I listened to this Jim Willie video a little while ago, it was just released today. Nothing terribly new, other than the timeframe: Jim thinks the dollar is losing its “world reserve currency” status very quickly, and believes it is about to be devalued in steps, but eventually being worth about 80% less than it is now.

     More importantly, my assertion that Pres. Obama has appointed himself dictator for life was well outlined on “the common sense show” by Dave Hodges in today's article. Quite frankly, I'm glad to see some of the alternative press catching up with assertions that I've been making for the past five years.

     Knowing full well that our president would set out to destroy the United States, in every way imaginable was a turning point in my own life, I literally spent all of my available cash on physical gold and silver, and although I have continued to increase that stack, I started when the price was still considerably lower than it is now.

     I am somewhat more concerned what America is going to look like a few more years down the road than I am about my financial situation, my daughter who I often referred to as “Little Fix”, is likely to have a much harder life than I had, because she is inheriting a country with far less economic freedom than I had growing up.

     Hopefully “my stash” will be of use down the road, when the dollar devaluation finally takes place.

     Jim Willie who I have grown to have quite a bit of respect for in his analysis, has finally concluded that the collapse is imminent, and that the end of 2014 will look far different than its beginning.

     Although I've prepared enough to weather a storm comparable to a “Mad Max” scenario, I'm beginning to think it won't be quite so bad. I am far more resourceful than most people I know, and even in a scenario where money is virtually worthless, I have much to barter with.

     Under careful analysis of the way current events are unfolding, I think Obama is beginning to lose his grasp on power, and he may not get the dictatorship for life that he originally intended, but he is still a profoundly dangerous person.

     Except for his alphabet agencies that he has armed to the teeth, he has little to no support anywhere else.

     As hard as he has tried to start World War III, to give cover to the bankers who put him in office, there appears to be many behind the scenes who still have enough power to thwart at least that part of his agenda.

     In a perfect world, all the corruption and fraud at the highest levels will be exposed to a degree that all respect for the federal government will be lost, and simple noncompliance will be all that is needed for its collapse.

     This would require a massive education of the populace, and many are still quite uninterested.

     I would imagine that if prices went up 400%, that would quickly change.

     I'm not sure how any of this could affect an investment strategy, but regardless of the outcome, I still feel that physical gold and silver in my own possession is by far the safest store of wealth.

     Even though most of your investment strategies sail clear over my head, I always find your articles interesting and insightful.

     Thank you for the time you invested in this one.

    Apr 6, 2014 - 10:13pm

    What Stories Do I Follow?

    "There are many cross currents of events, and stories about events sweeping through the precious metals blogosphere at any moment. One of the problems which must always be dealt with is: which of these are significant and which are not. "


    ​So true AM!! That's been my biggest challenge since becoming a stacker in 2001. It seems that 99% of the PM-related articles I've read over the past 15 years or so are total BS. Hot topics, like the "COMEX is about to be broken" or "a big European bank is about to collapse", seem to come on the scene and then just disappear, to be replaced by the next hot-topic-of-the-day. I'm sure that, given how fragile the financial system is, we'll have another "2008" and it may even be worse than in 2008. But, I'm also just as sure that the triggering event, and the domino events that follow, will not have been discussed in the blogosphere and will take everyone by surprise..

    Apr 6, 2014 - 10:21pm
    Les Baux
    Apr 6, 2014 - 10:56pm

    Question about metals other than the usual gold/silver

    I personally don't buy into the collapse, with some global 'reset' centered around gold (or silver). It's interesting to discuss, but ultimately I just don't see sufficient evidence for any of it (including the FOFOA stuff referenced by Motley Fool). investments in metals are for wealth preservation, that's all. They keep pace with inflation, which is good enough for me.

    Still, I understand the allure of a lottery ticket, and I've started thinking: why not Rhodium?

    1:100 ratio in terms of abundance relative to Gold. It's so damned rare, and yet it's currently still cheaper even in terms of bullion you can buy and hold in your hands! I figure by buying it I get as good an inflation hedge as any (it's still phyzz), and as a bonus I get a metal that periodically goes to $10,000/oz. Where is the downside?

    Apr 6, 2014 - 10:57pm

    What we DO (or should) know about the future.

     “Educating" the masses about simple economics will prove to be a daunting problem since we are talking about idiots for the most part. Add a massive wall of PC lies and misinformation to the fact that the majority of educated people know almost nothing about market forces and basic economics because they weren't required to take the courses and you have a perfect explanation of why we are where we are.

    There will be one reason why we might never go to a purely digital currency and it is, at present, insurmountable for practical purposes. It’s called EMP or electromagnetic pulse.It can be easily produced by a nuke airburst or with slightly more difficulty by an electronic/electromagnetic device. This can wipe electronic records clean and disable computers, radio and TV and power grids, all at the same time. Basically, we’re talking a flash in the distant sky and instant stone broke and in the stone age redux.

    The term “dollar collapse” has always amused me since the dollar has already lost all but slightly less than two percent of its value in the last one hundred years. If it “collapses” any further, we’ll need an electron microscope to see it. Remember, 10% X 0 = nada.

    Apr 6, 2014 - 11:09pm

    @ Patrancus

     Zbigniew Brzezinski and the Pope, both on the list of 300. Who would have thunk it?

    Apr 6, 2014 - 11:27pm

    I would like to be optimistic...but...

    People don't seem to learn much from history. We will probably have to go down the long dark road of totalitarianism before people fully wake up. I'm trying my best to wake people up, but as you can see that is a difficult task when emotional buttons are actively cultivated by The Powers That Be. Mob rule and group-think will become even uglier and then when it runs its course maybe we'll be able to have a full second Enlightenment. 

    El Gordo
    Apr 6, 2014 - 11:44pm

    Dollar or other collapse

    Confidence is what the dollar is based on today - nothing more. If a loss of confidence occurs, the dollar will collapse. Under current conditions, if nothing changes, the dollar will continue to erode in value over time as it has done for the past 100 years. However, should a wide spread loss of confidence occur, it's impact and the resulting devastation would most likely be almost instantaneous - a matter of days or weeks, not months or years. Confidence, just like construction of a skyscraper, goes up slowly, but the fall is rapid - same with markets. By the time we poor schulbs on the street get the news, we will already be down by half just trying to get out. I'm just trying to be at least somewhat prepared.

    Dagney Taggart
    Apr 7, 2014 - 12:19am

    Genuine or not,

    this diagram has been demonstrated in history many times...

    I have officially ended trying to "wake" anybody up. We are approaching the time where it will be dangerous to. The number of desperate collectivist mobs that have emerged make it so.

    Apr 7, 2014 - 12:56am

    no worries

    fiat currencies not failing. system failing.

    effort to dethrone USD and implement digital 'reserve' currency is underway.

    staged global econ/USD/gold market 'crisis event' is imminent.

    digi-reserve currency implementation, and system, will quickly fail.(no more fake charts/markets)

    Silver and Gold will become the benchmark by which remaining fiats will be valued

    if not hurting, quit crying.

    Only Silver and Gold are Money.

    Keep Stackin' it up.

    Apr 7, 2014 - 1:20am

    80% devaluation.......

    Will result in what % inflation over the "stepped" thought approach mr.fix.......according to the Willie formula? Of course this inflation would mainly impact "imported" goods.......of which domestically produced goods are in many cases at least partially comprised. Let's think of oil....which we produce woefully short of demand in this country at current rate. At ~20% first devaluation, where would the price of oil/gasoline go? What impact would that devaluation have on GDP? What impact would we see on spending in the service sector? How does this play out through the economy.......yes a series of dominoes falling ....dependence on the oppressive/tyrannical government the provider of life through your next"the weapon" I have stated numerous times. It may not take the form of food to the eye, but it is none the less food handout. The modern soup line. A massive credit cycle unwinding.....only begun. A deflationary winter.......delayed, fed, and expanded for decades.....unleashed. It is difficult to stand against that which offers life......while those with foresight are infinitely small in comparison. A centuries paradigm shift is playing out.......the majority of which are totally oblivious. Epic. The spiral continues.

    Apr 7, 2014 - 1:35am

    I believe

    that corruption is running to it's end , i am a man so i will put this out from my point of view. how many times can i tell you honey it is just you i love you and only you. to me that is the new world , sweetepie you are my only one , when the truth is i do not give a rats ass as long as i am getting what i want. and as long as we buy this crap they will get away with it. the reasone i come to this site is for facts , for people that will cahnel theses facks i believe we are comming to a place where the world will change , and when it does it will change fast , stacking alone will not be good enough

    wow not only can i not spell , but i am pretty sure my message did not come thru , i have been married for forty years to my best friend to my best lover , money is money life is life what i am saying is wake up it is not only our money that is going away it is our way of life .

    if i could do this better i would, drinking does not help

    once more forward into the fog


    Apr 7, 2014 - 1:54am

    What Leaders?

    Who ya gonna call? Ghostbusters?

    There is no government for the people in the USA.

    Hagel - lightweight, unable to lead a military. fill in the blanks ---------!

    Kerry, a flintstones brain, full of AIPAC- Bankster rhymes and instructions.

    Congress and Senate awol...So, who ya gonna call?

    Japan and Germany-they are out to lunch. They follow far....conquered and subjugated, history rewritten for Japan and Gemany. Many clueless, but the truth is spreading.

    Hey did u know that the US and England had cut off Japan Oil supply in Feb of 1941. Japan has no oil of its own....So, Pearl Harbour was for survival..don't feel bad, most Japanese don't know either! Same for Americans. U R duped.

    Europe under Anglo American dominance since Marshal Plan after WWII.

    That is why Belgum, yes Belgian, buys US Debt, buys the majority lately.

    Anglo-American policy is to Divide and Rule.

    They do it everywhere, at home in racism, gender war, homosexuality, and on the world stage by invading and causing civil wars, destabilizing many countries.

    After they are weakened then they move in to seize control. In Libya they were setting up a Central Bank even before the fighting had cooled off!

    At home, people become confused and just give up - Political Correctness keeps them quiet.

    Apr 7, 2014 - 2:56am
    4 oz
    Apr 7, 2014 - 5:27am


    Don't know.

    And I'm sure it's a real reach...but I'm thinking that it'd be way, Way, WAY cool to be reading--- say at the end of the week--- that Sprott had just made a Major Ji-normous Silver buy at these absurd low price levels....followed by speculation early next week that that amount of Silver was un-deliverable....

    Apr 7, 2014 - 6:43am

    coming to this site for...

    what? Oh, any?

    ... the intelligence level degenerating , with wonkey types getting an audience for senseless babbling ...

    Apr 7, 2014 - 7:23am

    a bit harsh, Mac?

    One has to pan through a lot of material to find a few nuggets. This site is better than most and draws some really smart people back each day to read through all the comments.

    Apr 7, 2014 - 8:44am

    Sentiment not facts drives price

    I think the trick is to anticipate or be simultaneous with the emergence of facts. By the time facts are visible the price has already revalued to discount them.

    Shades of Donald Rumsfeld's and his "known knowns", "known unknowns" and "unknown unknowns"!

    It's probably true to say that many people bought gold and silver because money was being printed, and suffered declining PM prices after their entry into the long position. The money was made by other earlier people who went long PMs because they suspected that in the future decisions would have to be made that money must be printed.

    Apr 7, 2014 - 8:52am

    This made me LOL

    Russia has a Consumer Confidence Index? And it makes headlines? Who knew??

    ​"Good morning, comrade. How are the consumers of Murmansk feeling this month? More confident? Da?"

    Apr 7, 2014 - 8:53am

    Ukraine: pro-Russia activists proclaim independent republic

    On Sunday, a Russian soldier shot dead a Ukrainian naval officer in eastern Crimea, one of the few fatalities reported since Russia took control of the Black Sea peninsula in March. The shooting was announced by Ukraine's defence ministry. Russian media said a group of Ukrainian soldiers in the village of Novofedorivka had been drinking and were on their way home when they passed Russian soldiers guarding an entry to the military base where they previously worked, and an argument broke out between the two groups. "We confirm the death of a Ukrainian officer in the village of Novofedorivka in Crimea," the ministry's press service told Interfax-Ukraine. According to the news agency, the Russian serviceman shot dead the Ukrainian officer near the hostel where the latter lived. Dmytro Tymchuk, director of the Centre for Military and Political Studies, said on Facebook on Monday that Russian junior sergeant Ye S Zaitsevv shot a Ukrainian serviceman – whom he named as Major K of military unit No 1100 – twice in the head at point-blank range. He said Captain A Yermolenko, who was sharing a hostel room with the murdered Ukrainian, was beaten and abducted by Russian troops. Tymchuk said Russian servicemen had also taken the body of the Ukrainian major. A criminal investigation has been opened.

    Apr 7, 2014 - 8:56am

    04 Secret Document: EU Plans To Forcibly Open All Safe Deposit

    Secret Document: EU Plans To Forcibly Open All Safe Deposit Boxes

    Secret paper: Brussels plans this summer to allow EU-wide open all the boxes by force. . Reason: In addition to cash tax evasion investigators also search for precious metals – EU Finance Commissioner. “He who has nothing to hide, you need fear nothing.” Green: “An important step toward tax fairness and social justice.”

    Holders of safe deposit boxes in banks threatens Affliction. According to a secret document Brussels wants to still be in this year Open all lockers EU-wide force. Preparations are already in full swing. By the summer of the action should be carried out with the name “lockbox2014″. Background: The EU Commission suspected there billions in black money and other valuables that were probably acquired illegally. In addition to cash it have apart on precious metals like gold and silver to the authorities.

    Apr 7, 2014 - 8:57am

    Things are moving quickly again


    — zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 7, 2014
    Apr 7, 2014 - 9:11am

    On my radar

    the fever has arrived so I've decided to devote some time over the next 6 months to prospect some glacial till. the birds word says another spent his summer digging in the till and placed nearly 50 oz of flake in his poke. My attitude seems to be right at this point in my life, my back is managed, I could take it or leave it, just some r & r, like the game of golf, if you take it to seriously forget about having any fun, its time to have some fun.

    Apr 7, 2014 - 9:20am

    And my week begins with...

    Hello all,

    This is how my Monday morning reading began - yikes..

    ​I've followed Rambus for awhile now, but this article has me concerned. I know there are a lot of smarter people on this board, so what are the opinions on this one?



    Colonel Angus
    Apr 7, 2014 - 9:41am

    for mac

    Yes, there's a lot mentioned here that is in the midst of happening or has not completely happened yet. And it might be some fear-mongering on someone's part to mention them all at one time. But maybe someone else is the one not thinking by not connecting the many, many dots. 

    I study stats. And Turd hates it when we say that correlation does not imply causation. (Sorry, Turd, but it is true.) HOWEVER, there is a point when you are compiling data that you can say something reaches statistical significance. Now I have no idea whether the news here is normally distributed or rather it has some sort of skewness to it, though I'd wager it is the latter if pressed. I cannot find a standard deviation of news, though it might be interesting to start scoring the news by some metric and using that as a random variable....hmmm. Don't digress, don't digress. Anyway, there is a lot of stuff happening in the world around us. If someone thinks about it for a short while, they may see some forces at work that imply insurance might be a decent idea. As a family we decided to buy the farm. We didn't use up our stack of gold and silver, but instead we dumped some fiat. And we're out working our butts off all the time in order to make sure there will be crops for us. As I've chronicled before, we win no matter what. Tomatoes are so much better off the vine than buying them at Aldi. And I have a new and much better job out here in flyover country. Neighbors are great, and I'm learning from the collected wisdom of at least the last fifty years.

    So, without babbling as you did in your previous post, can you make a coherent point? (I'm not saying I did...just want to toss out some food for thought for those that actually think.)

    Apr 7, 2014 - 9:42am

    On my mind? (Oxford thinks its a potential cause of extinction)

    The old question of moral terpitude, do we have it, and is technology more advanced than our moral compass? I say yes.

    Seems like Oxford University is also concerned, what are the environmental affects of nanotechnology? Nano particles of aluminum cause memory issues, are suspected of causing Altzheimer's, and higher levels of aluminum cause a reduction in crop yield. The patents for airborne environmental engineering include aluminum nanoparticles, benzene (highly carcinogenic), and others.

    Next we have significant energy weapons, many that leave no trace but can cause cancer, or even kill. We keep talking about how "power comes at the end of the barrel of a gun" not realizing the gun will be something you can't hear or see, but can have dire consequences to the individual. They're hard to trace, and virtually unregulated.

    I know, I know, go back to DOTS.

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