Again, This Isn't Complicated

109
Mon, Mar 24, 2014 - 5:18pm

Frustrating? Yes. Complicated? Nope.

Well, it's good to be back though the timing of my spring break turned out to be challenging for it seemingly could not have come at a worse time. More on that below but, for now, rest assured that Turd is back on the watchtower and ready to fight.

Let's start again today with where we left off Friday. In that podcast thread, I implored you to go back and review this post from 3/1/14. Even if you did so then, you should do so again today because it's extremely important that we get on the same page:

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/5530/negative-gofo-and-rising-gold-p...

To summarize, here are a few of the salient paragraphs:

"The days of Central Bank gold leasing are almost over. Whether the CBs are "out" of gold or simply unwilling to lease what they have left for fear of not getting it back (from China), the CBs are not playing the gold leasing game like they have for the past 45 years. Again, for the past 24 years, GOFO rates were negative just 7 out of 5,000 days. Since July 8, 2013, GOFO rates have been negative for 98 out of 164 days or roughly 60% of the time.

Put another way, positive GOFO means "business as usual". Central Banks are willing to lease gold to the Bullion Banks. The BBs take this gold and dump it onto the futures market, using this scheme to contain, manage and suppress price. This worked perfectly until 2003 when demand and fundamentals overwhelmed this scheme for the next nine years and price rallied from $300 to $1900. Leased gold was continually dumped from October 2012 until late June 2013 and the resulting decline took gold back from $1800 to less than $1200.

But, now, negative GOFO is the new norm. Why? Because the CBs no longer have the gold to lease to the BBs. Without this readily available physical supply, the BBs are unable to aggressively manage price on a day-to-day basis and they are forced to stand down. Instead of daily 7:00 am London time price raids, we only get one per week. Instead of "waterfall" declines on the Comex, we get gradual and steady price increases."

And I concluded that post with this:

"This leaves us with this conclusion for traders and stackers everywhere:

Buy when GOFO is negative. Be cautious, sell or hold off on new purchases, when GOFO is positive.

Could it be as simple as that? Yes! It may very well be, at least for now."

Allow me to put this another way for you...

When GOFO is negative, physical supply is scarce. Because of this, The Cartel Banks have no gold to dump into the market to raid and jam price lower. Their only option is to be on the offer. All they can do is stand ready to absorb as much of the speculative buying pressure as they can each day, hoping to contain price and manage rallies.

Once GOFO flips back to the positive, this indicates that The Banks again have the ability to freely lease gold en masse. They then can utilize this gold to aggressively raid and sell in their attempts to paint the charts and force the spec money back out. Into this spec selling, the banks can buy back and cover many of the shorts employed earlier to contain price.

The two charts below illustrate this point. First, check this daily chart of the past two months of action. Just as the pattern has been, once Comex February deliveries began in earnest, GOFO turned negative again on 2/4/14. From there, gold went on a tear. It was UP 13 of 15 days with most days seeing an unusual lack of even London Monkey attacks. GOFO "peaked" negative on 2/21/14 and began to drift back toward positive as the February delivery month concluded, turning slightly positive again on 3/6/14. However, GOFO didn't immediately jump higher. Instead, it languished near flat for over a week as tensions in Ukraine/Crimea heated up and more speculators rushed into the paper market. As of 3/14/14, GOFO was still just slightly positive at +0.0075%.

Conveniently, we had a CoT survey taken on 2/4/14 as well. That evening, The Cartel Banks (gold commercials) were NET SHORT a total of 65,782 contracts. Left with no gold to raid price, all they could do was absorb spec bids through February and into March and by the CoT of 3/18/14, The Cartel Bank NET SHORT position had grown to 145,934 contracts. It was "mission accomplished" though because they had managed to contain the price rise to just $100. Can you even imagine how price would risen without The Banks covering each bid??

But, as you now know, GOFO did turn positive last week and each day since has seen rates move even deeper into positive territory. Again, this means that leasable gold is now readily available again for The Banks to borrow and dump into the market. GOFO moved from +0.016% to +0.038% last Monday. Can there be any surprise, in retrospect, that after price jumped higher last Sunday evening it was immediately raided back down and then lower later that day? As GOFO spiked toward a Friday high of +0.102%, are you surprised that price is now another lower?

Anyway, the good news in all of this is that we are clearly onto them. The game is ending, as witnessed by the now-persistent negative GOFO and, with April Comex deliveries set to commence in a week, rates will undoubtedly slip negative again soon. In the meantime, we must expect even lower prices as a desperate Cartel attempts to paint the charts as negatively as possible while they can, hoping to avoid another spec rush in April.

In gold, this means at least a drop to the lower end of the 2014 channel, currently near 05. However, I doubt that price will stop there. The Cartel goal almost has to be to break the 2014 channel. Why would they want to leave that channel and bull trend intact for when GOFO slips negative again next month? No, they'll almost certainly keep raiding until that channel is broken. Also, if they can break price down and out of the channel, they'll also try to knock price back below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, currently near 02. In the end, absent any geo-political dramatics over the next 5-10 days, I think price is headed to 80 or so and the 100-day MA. Yes, that stinks but it is what it is.

And silver, now that it's convincingly back below .60 and all of its moving averages, is likely headed to at least .50. I'd love to see a third "higher low" by having it stop there but we can't rule out , either. Yes, that sucks. But, again, recognize it for what it is and prepare to take advantage of this current dip.

I have a lot more to say but I'd better get this posted. I'll try to cover this and other topics in more detail in today's podcast so please be sure to check back later.

Again, hang in there. Recognize what is going on and use this knowledge to your advantage.

TF

About the Author

Founder
tfmetalsreport [at] gmail [dot] com ()

  109 Comments

  Refresh
lrod3166
Mar 24, 2014 - 2:55pm

TURD QUESTION

Any chance some big money Chinese players getting liquid with gold??

tmosley
Mar 24, 2014 - 2:45pm

So is there anywhere other

So is there anywhere other than TFMR that the predictive power of the new GOFO regime has been noticed?

I'm about to step back into the casino for the first time in five years. Want to make sure I'm not part of the herd.

AIJ
Mar 24, 2014 - 2:37pm

Bye Bye PIG

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

metalsbyamile
Mar 24, 2014 - 2:32pm

Could it be related to this?

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-24/ukraine-leader-new-leaked-reco...

​Ah but no worries. The "Ukrainian Thingee" is old news and all fixed. Just look at the plummeting price of gold...now down 7% in 6 days.

metalsbyamileGamble
Mar 24, 2014 - 2:20pm

Took my eyes off the ball.

Wow is it ever tanking. And gold is holding above those crucial levels.

AIJ
Mar 24, 2014 - 2:19pm

USDX / PIG

Took a big hit. Whats up?/

Gamble
Mar 24, 2014 - 2:17pm

Pig tanking

Hope fully pm's can reverse now that the pig is tanking!

rl999
Mar 24, 2014 - 2:13pm

jp morgue physical PD

but, but, but, JP morgue just sold their physical commodities metals trading...right

Standard Bank Set to List First South African Palladium ETF (Reuters)

Standard Bank is launching South Africa’s first palladium-backed exchange traded fund, where each share will be backed by 1/100 of an ounce of physical palladium. The metal will be held with custodian JPMorgan in London.

We are bullish on palladium, and many analysts agree. Palladium prices have risen 7% this year in dollar terms, driven by concerns that the Russia-Ukraine conflict may affect supply from top producer Russia; and concerns over supply contraction due to strikes among mineworkers in South Africa, the second-largest miner of the metal. Meanwhile, demand for the white precious metal is supported by strong car sales in China.

CPE
Mar 24, 2014 - 2:13pm

Watching the Reserve Scrip of the World...

...just fall rapidly through support and down 0.3% in a few minutes without it affecting metals is simply another unicorn spotting in an artificial world.

When the rest of the sheep awake there will be many tears.

CPE
Mar 24, 2014 - 1:58pm

Please take the time to read this, perfect for blue pill takers!

Please read this!!! The Truth is Out: Money is just an IOU, and the Banks are Rolling in it

The link above is THE most important concept regarding ANYTHING economic that one could ever understand about our current monetary system. Understanding this key, puts everything else in perspective. The only thing I would add to the author’s explanation is that since the principal of loans is created out of nothing by the banks then the ONLY thing that matters to the bank is the stream of interest. The interest must flow and compound to enrich the banking class. Nothing else matters to them, all else economic revolves around this central fact. This is why deflation (falling prices) is demonized, because it destroys debt and therefore the interest stops and no longer compounds to the banker’s benefit.

Gentlemen! I too have been a close observer of the doings of the Bank of the United States. I have had men watching you for a long time, and am convinced that you have used the funds of the bank to speculate in the breadstuffs of the country. When you won, you divided the profits amongst you, and when you lost, you charged it to the bank. You tell me that if I take the deposits from the bank and annul its charter I shall ruin ten thousand families. That may be true, gentlemen, but that is your sin! Should I let you go on, you will ruin fifty thousand families, and that would be my sin! You are a den of vipers and thieves. I have determined to rout you out, and by the Eternal, (bringing his fist down on the table) I will rout you out!

- Andrew Jackson – President of the United States and a man of a quality that is apparently much more rare today…

The issue which has swept down the centuries and which will have to be fought sooner or later is the people versus the banks.

- John Emerich Edward Dalberg-Acton

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Key Economic Events Week of 9/21

9/21 8:00 ET Goon Kaplan
9/21 10:00 ET Goon Evans
9/21 Noon ET Goon Brainard
9/21 6:00 pm ET Goon Williams & Goon Bostic
9/22 10:30 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/22 Noon ET Goon Barkin
9/22 3:00 pm ET Goon Bostic again
9/23 9:00 ET Goon Mester
9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
9/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/23 11:00 ET Goon Evans again
9/23 Noon ET Goon Rosengren
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Quarles
9/24 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/24 Noon ET Goon Bullard
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Barkin again & Goon Evans #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #4
9/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/25 11:00 ET Goon Evans #4
9/25 3:00 pm ET Goon Williams again

Key Economic Events Week of 9/14

9/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
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Key Economic Events Week of 9/7

9/9 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
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9/10 8:30 ET PPI
9/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
9/11 8:30 ET CPI
9/11 9:45 ET Core CPI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/31

9/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/2 8:15 ET ADP employment
9/2 10:00 ET Goon Williams
9/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/3 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
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Key Economic Events Week of 8/24

8/24 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Idx
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8/19 2:00 pm ET July FOMC minutes
8/20 8:30 ET Jobless claims
8/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
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Key Economic Events Week of 8/3

8/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI July
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8/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
8/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
8/5 8:15 ET ADP employment July
8/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
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