Again, This Isn't Complicated

Mon, Mar 24, 2014 - 5:18pm

Frustrating? Yes. Complicated? Nope.

Well, it's good to be back though the timing of my spring break turned out to be challenging for it seemingly could not have come at a worse time. More on that below but, for now, rest assured that Turd is back on the watchtower and ready to fight.

Let's start again today with where we left off Friday. In that podcast thread, I implored you to go back and review this post from 3/1/14. Even if you did so then, you should do so again today because it's extremely important that we get on the same page:

To summarize, here are a few of the salient paragraphs:

"The days of Central Bank gold leasing are almost over. Whether the CBs are "out" of gold or simply unwilling to lease what they have left for fear of not getting it back (from China), the CBs are not playing the gold leasing game like they have for the past 45 years. Again, for the past 24 years, GOFO rates were negative just 7 out of 5,000 days. Since July 8, 2013, GOFO rates have been negative for 98 out of 164 days or roughly 60% of the time.

Put another way, positive GOFO means "business as usual". Central Banks are willing to lease gold to the Bullion Banks. The BBs take this gold and dump it onto the futures market, using this scheme to contain, manage and suppress price. This worked perfectly until 2003 when demand and fundamentals overwhelmed this scheme for the next nine years and price rallied from $300 to $1900. Leased gold was continually dumped from October 2012 until late June 2013 and the resulting decline took gold back from $1800 to less than $1200.

But, now, negative GOFO is the new norm. Why? Because the CBs no longer have the gold to lease to the BBs. Without this readily available physical supply, the BBs are unable to aggressively manage price on a day-to-day basis and they are forced to stand down. Instead of daily 7:00 am London time price raids, we only get one per week. Instead of "waterfall" declines on the Comex, we get gradual and steady price increases."

And I concluded that post with this:

"This leaves us with this conclusion for traders and stackers everywhere:

Buy when GOFO is negative. Be cautious, sell or hold off on new purchases, when GOFO is positive.

Could it be as simple as that? Yes! It may very well be, at least for now."

Allow me to put this another way for you...

When GOFO is negative, physical supply is scarce. Because of this, The Cartel Banks have no gold to dump into the market to raid and jam price lower. Their only option is to be on the offer. All they can do is stand ready to absorb as much of the speculative buying pressure as they can each day, hoping to contain price and manage rallies.

Once GOFO flips back to the positive, this indicates that The Banks again have the ability to freely lease gold en masse. They then can utilize this gold to aggressively raid and sell in their attempts to paint the charts and force the spec money back out. Into this spec selling, the banks can buy back and cover many of the shorts employed earlier to contain price.

The two charts below illustrate this point. First, check this daily chart of the past two months of action. Just as the pattern has been, once Comex February deliveries began in earnest, GOFO turned negative again on 2/4/14. From there, gold went on a tear. It was UP 13 of 15 days with most days seeing an unusual lack of even London Monkey attacks. GOFO "peaked" negative on 2/21/14 and began to drift back toward positive as the February delivery month concluded, turning slightly positive again on 3/6/14. However, GOFO didn't immediately jump higher. Instead, it languished near flat for over a week as tensions in Ukraine/Crimea heated up and more speculators rushed into the paper market. As of 3/14/14, GOFO was still just slightly positive at +0.0075%.

Conveniently, we had a CoT survey taken on 2/4/14 as well. That evening, The Cartel Banks (gold commercials) were NET SHORT a total of 65,782 contracts. Left with no gold to raid price, all they could do was absorb spec bids through February and into March and by the CoT of 3/18/14, The Cartel Bank NET SHORT position had grown to 145,934 contracts. It was "mission accomplished" though because they had managed to contain the price rise to just $100. Can you even imagine how price would risen without The Banks covering each bid??

But, as you now know, GOFO did turn positive last week and each day since has seen rates move even deeper into positive territory. Again, this means that leasable gold is now readily available again for The Banks to borrow and dump into the market. GOFO moved from +0.016% to +0.038% last Monday. Can there be any surprise, in retrospect, that after price jumped higher last Sunday evening it was immediately raided back down and then lower later that day? As GOFO spiked toward a Friday high of +0.102%, are you surprised that price is now another lower?

Anyway, the good news in all of this is that we are clearly onto them. The game is ending, as witnessed by the now-persistent negative GOFO and, with April Comex deliveries set to commence in a week, rates will undoubtedly slip negative again soon. In the meantime, we must expect even lower prices as a desperate Cartel attempts to paint the charts as negatively as possible while they can, hoping to avoid another spec rush in April.

In gold, this means at least a drop to the lower end of the 2014 channel, currently near 05. However, I doubt that price will stop there. The Cartel goal almost has to be to break the 2014 channel. Why would they want to leave that channel and bull trend intact for when GOFO slips negative again next month? No, they'll almost certainly keep raiding until that channel is broken. Also, if they can break price down and out of the channel, they'll also try to knock price back below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, currently near 02. In the end, absent any geo-political dramatics over the next 5-10 days, I think price is headed to 80 or so and the 100-day MA. Yes, that stinks but it is what it is.

And silver, now that it's convincingly back below .60 and all of its moving averages, is likely headed to at least .50. I'd love to see a third "higher low" by having it stop there but we can't rule out , either. Yes, that sucks. But, again, recognize it for what it is and prepare to take advantage of this current dip.

I have a lot more to say but I'd better get this posted. I'll try to cover this and other topics in more detail in today's podcast so please be sure to check back later.

Again, hang in there. Recognize what is going on and use this knowledge to your advantage.


About the Author

tfmetalsreport [at] gmail [dot] com ()


Mar 26, 2014 - 4:40am

Deutsche Bank-er Explains Why He Committed Suicide

The dismal list of financial executive deaths has recently increased to 11 in the last few months. Speculation has surrounded many of these deaths (and suicides) as to the reasoning; none more than the first - William Broeksmit, an executive who worked in Deutsche Bank's risk function and advised senior leadership who hanged himself in his South Kensington home in late January. However, as the WSJ reports, we now know why this poor man felt compelled to take his own life: he was "anxious about various authorities investigating areas of the bank where he worked" (and yes, we are well aware of the grammatical and temporal impossibilities suggested by this article's title).

While a Deutsche Bank spokeswoman said Tuesday that "Bill was not under suspicion of wrongdoing in any matter," according to statements read at a coroner's inquest in London, the former senior executive at Deutsche Bank, who committed suicide in late January, was concerned about investigations into the German bank.

William Broeksmit, an executive who worked in the bank's risk function and advised the firm's senior leadership, was "anxious about various authorities investigating areas of the bank where he worked," according to written evidence from his psychologist, given Tuesday at an inquest at London's Royal Courts of Justice.


Mar 26, 2014 - 4:35am

Just a reminder that this one

Just a reminder that this one GSR is still working:

If it follows its regular so far oscillations now its time for GSR to move down to about 61. Usually that would mean some increase in PM prices within next month. Which in turn means some escalation in Ukraine events may be due, until May when if Putin signs China gas deal placing Russia in hands of Chinese creditors and out of reach of Western ones. That should stabilize Ruble. There is also a bubble in EUR/Ruble coming from charting, which also should crash in early May 2014:

Most likely this indicates - until May - further loss of Ruble due to sanctions/potential sanctions due to Russian actions. I doubt that this would indicate increase in EUR general strength as , quite opposite, ECB is hard pressed to start to do something about high value of EUR and deflation, like reduce ECB rates still lower.

El Gordo
Mar 25, 2014 - 11:57pm

Mr. Fix (on pg. 3)

Was the Pres trying to stir up fear about the Russians and the cold war, or was he issuing a threat of his own to the citizens of NY regarding upcoming elections?

boomer sooner
Mar 25, 2014 - 11:13pm

From above, thanks

From above, thanks DayStar

"The move by international payment systems Visa and MasterCard to block their use in Russia has unnerved some Russian businesses. Meanwhile, Moscow says its own national payment system may become fully operative within months. Last week MasterCard and Visa stopped servicing some Russian banks"

Might dent revs, but all time stock highs coming in Visa and Mastercard stock soon, bettergitusome!

Mar 25, 2014 - 10:00pm

Harvey's Up! (TFMR)

Quick link to the full deal:

  • Mark O'Byrne: Gold rallied from the lowest price in more than four weeks on safe haven demand after the G7 nations threatened more sanctions against Russia after the annexation of Crimea. Meeting for the first time since last week’s annexation of Crimea by Russia, G7 leaders said they won’t attend a G8 meeting that had been set for Sochi, on Russia’s Black Sea coast, and will instead hold their own summit in June in Brussels. The G7 said in a statement that they remain ready to “intensify actions”, including coordinated sectoral sanctions.
  • Harvey: We are now entering the options expiry week on the Comex and you all know the drill as the bankers whack the metals in order to win the premiums on the paper contracts that they have underwritten. They will whack continually until the end of the month. We have 3 commissioners of the CFTC gone and there is absolutely nobody there watching. To tell you the truth, even if the former commissioners were on the job, they would do nothing. I am witnessing again an increase in the negativity at the GOFO rate settings. This means that London good delivery bars are becoming scarcer. GLD and SLV: Today, the gold inventory at the GLD fell by 2.70 tonnes and stands at 818.77 tonnes. The silver inventory at SLV remained constant at 10,164.74 tonnes. Thus in the last two trading days, the GLD advanced it's physical inventory by 8.69 tonnes at the same time that gold fell by $19.00. And no doubt China was still loading the boat by moving around 6 tonnes per day over to Shanghai. The Bank of England's gold supply is finite and shortly they will run out.
  • GoldCore on the Central Bank of Iraq: Abdel Basset Turki, "The bank bought 36 tonnes of gold to boost reserves and this move is to strengthen the financial capacity of the country and increase the elements of security and insurance reserves of the Central Bank of Iraq." He added that "the central bank seeks through the purchase of large quantities of gold to stabilize the Iraqi dinar against foreign currencies.” Iraq quadrupled its gold holdings to 31.07 tonnes over the course of three months between August and October 2012. It is Iraq's first major move to bolster its gold reserves in months. The central bank of Iraq’s doubling of its gold reserves this month is important as there are many oil rich nations in the world with sizeable foreign exchange reserves, primarily in dollars, and only a small allocation to gold by these central banks alone could lead to higher gold prices.
  • Jim Rickards: "Central banks still have the ability to manipulate gold prices through gold leasing to commercial banks, which then use the leased gold to sell unallocated gold to customers using leverage. But the demand for physical gold by China and others is making leasing and paper gold transactions more difficult because there is less physical to support the trading and greater risk of default by a market participant who suddenly finds itself unable to obtain physical gold to satisfy some paper contract. All manipulation breaks down eventually because market participants begin to pile on the other side of the trade to test the will and resources of the manipulators. When the current manipulation breaks down, probably in the next year or two, gold will surge higher based on fundamental supply and demand. In that environment prices of $3,000 per ounce would not be surprising, although gold may eventually go to $9,000 per ounce or more if needed to restore lost confidence in the international monetary system."
  • Bill Holter: Some of you may remember a picture taken of Mr. Putin holding a very large gold bar about 10 years ago...was this just a photo op? Everyone knows that China has been buying gold hand over fist, Russia has also been a steady buyer. Coincidence? I could go on and on with these many "coincidences", I won't, my point is that they have mutually been preparing for the demise of the U.S. dollar. They have allowed (helped) us to divest all that we once had. We jettisoned our manufacturing base and China gladly stepped up to produce. This as you know was not an overnight process and took lots of time. "Time" has been on their side while it has been running out on us. I really believe that Russia and China have a full and mutual understanding that they really don't have to fire a single shot versus the U.S.. All they have to do is wait. Wait for us to "save the world" some more with further QE. Wait for us to reach the "debt point" where it is simply too much. "Wait", this is all that they need to do. Over the weekend, Tass reported that Managing Director/Chief Economist of Russia's Sperbank said that the Chinese Yuan may become a 3rd reserve currency "in the future"...I would say yes, "given time" ...or not much. I believe that this is not so much "pro" Yuan as it is a gentle nudge against the dollar. [B]DS: [/B]Coincidence indeed! In 1990 Russia was flat on its keister economically, and we gave away the store to China and let Russia build pipelines to supply Europe and get them over a barrel economically and we let the idiotic Euro experiment go on unabated while the European elites purposely drained the wealth from southern Europe and left them broke and hopeless. It is no coincidence that Russia is in ascendency. We have traitors leading our government intent upon our demise.
  • Bill Holter: The Chinese are now unsettled as something is wrong since real estate "always goes up", right? Well yes, "it did". It did in China just as it once did in the U.S. ...until it didn't which is where we are now. China also has the same "2006" problems that we Americans had, only bigger, MUCH bigger! We overbuilt homes, condos, retail space etc. betting on the extrapolation of steady growth and never again a recession. The Chinese in this instance have far outdone us as they have built ghost cities with no occupants future supply is already in place. This is now and will in the future be a big problem for their banking system...and at a time when their shadow banking system struggles with overleverage, under collateral and multiple pledging of said collateral. How will this all play out? I don't know and do not profess to understand their system well enough to speculate, I can however make a guess from a macro standpoint. I have speculated in the past that China has overbuilt and overstocked with the knowledge that the dollar and thus the global financial system will be shaken up. "Shaken up" as in mass bankruptcies and a global "reset" that will resemble hyperinflation as currencies devalue. I believe the Chinese would rather enter this period with "stuff" built and stockpiled because it will not go away when the music stops.
  • Fion Li: China is headed for a “mini crisis” in its local-government debt market as economic reforms lead to the first defaults, according to a former adviser to the People’s Bank of China. “It will be a partial, controllable and mini crisis,” Li Daokui told reporters on the sideline of the Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference in Hong Kong today. “There’s tremendous room for the central government to fix the problems in local government debt. Defaults must be allowed to restructure the debt, which will definitely happen as part of the reform measures in the second half of this year.” Li is a former member of the PBOC’s monetary policy committee and is director of Center for China in the World Economy at Tsinghua University.
  • Tyler Durden: Curious what the real, and not pre-spun for public consumption, sentiment on the ground is in a China (where the housing bubble has already popped and the severe contraction in credit is forcing the ultra wealthy to luxury real estate in places like Hong Kong) from the perspective of the common man? Photos from China show hundreds of people rushing today to withdraw money from branches of two small Chinese banks after rumors spread about solvency at one of them, are sufficiently informative about just how jittery ordinary Chinese have become in recent days, and reflect the growing anxiety among investors as regulators signal greater tolerance for credit defaults.
  • Zero Hedge: It seems the words of Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warning that “the world stands on the brink of conflict, the consequences of which are not foreseen... Not everyone in Europe is aware of this situation," are a little more real than some (US equity buyers) might suspect. AsThe Week's Crispin Black reports, at least 7,000 Polish workers in Europe have received call-up papers as army reservists in the last few weeks. Polish authorities dismiss it as "routine" but the men note this has never happened before.
  • RT: The move by international payment systems Visa and MasterCard to block their use in Russia has unnerved some Russian businesses. Meanwhile, Moscow says its own national payment system may become fully operative within months. Last week MasterCard and Visa stopped servicing some Russian banks, which shows the Russian market remains the monopoly of international operators. Although the payment systems resumed operations with Russia’s SMP Bank on Sunday, it is estimated clients withdrew about $111 million from their accounts in just two days. After years of rhetoric over the need to launch a domestic payment system in Russia, it may become a reality soon.
  • Zero Hedge: Last week we reported that while the West was busy alienating Russia in every diplomatic way possible, without of course exposing its crushing overreliance on Russian energy exports to keep European industries alive, Russia was just as busy cementing its ties with China, in this case courtesy of Europe's most important company, Gazprom, which is preparing to announce the completion of a "holy grail" natural gas supply deal to Beijing. We also noted the following: "And as if pushing Russia into the warm embrace of the world's most populous nation was not enough, there is also the second most populated country in the world, India." Today we learn just how prescient this particular comment also was, when Reuters reported that Rosneft, the world's top listed oil producer by output, may join forces with Indian state-run Oil and Natural Gas Corp to supply oil to India over the long term, the Russian state-controlled company said on Tuesday.
  • Brandon Smith: Take These Steps Today To Survive An International Crisis Part 3 of 10:

All this and more on...

The Harvey Report!


Mar 25, 2014 - 10:00pm

Bollocks - Registration

"The legal meaning of registration is to hand over 'Title'."

I don't know where you are getting that definition of the word registration. Are you making it up? The word registration is about recording, not ownership. The online version of black's law dictionary is as follows: Recording; inserting in an official register; the act of making a list, catalogue, schedule, or register, particularly of an official character, or of making entries therein. Law Dictionary: What is REGISTRATION? definition of REGISTRATION (Black's Law Dictionary)

Key Economic Events Week of 9/21

9/21 8:00 ET Goon Kaplan
9/21 10:00 ET Goon Evans
9/21 Noon ET Goon Brainard
9/21 6:00 pm ET Goon Williams & Goon Bostic
9/22 10:30 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/22 Noon ET Goon Barkin
9/22 3:00 pm ET Goon Bostic again
9/23 9:00 ET Goon Mester
9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
9/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/23 11:00 ET Goon Evans again
9/23 Noon ET Goon Rosengren
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Quarles
9/24 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/24 Noon ET Goon Bullard
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Barkin again & Goon Evans #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #4
9/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/25 11:00 ET Goon Evans #4
9/25 3:00 pm ET Goon Williams again

Mar 25, 2014 - 8:27pm

If you don't hold it you don't own it

Iraq buys $1.56bn of gold in biggest purchase in 3 years....... My guess is that Iraq is trusting and letting the NY Fed hold it for them in a very safe tight secure little corner of their Alice in Wonderland Safe. Seems I remember reading someone in Mex. kept asking whether Mex. had taken delivery of their recent new holdings of shiny only to find out that Mex. was also trusting and left it stored at the NY Fed. In other words they hold PAPER! Both of them is my best guess. Utterly amazing, just amazing this continues...until it doesn't.

Mar 25, 2014 - 8:20pm

Whitecastle123 - yes, and worse

When our parents signed our birth certificate (and their parents theirs etc) they weren't explained the legal, but not lawful, meaning of the word "registration". For a reason.

The legal meaning of registration is to hand over 'Title'.

Title means Ownership.

Those are the definitions in Black's Law Dictionary. Definitions there are different to those defined in standard, common-law dictionaries.

TPTB are doing what they do under the justification that we granted them the power to do it. But they conveniently ignore that they never explained the true meaning of their forced interpretation of the words they use onto us.

By ignoring that, they can feel safe.

But no, they can't. Hence the massive increase in surveillance, phone tapping, internet-use storage. etc etc that has escalated in recent years. Deceit has consequence.


Which leads to the need for absolute control. Precisely what we're seeing.

Mar 25, 2014 - 8:12pm


No I've not seen Yellowbeard, but I shall hunt for it now you've mentioned those illustrious chaps Chapman and Cleese are in it. Thank you for enlightening me .

Mar 25, 2014 - 7:51pm

@bollocks/Nana re: pirates and the dollar

Have you seen the movie Yellowbeard? If not, you should. Hilarious pirate movie. (I believe Graham Chapman and John Cleese are both in it, along with Cheech and Chong).

Nana, the dollar is just a debt instrument. The Federal Reserve Act pretty much nullified the Coinage Act (not officially) by letting the FED print the money instead of Congress being in charge of coining money.

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Key Economic Events Week of 9/21

9/21 8:00 ET Goon Kaplan
9/21 10:00 ET Goon Evans
9/21 Noon ET Goon Brainard
9/21 6:00 pm ET Goon Williams & Goon Bostic
9/22 10:30 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/22 Noon ET Goon Barkin
9/22 3:00 pm ET Goon Bostic again
9/23 9:00 ET Goon Mester
9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
9/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/23 11:00 ET Goon Evans again
9/23 Noon ET Goon Rosengren
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Quarles
9/24 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/24 Noon ET Goon Bullard
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Barkin again & Goon Evans #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #4
9/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/25 11:00 ET Goon Evans #4
9/25 3:00 pm ET Goon Williams again

Key Economic Events Week of 9/14

9/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
9/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
9/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
9/16 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
9/16 2:30 ET Powell Presser
9/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/18 8:30 ET Current Acct Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/7

9/9 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
9/10 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/10 8:30 ET PPI
9/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
9/11 8:30 ET CPI
9/11 9:45 ET Core CPI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/31

9/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/2 8:15 ET ADP employment
9/2 10:00 ET Goon Williams
9/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/3 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
9/3 12:30 ET Goon Evans
9/4 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/24

8/24 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Idx
8/25 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/27 9:10 ET Chief Goon Powell Jackson Hole
8/28 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Consumer Spend
8/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/17

8/17 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Idx
8/17 Noon ET Goon Bostic
8/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts
8/19 2:00 pm ET July FOMC minutes
8/20 8:30 ET Jobless claims
8/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/20 10:00 ET LEIII
8/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs July

Key Economic Events Week of 8/10

8/10 10:00 ET Job openings
8/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
8/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Idx
8/13 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/13 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 8/3

8/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
8/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
8/5 8:15 ET ADP employment July
8/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
8/6 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/7 8:30 ET BLSBS for July
8/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 7/27

7/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
7/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
7/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
7/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
7/30 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess
7/31 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
7/31 8:30 ET Core inflation
7/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/20

7/21 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
7/21 2:00 ET Senate vote on Judy Shelton
7/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 8:30 ET Jobless claims
7/23 10:00 ET Leading Economic Indicators
7/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for July

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