Sudden or incremental

123
Mon, Mar 24, 2014 - 10:32am

Given the overnight action in metals, perhaps discussing the big picture my be more interesting today.

I bought a house some years back that had an old curved roof barn. The architecture was amazing to behold to a wannabe carpenter like me, with curved roof beams, large oak support beams for the floor. It was probably built in the 1920s. It was dug into the side of a hill with the south side of the foundation exposed so you could walk into the lower level, the north side dug in so you could drive your tractor into the large sliding doors to store your hay. But there was a problem. That hill was saturated with water flowing underground out of hundreds of uphill acres north of the barn. The builders did not install a drainage tile. At some point, the water pressure from the north cracked the 8" thick concrete foundation wall horizontally along its 100 foot length about three feet above the lower level floor. The prior owner had re-supported the floor with vertical beams, but water seeped out continually reminding me of the problem. A contractor gave me a bid of 40K to fix it. We ended up selling the place. We have owned other homes in the American mid-west with cracking foundations and water issues in the basements. It seems to be a hazard of the region. Sump pumps are wonderful for managing the water, but they don't fix the foundation.

Fortunately, I have never owned a home too close to a river, ocean or sinkhole. But when such buildings have their foundations undermined, the collapses are sudden, spectacular and perilous. You can see it coming in many cases, if you pay attention, but there is nothing to be done but evacuate. Perhaps its the fault of the builders? Perhaps a lack of foresight? Perhaps it’s just a hazard of building anything in certain terrain where the view is beautiful, where water is abundant, where crops grow, where making a living is easier than where ground is hard, dry and stable. Certain precautions can be taken with wet ground--giving the pressurized water a route of escape. But too often it seems that the builders wanted to save money and create a quick easy structure and not worry about what would happen 40 years down the road.

In the past week, I have noticed a few posts on the boards about economic collapse, economic decline and how fast it might happen. I thought many more might be wondering the same things, and indeed the burning question in my mind these days has to do with the collapse of our nation's, indeed, the world's, financial system. Clearly, it has been unwisely constructed upon shifting, unstable fiat currencies. The bankers put band-aids on immediate issues, but have set up the economy for trouble later (perhaps sooner). Meanwhile, the architects of these currencies profit greatly and have a means of control that no person should have over an entire economy. And when the erosion forces of time, hidden underground water, or the violent forces of floods, waves or shifting ground inevitably exert their will, these fiat architects have no answers. Collapse is inevitable. But but is our foundation simply crumbling due to pressure & stress, or is the entire hillside being undermined. Will this “collapse” be sudden or incremental.

I am arguing, to anyone who will listen, that the collapse will be incremental, somewhat speedy, and have to avoid several hazards that could bring sudden disaster along the route. Verily I say unto thee, the beginning of the decline may be at hand with the ending of the petrodollar system.

Jim Sinclair: Russia Can Collapse US Economy, Gold Update, Silver is Gold on Steroids & More

I urge you to watch Jim Sinclar's recent interview if you have not already. He says that "Russia has the dollar by the” uh … short hairs uh balls? ... uh ... “has the dollar ... right in their hand.” It would behoove us to recall that the US played a part in the collapse of the Soviet Union not that long ago. I can't imagine Putin (or the Russian citizens) has any sympathy for the US. Russia will do what is good for Russia, and that means breaking the petrodollar system. All Russia has to do, says Sinclair, is accept other currencies for their energy products. And Putin is headed to china to likely sign such an arrangement, one that they have been negotiating.

A few years ago, my daughter and I climbed up to the top of a cliff that overlooked my home town. The view was fabulous. but the route back down was hazardous, with slippery places along the trail where, if one fell, you could tumble off and pretend you were Wesley in The Princess Bride yelling "As you wish..." until you were dashed on the rocks below. Our current situation is like that trail. Unstable, downward sloping, with the risk of disaster upon a misstep.

In a best case scenario, the world reserve currency is under attack. The US will see the inflation of commodities as the rest of the world no longer needs to buy dollars to convert their fiat into energy. The petrodollar's days are numbered. The value of dollars will decline. Cost push inflation will create more expensive imports. Increasing oil prices will increase food transportation costs. My rural students squealed about the price of gas when it hit 4.25. They couldn't afford the gas to drive to work and school.

When I say "incremental," I mean quick, definite increments. Not a long slow decline, but steeper, fairly fast, and fraught with the cliffs of banking freezes, war, grid shutdowns, food scarcity due to transportation shutdowns, rioting & martial law. I can't see rioting in the US being widespread. the first few riots will be met with a very heavy hand and the images of police quelling the action promptly will be splashed all over every media outlet. I bet DHS and the police are itching to try out their new gear!

The US is treading a narrow steep narrow trail, with Russia's goad at our backs. But Russia and China don't want the US and the West to completely collapse, which would not be in their best interest. They want and need a stable world economy. They want the west to lose the wealth and power to them. They want to see the west's standard of living decline while theirs rises.

But these sociopathic, power-lusting, greedy, central bankers have created an untenable monetary system that is failing the citizens of the world. Their plan, the IMF Code of Reforms that will create the SDRs--the new international world reserve currency, their plan may stabilize things for a while, but the foundation is still in need of great repairs. Indeed, the waves are undermining it as I type. I am NOT convinced that greedy IMF-led bankers will man-up and do what is needed to create real stability. As I understand it, the SDR will be 25% backed by gold. Will that be sufficient to stabilize the 50% backing of fiat? Or is this like Nebuchadnezzar's statue with feet made partly of iron and partly of clay.

I have noticed that in spite of their high intelligence and shrewdness, sociopaths do not show extended foresight.

Well that's my theory. A quick steady decline (6 months to a year after the petrodollar is broken) with many risks that could bring on a fast collapse. I am hoping that this thread might test this theory with a sensible rationale and evidence. I am also wondering if Turdville readers actually have some kind of consensus.

By the way, My wife's sister is married to a City of Phoenix policeman--25 year veteran of the force. He and his comrades have been trained to deal with rioting recently. He had ridiculed his wife for a couple of years about her conspiracy theories and prepping, but a year ago he told her to "keep prepping." For her birthday last week, he bought her a pink assault rifle and encouraged her to use it if needed.

By the other way, I think my efforts to build cheap solar panels have been successful. The beta tests have been positive. I'll share more in a later post. The quick report is that my concerns were overblown and it was much easier to solder the cells together than I expected. However, paying .25-1.50 per watt for solar capacity may be the better alternative.

Buy gold my friends, it may become scarce before we know it.

About the Author

  123 Comments

agNau
Mar 24, 2014 - 2:23pm

There is a "golden cross"...

To negate........mining equities as well.... They are burning their last precious powder...while playing up the continuing deflationary collapse. At all costs.....the real money must never be seen as the savior it is. China's bubble burst is about to take center stage...as cause to further contraction across the world....perhaps a FF attack soon after to add urgency to next major wave of monetization..... We have never been more correct. Despite the misinformation of those like Dan Nadler.....obviously a paid shill.

Bollocks
Mar 24, 2014 - 2:36pm

is it true? - looks like it

Time to grab guns and kill damn Russians: Tymoshenko tape leak
Mar 24, 2014 - 2:40pm

Swiss Miss Sociopath

So the formerly jailed Ukrainian who looks like she belongs on a carton of cocoa with the fancy blond hair braid is suggesting that 8 million Russians get nuked?

Hmm...so maybe she was in jail for good reason then? I have to wonder.

What is up with these female sociopaths lately? Victoria Nuland too. These women creep me out.

ancientmoneyBollocks
Mar 24, 2014 - 2:43pm

@Bollocks re: WTF?

I wonder how they are able to use nukes to only kill Russians? Maybe they have anti-nuke suits for the Ukrainians?

Anyway, it sure seems like Putin has his own NSA out there intercepting phone calls and "leaking" them. Must piss off the neo-cons in the west to no end, unless, again, it is all part of the theater brought to us by the Rothschilds and their ilk.

Mar 24, 2014 - 2:45pm

My collapse scenario

Per the question in the article: I don't know what to think anymore. I used to think that the NWO/banking elite/Powers That Be were going to implode things just enough to do their currency reset and put in Obama as World President but it seems like things are unraveling for them. Obama is not the shiny leader on the hill they probably thought he was going to be.

It's now turning into a fight between the Western NWO and the East (Russia/China). I think Putin is deathly smart and the Chinese are not to be trifled with. The West is filled with arrogant idiots who are soft and comfy from being in power for so long. They don't know how to deal with real opposition.

Sooo...in 20 years we'll be lucky if we're not forced to speak Russian or Mandarin. Right now, I'm placing my bets that the Western NWO is going down, and China is going to own us.

PS Great article, BTW

ancientmoney
Mar 24, 2014 - 2:51pm

@Motley re: TTIP . . .

MF, do you know what the FOFOA followers think of TTIP, if it is signed into law by the EU?

It appears from GEAB's latest that it would essentially kill off the euro, and make the U.S. and most of Europe a dollar-trade zone.

Since FOFOA says the eurozone will be the entity that reprices gold to $50,000 (by buying any gold offered at that price) to kill the dollar, maybe the TTIP is designed to pre-emp such happenings.

metalsbyamile
Mar 24, 2014 - 3:14pm

Santa says

Chair Yellen To Get A Shock Of A Lifetime In The Next Few Months

Posted March 24th, 2014 at 11:49 AM (CST) by Jim Sinclair & filed under General Editorial.

My Dear Friends,

Chair Yellen has placed herself between the rock of recession and the hard place of playing the hawk. A global recession cannot produce an isolated USA, but rather underscore the heart of the recent US economic figures as a reflection of an insular American economy following the world back into recession, not entirely extremely cold weather related. You might note that China has not had as much of a weather problem yet and is experiencing degrees of contraction in the spectacular rate of growth previously present.

The idea that stimulation, even if only in form but not reality, can be withdrawn without draconian economic results is simply false. Chair Yellen is truly dedicated to full employment and is going to go into shock over the next few short months at the divergence between her economic modeling, the behavioral economic projections and the degree of economic contraction in the US. She will revert to her long standing dovish viewpoint of the mandate of the Federal Reserve and move this hyper stimulation (4 trillion) into a higher gear than before.

Both the stock market and the gold market will reflect this in substantively higher prices. One should never forget that the wheels of the equity markets and gold is liquidity, which represents debt presently and nothing more.

I am presently 13 hours ahead of you in Hong Kong looking out of my window in contemplation of mainland China where nothing has changed. China may look like a free enterprise exercise, but it is far from it. This is a Maoist country that will handle a contraction of its economic activity in a much different way than the hoards of Ivy League analysts populating Wall Street, the City and the Bahnhofstrasse believe. There will be a unified pulling together of the economic function to prevent the dire circumstances the uninformed love to paint China with and have been for the better part of a generation now.

The only asset to survive and appreciate in the period of the great leveling now in progress in the West is Gold. That is understood at a level of POLICY here in the East. Gold is not being bought here in the physical market as an investment decision but rather as a policy decision. It is clearly understood that gold is for saving and not for speculation as the eventual failure of the paper gold market will prove.

As we move out of the Great Leveling 2016 into the Great Reset of 2020 gold will have preserved the buying power of those courageous enough to hold and when possible add to their positions. Companies holding gold free of the tentacles of the West will prosper accordingly.

The developments in Crimea are a well timed stratagem to prevent the adoption of the TITT Treaty that no one wants which has the ability to turn Euroland into a dollar dependent trading area. The Baroness and Mr. O’Sullivan have more to do with ongoing events in the Crimea than the organized and false demonstrations are blamed for.

The US dollar knows this and can be seen to have lost its snap back mojo from below the .80 level of the USDX to the mid .80s. It is even struggling today as the stratagem to bring down the Euro has been trumped by the ongoing move of Putin.

Stay the course in gold and you will benefit mightily.

Sincerely,
Jim

I Run Bartertown
Mar 24, 2014 - 3:22pm

Why?

Why am I always drawn to insane women?

I see one, I like her, and BAM ... she's boiling a bunny, trying to kill 8 million Russians, or some other crazy thing.

And I love this part:

"Putin can point to precisely this conversation as proof of how Ukraine's "government" feel toward the ethnic minorities in the east, and why "they deserve to be protected." Which has been precisely Putin's ploy all along."

Hard to say Putin's getting much of a fair shake here. The people whose mass murder is being discussed get scare quotes around the idea of protecting them, and Putin gets blamed for the crazy bitch next door. That's been his ploy?

Bollocks
Mar 24, 2014 - 3:47pm
ancientmoneyBollocks
Mar 24, 2014 - 3:53pm

@Bollocks re: Dr. J's bunny barn . . .

I think you just recreated the country boys' Playboy Mansion.

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