Sudden or incremental

123
Mon, Mar 24, 2014 - 10:32am

Given the overnight action in metals, perhaps discussing the big picture my be more interesting today.

I bought a house some years back that had an old curved roof barn. The architecture was amazing to behold to a wannabe carpenter like me, with curved roof beams, large oak support beams for the floor. It was probably built in the 1920s. It was dug into the side of a hill with the south side of the foundation exposed so you could walk into the lower level, the north side dug in so you could drive your tractor into the large sliding doors to store your hay. But there was a problem. That hill was saturated with water flowing underground out of hundreds of uphill acres north of the barn. The builders did not install a drainage tile. At some point, the water pressure from the north cracked the 8" thick concrete foundation wall horizontally along its 100 foot length about three feet above the lower level floor. The prior owner had re-supported the floor with vertical beams, but water seeped out continually reminding me of the problem. A contractor gave me a bid of 40K to fix it. We ended up selling the place. We have owned other homes in the American mid-west with cracking foundations and water issues in the basements. It seems to be a hazard of the region. Sump pumps are wonderful for managing the water, but they don't fix the foundation.

Fortunately, I have never owned a home too close to a river, ocean or sinkhole. But when such buildings have their foundations undermined, the collapses are sudden, spectacular and perilous. You can see it coming in many cases, if you pay attention, but there is nothing to be done but evacuate. Perhaps its the fault of the builders? Perhaps a lack of foresight? Perhaps it’s just a hazard of building anything in certain terrain where the view is beautiful, where water is abundant, where crops grow, where making a living is easier than where ground is hard, dry and stable. Certain precautions can be taken with wet ground--giving the pressurized water a route of escape. But too often it seems that the builders wanted to save money and create a quick easy structure and not worry about what would happen 40 years down the road.

In the past week, I have noticed a few posts on the boards about economic collapse, economic decline and how fast it might happen. I thought many more might be wondering the same things, and indeed the burning question in my mind these days has to do with the collapse of our nation's, indeed, the world's, financial system. Clearly, it has been unwisely constructed upon shifting, unstable fiat currencies. The bankers put band-aids on immediate issues, but have set up the economy for trouble later (perhaps sooner). Meanwhile, the architects of these currencies profit greatly and have a means of control that no person should have over an entire economy. And when the erosion forces of time, hidden underground water, or the violent forces of floods, waves or shifting ground inevitably exert their will, these fiat architects have no answers. Collapse is inevitable. But but is our foundation simply crumbling due to pressure & stress, or is the entire hillside being undermined. Will this “collapse” be sudden or incremental.

I am arguing, to anyone who will listen, that the collapse will be incremental, somewhat speedy, and have to avoid several hazards that could bring sudden disaster along the route. Verily I say unto thee, the beginning of the decline may be at hand with the ending of the petrodollar system.

Jim Sinclair: Russia Can Collapse US Economy, Gold Update, Silver is Gold on Steroids & More

I urge you to watch Jim Sinclar's recent interview if you have not already. He says that "Russia has the dollar by the” uh … short hairs uh balls? ... uh ... “has the dollar ... right in their hand.” It would behoove us to recall that the US played a part in the collapse of the Soviet Union not that long ago. I can't imagine Putin (or the Russian citizens) has any sympathy for the US. Russia will do what is good for Russia, and that means breaking the petrodollar system. All Russia has to do, says Sinclair, is accept other currencies for their energy products. And Putin is headed to china to likely sign such an arrangement, one that they have been negotiating.

A few years ago, my daughter and I climbed up to the top of a cliff that overlooked my home town. The view was fabulous. but the route back down was hazardous, with slippery places along the trail where, if one fell, you could tumble off and pretend you were Wesley in The Princess Bride yelling "As you wish..." until you were dashed on the rocks below. Our current situation is like that trail. Unstable, downward sloping, with the risk of disaster upon a misstep.

In a best case scenario, the world reserve currency is under attack. The US will see the inflation of commodities as the rest of the world no longer needs to buy dollars to convert their fiat into energy. The petrodollar's days are numbered. The value of dollars will decline. Cost push inflation will create more expensive imports. Increasing oil prices will increase food transportation costs. My rural students squealed about the price of gas when it hit 4.25. They couldn't afford the gas to drive to work and school.

When I say "incremental," I mean quick, definite increments. Not a long slow decline, but steeper, fairly fast, and fraught with the cliffs of banking freezes, war, grid shutdowns, food scarcity due to transportation shutdowns, rioting & martial law. I can't see rioting in the US being widespread. the first few riots will be met with a very heavy hand and the images of police quelling the action promptly will be splashed all over every media outlet. I bet DHS and the police are itching to try out their new gear!

The US is treading a narrow steep narrow trail, with Russia's goad at our backs. But Russia and China don't want the US and the West to completely collapse, which would not be in their best interest. They want and need a stable world economy. They want the west to lose the wealth and power to them. They want to see the west's standard of living decline while theirs rises.

But these sociopathic, power-lusting, greedy, central bankers have created an untenable monetary system that is failing the citizens of the world. Their plan, the IMF Code of Reforms that will create the SDRs--the new international world reserve currency, their plan may stabilize things for a while, but the foundation is still in need of great repairs. Indeed, the waves are undermining it as I type. I am NOT convinced that greedy IMF-led bankers will man-up and do what is needed to create real stability. As I understand it, the SDR will be 25% backed by gold. Will that be sufficient to stabilize the 50% backing of fiat? Or is this like Nebuchadnezzar's statue with feet made partly of iron and partly of clay.

I have noticed that in spite of their high intelligence and shrewdness, sociopaths do not show extended foresight.

Well that's my theory. A quick steady decline (6 months to a year after the petrodollar is broken) with many risks that could bring on a fast collapse. I am hoping that this thread might test this theory with a sensible rationale and evidence. I am also wondering if Turdville readers actually have some kind of consensus.

By the way, My wife's sister is married to a City of Phoenix policeman--25 year veteran of the force. He and his comrades have been trained to deal with rioting recently. He had ridiculed his wife for a couple of years about her conspiracy theories and prepping, but a year ago he told her to "keep prepping." For her birthday last week, he bought her a pink assault rifle and encouraged her to use it if needed.

By the other way, I think my efforts to build cheap solar panels have been successful. The beta tests have been positive. I'll share more in a later post. The quick report is that my concerns were overblown and it was much easier to solder the cells together than I expected. However, paying .25-1.50 per watt for solar capacity may be the better alternative.

Buy gold my friends, it may become scarce before we know it.

About the Author

  123 Comments

metalsbyamile
Mar 24, 2014 - 1:11pm

They keep pushing for $1310

Certainly hope it holds but as i have mentioned for several weeks now is not the time to add to a new stack. If you are averaging that may present an opportunity.

I only swing trade my new positions while sitting on my core. I never trade my stack(s).

Should $1310 give way it looks like our next round number battle royal at $1300 presents fireworks.

I unfortunately expect the cartel to bomb that out of play and we touch 41290. IF that gives , uh, forget it, I do not want to contemplate it.

Based on the cyclical charts we should have our higher lows in by summer.

But then again it is all guess work and my guessing has been as good as Eric Von Prague's.

Bollocks
Mar 24, 2014 - 1:12pm
silver66 Mr. Fix
Mar 24, 2014 - 1:20pm

reply to sad

Your point is well made, however the other side of the equation is the people of the Ukraine appear unable to pull a 38 special out of their boot or a glock and squeeze off a few rounds. I think there is a high probability that would happen in the states

No one in the crowd looked as if they had "hunting" rifles with them,but my read as someone outside of the US is that many have "hunting" rifles and that complicates things for TPTB.

I think there is a simmering rage just under the surface and unceremoniously treating the masses happens once, then the old saying is applied. "Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me". I don't think the population gets fooled twice.

Hoping for wise and peaceful return to sound money and the rule of law

Silver66

metalsbyamile
Mar 24, 2014 - 1:25pm

Damn it $1310 is up again

Not liking it, not at all.The fall may continue. Remember my admonition(s) at $1380 plus that we could see a water fall that even i did not see coming.

Well here we are and it gives me no joy or pleasure to be right.

But i see a lot worse until June or July.

Ok, we just bounced 2 bucks. Wow, thank goodness.

SilverRunNW
Mar 24, 2014 - 1:51pm

@metalsbyamile

I sure hope you give the same enthusiasm and play by play when gold starts going back up.

You also provide a lot of "comment liquidity" behind the pay wall. WE ALL HAVE EYES TO SEE.

ancientmoney
Mar 24, 2014 - 2:15pm

Why the Ukraine was stirred up by the CIA . . .

It seems the objective achieved by installing a pro-western government in Ukraine was to smooth the way for TTIP, which is an agreement that will kill the euro, and cause the U.S. and Europe to become a trade zone using only the dollar.

From GEAB's latest:

"The Ukrainian crisis was probably triggered for no other reason than, ultimately, to force us to buy US shale gas (13), to sign the TTIP (without which the former can’t be sold in Europe (14)) and to justify a renewed increase of American-NATO military budgets (15) thanks to the restarting of a Cold War between the West and emerging nations (except for this detail that it’s the West which will be on the wrong side of the Iron Curtain this time)."

https://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-83-is-available-Global-systemic-crisis-escalation-in-the-US-reaction-for-survival-trigger-a-cold-war-to-make-it_a15801.html

The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) is the name of a trade agreement that is being negotiated between the European Union and the United States. The negotiations aim at removing trade barriers (tariffs, unnecessary regulations, restrictions on investment etc.) in a wide range of economic sectors so as to make it easier to buy and sell goods and services between the EU and the US. The EU and US also want to make it easier for their companies to invest in each other's economy.

DeaconBenjamin Bollocks
Mar 24, 2014 - 2:17pm

Bollocks

You are most welcome.

metalsbyamile SilverRunNW
Mar 24, 2014 - 2:17pm

Just a realist SRNW

Not a negative by any means, sorry if it comes off that way, just an average joe that hates seeing newbies(me being one of them) buy at the wrong times.

You bet I'm just as enthusiastic when we run skyward. I prefer to average up than down.It is encouraging to know you're not blind. Keeping it real is what it is all about. My G stack started at $600 , my S stack at $6 or $8 I'd have to look it up.

Metalsbyamile is not only my handle it's my mantra.

But like everything under the sun, their is a time to buy and a time to sell.

It sure is not time to sell.

Edit-I suppose what spurred me on was seeing all the posters encouraging , nay, preaching to stack more, buy buy buy. at $1380 plus, yet nary a comment when i warned every one that it was not the time. Lower prices coming. Here we are $80 to $90 bucks lower. For every 10 ozs that is almost another one added at these lower prices. And it will get lower in my opinion which makes it a better buy still. we mom and pops need the best buy we can get. In the long run it will not matter but trying to avoid a trap is better than stepping in it.

Again- If you review my comments you see how excited and positive i was/am trading GDXJ ect and yet a very negative tone about holding trading positions over night. That has worked out well for me, i hope for others as well.Also very negative about trading any core stack.

Bollocks
Mar 24, 2014 - 2:21pm

WTF

Ukraine Leader In New Leaked Recording: 8 Million Russians In Ukraine "Must Be Killed With Nuclear Weapons"

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/24/2014 - 13:48

After a month ago a leaked phone call between US assistant secretary of state Victoria Nuland and the US envoy to the Ukraine, Geoffrey Pyatt confirmed that it was the US that was pulling the strings in what was about to be a violent coup overthrowing Ukraine's president Yanukovich, "someone" has just leaked another phone conversation, this time between parliamentarian Nestor Shufrych and former PM and ideological leader of the Ukraine "revolution" Yulia Tymoshenko and most probable future president of West Ukraine, in which Tymoshenko makes several new threats but the the smoking gun, and where Putin once again shows just how masterful of a chess player he is, is the following statement by Tymoshenko, after asked, rhetorically, by her counterparty, "what should we do now with the 8 million Russians that stayed in Ukraine. They are outcasts"... to which she replies: "They must be killed with nuclear weapons."

And just like that Putin has his provocation carte blanche - because the second something, anything happens to any ethnic Russian in east Ukraine, Putin can point to precisely this conversation as proof of how Ukraine's "government" feel toward the ethnic minorities in the east, and why "they deserve to be protected." Which has been precisely Putin's ploy all along.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-24/ukraine-leader-new-leaked-recording-8-million-russians-ukraine-must-be-killed-nuclea

metalsbyamile Bollocks
Mar 24, 2014 - 2:23pm

re WTF

Holy Crap. Is it true?

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 8/5

8/5 9:45 ET Markit services PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM services PMI
8/6 10:00 ET Job Openings
8/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
8/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 7/29

7/30 8:30 ET Personal Inc/Spending & Core Inflation
7/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
7/31 8:15 ET ADP employment
7/31 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
7/31 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
8/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
8/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
8/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
8/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 7/22

7/23 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 10:00 ET Richmond Fed Manu Idx
7/24 9:45 ET flash Markit PMIs
7/25 8:00 ET Count Draghi/ECB policy meeting
7/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/25 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 7/15

7/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Index
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Import Price Index
7/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
7/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
7/19 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 7/8

7/9 8:45 ET Fed Stress Conference, three Goon speeches
7/10 8:30 ET CGP Hump-Hawk prepared remarks
7/10 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk House
7/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/10 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/11 8:30 ET CPI
7/11 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk Senate
7/11 12:30 ET Goon Williams
7/12 8:30 ET PPI

Forum Discussion

by sierra skier, Sep 15, 2019 - 8:05am
by atarangi, Sep 15, 2019 - 3:20am
by NW VIEW, Sep 14, 2019 - 12:22pm
by Green Lantern, Sep 14, 2019 - 11:39am
by sierra skier, Sep 14, 2019 - 9:47am
randomness