Not Over By A Longshot
As things continue to worsen, geopolitically and economically, are you really surprised? Are you preparing accordingly?
Jeez, I don't even know where to start but it's late and I've got to start somewhere. First, I have to tell you where I've been...
I don't know if you've noticed, by my Wednesday morning posts always come in late. The reason is a New Year's resolution. Every Wednesday morning, I go to yoga with MrsF. Nothing complicated, just "yoga basics". But it's an hour out of the office and, by the time I get rolling on "work", it's usually about 11:00 am EST. Sorry for the delays but...I'm an old man...pushing 50...and I don't want to be an inflexible, hobbling even older man. So, once a week, I enter a room with about 20 moms and retirees and contort myself into all sorts of funny positions. The only guy in the room has to look a little out of place but I've yet to get any questions as to how and why I can afford to be in yoga and not an office somewhere. If all those gals only knew that my real name is "Turd"...
The Crimean Crisis only continues to deepen today and I have no doubt that, despite the prayers and wishes of The American Media, it won't be SPUN and MOPEd away like everything else. And Woody is such an idiot. I've known since 2009 that he is hopelessly incompetent and underqualified for the task and each "crisis" only proves my point. Take this latest. Woody completely paints himself into a corner re Syria last summer, only to have Putin save his bacon with an "offramp". So now Woody, in his arrogance, thinks Putin has made the same mistake and needs a similar "offramp". What a dope. Putin is doing what Putin wants because Putin can. He holds all the cards! And besides, he's only responding to a situation deliberately created by "the West". (the latest: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-05/behind-kiev-snipers-it-was-somebody-new-coaltion-stunning-new-leak-reveals-truth) Can you blame him at this point? Look, I'm no fan of Putin. For all intents and purposes, he's a dictator in a country that likely needs one. But if I was him, I'd be pretty sick of this crap, too.
The U.S. and the EU arrogantly believe that they are "in charge". FOOLS! At a time of their choosing, the Russians, Chinese and the rest of the EurAsain Alliance will completely reset the Global Financial System. "The West" should be working with them, not against them. Instead, western political leaders and central bankers cling to their power in the hopes that tomorrow might be just like yesterday. I can assure you, it won't. Your only hope to survive and prosper is the physical possession of sound money, gold and silver. Nothing else can protect you from what is coming.
So as the American media SPINs and MOPEs their way through another day, you need to be a realist and keep stacking. Just this morning, we got another lousy and awful economic data point, this one coming courtesy of the ADP employment survey. Well below "expectations" and with downward revisions to the previous three months, a realist would take it for what it's worth. But not CNBS, the Bullion Banks and the sell-side analysts. Nope. It's all just "weather-related" and "one-off". NO IT'S NOT YOU LYING SHILLS! The great ZeroHedge summed it all very well and a C&P is below with the link. Please read, understand and comprehend:
"More snow. That is the assessment of Mark Zandi (The Shill) and the ADP Private Payrolls, which just printed at 139K on expectations of a 155K print. But don't worry: the number was pre-spun for idiot consumption, as the 139K was actually an increase from the January 127K. What was not said is that the January number was a massive revision lower from the previously announced 175K. What will also not be said is that the December ADP print was revised lower from 227K to 191K and the November 289K was chopped off and revised to only 245K. Of course, both of those numbers were massive beats at the time, and have now become misses, but who cares: they have served their algo kneejerk reaction purposes. And while the data is complete garbage, and is obviously manipulated and goalseeked (as we have shown before), it should be welcome to the US to know that in February it generated a whopping 1,000 manufacturing jobs."
Back to The Crimean Crisis...Watch Platinum and Palldium for clues as to whether it's heating up or cooling off as Russia is a significant producer and exporter of both. Both metals have continued to rally yesterday and today while gold and silver have been capped. There's some news for you, huh?!? Whatever. Regardless, take a look at the series of charts below. The blue arrows denote the April 12-15 smashdowns that affected all four. Note, however, where all four are now priced relative to that date. Hmmm. I'm sure the fact that gold and, particularly, silver are lagging so significantly is completely related to supply and demand.
Speaking of silver, March Comex deliveries continue at a brisk pace with 1,576 so far this month. Of those, the JPM proprietary "House" account has stopped 1,071 of them for 67.96% and 5,355,000 ounces of supposedly physical silver. This simply continues the trend that began last summer with the July deliveries. Back then, out of the blue, JPM House suddenly began to hoard Comex deliveries, stopping that month 3,040 of the 3,444 total deliveries. This trend has continued unabated in the time since. If we compile all Comex deliveries since and including December of last year, JPM House has NET stopped 3,864 of the 7,149 total. Now, let's add everything together:
MONTH JPM HOUSE NET STOPS TOTAL ISSUES
July 13 3,040 3,444
CME no longer provides data for Aug, Sep, Oct and Nov and I can't find it in my records.
Dec 13 2,015 3,307
Jan 14 980 1,672
Feb 14 -202 594
Mar 14 1,071 1,576
TOTAL 6,904 10,593
So, while JPM has been NET SHORT anywhere from 10,000 to 20,000 silver futures contracts on the Comex, they also been taking delivery of nearly 7,000 contracts! Does this not look to you exactly like the old Chinese strategy of dump/pressure the futures market while accumulating the physical commodity?
I mean, for crying out loud, just since July JPM has purchased nearly 35,000,000 ounces of silver!! Over the same time period, the U.S. Mint has sold just over 27,000,000 ounces and they can't keep up! They're rationing, suspending sales and pulling all sorts of other stunts in order to meet demand.
So let me get this straight...over the past eight months, JPM has managed to accumulate more silver than the U.S.Mint has sold. All the while, price has stayed flat and so has JPM hedge book. Remember, Blythe assured us the "JPM never makes directional bets". "That would be wrong" and "we'd never do that". RRRRRRrrrrrriiiiiiggggghhhhhtttttt.......
Again, meh, whatever. All I know is that I bought another 40 ounces just this week...and at a deeply discounted price to reality. If JPM is going to price silver for their own selfish purposes, I might as well play along and take equal advantage.
That's all for now. I'll have a full podcast later because I sure feel like I've got a lot more to say.