$1320 by Valentine's Day

Fri, Feb 14, 2014 - 7:32pm

As we watch the metals rally this evening (Thursday) and many of you wonder again whether Turd might be a witch, a soothsayer or a psychic, I thought it best to update you with this rare, evening post as tomorrow promises to be a day of significance.

Where to begin? Let's start with the present. Earlier today, as gold was struggling to gain a toe-hold above $1300 and silver was still capped below $20.40, I added this comment to the "Coiled & Ticking" thread:

Well let's just see what happens...
Submitted by Turd Ferguson on February 13, 2014 - 12:19pm.
IF I'm correct in assuming that JPM is "letting things run" a bit, then maybe just maybe we'll get our pop through 1300 and 20.40 on the Globex this afternoon.
Watch closely...

Well, as you know by now, price did rally on The Globex and silver actually traded over $20.50 and gold got to $1302. The next milestone was going to come from Asia. Would prices rally there? So far, we have our answer as I have a last for gold at $1304 and silver at $20.79. Frankly, I was already planning this evening update but, when I saw the spike in silver, I knew I had to get it done.

First of all, the spike in silver through $20.60 is not The Spike or The Squeeze. Don't get me wrong, moving through $20.60 clearly engendered some buying but this isn't all short-squeezing. The real Spike and Squeeze will come tomorrow at the Comex open IF...AND THAT'S A HUGE IF...price can stay above $20.60 all the way to 8:25 EST. There are obviously still some who would prefer to see silver stay down as long as possible and you can be certain that they will try to drive price back down over the next 12 hours. Will they be successful, though? That is question #1.

Gold is rallying, too, and moving away from $1300. I mentioned several times earlier today that I did not expect "round number resistance" at $1300 and, as expected, we didn't see it. So, with price tonight at $1304, can gold build on this early momentum and rally into the Comex open? Will The London Monkeys try to beat it back or will they continue to stand down? Those are important questions but here's the biggest and most important: Can gold rally again on Friday and then close above the critical 200-day moving average, which is currently near $1310 for spot and $1312 for the Apr14? That is question #2.

And then there are the mining shares. At this point, I need you to do me a favor. Please click this link. Go through this post from 1/23/14 and review all of the charts, making note of where prices stand this evening. https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/5411/miner-possession

OK, now that you're back, I have another question for you: Are you convinced yet that I really am a witch? Do you feel that this is the best $10/month you've ever spent? Sorry...The question is: Can the miners rally and extend tomorrow? Because IF the HUI can extend and close past 240 and IF the individual shares you just reviewed can continue to rally through the resistance points so many are approaching, what will that say about the likelihood of metals prices gaining even more momentum next week? How the miners behave tomorrow is extremely important. Will they continue rallying tomorrow? That is question #3.

So here are some charts to study. I've marked them up a little differently this evening as I've only drawn resistance lines. The red lines are where I expect price to encounter difficulty. Let's start with silver because there's a whole lot of them.

Let's take them one by one. First, $20.60 is HUGE because it represents the top of the latest three-month, double-bottoming range. Breaking through there tomorrow morning will set off a whole host of buy-stops from foolish shorts who thought silver would stay down forever. Though there's horizontal resistance at $21, the next major hurdle will be the 200-day MA for the Mar14 contract, currently near $21.20. Now here's where tonight's action really matters. Let's presume that a decent squeeze at the Comex open is good for 50¢ or so. Well, if price can hold near $20.80 until then, the 200-day will get violated at the open, setting off even more stops and propelling silver toward $22. (Do you see now why I wrote this back on Wednesday? https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/5481/still-looking-good)

The next major resistance for silver will be $22. Why? That is the point at which price finally bottomed in the wee hours of April 16, after the massive 2-day beatdown scheme was over. Getting above there will prove to just about every remaining skeptic that The Bottom is in...something Turdites have known for months. From there, $23 will be tough but $24 shouldn't be. $25 will be a major challenge but it will pale in comparison to The Major Battle of $26.

Now let's look at gold. Here's the chart:

Let's start with the aforementioned 200-day MA. Closing above $1312 tomorrow would be huge. Closing above $1320 would be enormous. Can gold do it? Yes. Will it?

Regardless, if not tomorrow then likely next week. Why? Because even though $1320 has been a consistent resistance/support area for years and, like $22 silver, it marks the low from 4/16/13, I've come to the conclusion that that's not where the next major fight will be. Just like how I didn't expect $1300 to be a big deal, IF gold can get through and close above the 200-day MA, then $1320 won't be that great of an obstacle.

The real battle and resistance will emerge instead near $1350 and the confluence of both horizontal resistance and the down-sloping trendline that connects the highs of late April and late August of last year. IF/WHEN gold breaks that trendline, the reaction from gold bears will be identical to the reaction in silver bears to seeing silver above $22. "UH-OH!!" And it's possible that gold will reach $1350 and silver $22 at about the same time, too. Coincidence?

And then here's the HUI. Recall that we started paying attention when it broke through 210. When it broke its 50-day, I perked up and the immediate assault on the 100-day was impressive. Now, IF IT CAN CLOSE ABOVE THE 200-DAY AGAIN TOMORROW, it will be primed to run to about 255 next and, once above there, 285.

Again, I must caution you...These shares have come a long way in a short period of time. Therefore, they will be subject to sharp corrections and pullbacks just like yesterday. And think about it, the HUI was at 190 just two months ago. A move to 285 would constitute a 50% rally. WOW! So now is not the time to jump in with both feet. As I recommended a month ago, now is the time to accumulate, a little at a time. make some fiat and convert your gains to physical.

Additionally, even if you don't own a single share, you must watch the HUI as an important guage of sentiment. IF it can continue to rally, the metals will rally, too. A HUI at 285 looks to equate to about $1450 gold so, if the miners keep going...

Here is a 3-month HUI chart and a 12-month HUI chart. The squiggly line is the 200-day MA and the red lines are likely resistance levels:

So there you go. Get ready for a very interesting and important Friday. To recap, there are three vital questions:

  • Can silver hold tonight's gains and head into The Comex open already well above $20.60?
  • Can gold close on Friday above the critical 200-day moving average, currently near $1312 in the Apr14?
  • Can the miners hold and extend today's gains and, if so, can the HUI put in a weekly close above it's 200-day near 235?

Good night and good luck.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()
Does Feb19 Comex gold close above $1250 on Friday?
Total votes: 183


oneagleswings · Feb 14, 2014 - 7:57pm

2nd first

no comments

Bullion Baron · Feb 14, 2014 - 7:58pm
The REAL SilverHawk · Feb 14, 2014 - 8:11pm

Janet's Yellin "I'm sellin"

Janet's Yellin "I'm sellin" and 4 days ago, my $2.00 launch prediction only pans out a buck for the week. I'll take it. Stock Market looks like it's on real shaky ground and the panic sell-off is any day now. Futures last night were down over 100, until the morning when they recovered. Throwing that money at it to keep it up just one more day...

They're behind schedule. The EMP attack over Charleston SC with those stolen Nukes from Minot or Dyess, was foiled by some patriotic Generals, who are now unemployed. And now what are they going to do with the 50-ish foreign warships that are docked off the Atlantic coast, that are waiting to attack? 

We got less than 2 months, and it's survival mode.

dragonfly5 · Feb 14, 2014 - 8:16pm

Thurd!!!! Top ten – just


Top ten – just because – one less thing off the bucket list.

Hoping these new highs hold – feeling somewhat vindicated – none the less have been DCA the past year – being very patient and adding to my modest (very modest pile of AU) – only $5 away from breaking even and regardless the paper price so happy to be in possession of real money.

Turd – thanks for all you do. If silver can take and hold above $22 in the near future you should post your hat eating again – in reverse.

Now to read the article – quality of writing outside the vault is stellar – hardly ever post but lurk a lot – so much to learn.

Mr. Fix · Feb 14, 2014 - 8:18pm

First 2nd !

Well, it has been a very long time.wink

 Happy Valentine's Day to everyone, and here's hoping that we can have a nice rally without the world coming unglued.

 If the bankers have run out of options, for keeping the prices of our metals suppressed, then we can be sure they have something else up their sleeve,

 and it won't be pretty. 

 Maybe I'm just too damn pessimistic, and maybe I read too much doom and gloom, but if the metals actually take off before the economy implodes, I will be sitting pretty.

 When I started saying there will be no significant rise in the price of precious metals until the system implodes, gold was hovering around $1700, and silver was in the 30s.

 We've got a very long way to go, and time is short.

 Let's see what happens.

dgstage · Feb 14, 2014 - 8:20pm

The Price Nice, Not the Chaos


Bongo Jim · Feb 14, 2014 - 8:35pm

The Shadow

1318 and 21.44 at the moment....what's next??? Only The Shadow knows.

dgstage · Feb 14, 2014 - 8:52pm

Some Good Facts

20 Signs That The Global Economic Crisis Is Starting To Catch Fire


AlienEyes · Feb 14, 2014 - 9:22pm


You would be a warlock.....unless you've had some unexpected surgery....which I strongly doubt. wink

Patrancus · Feb 14, 2014 - 10:14pm

Global Economic Crisis

it's already effecting us treasury bond prices just since yields topped 3% at year end, if global economic crisis goes to complete financial conflagration, it then could turn into global flight to safety bond buying bonanza and providing financing for trillions in new us spending, leaving congress, Ob's a us treasury and Fed rolling in orgasm. keep stacking

Safety Dan · Feb 14, 2014 - 10:29pm

IRS scandal & Targeting .... Tell me it ain't so..

I encourage you to watch Catherine Engelbrbecht’s brief testimony here.

The IRS scandal caused a massive uproar last year when it was revealed that the agency was deliberately targeting non-profit political groups solely based on their names or political themes.

One of those groups was called True the Vote, a grassroots, non-partisan organization that recruits and trains volunteers to monitor elections.

The founder and president of True the Vote, Catherine Engelbrecht, recently gave testimony to the House Oversight & Government Reform Subcommittee on Regulatory Affairs in which she revealed how the US government used mafia tactics to go after her, her organization, family, and her private business.

As she explained, before founding her non-profit organization a few years ago, her life was ordinary.

Since founding it, though, she has been subjected to more than 15 instances of audit or inquiry by federal agencies ranging from the IRS, FBI, the Bureau of Tobacco, Alcohol, Firearms and Explosives, etc.

In 2012, her business was subjected to inspection by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA). And even though the agency said it found no significant irregularities, it still issued a fine of $20,000.

The FBI even investigated her non-profit organization on SIX separate occasions in conjunction with domestic terrorism cases.

This is sickening. While her only ‘crime’ was to try to make the government more transparent, the government went out of its way to ruin her.

She tells her story in a quick seven-minute account. It’s a chilling reminder of what happens when you challenge the state.

Patrancus · Feb 14, 2014 - 11:24pm

IRS scandal & Targeting

represents a defining moment in these once free United States of America where now we have entered into a time of blatant lawlessness in government and the next phase to come is Anarchy, which is what I believe defines exactly what Anarchy is, lawlessness in government.

Fred Hayek · Feb 14, 2014 - 11:48pm

Fantastic piece over at SRS Rocco's site

I recommend that folks go to the article at the link to SRS Rocco's site, below. And try the piece by Savoie about the Pilgrim's Society. I believe these are the same guys who Jeff Nielson of Bullion Bulls Canada refers to as the "One Bank" after their huge web of corporate control was identified by a swiss study. 

Read the excerpts from newspaper articles of the early 1930's about how the british were dumping truly epic amounts of Indian silver on world markets and how this was ruining the economies of the countries who used silver as money (including China) and how this was a significant cause of the great depression.

Before this, I felt like I had a decent conception of the causes of the Great Depression thanks to Murray Rothbard and others. There was the Federal Reserve spigot stuck open 1926-1929 then nearly shut off in 1929, Smoot-Hawley tariff and asinine Hoover policies to keep wages high that actually promoted unemployment. These and the usual vulnerable fractional reserve banking. 

But read the whole attachment in the article. There are newspaper excerpts about the suspect usual types attacking silver and ruining the economies of entire countries, all with a sinister indifference to right or wrong and whom they hurt or ruin. I now realize that I was only looking at one corner of a puzzle covering an entire coffee table, thinking I was seeing the whole picture while just out of my peripheral vision were huge swaths of pieces missing. 


Marcus · Feb 15, 2014 - 12:38am

Turd doesn't have a crystal ball

He has crystals balls.

Safety Dan · Feb 15, 2014 - 12:42am

Gold is not backed by anything? Really?

Gold is not backed by anything? Really?

... an old one but a good one.. Listen to the understanding of one TV Financial New Commentator in this 49 sec video.

Gold is not backed by anything? Really?

Makes one wonder what we have to do to educate others;

Gold is money and has been for 4 millennium, therefore needs no backing...

Don't believe me, look who's buying it for a store of wealth; central banks (yes even the Fed as the commentator mentions), wealthy and elite among others.

Makes me wonder how much gold the Rothschild or Rockefellers or CIA's fund own.... (Black Eagle https://gold.greyfalcon.us/gold11.html ) https://www.wanttoknow.info/911/black_eagle_trust_fund

jchantel · Feb 15, 2014 - 12:43am

Money WELL Spent

If you are on the outside and wondering if $10 a month is worth the content and community on the inside...wonder no more! Turd is rock solid in his approach to the markets with more right calls than just about every other site I follow combined! You won't find a better precious metals site out there. Add to that an amazing group of folks with a wide rang of professional and life experience.

I travel a lot for my work and love to listen to Turd's daily podcasts as I drive. In short...try it out for a month and if you don't get much more than your money's worth what have you really lost? 

mac · Feb 15, 2014 - 12:56am

Spike On Sunshine!

Richard Russell says the Gov't is lying all the time about the economy. Lying, telling untruths. Untrustworthy. Memorize this, ok? Untrustworthy. Can you believe anything they say? PC Roberts, former Assit. Treasury Sec of USA says: "No".

And Celente: "When all else fails they take us to war."

Richard Russell says the US Gov't has NO Gold!

Have a good healthy weekend.

SilverLeaf · Feb 15, 2014 - 1:13am

Witch, soothsayer, or...

...blind squirrel getting the occasional nut...or broken clock occasionally being right. It's so hard to say...

Calling a spade a spade, this is the same witch/soothsayer/squirrel/clock that has repeatedly and consistently made horrendously bad calls since the spring of 2011. That's 3 consecutive years of terrible (truly stupendously, horrendously) bad calls.

Look, it doesn't take much forecasting ability when gold is at 1302 on the back of several days strength, to *throw out a guess* that it might end the next trading day with a $20 pop. Similarly, it doesn't take much to *guess* that after 11 days of solid gains and after showing no sign of weakness, that silver might break through $20.48 resistance that's been holding it back since November (especially given gold's strength and silver's propensity to follow), and that it would get a significant bump once it clears that level. I would have been more in awe if you'd made this prediction publicly 2 months ago.

To cement your status as a soothsayer/witch, please tell us where silver is going to be (+ 0r - $2) by mid April and late May, and early September...and then (minor detail) actually be proven right in your predictions.

Excalibur · Feb 15, 2014 - 4:05am

latest from belangp

This video is about the relative supply and demand of gold and silver, and how that effects investors.

DayStar · Feb 15, 2014 - 7:31am

RE: Witches

The Bible says, "Thou shalt not suffer a witch to live" (Exodus 22:18).


Patrancus · Feb 15, 2014 - 8:20am

US goberment has no gold,

they have no silver either.

LongGoldLongSilver · Feb 15, 2014 - 8:24am

Please keep going up!

It's been an amazing month...well at least it feels like it after years of dismay. It's funny how you start feeling stressed about getting back in the miners again as we're still very far from the 480 area on the HUI that used to be solid support.


DayStar · Feb 15, 2014 - 8:29am

Harvey's Up! (TFMR)

  • Egon von Greyerz on the price of gold: The markets are setting up for hyperinflation in many countries because of excessive money printing, leading to collapsing currencies. The gold price will simply continue to reflect the falling currencies. Initially we will have an orderly rise of gold and silver, but in the next few years financial markets will not be orderly. As a result of the major structural problems in the world and in the world economy and in the financial system, there will be collapses of currencies and money printing will become disorderly. This will lead to an exponential rise in gold and silver, and we won’t just reach my longstanding target of $10,000+ for gold, but also Jim Sinclair’s $50,000 figure. And if the $1.4 quadrillion derivatives bubble blows up, we could easily see gold at a Weimar price level, which was $100 trillion. the good part of all of this is the network of family and friends will again become the core of society, just as this is happening in Greece today.
  • John Williams: If the economy will not grow, just redefine it. The US economy continues to stagnate and turn down anew, as part of the deepest and longest economic downturn seen since the Great Depression. With actual business activity moribund, the US government once again has turned to redefining a major economic series, so as to boost a reported activity.
  • Richard Russell: I believe the world is in a depression. We're being lied to by a frightened and desperate government and Federal Reserve. Sooner or later the US public is going to realize that we're in a depression. The government and the Fed will fight the gathering depression with lies and propaganda. To fight the depression, the Fed will open the money spigots wide, creating new trillions of “dollars.” Some wise investors are aware of all this, which is why gold continues to push higher. IF we had the actual gold, I feel that the US would unilaterally raise the price of gold to $5,000 or $10,000 an ounce. The government is not doing this because we don't have the gold. Once the news of the US gold reserves being depleted is out, this will result in an unbelievable scandal. Once the dollar index closes below 80, the fireworks should start. How many items can the Fed manipulate? Sooner or later the Fed will lose its grip on bonds, the dollar, stocks or gold. I think gold over 1300 suggests that the Fed is losing its grip. Actual physical gold is becoming scarce. With gold climbing over $1300 today, we've seen the end of bargain-priced gold. 
  • Harvey: Today we witnessed gold rise again despite the antics of our banker friends, finishing the Comex session at $1318.50. The big winner today was silver which broke the 20 dollar barrier to finish the day at $21.41. Gold is now at the next resistance level and if we penetrate $1320, sky is the limit. With silver, the next resistance level is around $23.50. The huge rise in the silver price and the speed of the rise has caught the silver shorts in a huge panic. If silver explodes into the 23 level barrier one will witness a lot of blood on the streets. GOFO rates are still moving strongly to the negative in direction. All are months moving towards backwardation with the first THREE months already in backwardation.
  • William Kaye: The main argument for there not being another 400 tonnes beat down at these levels is the physical off-take in China is enormous at the moment. For the suppression scheme to succeed, there has to be an ability to deliver gold that is under the control of the cartel from places like London and Switzerland, to Shanghai and Hong Kong, and to be able to do it in reasonably short order. So my take on why we’ve seen this retreat by the cartel is that at these price levels demand for physical is simply too great. It strains their ability to meet these obligations if they try to keep the price below $1,300 any longer. So the bias I have at the moment is gold will continue migrating higher until some of these strains get removed. In the near-term, the GOFO lease rates have gone negative and gold has stayed consistently in backwardation territory for the last several weeks and even months. So unless some of these strains get removed, gold will migrate higher to the low-to-mid $1,400s before it becomes a vicious battle again.
  • Mark O’Byrne: Gold is up 3.3% this week and headed for the biggest weekly advance since October as U.S. economic data was again worse than expected. This increased safe haven demand and the biggest exchange-traded product saw holdings rise to a two-month high. Call options on gold, giving the buyer the right to buy June 2015 futures at $2,200 an ounce, surged 24% to a five-week high as prices climbed to a three-month high. Gold has traded above the 100 day moving average since February 10, and is heading for a close above the 200 day moving average for the first time since February 2013. A weekly close above the 200 day moving average [[B]DS: [/B]It did] and the psychological level of $1,300/oz will be very positive for gold and could lead to gold challenging the next level of resistance at $1,357/oz and $1,434/oz. Gold is up 5.3% so far in February and 9.3% so far this year as concerns about emerging market markets, currencies, and the U.S. economy boosted safe haven demand.
  • Egon von Greyerz: On the surface it looks like there is deflation on the way. Japan is failing to inflate and China is tightening because of the problems in their banking system and shadow banking system. The EU banking system has also restricted lending. This has led to the ECB having reduced its balance sheet substantially. In the US there is now tapering of $20 billion per month. If this continues we will have a deflationary implosion of the world economy. We will have a total collapse of the financial system because the massive debt cannot be repaid in that environment. money printing is not the solution. Worthless pieces of paper cannot create wealth. Whether central banks print or don’t print wealth, they are doomed because either alternative is catastrophic for the world. They are just a different way of reaching the end game. As Ludwig von Mises said, ‘There is no way of avoiding the final collapse.’ This collapse will be a final catastrophe for the already fragile global fiat currency system.
  • Mark O'Byrne: It is important to note that while the U.S. money supply did not increase much in the final year of Bernanke’s stewardship of the Fed, it has accelerated as he leaves and Yellen takes over. Money supply in the form of M2 has surged in January and February and has doubled in pace so far this year. 
  • William Kaye: The official story is that we have five suicides. And no one is attempting to connect the dots. No one is digging beneath the surface. These were not people who fit any kind of clinical description of being depressed or having given up on life. They were all making pretty decent money and very successful in their careers. The common denominator in at least four of those supposed suicides is they were senior officials for banks that were very knowledgeable about the manipulation of gold and FOREX markets, and were possibly involved in complicated derivative operations or programming source codes. This all would have been focused on the high-frequency trading that would result in the manipulation of these markets. These are criminal banking institutions and they work together as a criminal banking syndicate. So it’s reasonable to believe that they would behave just as a criminal syndicate in this situation would behave. Meaning, they would order people who were a severe threat to exposing their abuse of these markets to be taken out or killed.
  • Alasdair Macleod: Hong Kong's exports of 211 tonnes to China are fabricated gold not destined for the SGE (see the table above). In addition there are 1,284 tonnes of re-exports, which we can assume are bars for onward delivery to the SGE so are included in the SGE delivery total. Hong Kong also imports gold from China (337 tonnes), most of which is sold as jewellery to Chinese visitors from the mainland avoiding Chinese sales taxes. Hong Kong also acts as a regional hub, exporting and re-exporting gold to Taiwan, Thailand, India etc., which in 2013 amounted to 54 and 93 tonnes respectively.
  • Total demand in China and Hong Kong adjusted for these factors is therefore the bottom-line figure of 2,668 tonnes. This does not include gold imported directly through Mainland China and gold not sold through the SGE. Furthermore, ultra-rich Chinese can buy gold outside China and there is no way this additional demand can be estimated. Nor can we estimate any gold bought in London and elsewhere by the Chinese government. Lastly, these figures do not include the net 48.5 tonnes of gold coin imported into China via Hong Kong, which if included takes known gold demand up to 2,716.5 tonnes. This is easily more than double the Chinese Gold Association figure for "gold consumption.
  • Peter Cooper: The prospect of another very strong rally in precious metal prices is growing by the day. An imminent stock market crash will transform the outlook for PM prices which have already confounded gloomy predictions for 2014 with a New Year rally [January and February] while share prices have fallen. Despite the collapse from almost $50 back to $18.50 since then and the recent rally this year, silver remains in a long-term secular bull market that started in 2000. What looks like a price disaster is actually an amazing buying opportunity. Take the experience of 2008-11. Silver went on a huge roller-coaster. Down 60 per cent in the crash and then rallying 600 per cent from the bottom of the sell-off. Buy-and-hold guys tripled their money by the market top in April 2011. 
  • Bill Holter: It is exactly BECAUSE the charts have been painted so beautifully that a breach of the 200 day moving average is very important...AND telling us something! It tells me that they have again lost or are losing control and that MUCH higher prices are coming. Is gold a signal? Or is it a "symptom"? Yes. I think that all of the above is tied together and that some sort of deal was struck recently in Davos. In my opinion, "we know" about it which is why the debt limit was eliminated so that we can play "internal ponzical chairs" to fund the game. I believe that we will need to "internally fund" because the demand for dollars is about to collapse as the "petro put" that has supported it for so long is pulled. Much of the above is speculation but, much of it is simply putting the pieces of the puzzle together logically. Whatever it is, gold rising above its 200 day moving average is saying that something has changed, maybe it's financial or maybe it's a military action...but whatever it is it's probably not for the better. We shall see. 
  • Bill Holter on Bitcon: I am and have been of the opinion that Bitcoin is a dry run or trial balloon for what will come after the current system collapses. Call me old fashioned if you want and browbeat me with as many "digits" as you'd like, you'll never convince me that if you cannot stand face to face with a "trader" under any conditions (including power outage, internet killed switch or the aftermath of an EMP etc.) and "make a deal" then what you have to trade is not "money". I highly doubt that Bitcon will be the new global currency that is sure to arise, but regardless of what arises, just as it has alwasys been, you are best to save natural money and you spend man made money. That is what is mean by "good money drives out bad". 
  • Zero Hedge: Chinese capital markets are quietly turmoiling as debt issues are delayed and demand for "Trust" products - the shadow-banking-system's wealth management 'investments' - is tumbling. This, of course, is exactly what the PBOC wanted (to instill some fear into these high-yield investors - demand - and thus slow the supply of credit to the riskiest over-capacity companies) but as non-performing loans in China surge to post-crisis highs, fear remains prescient that they will be unable to "contain" the problem once real defaults begin. 
  • Raul Gallegos: With the highest inflation on earth, rampant violence, declining oil output and a hobbled private sector, Venezuela seems instead to be on a sustainable path to economic ruin. 

All this and more on...

The Harvey Report smiley



Safety Dan · Feb 15, 2014 - 8:32am

Re: Turd's D Man & Cramer's NOT

Turd's honesty and sincerity show's in his work. Thank you for your integrity with a dose of humility. Some Financial Advisors like Jim Cramer intentionally mislead, see this 1:49 minute clip;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xLUvP9ycDx0 In this clip Cramer actually admits as head of a hedge fund he profited from some of his shenanigans. 

Cramer is obviously a clown, and his show is worth nothing more than silly entertainment. Anyone who thinks that actual serious and useful information can be gotten on the show is delusional. Cramer is a former partner of Goldman Sachs, which pretty much says it all.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARQJs-kgktQ  See other Financial Advisors call Cramer on his lack of integrity. 

Turd, again thank you for your hard work and great site, along with integrity. Wish I would have been long silver... HI HO Silver & Away!!!!!

daveyboy · Feb 15, 2014 - 8:39am

First post here for a little

First post here for a little while and will exclude from this post any remarks which question or even curry favour with analysts. I will instead just say that there is a seasonal drop which typically appears in the next month, so bear that in mind when looking to leap frog into guessing where silver is going to go but still, I will stick to my guess that silver will be around $24 by the end of the year.

¤ · Feb 15, 2014 - 9:37am

The Dark Mountain

Peakniks, Doomers and Collapse


  • The Peaknik
  • The Doomer
  • The extremists — Apocalyptic Outsiders.
  • Why Anarchic Collapse? What are the risks?
    1. Overpopulation and Overshoot
    2. ‘Net energy’ — fossil fuels were unique
    3. Complex systems collapse — “The spanner in the works”
    4. War
    5. Regional disasters
    6. Complete financial collapse
    7. The lot combined: Doomer groups
  • Debunking the ‘romance’ of collapse!
  • PS: Bright Green, Light Green, Dark Green and Grey

The Peaknik

The terms Peaknik, Doomer, and Apocalyptic Outsider that I detail below are important terms of reference in the peak oil culture.

A ‘Peaknik’ is interested in the Hubbert Peak theory of oil depletion. They try to to warn politicians; try to prevent the worst case scenarios; try to prepare society. Even if no one is really listening. Peakniks tend to be activists and optimists. I count myself as one. Many believe that as society has ignored peak oil till now, the world will probably go into a Great Depression. However, there is a vast difference between an economic collapse and acivilisation collapse! Us peakniks are still optimists, despite the reality of oil depletion.

The word Peaknik is a neologism — it a variation of the term peacenik. The use of “-nik” evokes a counterculture attitude to the status quo ambivalence about oil supplies.

The Doomer

Doomers are Peakniks that believe peak oil is going to lead to economic collapse, societal disruption, international tension, even war. Doomers will argue for hours that there is no technical or social solution. For them, agriculture’s dependence on oil suggests an inevitable Malthusian Catastrophe. Disaster lies ahead! There be dragons! Except this is not about medieval sailors marking the edge of the map, but sceptical, diligent scientists marking the limits of our ability to adapt to an oil depleted world.

Many don’t campaign as a result, but either resolve themselves to join a small survivalist community, or resign to whatever doom fate deals. Websites like Oildecline.com cater to doomers that want to get off the grid and prepare for the coming storm, whether or not John Connor or Eli will be there to rescue them!

The extremists — Apocalyptic Outsiders

Unfortunately peak oil can attract a cult-like pathology. In many cults the extreme views of adherents has placed them outside of the mainstream. Because they feel alienated and judged by society, they return the favour and judge society. Cults like the Branch Davidians of Waco, Texas have been referred to as Apocalyptic Outsiders. Sadly, the peak oil meme can be corrupted in this manner and lead to consequences just as devastating, as one poor Australian family discovered.

I have noticed the tendency for some extreme Doomers to even want to keep peak oil to themselves. This is not characteristic of all Doomers, please don’t take offense if you hold little hope for civilisation at the end of the oil age. I am speaking about a very specific smugness about it all. It seems that the Apocalyptic Outsider has too much of their identity caught up in their end of civilisation belief system — to the point that if society did adapt successfully, these individuals would be disappointed!

The characteristics that mark the Apocalyptic Outsider are:

  • a tendency to gloat smugly over the coming destruction of civilization.
  • a judgmental attitude to the uninitiated (and even non-Doomer Peakniks are scolded for their inferior position.)
  • a tendency to kick back and enjoy esoteric discussions over the end of civilization — rather than actually doing anything about it
  • very harsh criticism of those who do try to raise awareness and promote solutions
  • can be obstructive, critical, destroy group moral
  • They tend to be white guys with a mid-life crisis, no social life, who want to hang out online and gripe about the world.
  • This Apocalyptic Outsider wants to fatalistically congratulate themselves for their clever perceptions rather than campaign, or even set up a Lifeboat as many other Doomers would.
  • Navel gazing time wasters. Avoid at all cost!

Why anarchic collapse — what are the risks?

How can these Doomers possibly believe this stuff? We survived the Cuban missile crisis, bird flu, and Y2K scares — what nutters still believe civilization can just fall apart?

Can I first of all state that the Doomer position represents a significant body of very academic work. Some loners might be in it for the hype, but the main body of the discussion involves some of our brightest academic minds. Just read through the many essays by concerned Professors and other academics at....(continued)


TomMack · Feb 15, 2014 - 9:49am

season of the witch?

must be......


stack on: be careful, it is not going to be easy.

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SilverLeaf · Feb 15, 2014 - 10:02am

Documented WRONG 99% of the time

Just makes it even more remarkable that I'm able to keep this site...and it's rapidly-growing subscriber base...going. There must be a lot of people out there fading me and taking the other side.

Rico · Feb 15, 2014 - 11:02am

TF, I didn't care for

TF, I didn't care for SilverLeaf's snarky post, but he's right to point out that your market calls suck--as, I am quick to point out, do just about everyones--because nobody has a working Crystal Ball. You provide a service here that lots of people enjoy, and some are willing to pay for. That is almost entirely about community, not fortune-telling. We all respect you for building this site, especially we ne'er-do-wells at PTC. As Pailin's self-appointed Goodwill Ambassador, I enjoin: Play to your strengths, and cut the carny barking. Peace

Silver_investor · Feb 15, 2014 - 11:15am

Thanks, TF

This answers my question. I've got to stop listening to Edelson. :-(

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