SPEED WOBBLE! HOLD ON TIGHT!

60
Sun, Feb 9, 2014 - 2:25pm

The first car I ever owned, several decades ago .... oh alright ... it was back in 1978 ... had a very funny feature. Well I suppose if I’m completely honest it had several funny features! Should I start with the sticky-slidy overlapping windows? How about the way you could see the road going by through rust holes in the floor (quickly soundproofed and covered up by a fine layer of good strong carpet!) ? My version didn’t have the wooden sides that a similar version of the same car sported, as it was the sister of the panelled countryman edition, the “estate” version! It was an Austin Mini Clubman. I have only one old black and white photo of that car left in my possession, but unfortunately I can't find it to scan as I type this.

It was painted a dark brown shade called peat, like as in the colour of wet peat from a bog. But we called it a certain more vulgar shade of brown. smiley Hey! We were young and having fun! And that first car of mine took us fishing every week for two years until it moved on to a new owner.

It cost #350 to buy, and doing the brakes up between my Dad and myself was free, (for me, he provided the parts and the beginner lessons in motor maintenance gratis, but his customers had to pay more for his services than I did) and educational, and fun. And the insurance hurt at my tender age .... it cost about the same as my brand new (nine year old) car.

I want to share with you a certain thing that old Mini used to do, something I had first experienced to my horror on bikes, but it was somehow a little less terrifying on four wheels than two. Now when this occurs on two wheels it scares the living wits of you, and all bikers know what I’m talking about. At 55mph that Mini of mine would develop a speed wobble.

Now not everyone who reads this will know what a speed wobble is, or have experienced one, so I should clarify the subject before proceeding. They occur with cars, tractor-trailers, a high pitch vibrating-breaking crystal glass is a kind of non moving example too. But in particular, motorcyclists fear them.

* * * *

From Harley Davison forums: (https://www.hdforums.com/forum/7963398-post25.html)

High speed wobble

Speed wobbles can occur whenever something starts a vibration that matches a resonant frequency of the wheels. A resonant frequency is one at which your motorcycle will vibrate very easily; a particular motorcycle may have multiple resonant frequencies. The starting point may be a bump in the road, a rough patch in the road, or some combination of these factors. Other potential contributing factors include the small torques resulting from wheel rotation and the tiny lateral oscillations that spinning wheels make if they're not aligned with absolute perfection.
Your motorcycle will go through various "zones" of oscillatory stability and instability as it accelerates up to its highest speed. you might even compare this to musical notes or octaves of relative vibrational resonance.

Steering dampers are made to help with this problem as the main damper ( you ) cannot always handle the correction of the vibrations.
As this can be a fatal but also unavoidable occurrence, the best advice is to slow down. Even though the problem may go away with more speed, the best way to take the bike out of that particular resonance range is to back off.

The tread of your tires could also be a contributing factor.....
In addition to above, get both wheels statically and dynamically balanced. It reduces wobble, increases road holding .....
too much side play in the swing arm are sources of vibration. Check panier box lids are fitting properly and are locked. Lid 'chatter' in the wind can be one of those resonances mentioned above that sets wobble off.

Wobbling occurs when the front wheel and handlebars suddenly start shaking from side to side. This malfunction can occur at any speed. If your bike starts to wobble, remember the following instructions.

Don't try to accelerate out of a wobble, it will only make the cycle more unstable. Instead, firmly grip the handlebars; don't attempt to fight the wobble.

Gradually close the throttle to slow the motorcycle. Don't use your brakes; braking could make the wobble worse.

Adjust your weight as far forward and as low as possible.

Pull off the road as soon as it's safely possible, and try to correct the problem.

 * * * *

It’s fitting in a way that I quoted from that source (Harley Davidson forum), because my grandfather was a motor cycle racer who raced with Jim Davidson 40 years before the time we are talking about here.

So now you know what a speed wobble is, in theory. But do you appreciate what one is like in reality? I seriously doubt it.

Here is the result on a longboard during a fast downhill run:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=35WvCw9Qcqk

Just check the first bit of the clip. It’s kind of hard to see.

Let’s take another look, this time with more power, more weight, and a lot more speed involved:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JuHsgAX3TBY

Yes. That’s exactly what it is. And that’s how they usually end . Nothing gentle, one moment you're going at speed, in balance, the next a chaotic feedback loop of vibrational oscillation appears, increases fast, and an instant later either you survived it or you are eating dirt while your equipment, body and limbs get sanded away by the roadway surface as you slow down from the speed and bounce painfully on your ass.

Can they be survived, sometimes .... (click the play in youtube link - the embedded one won't work)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xzB6KSlD6ec

... but it takes incredible skill, with some luck. Those guys in the above video are uncanny.

So when my little car got to 55 it started to shake, by 60 it felt like it was going to fly apart into pieces (yeah I was mad enough to do it repeatedly until I could control it .. on four wheels) , and at 66 the car suddenly went all beautiful and silky smooth again, but somewhere deep inside the feeling lurked that maybe the wheels were no longer touching the road! I never dared to touch the brake pedal until below 55 again!

Recommendations for surviving the feedback loop of a speed wobble, once it has started, differ. Some say add more power and accelerate through it, and then back off very gently down again after stability is found. Others say ease off right away, the power is causing it, try to decelerate out of it. So there is conflict on the right thing to do. You can see a wheelie exit from one wobble in the YT video just above, but backing off is probably safer.

The reality of it is that most victims end up in pain in seconds, and because they “erupt” so suddenly, time to react is infinitismally short.

Your bike don't give you any warnings. That's the scary part. It comes on out of nowhere at high speed, ....... and the bars literally feel like they want to slap the sides of your tank!
I'm not sure I've ever been that scared before, and I twice jumped out of a perfectly good airplane
.”

So at this point I’d like to get back to the economy, the Fed and the price of gold. I won’t take long to connect the dots.

When we have a bull market, number of participants rises, the number of stocks sold is increased, and IPOd, optioned, new issued, margined, and leveraged to death. You might say the power and speed increases dramatically, if you choose to look at it in a certain way.

Up goes the price:

So the power or momentum reaches a certain threshold and if you hit a little bump and things are not perfectly in balance this happens:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K0TA2ZfUQFA

or (please put on mental 3D glasses now!) it can look like this:

Now either you're a pro rider AND lucky, with split second reflexes or you aren't and you're in for a painful hard fall.

Which is it?

Now consider this: when the stock market and economy hit the wall in 2000, leverage was at highs. When the next arc of the speed wobble arrived in 2008-2009, the western /Japanese Central Banks leveraged up printing trillions more, and creating ever more debt. They opened the throttle to power through into the clear above. Decelleration never occurred. We are not out of the wobble loop, though tricking about near it's top. So how good are the CB colleague group at hanging onto a bucking bronco global economy after it gets shaking and until it damps (settles down)? Much remains to be seen on that.

Exercise for the day:

Take the gold price since about 2010 and trial fit the speed wobble corkscrew structure onto the weekly price to see if it fits. I think you'll be surprised.

The challenge is to somehow hang on to gold through the potential "splat phase"! shown in red above in terms of the Dow, and ride it out into the following catapult phase (not shown but I'm sure you can picture it!)

Stay cool folks. The next few weeks are going to be exciting!

 .

Argentus Maximus

The author posts daily commentary on the gold and silver markets in the TFMR forum: The Setup For The Big Trade. More information about the author & his work can be found here: RhythmNPrice.

About the Author

  60 Comments

ag1969
Feb 9, 2014 - 5:35pm

Why global water shortages pose threat of terror and war

From California to the Middle East, huge areas of the world are drying up and a billion people have no access to safe drinking water. US intelligence is warning of the dangers of shrinking resources and experts say the world is 'standing on a precipice'

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/feb/09/global-water-shortag...

And here is my favorite part of the article:

The US security establishment is already warning of potential conflicts – including terror attacks – over water. In a 2012 report, the US director of national intelligence warned that overuse of water – as in India and other countries – was a source of conflict that could potentially compromise US national security.

The report focused on water basins critical to the US security regime – the Nile, Tigris-Euphrates, Mekong, Jordan, Indus, Brahmaputra and Amu Darya. It concluded: "During the next 10 years, many countries important to the United States will experience water problems – shortages, poor water quality, or floods – that will risk instability and state failure, increase regional tensions, and distract them from working with the United States."

Yep!! Just a little side note outside of how much this "threatens" national security, a whole bunch of people could die of hunger and thirst. But hey, who gives a shit about that? As long as they keep working with us!

Bollocks
Feb 9, 2014 - 5:51pm

Whitecastle123

The Honda Rune isn't a motorcycle.

I have scientific proof...

Honda Rune:



la motorcycle...



I rest my case. wink

Whitecastle123 Bollocks
Feb 9, 2014 - 6:02pm

Bollocks

Then what is it ?

Nice BSA.

Bollocks
Feb 9, 2014 - 6:20pm

Whitecastle123

I have no idea what that Honda Rune is. I'm working on it...wink.

Yup, that's a BSA, an A10 (my father had one). You could feel the road on the older bikes. The road spoke to you as you rode. There was a connection to the earth.

Perhaps you know what I mean, as you've said you had bikes over the years?


Feb 9, 2014 - 6:27pm

For the biker goldbugs. An

For the biker goldbugs.

An old family clipping: A photographer caught the moment my grandfather's chances of winning the TT went up in smoke:

He never won the TT, but did pick up French and Spanish Grand Prix wins. That's a hundred years ago last year!


Feb 9, 2014 - 6:27pm

wobbling trailer

The trailer wobble happened to me with a full load moving from Syracuse to Memphis. We just got up to about 65 on the freeway when the "tail started wagging the dog." Every time tried to brake, it got worse. so I had to continually accelerate to stay stable and on the road. The other cars cleared out behind me for 200 yards. My wife was praying nonstop. The kids were asleep. Fortunately, or an answer to prayer, we came to a hill and I kept on the gas a bit, but let the hill slow me down to 40 where I had control again. After I replaced a ruined tire, we drove half way across the US at 4o mph.

To this day, when a heavy trailer starts to wobble the slightest bit, the memories flood back and my heart starts racing.

Patriot Family
Feb 9, 2014 - 7:41pm

I have given up trying to

I have given up trying to predict or time the swings of metals prices with any sense of accuracy. After 5 years of watching closely, I think we've put in a bottom. Wobble in the markets or not, there is a great deal of fear in the markets right now and I don't think retail investors who have recovered their losses will wait to be shafted this time like they were in 2008/2009.

We are very close to hitting our targets in PM holdings. Maybe another 3-4 months and we'll have met our goals. Other preparations - we're close.

We are now looking at building a cash position. Just not sure what currencies make sense. Obviously US dollars since we live here. We're very interested in Nordic currencies, but have more research to do on exchange policy if we ever want to cash it in. I'd be interested in hearing other Turdites' views on which currencies to hold physically in amounts of $5K max per currency.

FleetFeet
Feb 9, 2014 - 8:06pm

Hogs & Hearts

A mechanic was removing a cylinder head from the motor of a Harley motorcycle when he spotted a well-known heart surgeon in his shop.

The surgeon was there, waiting for the service manager to come and take a look at his bike. The mechanic shouted across the garage, "Hey, Doc, can I ask you a question?"

The surgeon, a bit surprised, walked over to the mechanic working on the motorcycle. The mechanic straightened up, wiped his hands on a rag and asked, "Doc, look at this engine. I open its heart, take the valves out, fix 'em, put 'em back in, and when I finish, it works just like new. So how come I get such a small salary and you get the really big bucks, when you and I are doing basically the same work?"

The surgeon paused, smiled, and whispered to the mechanic... "Try doing it with the engine running."
ag1969
Feb 9, 2014 - 8:16pm

AM, that is a great story!

Did you know your grandfather well? I only ask because I never knew one of my grandfathers and the other one I really never got to know that well. But I wish I did, because he was a professional baseball player and a college coach and I bet he had some wonderful stories. 

I found myself wishing I could have read the end of this one. What was that solitary policeman's quick thinking?

Occasnltrvlr
Feb 9, 2014 - 9:03pm

@Patriot Family, Re: Other Currencies

Thank you for asking for my opinion. (Okay, I know it wasn't personal.)

Simon Black (and Gold Dog, now that he knows who Simon Black is) is supportive of the Norwegian krone (as I think you are also making reference to).

The Hong Kong dollar is an interesting alternative, because of the link to the greenback. As Mr. Simon (and others) have pointed out, it is now pegged to the greenback, but, as that greenback stumbles, the SAR of PRC would likely jump ship forthwith and peg elsewhere. This limits downside risk without capping upside appreciation.

There's the people's money of the PRC, the renminbi, which one can hold in a US bank account at the Bank of China in New York, San Francisco (if memory serves), and recently or soon-to-be in Chicago. This is an actual bank account, safe from petty burglary, and FDIC-insured (please, everyone, suppress the laughter, this is a civil forum).

Of course, you likely know of the IQD fervor (read: mania). Confession here: I bought a handful; my version of a lottery ticket.

Then, along those same lines, the Vietnamese Dong. There's lots of interwebz chatter about it, and the wife and I may likely visit, so I bought a handful of that as well.

Mr. JC Collins also subtly points out that central banks are buying the currencies of Canada and Australia; resource wealth supports each in the event of the GCR.

Another perspective to consider: what might the people around you be willing to accept as having any meaningful value? For me, small pieces of gold for gasoline, and another handful of yuan for other expenses: I love eating Chinese.

Patriot Family
Feb 9, 2014 - 9:18pm

We're just across the border from Canada

Due to our proximity to the border, Canadian currency is always a good bet for us. I will look into the PRC Renminbi accounts. I know very little about all of this and am trying to learn quickly. Thanks for the tips!

redwood
Feb 9, 2014 - 9:26pm

JP Morgan Holds Highest

JP Morgan Holds Highest Amount Of Physical Silver In History

https://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/02.14/physical.html

argentus, I think the above may support the splat phase followed by the catapult phase.

Occasnltrvlr
Feb 9, 2014 - 9:35pm

Patriot Family, Thank You

Rereading my recent post, something, which should have been obvious, occurred to me.

(Fictitious dramatic vignette)

[Pressing intercom buzzer on desk]

"Miss Bennett, get triple-A on the telephone and have them put together a Trip-Tik to Toronto. Tell them to send it over immediately, by special courier."

"Right away, Mr. Trvlr."

"And one more thing, Miss Bennett."

"Yes, sir?"

"Have them mark currency-exchange places near the border. And get Mr. Potter on the 'phone for me. Put him through right away-tell him it's urgent."

"Yes, Mr. Trvlr."

Occasnltrvlr
Feb 9, 2014 - 9:40pm
agNau
Feb 9, 2014 - 10:38pm

We of the cross country/hare scrambles/enduro racers........

called it "head shake" ........ always called for more GAS. Generally it was experienced at speed across the fields/fire roads sections intermixed throughout the courses. Suspension setup could resolve most issues, although some were often related to geometry of frame, and not tameable. ********* BDI looking ready to leg down again. ********* David Copperfield would be envious of the coming (very soon) disappearing act of GOLD. It will appear as if overnight.....and availability will dry up. IMO, when supply drys up, and price rises, any selling of physical will never see retail sale. The metals will vanish.....as if into a black hole. Surely anticipated.....the speed of the disappearance/hiding of the metal will I think be surprising......another door is closing/slamming.

Louie
Feb 9, 2014 - 10:48pm

Currencies to hold?

If I lived close to Canada, and might bug out there, then some Canadian dollars might make sense. Otherwise I would hold un USD, outside the banking system, and in small bills ($5s, $10s, and $20s). If markets begin to go crazy, weird and unknown currencies are not going to get you crap. Can you imagine trying to buy ice or a generator with $50k worth of Renembri during the Katrina aftermath?

If you are thinking what you would like to take with you when you bug out, why not 1/10th ounce gold coins or 1 gram gold bars? You can take them to any country in the world and exchange them for local cash.

boomer sooner
Feb 9, 2014 - 11:06pm

PROC Currency

If China has pegged the Juan to the US $ at 6+ to 1, are they not printing 6 trillion Juan to our $1 trillion? That is some serious delution. The only reason I can see to convert some cash to Juan is if you REALLY believe that they may tie to gold in the near future (3-5 years). Past this period, the risk of controls within borders is more than I, personally, am willing to risk.

I have thought about opening an account with Everbank. Being able to hold various currencies in one location has some perks. Only problem, its a bank. Would be interested to see if they would send you actual currency in RMB, Krone, Euro, Rand, ect.

https://www.everbank.com/currencies

Occasnltrvlr
Feb 9, 2014 - 11:25pm

The PBOC Juan

It isn't a literal "peg". Every business day, the PBOC announces the range of variation against the USD that the deem acceptable.

The dilution that is realized by currency holders is akin to the dilution that has been realized in prices by the users of USD: not representative of the true currency dilution. The new US currency is getting "stuck in the banks," so, the PBOC doesn't need to limit the yuan upside very much. They aren't printing at 6 of theirs to 1 of ours.

PRC has a potentially major shadow banking problem. Whether that "problem" is real or not, is the real choice and understanding behind the genuine, actual value of the yuan versus other currencies. The ghost cities will either crumble or be occupied. The manufacturing presence of the PRC is either sustainable, or it is not. These are the real choices vis-a-vis the greenback, in context of the GCR.

Occasnltrvlr
Feb 9, 2014 - 11:39pm

"Can you imagine trying to buy..."

This is something I have tried to imagine. To whom is any currency "weird" or "unknown"? Take a close look at the faces of those who have something to sell.

Buying ice on the eastern shoreline of the US? I'm kind of thinking olive oil.

Buying [lots of things] in [lots of places in the US]? I'm imagining lots of faces reflecting positively on CNY.

Buying gasoline with small pieces of gold? This isn't a "bug-out" issue. It's a "look-at-who-owns-gasoline-retail-stores" no-brainer.

boomer sooner
Feb 10, 2014 - 12:02am

Haven't heard about this

Get ready: the day we fight back against mass surveillance is coming

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/feb/06/nsa-fighting-back-...

boomer sooner
Feb 10, 2014 - 12:48am

Thanks Occasnltrvlr

I wondered how the peg was happening. More of a trade issue than physical paper/digit issue if I'm understanding correctly.

DeaconBenjamin
Feb 10, 2014 - 3:32am

China's gold demand surges, tops 1,000 tonnes for first time

China's gold consumption jumped 41 percent in 2013 to exceed 1,000 tonnes for the first time, an industry body said on Monday, as a sharp slide in prices attracted buyers for jewellery and bullion. The demand surge has helped China become the No. 1 gold consumer and should support prices, which took a hit last year from expectations of a tapering of commodities-friendly economic stimulus by the US Federal Reserve and a drop in demand in the other major buyer India. Gold consumption in China grew to 1,176.40 tonnes last year, with jewellery demand climbing 43 per cent to 716.50 tonnes and bullion demand soaring 57 percent to 375.73 tonnes, the China Gold Association said on its website. Chinese demand hit a record as gold prices fell for the first time in 13 years amid an improving global economy and a rally in equities. Prices tumbled 28 percent in 2013. Data last month showed that China's 2013 gold imports from Hong Kong more than doubled from the previous year to reach a record 1,158.162 tonnes. Data from the industry association also showed that China's gold output in 2013 rose 6.2 percent from the previous year to a record high 428.163 tonnes, making the country the world's biggest producer for a seventh straight year. China's gold consumption figures do not include demand from the central bank, whose gold reserves stand at 33.89 million ounces (1,054 tonnes), unchanged since April 2009, according to the latest figures on the central bank's website. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/chinas-gold-dema...

mac
Feb 10, 2014 - 4:04am

Gold to erupt!

Everyone has loaded up, I think. Time for action. The mafia is long, that is, our banks and their gov't shadow actors. The corruption here may be worse than in China man. American people must deal with past crimes before u can ever come into the light of day.

Building 7 fell down but that doesn't bother some of u much, and u sleep ok? That is insanity. So many of you are plainly just mentally exhausted from all the 'spin' ,lies and murdering?

How to fix your country? I would leave. Like Sinclair is doing.

Max Keiser (bitcoin-maxcoin etc.)is a "useful idiot" for the Banksters, as they want to set up a virtual currency. Max is their stooge.

And going to Canada to get away is of no use. Canada is the usa (and Israel).

All Presidents are made to look old after their first term (spray on white-ish hair)to make us think they actually worry (care) about the country. Ha.


Feb 10, 2014 - 5:19am

@ ag1969:Here it

@ ag1969:

Here it is.

https://i1135.photobucket.com/albums/m638/Phisquared2618/TTRider2b-1.png

https://i1135.photobucket.com/albums/m638/Phisquared2618/TTRider3.png

That was before the war got started.

He emigrated while I was a young child to spend time with the Aussie branch of the family and died there. I received birthday gifts in the post, but never saw him again.

Orange
Feb 10, 2014 - 6:36am

Dr J

I am not sure if there is a video tape, however the theme of the speech revolved around the fact that my parents, who were present, have been married for 60 years. On my daughter's wedding date, (which happens to be my wife and my anniversary) we have been married 32 years and the groom's parents have been married for 36 years.

I added a few lessons learned and difficulties however leading to a determination to pursue it through to its natural conclusion of a deep level of love.

nixy
Feb 10, 2014 - 6:52am

Brilliant analogy. Tank

Brilliant analogy.

Tank slappers....... Usually sorted with some sort of damping. Paper gold / commodity is akin to a motor cycle at high speed with the steering damper removed.

BMW S1000RR Huge Tank Slapper at Knockhill

I thought, after a couple of sentences you were referring to a Mini.....

Gold Dog
Feb 10, 2014 - 8:17am

Instinct over instruction.

My deal with God was if the bike pinwheeling 15 feet in the air over me as I slid down the road starting a rock collection in my skin didn't land on me I wouldn't ride any more. And it didn't and I don't....mostly.

The place where I scraped off my chin still shows up in flash photos.

Your friend,

Dog

BagOfGold
Feb 10, 2014 - 4:10pm

Feb 10, 2014 - 6:43pm

BOG, your posts always put a

BOG, your posts always put a smile on my face. smiley

AM

Mr. Fix
Feb 11, 2014 - 9:19am

Is this a “speed wobble”?

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