Comparative Assessment: The Military Option

190
Thu, Feb 6, 2014 - 12:31am

Any true analysis of near term predictions must take into account the various military options and capabilities of the world's current powers.

Recently, and I apologize in advance for not taking the time to go back and link to it, a post appeared here discussing the Chinese military reality. There was mention of a submarine that sunk, and that the Chinese troops do not seem to have any real ability to endure field conditions or hardships.

I found that fascinating, because I am a former soldier, and nasty, miserable field conditions are just no big deal. We call that camping, and even pay dearly for the privilege.

Thinking on a macro level, though, I began to wonder about the concept of an actual outbreak of a shooting war somewhere in the world.

Going beyond the concept of currency wars, which are playing out in real time right in front of us, what would happen if shooting really started?

This thought lead to a cascade of simultaneous war game scenarios, all of which lead to a most startling question: why is there NO discussion at all about the role of an increasingly capable Chinese fighting force or the denigration of US fighting forces from logistical and personnel decreases or budgetary concerns?

Is this subject so taboo as to warrant NO MOPE at all? Or, have TPTB realized that any mention of the USA military capabilities via a via the Chinese would lead to polarization beyond that which we have now, or worse, to an honest critique of the true dire situation that the failure of western fiat paper has created?

Or, is it just that the Chinese are truly ass backwards when it comes to military capabilities? It is true that they have no professional military. But, the Soviets had their one party system, yet they fielded a most formidable military, even with conscription and less than perfect weapons systems as compared to the Americans.

Or is it something else entirely, like for example, the Chinese play a longer time frame, easily out maneuvering the hasty Americans who are bound by managers on a quarterly return basis, and by politicians focused on a narrow, two year time cycle? If this is the case, then is it not a compelling conclusion that the Chinese are playing a physical gold accumulating, hegemony altering, world commerce dominating game of thrones?

Is this not obvious who has played the best hand, and that the game is revealing itself?

Think about why Bill O'Reilly had Ms. Bartiroma as a guest tonight? Was she advocating something real, or managed? Why is she on TV, right now, advocating continued buying of the USA stocks?

I am more convinced by the day that 2014 is it. The collapse is afoot. I'm buying more gold.

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  190 Comments

Counterfiat ag1969
Feb 7, 2014 - 8:16am

Peking Ducky

Peking over the fence, here is the view from China.

Looks kinda lame - duck

¤
Feb 7, 2014 - 8:19am

Gears of War: Abe Makes Move

Abe Eyes Window for Biggest Military-Rule Change Since WWII By Isabel Reynolds and Takashi Hirokawa 
February 05, 2014 9:44 PM EST Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, pressed by China and seeking to strengthen ties with the U.S., is considering Japan’s biggest change in military engagement rules since World War II.

Barred by its interpretation of a pacifist constitution from protecting other nations’ troops, Japan needs broader deployment abilities, according to Abe, 59. Having increased defense spending two years running and set up a U.S.-style National Security Council, Abe is now seeking to allow Japan to come to the aid of its allies, telling parliament yesterday that “it’s about whether we can exercise this right that every country has.”

China’s escalating challenge to Japan over disputed islands in the East China Sea played into Abe’s plans to strengthen the military, said ruling Liberal Democratic Party lawmaker Katsuei Hirasawa. The initiative, which requires backing by Abe’s coalition partner, faces public opposition and risks further straining ties with China and South Korea that soured in December with Abe’s visit to a war shrine in Tokyo.

“Abe is determined to do this now because otherwise it is very difficult to get support,” said Tsuneo Watanabe, senior fellow at The Tokyo Foundation research center. When regional tensions are low “people don’t see the need for it.”

Secrecy Bill

Abe has shown a willingness to expend political capital on national security. His approval rating dipped below 50 percent after he passed a bill in December to stiffen penalties for leaking state secrets that was favored by the U.S. but opposed by a majority of Japanese. His popularity is back above 55 percent and there are no national elections before 2016, giving him some protection from the fallout of loosening the rules on collective self-defense.

Fifty four percent of Japanese are against the change, according to a poll by Kyodo News on Jan. 25-26. “This is partly to do with postwar pacifist sentiment in Japan, given that Japan was engaged in a very atrocious and damaging war of aggression,” said Koichi Nakano, professor of political science at Sophia University in Tokyo.

Raising Tensions

Such a change would also escalate tensions with China and South Korea, where memories of Japan’s occupation resonate almost 70 years after the end of World War II.

“Japan should build mutual trust with countries in the region, including South Korea, China and Southeast Asian ones, rather than pursue collective security now,” South Korean Vice Defense Minister Baek Seung Joo said, according to a Nov. 6 ministry statement.

Enabling collective self-defense could help ensure the U.S. backs Japan militarily if China asserts its claims over the islands known as Senkaku in Japanese and Diaoyu in Chinese. In November, China set up an air identification zone over part of the East China Sea covering the islands, increasing the risk of confrontation with Japan and the U.S.

China Luck

“What is lucky for the Abe administration is that China set up the ADIZ,” said the LDP’s Hirasawa, who tutored Abe as a child. “That proves that what the Abe administration has been saying is correct. China is taking a stronger and stronger stance.”

Japan was stung by accusations of “checkbook diplomacy” after the country contributed $13 billion and no troops to the U.S.-led 1991 Gulf War, according to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

The government then began changing policy, allowing the first substantial contribution of troops to a United Nations peacekeeping operation in Cambodia in 1992. Still, the 600 troops sent to Iraq in 2004 to support the U.S.-led war were limited to non-combat duties and had to be protected by Dutch and Australian soldiers....(more)

https://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-05/abe-eyes-window-for-biggest...


Feb 7, 2014 - 8:25am

This sounds interesting

This sounds interesting ....

ag1969 wrote:

"Why don't you explain to the whole group what Jeff Bauman, Nurse Nayirah and David Cole have to do with this discussion?

It is so strange to me at this point in time, that I, twice, in the blogosphere, have been asked if I know who Nurse Nayirah was, out of context, at two totally different sites, years apart, by two totally different commentors, but both in a way related to Turd."

ag1969
Feb 7, 2014 - 8:51am

Argentus

CP3 is actually a very intelligent fellow. He believes whole heartedly in the Zionist Conspiracy and is well researched and can support his theory well. I actually agree with him on a lot of stuff. Where my rub comes in is I don't quite grasp what his beef is with Turd.

His comments used to be a mixture of compelling facts tied together with seething hatred for Turd and I guess I am either A) not smart enough to make the connection, which is obviously his contention, or B) Turd is just an honest guy whom I like for all the right reasons.

Nayirah Kuwaiti girl testimony

Feb 7, 2014 - 9:09am

@ag1969 Thanks

@ag1969

Thanks

buzlightening
Feb 7, 2014 - 9:41am

Blythe Masters for president.

The redundancy of continuing ball faced liars, thieves, & outright criminals to head all US departments; + legislative, judicial, and executive positions is ludcrious. Yet, here we are with ali masters and her 40 theives working the cftc for additional fraud and blantant in your face people; continuing theft and deeper fraud coverups. We may wonder how the germans were so stupid as to let hitler gain power right under their noses? Now you know, it just happens, as good people stand bye and do nothing. The ones who would whistle blow and expose, end up hanging themselves in a closet or get run out to russia with love and we'll get you later traitor. (Snowden) Here's to goose steppin with blythe in the cftc and the skunk works freak show continuing round and round. Haven't a clue what it will take to get Americans to take a majority stand? It will happen at some point and many of us may just be sitting in fema camps wondering when we'll be liberated. 

More than a modern hitler coming to power in the USA. lil scamBO in all the muslim brotherhood glory likely is our modern day hitler in power. By their fruits you shall know them. scamBO dripping with tyrannical dictator fruits. Most can't see it or dare to; being stevie wondered down the yellow brick road to one nation under fraud. 

woofwoof
Feb 7, 2014 - 9:55am

RPG's not needed.

If they really want to shut the US down they don’t even need RPGs. Recall the DC sniper and how it shut down the US. How high school football teams were bussed hundreds of miles just to play a game. All this was done with a boy and a single .223.

One kill per night in a random city with a calling card and America would close down … period.

ancientmoney buzlightening
Feb 7, 2014 - 10:08am

@buzlightening re: Blythe for prez . . .

Yeah, their criminality is pretty "in your face."

If the Madoff scandal was just being discovered today, Bernie-boy would be the toast of Washington D.C. and Wall Street--maybe would be current Treasury Secretary instead of Jack Lew. And, his son might be still living.

Well, so far 4 bankers have been suicided, which is a start. But there's a whole lot more to go. Somebody is paying attention.

Unfortunately, it is probably the top of the banker food chain killing off the underlings who know too much . . .

buzlightening
Feb 7, 2014 - 10:18am

Hope & Change at the cftc

Sound money citizens! I smell no bacon burning!

buzlightening
Feb 7, 2014 - 10:25am

Yep! ancientmoney

No whales; global power brokers to be burned upon the alter of fiat debt based paper gone wild. The ones holding the bag of knowing to much get buried or there's a run on Teflon body suits. We'll throw in the Kevlar underwear free!

Mantis
Feb 7, 2014 - 10:27am

Cheerleaders

i gave c3p a hat tip. I reckon its good to challenge your assumptions and watching that video did that. You could say we are all sheep following gold pumpers. However I think the gold pumpers make valid points and the conspiracies are real.

--

On MtGox note withdrawls has caused technical problems!? Hmm they wouldn't have been fractionally lending out more bitcoins than they hold would they ?

hmm ..

silver66
Feb 7, 2014 - 10:28am

Ivars future projections

Ivars interesting outlook, reminded me of a book I read a while ago. I think I may have posted a link here once before

https://www.amazon.ca/The-Next-100-Years-Forecast/dp/0767923057

If you have not read it I think you would enjoy it.

Silver66

ancientmoney
Feb 7, 2014 - 10:28am

Bron Suchecki's latest . . .

https://goldchat.blogspot.com/2014/02/fractional-reserve-bullion-banking-and_7.html

Once again, he defends the bullion bankers and their rehypothecation schemes by saying it is only the current ratio (currently held gold ounces/currently liable to deliver gold ounces) that is important.

He ends his vignette with, "But thinking is a lot harder than just loosely throwing around terms like "fractional", "hypothecation", "leverage" to make it sound like you know what you are talking about and to scare goldbugs with fairy tales of an evil Blythe Masters who will trick you into an unallocated house. Don't get me wrong, fairy tales have a lesson to teach and with unallocated, for example, you do need to know what sort of risks are involved if you are not dealing with a straight up facility like the Perth Mint . . "

Maybe the Perth mint is good on its current ratio--but tell this story to the silver buyers who trusted Morgan Stanley to hold their silver for them. MS took their money, charged them storage and other fees, but had never bought any silver! I'll bet their current ratio was just fine, though . . . 

https://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/07.09/damages.html

SilverRunNW
Feb 7, 2014 - 10:42am

BLS Report

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm

Wow. The labor participation rate seems to be the only "positive" number in the BLS report. Guess that was enough to keep the stock market "enthusiastic". Whatever!

So I guess we've "adjusted" our counting methods again, but until I get a chance to read through the reports, I really don't know how exactly. But by the numbers:

Civilian noninstitutional population increase = +170k
Civilian Labor Force increase = +523K
Unemployment drop (Dec 10,351 - Jan 10,236) = 115K

So somehow, by the way we count, the overall civilian labor force outgrew the civilian uninstitutional population by +353K and sent our Labor Participation Rate up to 63% from 62.8%. Where the hell were these employed people hiding all this time?

A lot more info to drill into here: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Excalibur
Feb 7, 2014 - 10:48am

Bron

Maybe it's just me, but there are some faces and that I just want to slap. Bron has one of those faces. Maybe it's the hair. Nothing personal Bron. Ditto Dimon.

ivars
Feb 7, 2014 - 10:54am

I am going to watch Sochi

I am going to watch Sochi opening ceremony now in 12 minutes.44 heads of state. Will this opportunity be wasted..I hope so. Focus on Sochi must be an attention diversion plot.

From what?

treefrog nixy
Feb 7, 2014 - 10:58am

@nixy

"Yes treefrog......

........"imagine a vw bus with a sunroof. bus drives by any of the refineries between houston and baton rouge on interstate 10. sunroof opens, bad guy (gunner) pops up with a rpg and lays a spread of three incendiary rounds into the refinery".....

and 9-11 took more resources then this scenario ....... so WHY aren't the so-called 'bad guys' launching RPGs into refineries every month??? .......... be a damn sight cheaper than 9-11......."

first, "why?" questions about the behavior of others have always been some of the hardest types of questions.

second, my point is that our vulnerable point (achilles' heel) is our dependence on energy, and thus, its infrastructure. added to that, much of our energy infrastructure is chock full of high energy, easily ignited (detonated) fuel. all that is needed, so to speak, is a spark. 

it wouldn't have to be a vw bus. it could be a rent - a - truck with a hole cut in the roof. mortars would be as effective as rpg's. lots of ways a small group with fairly simple equipment could wreak havoc. 

if it was a major power that wanted to harm us, think how effective it would be to hit the energy infrastructure at a dozen or two points, then launch a more conventional military strike the next day while the power is down and everybody's running around like an anthill that's been stirred.

i think a better question than "why haven't they done it?" would be , "why haven't they done it yet?"

maybe i'm just paranoid, but i'm glad i live on a farm far from any probable target.

ancientmoney
Feb 7, 2014 - 10:58am

Here's the Reuter's article on Morgan Stanley PM fraud

https://uk.reuters.com/article/2007/06/12/morganstanley-suit-idUKN1228014520070612

For those who are interested. 

I didn't realize they ran that scam for over 20 years! (1986 to 2007 when the class-action lawsuit was settled).

How do you calculate Morgan's current ratio during that 20 year time period, Bron?

agNau
Feb 7, 2014 - 11:00am

Continuous war for decades......

.......and visible martial law since the twin towers + #7..... {Scalia, as the longest-serving Justice on the Supreme Court, effectively told the students that the Supreme Court of the United States does not follow the Constitution in times of war. In the 21st century, with its unending "War On Terror", this means that, at any time, a similar decree to Executive Order 9066, the executive order which sent thousands of US citizens to concentration camps, could fall from above.} Justice Scalia quotes Marcus Tullius Cicero, who said that "laws are silent in times of war" (inter arma silent leges).

ancientmoney
Feb 7, 2014 - 11:12am
John Galt Counterfiat
Feb 7, 2014 - 11:30am

Map Turned Upside Down...

The duck map turned upside down looks like one hand giving a small thumbs up in Alaska, with the other hand flipping a giant bird in Argentina.

ancientmoney
Feb 7, 2014 - 11:32am
dgstage
Feb 7, 2014 - 11:33am
dgstage
Feb 7, 2014 - 11:35am
Patrancus
Feb 7, 2014 - 11:40am

something big acoming

local cash for gold store just closed for lack of business activity, coin shop 2 blocks further down the street has seen very little coming in to resell, display cases pretty bare, said yesterday thinking about closing down and bugging out, pawn shop another block down street now takes in what little he can for folks desperate for cash and stashes it for his own retirement, is the physical market getting tight? seems like a store a month is closing around my neighborhood, something big acoming

ag1969
Feb 7, 2014 - 11:44am
Mr. Fix
Feb 7, 2014 - 11:58am

Thanks DG,

Listening now....

ancientmoney
Feb 7, 2014 - 12:06pm

Bundesbank claims little amounts of repatriated gold . . .

is safer!

GATA says BS on that--CBs just say anything to cover their fraudulent a$$es. . .

https://www.gata.org/node/13611

ancientmoney
Feb 7, 2014 - 12:17pm

Alisdair Macleod's latest . . .

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/analysis/post-lehman-era-coming-to-an-end#

He figures the ultra-rich are now needing to reallocate their wealth to gold and silver, as the post-Lehman era ends (QE goes away, rates rise, stocks fail, etc.).

ivars
Feb 7, 2014 - 12:28pm

??? Quote:An airliner with

???

Quote:
An airliner with 110 passengers on board en route from Ukraine was forced Friday by an F-16 military jet to land in Istanbul after a hijack attempt, media reports said.

 A Ukrainian passenger is believed to have demanded that the plane be diverted to Sochi, where the Winter Olympics are taking place, and said there was a bomb on board, the unconfirmed reports said.

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