Comparative Assessment: The Military Option

Thu, Feb 6, 2014 - 12:31am

Any true analysis of near term predictions must take into account the various military options and capabilities of the world's current powers.

Recently, and I apologize in advance for not taking the time to go back and link to it, a post appeared here discussing the Chinese military reality. There was mention of a submarine that sunk, and that the Chinese troops do not seem to have any real ability to endure field conditions or hardships.

I found that fascinating, because I am a former soldier, and nasty, miserable field conditions are just no big deal. We call that camping, and even pay dearly for the privilege.

Thinking on a macro level, though, I began to wonder about the concept of an actual outbreak of a shooting war somewhere in the world.

Going beyond the concept of currency wars, which are playing out in real time right in front of us, what would happen if shooting really started?

This thought lead to a cascade of simultaneous war game scenarios, all of which lead to a most startling question: why is there NO discussion at all about the role of an increasingly capable Chinese fighting force or the denigration of US fighting forces from logistical and personnel decreases or budgetary concerns?

Is this subject so taboo as to warrant NO MOPE at all? Or, have TPTB realized that any mention of the USA military capabilities via a via the Chinese would lead to polarization beyond that which we have now, or worse, to an honest critique of the true dire situation that the failure of western fiat paper has created?

Or, is it just that the Chinese are truly ass backwards when it comes to military capabilities? It is true that they have no professional military. But, the Soviets had their one party system, yet they fielded a most formidable military, even with conscription and less than perfect weapons systems as compared to the Americans.

Or is it something else entirely, like for example, the Chinese play a longer time frame, easily out maneuvering the hasty Americans who are bound by managers on a quarterly return basis, and by politicians focused on a narrow, two year time cycle? If this is the case, then is it not a compelling conclusion that the Chinese are playing a physical gold accumulating, hegemony altering, world commerce dominating game of thrones?

Is this not obvious who has played the best hand, and that the game is revealing itself?

Think about why Bill O'Reilly had Ms. Bartiroma as a guest tonight? Was she advocating something real, or managed? Why is she on TV, right now, advocating continued buying of the USA stocks?

I am more convinced by the day that 2014 is it. The collapse is afoot. I'm buying more gold.

About the Author


Feb 6, 2014 - 12:55am

Packing lead

for the 2nd.

Now 2 read.

Feb 6, 2014 - 12:59am

Cui Bono

Another thing stands out.

Long ago, some very smart posters analyzed the historical responses to hyperinflation. Among the likely outcomes, was war.

I happen to believe that WWII helped the USA recover from suffocating, structural debt. Natural resource supplies were realigned, sovereign boundaries were realigned, a new world order, replete with a new hegemon was installed, and voila, prosperity ensued while the bombed out parts of the world were rebuilt, with credit and interest payments flowing to the banksters the whole time.

Fiat currency of the west has reached a point of collapse, commerce is moving east, while debt is being destroyed by insolvency and default. The west is collapsing, while the east is expanding. Growing pains are everywhere.

The thoughts naturally emerge as to THE KEY QUESTION: who benefits from a shooting war?

Or, taking a different angle, who does not benefit, noting that the last one standing then, by definition, must be the one that benefits.

If war breaks out between the Chinese and Japanese, the USA will intervene. Thus, the Chinese will not engage the Japanese in a shooting war, because even if the Chinese outnumber the Japanese, the Americans are simply better on every respect, save for logistical durability over a long, siege-like duration. This same model of analysis can be applied to the Russians, the Iranians, or any other coalition of forces assembled. Thus, the answer to the key question, is rather simple. The banksters who create fiat, then lend to the sovereigns so they can purchase implements of war are the true beneficiaries of war.

So, look for war to break out if the fiat system begins to shake itself apart. Kind of what is happening right now . . .

Feb 6, 2014 - 1:01am

Hey, Flyinkel

Post a comment already.

Feb 6, 2014 - 1:10am

Stupid dog!


See below.

Feb 6, 2014 - 1:13am

This mug

has never been first before. And is kinda stupid.

1) The Chinese are extraordinarily clever and long range planners. Today Putin re-affirmed his alliance with China, why do you think he did that, to say "If you tangle with yin you get yang?"

The question that burns is "Why would the US allow so much gold to flow East?"

1) US feels with its military superiority and ability to track an ant that every outflow is accounted for and simply put away for later re-claimancy or

2) US leadership is intentionally bankrupting itself for purely greedy elites as a control mechanism for purchasing resources at discount prices or

3) US sells itself as being "at war" with China and Russia but this is to move on from banking corruption gains to even greater war gains, when in fact it is a global cartel simply creating chaos for $$$ and population reduction.

Whatever the choice, a war will not be fought with only traditional weapons, you can go to dots for all those "crazy conspiracies" of how it will play out. Could China win by never even firing a shot? The greatest danger I see is the US population never even understanding there is a war going on in their own backyard right now. (hint it's not Russia and it's not China)

More Chinese weapons, do they need them? They have been pretty effective so far.

"Going to war" with China and/or Russia is a diversionary tactic to rally US citizens against a foreign enemy and cause them to willingly support and accept unconstitutional leaders because we are "at war". Perhaps they are our enemy, but not really (see #3)

Feb 6, 2014 - 1:27am

@flyinkel - congrats on number 1

Thanks for the comment. Let me address it a bit.

Gold is flowing from west to east. This cannot reasonably be disputed.

So, there are possibilities as to whether this gold is flowing unknowingly, inadvertently, by choice, or by force.

I reject out of hand that gold is flowing east unknowingly, or inadvertently.

This leaves two possibilities: by choice, or by force, or some combination of the two.

This is the fascinating part of the thought experiment. If, as I suspect, the Chinese have simply played a better position, then gold is flowing by choice, because those western elites had no other choice. That is, the fiat scheme could have come crashing down all at once by the Chinese refusing to buy treasuries, while dumping their bonds en masse. But this would have meant the Chinese would take heavy losses themselves, and risk revolt from the populace. So, no, mass dumping of western paper was not an option.

The Chinese almost assuredly told the Oil producing countries that China would be paying for oil priced in something other than USA frn's, which both shocked and scared the oil producers, which in turn caused the Chinese to guarantee the oil producers' security by a Chinese/Russian deal. So, China gains energy resources, Russia gains a trading partner and ally in the realignment, while the oil producers care not one bit because they have a ready customer that is proving security. The loser is the USA.

So, the oil producers bought into the new scenario. China embarked on a massive gold buying spree, aided by the corrupt JPM on the paper markets, now the game is obviously afoot, with the stakes high but the outcome certain.

Checkmate, right?

Feb 6, 2014 - 2:37am

Now here's a meaty topic...

Excellent pick CaliLaw!

My own thoughts on this are in part in some earlier posts:

a) oil producing nations are quietly, ever-so-gradually shifting towards stage left, some while pretending to be in conflict with Russia and/or Iran (the latter being a clear major/primary oil source for China)

b) grand bargain was struck re: Syria/Iran. Why? How? By whom, exactly, and for what terms? Is it merely to tamp down 'hot' conflict for the time being, to save it for later? Is it a true move toward detente? Could it be the US is being allowed a graceful, relatively face-saving exit from hegemony (see: gold flowing East, loosening of absolute dominion over Middle East, drifting away of erstwhile 'sphere of direct influence' S. American countries, cooling of relations w/ Germany and even the UK)?

c) I am becoming more and more convinced that the 'tension' and 'animosity' between the USSR and China throughout all those decades was basically a good cop/bad cop routine. I know for a fact that the power structures and dominant leadership class of the 'previous era' of the USSR was transplanted pretty much intact into the current elite throughout the entire former USSR domain of influence. Whether as politicians, oligarchs or simple outright mob bosses, they are controlled/ruled over by the same caste. Putin's role is to finish the re-consolidation of the old-guard after the (unforeseen? necessary? planned?) implosion and 'chaos' of the early post-Glasnost years. 'The shepherd is working with the sheepdog' example is not quite apt, it's more like two baboons alternating between offering food to and fighting with the 800-lb gorilla.

Russia is seeking to (re)establish hegemony over Eurasia, while China lays claim to E. Asia, Pacific and Africa.

It's a giant game of Risk, and since no armies have crossed borders, the US can continue to pretend that the entire global map is red-white-and-blue, even if that is not strictly speaking the case.

d) Hot war is ONLY in the interests of banksters and/or genocidal maniacs. Even if ALL military objectives in a hypothetical US attack on either large power were to succeed, even without using newks, what then? Aside from causing economic damage and human suffering, how would it advance American interests?

This reminds me of an old joke about the fifites:

A Chinese party functionary sprints to Chairman Mao's office. Out of breath, he blurts out the news:

- Honorable Comrade, the Red Army has breached our northern border! The troops number at least one million! They now control the major border town of 100,000 residents!

- Very well, you may go.

- But Chairman Mao, the Red Army...

- Silence! Bring me an update tomorrow.

The next day the apparatchik returns:

- Chairman, the Red Army has advanced further, and now controls the entire county of 1 million residents! What shall we do?

- Nothing. Bring me a report tomorrow.

The functionary knows better than to argue, and leaves in silence. The next day he is back:

- Honorable magnificent leader, the Red Army has taken the entire province and has set up their headquarters in the provincial capital. The province has over 100M people! What shall we do???

- Bring me the hotline.

Picking up the phone, the Chairman dials Moscow.

- Comrade Stalin? Your army is surrounded, you are outnumbered by Chinese Communists at a factor of 100 to 1. I am ready to discuss the terms of your surrender.

Feb 6, 2014 - 3:01am


Remembering we're the one who put the king out there naked. After all, we're the ones that did all the spending. It was our choice, any buyers of treasuries just became the victims x2 (a devalued dollar, decreases in i rates). I find it hard to logically blame any other country for wanting another system. We earned our dethroning of the reserve currency of the world, plain and simple. Would you want to be paid back in a devalued dollar? Perhaps when the US goes looking for "the enemy", we should look in the mirror. I am sick of all this blame balony.

Thanks for the topic, it is a great one. I just sicken when I hear overseas how we are perceived, I sicken because not only did we fail to "walk the chalk", we jumped off the line and like a crazed glutton the elite fed at the trough through both mouth and anus.

(Don't lecture me on how much more valuable your treasuries become if interest rates go down. If your country has to buy US treasuries for BOP you would rather have 3% than .5 of an already devalued dollar). Cranky dog.

Feb 6, 2014 - 3:58am

Here is finally quite clear

Here is finally quite clear chart where DOW ( and S&P) approximately is now- of course it can be bit off in time - i would move the green line more to the right meaning a spike up may happen today- tomorrow- but fall shall restart already Monday Tuesday. So i am staying short with quite large stop. Hope large enough not to be stopped out at spike.

Feb 6, 2014 - 4:17am

US military gonna win anything....

China started their "industrialization' seriously just 60 years ago. They stared with the newest technology, while the west had lots of the old technology.

China has a head start, cuz they started with the "new".

Now a orbiting laser nuke destroyer (or somesuch) may just pick off all the yankee crap flying at them. Go figure.

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

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