The Critical Importance of 1260 and 20.50

Wed, Feb 5, 2014 - 11:58am

It's all there for everyone to see and it will likely come down to Friday's BLSBS for resolution.

Just a quick post this morning. Actually I wasn't planning to post anything before the podcast but the price action post-ADP demanded it. I've still got more snow to shovel and I haven't showered since Monday. Ick.

This is just pathetic, frankly. CNBS and other bubblehead commentators will lament gold's "lack of follow-through". Bullshit. Gold followed-through just fine. The problem is The Banks. They are intent upon keeping price down and under $1260 for as long as possible. Not only that, it is absolutely vital to the shorts that price be held below the 100-day moving average, too, currently near $1274 in the Apr14 contract.

When ADP was "disappointing" today (, price shot higher and actually tapped the 100-day. THIS COULD NOT BE ALLOWED TO STAND. The Forces of Darkness sprung into action, with the intention of beating gold back and living to fight another day. All else be damned. The fundos. The news. The global "safety trade". "Screw 'em", said The Banks. "We must try to restrain price today in the hopes that Friday's BLSBS will be stronger and we can keep price down even longer for once price exceeds $1260, $1280 and the 100-day MA, it will be clear for all to see that The Bottom is in."

On the bright side, silver finally broke through $19.50 AND it's 50-day MA. Additionally, it has actually found support from the 50-day on a retest. This is very encouraging but it was only allowed because silver is still well short of breaking out and through it's major resistance level of $20.50.

And so here's where we stand as we barrel toward Friday. You can plainly see that the pressure is significantly building against The Bad Guys at $1260. Another lousy BLSBS and the dam will break. A bad BLSBS will also shove silver back toward the top of it's range, too. Maybe even through it.

But, again, I can't stress enough how vital and important it is to the shorts to keep prices below these lines. If they are broken and price accelerates away from $1280 and toward $21, it will be abundantly clear and undeniable to any fair observer that THE BOTTOMS are in. Shorts will be squeezed and forced to cover and specs will actually begin to flip LONG. The Banks want to avoid this for as long as possible.

We joke all the time about how the bubblehead hypemeisters of CNBS et al like to spin each month's BLSBS as the "most important data point of all time". For us, this Friday really will be important. Be ready.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Feb 5, 2014 - 2:20pm


no help from me--I was ok until my speech-even though I kind of roasted my son in law-which the humor helped

ie--"I knew things were different when my daughter called me to say she had a flat tire and needed help. One minute later she called back and said to stay home; David was coming over to help"


"David was staying with us when we had a huge storm and we found we had a leak in the attic. I tried to go up in the attic off the ladder but I did not have the upper body strength. I came down to explain and there was David, already up in the attic. I knew things had changed"

"then David came down and my wife and daughter hugged David for his actions while I stood by looking like an idiot" things changed.

throw some humor into it and have fun-its one of the best days of your life. I wrote everything out. And had focal points to our guests. The band helped as after the first two quips, they did a drum roll after each following one.

the real tears came when after the guests left, I was presented with the final invoice-most had already been paid-but it was teh last minute extras and ot for the band. It was over so fast I thought.

My wife did get pissed during the evening when I turned to her and said " do you know how many gold coins we could have bought?"

Feb 5, 2014 - 2:24pm


Take it from a speechwriter. You are not in deep shit, you are in the zone that professional speakers try to fake to get a response.

Lose it, be emotional, then compose yourself and say what you planned to say.

Your audience & family will eat it up! There won't be a dry eye in the house.

Practice will not help unless you wish to lose your humanity. Just work on what you do want to say, funny stories, or whatever.

Feb 5, 2014 - 2:24pm


Picture Jaime dimon , Janet yellen , Ben bernanke , sitting in the front row in there underwear!

Oh sorry this was for orange !

Feb 5, 2014 - 2:32pm


As your daughter and soon to be son in law are no strangers to committing people to institutions, its important that they realize that marriage is the longest sentence to an institution they could ever receive!

Quite often I've asked myself whether a life sentence for murder 1, would be a shorter and less harsh sentence than a life with my wife! With good behaviour, atleast I would be out of jail in possible 11 to 15 with murder? Marriage....thats serious time.

Speak from the heart, wish them well, drink a little too much, dance too hard, love too much. A recipe for a perfect wedding.

.....I know i'm too far down the rabbit hole when metals trading involves discussing wedding speeches.

Burt Reynolds
Feb 5, 2014 - 2:32pm


No help here except the speech was easier than the walk down the aisle. My daughter and I both cried like babies going down the aisle. Maybe getting that out helped and by the time I got to the speech it was already a done deal!

Feb 5, 2014 - 2:40pm


Weddings are very emotional times...

Even the cake will be in tiers.

I was a best-man once. I got a lot of good material from other best-men.

Get on youtube and look up "Best best-man speech"

Obviously tweak stuff to your own experiences.

Other than that - no advice on being able to keep it together.

Good luck and keep us in the loop

Feb 5, 2014 - 2:42pm

Dr. J

Very good point, I am truly humble and honest to a fault. I am direct and like the truth. I have turned around several companies and had the support of employees throughout. It takes a team, and so long as you have their backing one will succeed.

Sincerity, honesty, morality will always win the day.

I just have to handle the emotional side.

Feb 5, 2014 - 2:50pm

Global warming

For all those of you shovelling the global warming from your driveway and sidewalk, increased snowfall was predicted years ago. When that supermoist air, due to increased ocean temperatures, hits that Canadian air then naturally there will be more snow than previously.

From the perspective of cities like Montreal, which have excellent snow removal facillities, what we see in places like Philadelphia is pathetic. Montreal typically uses truck size snowblowers and a conga line of dump trucks to take the snow away. Compare that with a blade stuck on a truck.

Feb 5, 2014 - 2:51pm

By the way

No jokes allowed about rich lawyers. My daughter has put away rapist, thieves, murderers etc.

She enjoys the work, however the pay doesn't cover the costs of typical student loans, which gratefully she does not have.

Thanks to everybody for the advice.

Feb 5, 2014 - 2:53pm

RE;By the way

Any bankers?

Subscribe or login to read all comments.


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 11/18

11/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perms
11/20 2:00 ET October FOMC minutes
11/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
11/22 9:45 ET Markit November Flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 11/11

11/12 Three Fed Goon speeches
11/13 8:30 ET CPI
11/13 11:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/14 8:30 ET PPI
11/14 Four Fed Goon speeches
11/14 10:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
11/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/4

11/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
11/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
11/6 Speeches by Goons Williams, Harker and Evans
11/8 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
11/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 10/28

10/30 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 2:00 ET FOMC fedlines
10/30 2:30 ET CGP presser
10/31 8:30 ET Personal Income & Spending
10/31 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/1 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
1/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Recent Comments

by Blackwatersailor, 48 min 28 sec ago
by SteveW, 5 hours 45 min ago

Forum Discussion

by Scarecrow, 11 sec ago
by Green Lantern, 2 min 40 sec ago
by Solsson, 9 min ago
by Green Lantern, 11 min 7 sec ago