The Critical Importance of 1260 and 20.50

Wed, Feb 5, 2014 - 11:58am

It's all there for everyone to see and it will likely come down to Friday's BLSBS for resolution.

Just a quick post this morning. Actually I wasn't planning to post anything before the podcast but the price action post-ADP demanded it. I've still got more snow to shovel and I haven't showered since Monday. Ick.

This is just pathetic, frankly. CNBS and other bubblehead commentators will lament gold's "lack of follow-through". Bullshit. Gold followed-through just fine. The problem is The Banks. They are intent upon keeping price down and under $1260 for as long as possible. Not only that, it is absolutely vital to the shorts that price be held below the 100-day moving average, too, currently near $1274 in the Apr14 contract.

When ADP was "disappointing" today (, price shot higher and actually tapped the 100-day. THIS COULD NOT BE ALLOWED TO STAND. The Forces of Darkness sprung into action, with the intention of beating gold back and living to fight another day. All else be damned. The fundos. The news. The global "safety trade". "Screw 'em", said The Banks. "We must try to restrain price today in the hopes that Friday's BLSBS will be stronger and we can keep price down even longer for once price exceeds $1260, $1280 and the 100-day MA, it will be clear for all to see that The Bottom is in."

On the bright side, silver finally broke through $19.50 AND it's 50-day MA. Additionally, it has actually found support from the 50-day on a retest. This is very encouraging but it was only allowed because silver is still well short of breaking out and through it's major resistance level of $20.50.

And so here's where we stand as we barrel toward Friday. You can plainly see that the pressure is significantly building against The Bad Guys at $1260. Another lousy BLSBS and the dam will break. A bad BLSBS will also shove silver back toward the top of it's range, too. Maybe even through it.

But, again, I can't stress enough how vital and important it is to the shorts to keep prices below these lines. If they are broken and price accelerates away from $1280 and toward $21, it will be abundantly clear and undeniable to any fair observer that THE BOTTOMS are in. Shorts will be squeezed and forced to cover and specs will actually begin to flip LONG. The Banks want to avoid this for as long as possible.

We joke all the time about how the bubblehead hypemeisters of CNBS et al like to spin each month's BLSBS as the "most important data point of all time". For us, this Friday really will be important. Be ready.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Feb 6, 2014 - 1:22am

Global warming

-8F on my drive to work, -20F on my drive home... Hope this global warming ends soon.

Feb 6, 2014 - 1:08am
Feb 5, 2014 - 11:35pm

it's Time!

Is this THE crash that is playing out in front of us? There is a view that the Fed and PPT will boost markets now, to avoid the crash. Maybe true, it would seem a logical act in keeping with the last 10-15 years (longer?).

But it is world wide now and usd/jpy is just too flawed to 'fix' the world. And China can buy tons of JGB's and cause the western world alot of trouble now.

The fantasy bull rise since september was just that - a mirage that has almost vanished.

Short the market. That is my action!

Feb 5, 2014 - 10:24pm

Argentine Banking System Archives Destroyed By Deadly Fire

Zerohedge ....The cause of the fire wasn’t immediately clear - though we suggest smelling Fernandez' hands...

While we are sure it is a very sad coincidence, on the day when Argentina decrees limits on the FX positions banks can hold and the Argentine Central Bank's reserves accounting is questioned publically, a massive fire - killing 9 people - has destroyed a warehouse archiving banking system documents. As The Washington Post reports, the fire at the Iron Mountain warehouse (which purportedly had multiple protections against fire, including advanced systems that can detect and quench flames without damaging important documents) took hours to control and the sprawling building appeared to be ruined. The cause of the fire wasn’t immediately clear - though we suggest smelling Fernandez' hands...

Feb 5, 2014 - 9:43pm

I am off to bed

I have a few busy days ahead of me. Of course emotional as well. Hopefully the younger Turdites will appreciate some of the wisdom offered here this evening.

As a side note, I heard an older neighbor has stage four terminal lung cancer and is not expected to live 1-2 years.

I will be giving him some of my MMS (query mms Jim Humble) tomorrow and he will order some to complete the treatment.

I will let you know if it cures him, however you may remember, I gave it to my elderly father who was prescribed stage 4 prostate cancer drugs. The doctors told him he does not need to take the cancer medication anymore.

Young Turdites, don't learn from MSM, learn from direct information.

Turdville - let's role

For those interested, here is one link I sent for background information.

Feb 5, 2014 - 8:24pm

Even a bad system can have good individuals


Sir, I agree with you more than I differ with you on the general . . . err . . . quality (or lack thereof) in the judicial system today.

However, if you believe that makes it impossible for any particular individual to be decent and honorable if they hold one of those jobs, I respectfully disagree. I know a couple lawyers and one cop, and I'd be happy to vouch for their personal integrity.

I'm not defending the judicial system or law enforcment. I'm saying that slandering a **particular individual** when you know nothing about them except that they're a lawyer/judge/police officer is inappropriate, IMHO. And as best I can tell, I don't believe your comment addresses that point at all.

Very Respectfully,


P.S. I could see condemning someone if their profession was a crack dealer, perhaps. But not just because they have a role related to law enforcement.

Key Economic Events Week of 7/6

7/6 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
7/6 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
7/7 10:00 ET Job openings
7/9 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
7/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
7/10 8:30 ET PPI for June

Feb 5, 2014 - 6:21pm

Japanese markets

Hey turd

Maybe a word or two about the huge Japanese market collapse today would be in order. This could become contagion very easily don't you think? Further, don't you think the govt is going to order their employees at the BLS to count a bit funny for Friday?

Feb 5, 2014 - 5:45pm

Validity of patents.

I wont try to argue this issue, but I don't believe its straight forward on whether patents help or hurt society.

Anyhoo. Ill try and stear things back to silver now... I bought a few TFMR silver rounds last week. A friend and I were heavy into SLV options back before May 1, 2011 and did very well. We used to tune into Turd constantly and I sent him a TFMR round as a memento. I'm beginning to tip-toe back into trading over the last month.

I want to publicly thank Turd for the product he provides. I download the podcast before starting my drive home each night and it increases my happiness to listen to the podcasts.

Thank you Turd.



Feb 5, 2014 - 5:20pm


I have a daughter who is an atty and works for patent office, they deal with good attys on the outside. They have work measurement. Ie cases handled for quantuty and cases overturned for quality. If you grant a patent thats overturned thats not good, and if you do not grant one that an appeal overturns your decision that not goid so you have to find the right sweetspot which means you have to know what you are doing.

so working for the govt is not necessarily a bad thing. The patent office is actually a profit center for govt and has minimal bs and waste.

Feb 5, 2014 - 5:03pm

My take on the ethics of prosecutors.


Not to speak for Stockoneder, but to speak for myself. I'd like to speak on the philosophical nature of prosecutors. I will assume a prosecutor is working for the state. I will also assume the judge is working for the state. I will assume that most witnesses (police/etc) called by a prosecutor are working for the state. I will assume the public defender is a state employee. I will assume a private defense attorney will have taken an oath to the state in the process of obtaining a license to practice. Based on these assumptions, I believe the judicial system falls into more of a racketeering organization than anything else. Maybe you can dispute some of the assumptions or draw a different conclusion than me. I have ideas about how this system can be made more ethical, but that is not a likely outcome. People don't give up racketeering voluntarily, especially the state. Try asking a judge if he/she is employed by the plaintiff and see what happens.

Check this: ​



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Key Economic Events Week of 7/6

7/6 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
7/6 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
7/7 10:00 ET Job openings
7/9 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
7/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
7/10 8:30 ET PPI for June

Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
7/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 6/22

6/22 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
6/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
6/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for June
6/23 10:00 ET New home sales
6/25 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
6/26 8:30 ET Core inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 6/15

6/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/16 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/16 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US Senate
6/16 4:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia speech
6/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
6/17 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US House
6/18 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
6/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/19 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
6/19 1:00 pm ET CGP and Mester conference

Key Economic Events Week of 6/8

6/9 10:00 ET Job openings
6/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
6/10 8:30 ET CPI for May
6/10 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/10 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
6/11 8:30 ET PPI for May
6/12 8:30 ET Import price index
6/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/25

5/26 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
5/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/27 2:00 ET Fed Beige Book
5/28 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
5/29 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/11 12:30 ET Goon Evans speech
5/12 8:30 ET CPI
5/12 9:00 ET Goon Kashnkari speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Quarles speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Harker speech
5/12 5:00 ET Goon Mester speech
5/13 8:30 ET PPI
5/13 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
5/14 6:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State index
5/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

5/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/5 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
5/5 10:00 ET ISM Sevrice PMI
5/6 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/7 8:30 ET Productivity
5/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 4/27

4/28 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
4/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
4/29 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess
4/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
4/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
4/30 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
5/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

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