The Critical Importance of 1260 and 20.50

Wed, Feb 5, 2014 - 11:58am

It's all there for everyone to see and it will likely come down to Friday's BLSBS for resolution.

Just a quick post this morning. Actually I wasn't planning to post anything before the podcast but the price action post-ADP demanded it. I've still got more snow to shovel and I haven't showered since Monday. Ick.

This is just pathetic, frankly. CNBS and other bubblehead commentators will lament gold's "lack of follow-through". Bullshit. Gold followed-through just fine. The problem is The Banks. They are intent upon keeping price down and under $1260 for as long as possible. Not only that, it is absolutely vital to the shorts that price be held below the 100-day moving average, too, currently near $1274 in the Apr14 contract.

When ADP was "disappointing" today (, price shot higher and actually tapped the 100-day. THIS COULD NOT BE ALLOWED TO STAND. The Forces of Darkness sprung into action, with the intention of beating gold back and living to fight another day. All else be damned. The fundos. The news. The global "safety trade". "Screw 'em", said The Banks. "We must try to restrain price today in the hopes that Friday's BLSBS will be stronger and we can keep price down even longer for once price exceeds $1260, $1280 and the 100-day MA, it will be clear for all to see that The Bottom is in."

On the bright side, silver finally broke through $19.50 AND it's 50-day MA. Additionally, it has actually found support from the 50-day on a retest. This is very encouraging but it was only allowed because silver is still well short of breaking out and through it's major resistance level of $20.50.

And so here's where we stand as we barrel toward Friday. You can plainly see that the pressure is significantly building against The Bad Guys at $1260. Another lousy BLSBS and the dam will break. A bad BLSBS will also shove silver back toward the top of it's range, too. Maybe even through it.

But, again, I can't stress enough how vital and important it is to the shorts to keep prices below these lines. If they are broken and price accelerates away from $1280 and toward $21, it will be abundantly clear and undeniable to any fair observer that THE BOTTOMS are in. Shorts will be squeezed and forced to cover and specs will actually begin to flip LONG. The Banks want to avoid this for as long as possible.

We joke all the time about how the bubblehead hypemeisters of CNBS et al like to spin each month's BLSBS as the "most important data point of all time". For us, this Friday really will be important. Be ready.


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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


· Feb 5, 2014 - 11:59am

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Eppes · Feb 5, 2014 - 11:59am



s1lverbullet · Feb 5, 2014 - 12:15pm



Dingo · Feb 5, 2014 - 12:20pm

When gold will be measured RMB/gram?

When there's nothing left in the London vaults of course! 1280 RMB per gram will be a bargain.

47 Protons · Feb 5, 2014 - 12:53pm

For the Fifth time...

Oh wait... actually for the first time... but, I'm fifth.

this morning, when I woke up (late), I peaked at the kitco 3 day gold chart, and my first thought was:

This looks digital, like a stair-step digital pattern. I was looking at basically your first chart! Guess that's what an algo world looks like! :-\


rl999 · Feb 5, 2014 - 1:01pm

Unemployment # on Friday BLSBS

We expect that the unemployment number released on friday will be significantly lower due to the 1 million long term unemployed people disappearing from the roles.

The congress critters are still talking about some sort of extension of those benefits.

If we get the number we expect, and a decrease to the range of 6.3-5.9%, what reaction do we expect? Is good news good news again? It seems like that switch has been made. Gold has spiked recently on bad economic news and the markets have dipped.

A large drop in the unemployment # would be positive. Is this setting us up for a friday smash?

If/when benefits are reauthorized will that cause those 1.3 million to immediately be recounted as unemployed leading to a spike back up to ~6.7%?

rl999 · Feb 5, 2014 - 1:16pm

Silver medical breakthrough

Using silver nanoparticles, researchers create cream that avoids the transmission of HIV

Red Ice Creations

After discovering that silver nanoparticles are capable of blocking the entry of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) into the organism, a group of researchers from the University of Texas, in collaboration with Humberto Lara Villegas, specialist in nanoparticles and virology from the University of Monterrey, Mexico (UDEM), created a vaginal cream to control the transmition of the virus.


Using silver nanoparticles, researchers create cream that avoids the transmition of HIV

Above: Silver nanoparticles.

For those having c&p issues I switched to Firefox and everything is working fine, even with the security settings set higher than I had them using IE. No random deletion issues either.

SteveW · Feb 5, 2014 - 1:17pm

What time are the ADP numbers released?

I noticed the spike started at 8:05, so was there front running or a delay on an 8:00 release?

Gold Dog · Feb 5, 2014 - 1:39pm

She was only a nine...

...but I liked her anyway!


Orange · Feb 5, 2014 - 2:04pm

Only a nine

Wow, I am in deep shit. My daughter (28) and certainly a 10 as well as being a prosecutor is marrying another lawyer.

That's all fine, but every time I practice giving a speech, I lose it and become teary eyed. Same thing happened when I practice answering who is giving away the bride.

I lose it every time.

Any advice? Practice, practice isn't working. I know I am in deep shit.

Mickey · Feb 5, 2014 - 2:20pm


no help from me--I was ok until my speech-even though I kind of roasted my son in law-which the humor helped

ie--"I knew things were different when my daughter called me to say she had a flat tire and needed help. One minute later she called back and said to stay home; David was coming over to help"


"David was staying with us when we had a huge storm and we found we had a leak in the attic. I tried to go up in the attic off the ladder but I did not have the upper body strength. I came down to explain and there was David, already up in the attic. I knew things had changed"

"then David came down and my wife and daughter hugged David for his actions while I stood by looking like an idiot" things changed.

throw some humor into it and have fun-its one of the best days of your life. I wrote everything out. And had focal points to our guests. The band helped as after the first two quips, they did a drum roll after each following one.

the real tears came when after the guests left, I was presented with the final invoice-most had already been paid-but it was teh last minute extras and ot for the band. It was over so fast I thought.

My wife did get pissed during the evening when I turned to her and said " do you know how many gold coins we could have bought?"

· Feb 5, 2014 - 2:24pm


Take it from a speechwriter. You are not in deep shit, you are in the zone that professional speakers try to fake to get a response.

Lose it, be emotional, then compose yourself and say what you planned to say.

Your audience & family will eat it up! There won't be a dry eye in the house.

Practice will not help unless you wish to lose your humanity. Just work on what you do want to say, funny stories, or whatever.

Gamble · Feb 5, 2014 - 2:24pm


Picture Jaime dimon , Janet yellen , Ben bernanke , sitting in the front row in there underwear! 

Oh sorry this was for orange !

Maestro · Feb 5, 2014 - 2:32pm


As your daughter and soon to be son in law are no strangers to committing people to institutions, its important that they realize that marriage is the longest sentence to an institution they could ever receive!

Quite often I've asked myself whether a life sentence for murder 1, would be a shorter and less harsh sentence than a life with my wife! With good behaviour, atleast I would be out of jail in possible 11 to 15 with murder? Marriage....thats serious time.

Speak from the heart, wish them well, drink a little too much, dance too hard, love too much. A recipe for a perfect wedding.

.....I know i'm too far down the rabbit hole when metals trading involves discussing wedding speeches. 

Burt Reynolds · Feb 5, 2014 - 2:32pm


No help here except the speech was easier than the walk down the aisle. My daughter and I both cried like babies going down the aisle. Maybe getting that out helped and by the time I got to the speech it was already a done deal!

Terp · Feb 5, 2014 - 2:40pm


Weddings are very emotional times...

Even the cake will be in tiers.

I was a best-man once. I got a lot of good material from other best-men.

Get on youtube and look up "Best best-man speech"

Obviously tweak stuff to your own experiences.

Other than that - no advice on being able to keep it together.

Good luck and keep us in the loop

Orange · Feb 5, 2014 - 2:42pm

Dr. J

Very good point, I am truly humble and honest to a fault. I am direct and like the truth. I have turned around several companies and had the support of employees throughout. It takes a team, and so long as you have their backing one will succeed. 

Sincerity, honesty, morality will always win the day.

I just have to handle the emotional side.

SteveW · Feb 5, 2014 - 2:50pm

Global warming

For all those of you shovelling the global warming from your driveway and sidewalk, increased snowfall was predicted years ago. When that supermoist air, due to increased ocean temperatures, hits that Canadian air then naturally there will be more snow than previously.

From the perspective of cities like Montreal, which have excellent snow removal facillities, what we see in places like Philadelphia is pathetic. Montreal typically uses truck size snowblowers and a conga line of dump trucks to take the snow away. Compare that with a blade stuck on a truck.

Orange · Feb 5, 2014 - 2:51pm

By the way

No jokes allowed about rich lawyers. My daughter has put away rapist, thieves, murderers etc. 

She enjoys the work, however the pay doesn't cover the costs of typical student loans, which gratefully she does not have. 

Thanks to everybody for the advice.

tyberious · Feb 5, 2014 - 2:53pm

RE;By the way

Any bankers?

Orange · Feb 5, 2014 - 2:57pm


I only wish! However Helicopter Ben does come from SC. 

Perhaps being put away for printing ponzi money.

benque · Feb 5, 2014 - 2:58pm

Orange: Well, with that attitude...

You cannot fail to SUCCEED!!!

Wishing you much happiness on such a very special occasion, and of course, best wishes to the bride and groom!

Maybe in a few short years, I'll be asking you for some tips.

Mickey · Feb 5, 2014 - 3:01pm


I was careful not to try to get too funny as sometimes you can lay an egg.

however, my son in law owns his own mfg company and to loosen up he does "improve" on the side. He did a monologue that Jay Leno would be proud of-had something for everybody and knew how to deliver it.

So remember the kids are the main event-the parents are the warm up act.

my wife talked abut how thing shave changed since we were married. ie--now you can take pictures and movies on phones and upload to facebook and everything is immediately available for the world to see--40 years ago we had a cheap video and it comes on disc and its artsy fartsy.

Or, 40 years ago we had cigarettes on the tables. Today we have trail mix.

it was fun

stockoneder Orange · Feb 5, 2014 - 3:07pm

prosecutor daughter

I would disown my daughters if they ever worked for the government. And working as a prosecutor is one of the most evil jobs in a completely evil organization. She decides who the state will rob, kidnap, throw in a cage and even murder. The state is the biggest thief and murderer in the world!

benque · Feb 5, 2014 - 3:13pm

Gee willikers stockoneder

You can take the foil hat off at weddings you know.

SilverRunNW · Feb 5, 2014 - 3:19pm

Nice Post Turd

Thanks for the unexpected post and analysis!

What can be said about the volume, 20,817 at 07:15CST? Hedgies reacting to ADP numbers or bullion banks trying to run the shorts? Nice to see the volume on the upside, but the substantial volume induced price bleed-off really sucks.

What if the roles have REVERSED? What if it's the bullion banks trying to get the price up so they stop the drain of gold, but "chinese" backed entities (or others) are smashing it back down?

· Feb 5, 2014 - 3:25pm

Gold Dog, you scared me...

I thought I read, "She was only nine but I liked her anyway..." And then all this talk of weddings... 

I read that wrong: "She was only a nine..."

Hmmm, ninth post. Whew, I feel better now!


¤ · Feb 5, 2014 - 3:26pm


...we soon bust through $1280 & $21 then continue to creep up towards $1330 & $22.50 and then hold those levels and form some support

My guess would be that if we don't reach $1320-ish & $22-ish within 3-4 months that we'll retest $1180 and $18.50 and break them. crying By how much or how long is anyone's guess.enlightened

I'm hoping $1280 & $21 get crushed soon and convincingly taken out yes but I'm leaning towards the latter of $1180/18.50 being retested one more time. no

Orange · Feb 5, 2014 - 3:27pm


You may have a point to some degree, as it is well documented that some people are innocent in prison or wrongly convicted.

However, talk to the parents of the raped daughter. Perhaps you could envision a six year old being raped as your daughter and not having a legal system to handle this.

Perhaps you take matters in your own hands and kill the person. Will you get justice.

My daughter is not there to take decisions. She presents the facts and presents the legal case against the person. The jury, one's peers in society, take the decision and the judge presents the sentencing based upon the law.

I am sure California lawyer could put a more in depth perspective than I, however I do favor a rule of law. Unfortunately, corruption, especially at the bankster's level tends to create an uneven playing field. 

We have not yet entered the totalitarian or fascist state that you describe, at least at my daughter's level. 

· Feb 5, 2014 - 3:28pm


Forgot to add his link earlier. Tomorrow's A2A is with Jim Comiskey. Note the later start time:

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