The Critical Importance of 1260 and 20.50

Wed, Feb 5, 2014 - 11:58am

It's all there for everyone to see and it will likely come down to Friday's BLSBS for resolution.

Just a quick post this morning. Actually I wasn't planning to post anything before the podcast but the price action post-ADP demanded it. I've still got more snow to shovel and I haven't showered since Monday. Ick.

This is just pathetic, frankly. CNBS and other bubblehead commentators will lament gold's "lack of follow-through". Bullshit. Gold followed-through just fine. The problem is The Banks. They are intent upon keeping price down and under $1260 for as long as possible. Not only that, it is absolutely vital to the shorts that price be held below the 100-day moving average, too, currently near $1274 in the Apr14 contract.

When ADP was "disappointing" today (, price shot higher and actually tapped the 100-day. THIS COULD NOT BE ALLOWED TO STAND. The Forces of Darkness sprung into action, with the intention of beating gold back and living to fight another day. All else be damned. The fundos. The news. The global "safety trade". "Screw 'em", said The Banks. "We must try to restrain price today in the hopes that Friday's BLSBS will be stronger and we can keep price down even longer for once price exceeds $1260, $1280 and the 100-day MA, it will be clear for all to see that The Bottom is in."

On the bright side, silver finally broke through $19.50 AND it's 50-day MA. Additionally, it has actually found support from the 50-day on a retest. This is very encouraging but it was only allowed because silver is still well short of breaking out and through it's major resistance level of $20.50.

And so here's where we stand as we barrel toward Friday. You can plainly see that the pressure is significantly building against The Bad Guys at $1260. Another lousy BLSBS and the dam will break. A bad BLSBS will also shove silver back toward the top of it's range, too. Maybe even through it.

But, again, I can't stress enough how vital and important it is to the shorts to keep prices below these lines. If they are broken and price accelerates away from $1280 and toward $21, it will be abundantly clear and undeniable to any fair observer that THE BOTTOMS are in. Shorts will be squeezed and forced to cover and specs will actually begin to flip LONG. The Banks want to avoid this for as long as possible.

We joke all the time about how the bubblehead hypemeisters of CNBS et al like to spin each month's BLSBS as the "most important data point of all time". For us, this Friday really will be important. Be ready.


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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Feb 5, 2014 - 11:59am

Feb TFMR promo code

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Feb 5, 2014 - 11:59am



Feb 5, 2014 - 12:15pm



Feb 5, 2014 - 12:20pm

When gold will be measured RMB/gram?

When there's nothing left in the London vaults of course! 1280 RMB per gram will be a bargain.

47 Protons
Feb 5, 2014 - 12:53pm

For the Fifth time...

Oh wait... actually for the first time... but, I'm fifth.

this morning, when I woke up (late), I peaked at the kitco 3 day gold chart, and my first thought was:

This looks digital, like a stair-step digital pattern. I was looking at basically your first chart! Guess that's what an algo world looks like! :-\


Feb 5, 2014 - 1:01pm

Unemployment # on Friday BLSBS

We expect that the unemployment number released on friday will be significantly lower due to the 1 million long term unemployed people disappearing from the roles.

The congress critters are still talking about some sort of extension of those benefits.

If we get the number we expect, and a decrease to the range of 6.3-5.9%, what reaction do we expect? Is good news good news again? It seems like that switch has been made. Gold has spiked recently on bad economic news and the markets have dipped.

A large drop in the unemployment # would be positive. Is this setting us up for a friday smash?

If/when benefits are reauthorized will that cause those 1.3 million to immediately be recounted as unemployed leading to a spike back up to ~6.7%?

Feb 5, 2014 - 1:16pm

Silver medical breakthrough

Using silver nanoparticles, researchers create cream that avoids the transmission of HIV

Red Ice Creations

After discovering that silver nanoparticles are capable of blocking the entry of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) into the organism, a group of researchers from the University of Texas, in collaboration with Humberto Lara Villegas, specialist in nanoparticles and virology from the University of Monterrey, Mexico (UDEM), created a vaginal cream to control the transmition of the virus.


Above: Silver nanoparticles.

For those having c&p issues I switched to Firefox and everything is working fine, even with the security settings set higher than I had them using IE. No random deletion issues either.

Feb 5, 2014 - 1:17pm

What time are the ADP numbers released?

I noticed the spike started at 8:05, so was there front running or a delay on an 8:00 release?

Gold Dog
Feb 5, 2014 - 1:39pm

She was only a nine...

...but I liked her anyway!


Feb 5, 2014 - 2:04pm

Only a nine

Wow, I am in deep shit. My daughter (28) and certainly a 10 as well as being a prosecutor is marrying another lawyer.

That's all fine, but every time I practice giving a speech, I lose it and become teary eyed. Same thing happened when I practice answering who is giving away the bride.

I lose it every time.

Any advice? Practice, practice isn't working. I know I am in deep shit.

Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

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