Another FMT Video

Tue, Jan 14, 2014 - 8:38am

My friend, Dan at Future Money Trends, sent over a new video last evening. I thought it was timely, given the very encouraging action in the miners since the first of the year.

I hope to have a full update on the miners soon. Last week I wrote that I was waiting for some confirmation out of the HUI. As I looked at the chart, I figured we'd need a couple of days closes above the 210 level for me to get interested. Well, yesterday, we got close #1.

Next, IF we can stay above 210 this week and then move through the down-sloping trendline on the chart above, we'll really be onto something...with the rally likely extending toward 250 and maybe even 280.

But those are topics for another day. For now, let's just watch how the HUI moves over the next few days while keeping an eye on a few of the key miners, as well. To help you pass the time, here's the latest conversation between Dan and Marin Katusa of Casey Research. I think you'll find it helpful.

Have a Happy(?) Tuesday!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jan 14, 2014 - 9:34am

other great interviews

Great post Turd! Thanks!

Came across this this morning. I think folks here will really be interested:

Jan 14, 2014 - 9:36am

Baltic Dry Index Collapses

Saw an article linked to zerohedge from whatreallyhappened regarding how the Baltic dry index collapsed 35%, which is the worst start to year in 30 years.

Since I'm a doofus on this stuff, what's the significance of this?

Jan 14, 2014 - 9:46am

News Dragnet


We're in the Second Machine Age - Thomas Friedman, New York Times
Why IBM's Watson Can't Get a Job - Drake Bennett, Bloomberg BusinessWeek
The $53 Trillion Bailout Question - Gretchen Morgenson, New York Times
Legal Weed's Strange Economics - Bremner & Del Giudice, Bloomberg BW
Latest Miserable Job Numbers Are Probably Wrong - Bill Saporito, TIME
Why You Shouldn't Worry About the Bad Jobs Report - Thomas Kee, CNBC
White House Proves the White House Is Wrong - Jeffrey Dorfman, Forbes
U.S. Healthcare Obsession Is Bad Economics - Cedric Muhammad, Forbes
India Bets on Modinomics, Whatever It Is - William Pesek, Bloomberg
Bitcoin's Four Steps to Wall Street Acceptance - Jeff Cox, CNBC

A Compelling Case for Being Negative on Stocks - Shawn Tully, Fortune

It's Official: Almost All the Bears Are Dead - Avi Gilburt, MarketWatch
A Big A** Bubble In Social Media Stocks? - Michael Santoli, Yahoo Finance
Advanced Economic Malaise - Joseph Stiglitz, Project Syndicate
This New Fed Is a 'Dream Team' - Mohamed El-Erian, CNBC
Gisele Bundchen Dollar Bears Perish - Robin Wigglesworth, Financial Times
Winning At Investing Made Simple - Pat Regnier, Money Magazine
To Stop Income Inequality, Get Married - Ari Fleischer, Wall Street Journal
The Truth Behind Obamacare 6 Million Figure - Tami Luhby, CNNMoney
Elizabeth Warren's War on Job Creators - Zac Bissonnette, Bloomberg
Dinner with Goldman Cost Him $34,000,000 - Brett Arends, MarketWatch

Market Streak Has Ended, Echoes Have Not - Jeff Sommer, New York Times

A Bullish Case For Our Confused New Fed Chairman - John Tamny, Forbes
Quiet '14 Start Puts Investors In a Fix - E.S. Browning, Wall Street Journal
What If This Bull Market Is A Very Old Bear? - David Pett, National Post
No One Has a Clue What the Stock Market Will Do - Henry Blodget, MSN
A Good Time to Put Your Financial House In Order - Andrea Coombes, WSJ
The Poor Jobs Report Is Just Obama's 'New Normal' - Louis Woodhill, RCM
Disappearing Male Workers Are Not a Joke - Terry Keenan, New York Post
Reagan Got Economy Right In His Farewell - Steven Hayward, American
The War On Poverty's Wins and Losses - Robert Samuelson, Washington Post
The Holy See As a New Economic Power - Jason Trennert, Strategas Research
Is It True About China As the World's #1 Trader? - Gordon Chang, Forbes
Sen. Warren Gets to Truth of Bogus Bank Penalties - Michael Hiltzik, LAT

Why I Worry So Much Amid All the Optimism - Joseph Calhoun, Alhambra

A Complacent Lull Ahead Of Steep Losses - John Hussman, Hussman Funds
Will the European Central Bank Ease Further? - Jay Bryson, Wells Fargo
Leverage the Power of 'Now' In Investing - Chris Ciovacco, Ciovacco Capita

Arguments Against The Secular Bull Thesis - The Reformed Broker
When Is A Bubble A Bubble? - Institute For New Economic Thinking
Introducing The CADY - Eddy Elfenbein, Crossing Wall Street
Brains, Bulls & Lucky Tossers - timarr, The Psy-Fi Blog
3 Key Investing Takeaways From The Jobs Report - IShares
It Is Expensive To Be Poor - Barbara Ehrenreich, The Atlantic

The U.S.'s Dwindling Economic Freedom - Terry Miller, Wall Street Journal

Who's Exiting the Labor Force? - Diana Furchtgott-Roth, RealClearMarkets
What the Future Holds For Stocks and Gold - John Kimelman, Barron's
Five Reasons Stocks Off To a Slow Start In 2014 - Adam Shell, USA Today
Will 2013's Market Laggards Be 14's Winners? - John Wasik, National Post
Needing Market Correction, Or Want One? - Michael Gayed, MarketWatch
Wall Street Soars, While Main Street Ails - Patrice Hill, Washington Times
'Wolf of Wall Street' Is Just Exhausting - John Podhoretz, Weekly Standard
The Corporatist Legacy Of the Auto Bailouts - Todd Zywicki, Liberty Fund
CA's Bullet Train Is Going Nowhere Fast - Charles Lane, Washington Post
New Mortgage Rules Another Empty Obama Promise - Editorial, Investor's
CEO Explains Why His MBA Was Redundant - Odysseas Papadimitriou, BW
Insincere Words Used To Hide Welfare's Failure - Steven Hayward, Forbes

FBI Fears Fannie, Fred Fleece

Federal Reserve Said to Probe Banks Over Forex Fixing


Israel's Growing Isolation - Richard Cohen, Washington Post

How the French Handle a Sex Scandal - Jonathan Freedland, The Guardian
Can Iraq Survive? - Ted Galen Carpenter, The National Interest
Manmohan Singh: Out with a Whimper - Sadanand Dhume, Foreign Policy
What Britain Can Learn from Sickly France - Benedict Brogan, Telegraph
Human Rights Buried Under $51 Billion Games - Mark Cunningham, GMF
The Word That's Pulling Malaysia Apart - William Pesek, Bloomberg
Ariel Sharon's Deeply Disturbing Legacy - Sarah Leah Whitson, CNN
His Eye Was Not Dim - Elliott Abrams, Commentary Magazine
What if Ariel Sharon Still Lived? - David Landau, New York Times
Why Maduro Is Spinning Ms. Venezuela Murder - Tim Padgett, Miami Hld
Is Germany a Homophobic Country? - Anna Kistner et al., Der Spiegel
Four Elections That Will Shape the Mideast - Faisal Al Yafai, The National
Salafists Are Egypt's Wild Card - Eric Trager, Washington Institute
Blaming Peronism for All That Ills Argentina - Susana Decibe, Clarin

French Hiss at President's Bliss - The Australian
U.S. Shouldn't Back Egypt's Bogus Democracy - Washington Post
Thailand Moves Toward the Brink - Financial Times
Iran Sanctions Bill Makes No Mistake - USA Today

Iran's Economy Is Improving, So Much for Pressure - FDD
Is China Buying Up America? - AEI-Heritage Foundation
Erdogan Wanders Off the Reservation - Foreign Policy In Focus
Will Syrian War Last Another Decade? - Strategic Studies Institute

The 'Clash of Civilizations' That Never Was - Leon Hadar, Haaretz
Where al-Qaeda's Next Comeback Could Be - Bruce Riedel, The Daily Beast
A Tale of Two Surges - Rick Richman, Commentary
Why Does China Coddle North Korea? - Jonathan Pollack, New York Times
Power and Privacy in France - Gavin Hewitt, BBC News
The Iran Deal Meets Obamacare - Paul Pillar, The National Interest
U.S. Needs a Deal with Iran, Not Detente - Ray Takeyh, Washington Post
Cameron's Euro Agony a Disaster for Britain - Peter Mandelson, London ES
America Has Forgotten How to Finish Wars - Andrew Bacevich, LA Times
The Future Is Here in India -- for Some - David O'Dwyer, Irish Times
Ariel Sharon's Legacy of Separation - Geoffrey Levin, The Atlantic
Russia Revisits Pivotal Role in World War I - Christian Neef, Der Spiegel
Is General Sisi Taking Chuck Hagel's Phone Calls? - Shadi Hamid, Politico
Trust the People on Europe? Whatever Next! - Boris Johnson, Telegraph
What Was Edward Snowden Doing in India? - Shane Harris, Foreign Policy

Maliki Is as Dangerous as al-Qaeda - Anthony Cordesman, CSIS
Why Iran Is Now Obama's Best Mideast Bet - Patrick Smith, Fiscal Times
The Ayatollah's Disarming Wit - Roya Hakakian, New York Times
Is It OK to Laugh at Hitler Now? - Jeremy Wilson, The Kernel
Time to Bury "Sharonism" - Gershom Gorenberg, Tablet Magazine
U.S. Should Stay Out of Ukraine Fight - Doug Bandow, Forbes
Why Hollande's Private Life Is a Public Matter - Catherine Mayer, Time
Russia's Riot Girls, All Grown Up - Cathy Young, RealClearPolitics
Meth Gangsters vs. Citizen Militias in Mexico - Dudley Althaus, Global Post
Israel, Cyprus and the Billion Dollar Gas Question - Rem Korteweg, CER
Which Countries' Nukes Are Going to Get Stolen? - S. Brownstone, Co.Exist
How Israel, Hamas Weaponized Social Media - Dara Kerr, CNET

Jan 14, 2014 - 9:51am

Alright DPH

That one is more than I have time for this morning!

Funny Head Explosion
Jan 14, 2014 - 10:08am

While everyone speaks of the gold shortage..

The Silver shortage continues to gain steam.

While last week the SLV had no withdrawals, and even added 1.4 million that was erased by a 1,924,796 ounce withdrawal. Now, to get back on track the SLV will need to lose either another 3.5 million oz in the next week, or 1.5 million extra ounces over the next two weeks. The roughly 2 million oz drawdown should reinforce that the trend is very much in place, and continuing.

The Comex meanwhile just shed 1,277,666 ounces of registered silver(which was basically moved straight into JPM's eligible vaults). How many times the bullion banks can double, triple, or quadruple count silver(ie shift eligible to registered, and then back to eligible, and then back to registered) is anybody's guess, but as Ted Butler says....the stockpile #'s in silver's case isn't the takeaway. Rather it is the turnover that suggests tightness, and a roughly 4 to 5 million oz per week turnover is substantial.

The US Mint also has reportedly(not on their website yet though), sold 3,180,500 million oz of silver eagles so far in January, and roughly 63k gold eagles, and 32.5k buffaloes. Those are impressive #'s, but I was expecting silver's #'s to be twice that high, as it was last year by this time. It appears that silver is so tight in producing blanks, that the US Mint is tamping down production and rationing even more. Cute.....but it won't save them.

Jan 14, 2014 - 10:16am


I was just reading the comments section at another blog, and someone is suggesting that to minimize voting fraud, every single citizen should register to vote absentee, which requires a paper record of your vote. I am sure the criminals that make up the Democratic and Republican Parties would still find a way to install their puppets, but on its face this seems very logical to me.

Jan 14, 2014 - 10:27am


nice little pop thru 20.50!!

R man JCleburne61
Jan 14, 2014 - 10:30am

Physical Demand Trend


Are you saying that the mint had over 6 million ASE sold by 1/14/13? They ended the month with 7 million. I think I remember them halting production in late January '13. Nonetheless, there is a sold core of Physical Investors, which is growing slowly, so there is almost no way these numbers will decrease (unless they halt production).

Bron stated recently that the Mints are often wrong on their forecast, causing these dry production holes. But he also stated that the average investor is not buying PMs and there is no way the mints could keep up if the average investor starts piling in.

Almost exclusively this small minority of hard core PM investors (long term accumulators) are causing this nice-gradual increase in demand every year. I fully expect the demand at the mints to exceed as long as the prices stay under $30/$1500.

Jan 14, 2014 - 10:51am

Mints can't keep up with silver demand for coins . . .

"The premium charged by wholesale dealers for American Eagle coins from the U.S. Mint may rise from 14%. The mint has said that weekly allocations will be reduced despite very strong demand so far this month.

Yesterday, the U.S. Mint said 89% of this week’s quota of 3.58 million silver eagles were sold following sales that were stopped on December 9th because of a lack of supply.

Sales of silver American Eagles rose to an all-time high of 42.675 million ounces in 2013. Purchases jumped to a monthly record in January 2013, and the mint suspended business for a week because of a lack of inventory.

The silver bullion coin market is tight with strong hands refusing to sell and mints rationing supplies. Silver's sharp fall is seeing the smart money continue to accumulate silver coins while supply is available and premiums still relatively low."

R man J
Jan 14, 2014 - 11:05am

From zh article

Key quote from the article: "The mint has said that weekly allocations will be reduced despite very strong demand so far this month."

So they are going to drop supply regardless of demand - demand will increase beyond that because everyone wants to get in before premiums increase even more.

Then money will flow into other silver products- and their premiums will also increase.

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Key Economic Events Week of 11/11

11/12 Three Fed Goon speeches
11/13 8:30 ET CPI
11/13 11:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/14 8:30 ET PPI
11/14 Four Fed Goon speeches
11/14 10:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
11/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/4

11/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
11/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
11/6 Speeches by Goons Williams, Harker and Evans
11/8 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
11/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 10/28

10/30 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 2:00 ET FOMC fedlines
10/30 2:30 ET CGP presser
10/31 8:30 ET Personal Income & Spending
10/31 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/1 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
1/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

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