Pre-Fedline Open Thread

Wed, Dec 18, 2013 - 10:06am

With just fours hours to go until "the most important FOMC headlines in years", here's a thread to enter your predictions and discuss the consequences.

Of course, ole Turd is on the record stating that a BLT (Bernank Legacy Taper) is about a 50/50 probability. What I'm 100% certain of is a rally once it's all said and done. Why? There are just two scenarios:

  1. A BLT. Something like $10B/month, dropping ongoing QE∞ all the way back to just $75B/month or $900B/year. The pre-programmed algos will SELL at 1:59:55 and gold will puke back down to $1210-1215 before immediately reversing and squeezing the shorts.
  2. No taper. Price immediately soars through $1250 and on toward $1260. Rallying further this evening and into tomorrow.

Hmmm. Looks like, either way, prices head higher from here, not lower. Again, when everyone is on the same side of the trade, everyone is bound to be wrong. In this instance, everyone is short, expecting a taper and expecting gold to drop through $1180. You should expect the opposite.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Dec 18, 2013 - 3:49pm

I'm Confused

Everyone is congratulating Turd for nailing his call today, but didn't he say, 1) gold will puke back down to $1210-1215 before immediately reversing and squeezing the shorts, or 2) No taper. Price immediately soars through $1250 and on toward $1260, He concluded by saying, "Looks like, either way, prices head higher from here, not lower." But prices dropped and then rallied after announcement only to crash again and currently sit down 12.50 at 1219.

Dec 18, 2013 - 3:50pm
Dec 18, 2013 - 3:51pm

Must... Break... Gold..

Ouch, again.

Lower price, check.

Hold price, check

Kill any and all rallies, check.

Start waterfall declines, check.

Evict poor people, check.

Sell Mother, check.

Next trick?


Dec 18, 2013 - 3:52pm

You're right

I think the congratulations stem from the BLT prediction.

Regarding price, even I am surprised by the drive down. See the charts above, though, and I guess I shouldn't be.

Price bounced TWICE recently from $1210. We may be about to see if it can bounce there a third time. Either way, there would appear to be pretty good support between 1210 and 1220. We'll see...

Dec 18, 2013 - 3:55pm

The bloom is off the rose

The whole thing has lost it's luster.

Sure, it's all fake money and bound for it's natural end, but he used to believe what he was saying. Now he still has the same answers, still says the same things, but the belief is gone. Maybe not gone, but leaving.

Maybe even leaving as he hears himself talk. Maybe his own departure is giving him the perspective.

When the pretense dies, everything changes.

Even the reporters didn't appear to be bought in to a legitimate situation. They were like "ok... let me read this question so I can get out of here and knock out this next level of Candy Crush"

One man, from NBC(? don't remember) was standing up asking his question, and you could almost see reality washing over him as he read. thinking..."I'm a grown man who set though all that traffic and went through all this crap, just to read this dumb question, what a doofus"

When the pretense dies, everything changes. Kinda funny how that works. For as long as the pretense continues, the most critical blunders can occur and the show will roll on.

But when the pretense dies, as is happening right now on live television, there are no blunders... no certain 'moments'... , the whole thing just suddenly appears to be seen by all participants as the silly little farce that it is.

Old Ben is probably a nice guy and a good neighbor. Monetary reality, should he continue toward it, is going to feel worse before it feels better.

Maybe we could get him into Turdville? Maybe a bunch of us pitch in 1 oz. to get him started stacking? Imagine how animated and happy he would be on an A2A with Turd asking him real human questions, and therapeutically 'BS'ing about the old days in voodoo land.

DayStar SS121
Dec 18, 2013 - 3:59pm

RE: The Bloom Is Off the Rose

SS121, it sounds like you are saying the Fed has jumped the shark!


Dec 18, 2013 - 4:01pm
Dec 18, 2013 - 4:03pm

T(urd) - 8 trading days

Until we put the 70,000 JPM contracts are long and extremely bullish for a 4th Qtr rally nonsense to bed. Several of us raised this challenge and looks like we are right. (and trust me being right has cost me a boatload of dough because I went with you) One question that I still would like an answer to is why would JPM with ~$200 TRILLION in derivative exposure mainly in interest sensitive instruments ever want PM's to go up and threaten their interest rate CDO's and swaps with massive losses? ala London Whale. To me that still means slam the door shut on any serious up move while picking the bones clean like they always do. Yes I think we have all intimated that having a long versus short PM position is smart for JPM just in case it all hits the fan cause that's when it sure beats being short......For now looks like those algo's that are constantly the brunt of jokes here have made a hell of alot more dough than us.

On a more positive note congrats on the Bernanke taper call it was right on and yes I think a short squeeze tomorrow is probably a reasonable expectation. Especially now with both gold and silver seriously in the red. Next step on your good call was they wouldn't let Bernanks going away party end with a nice run up in the PM's now would they? How do you make anything logical come out of this freaking manipulated pile of crap? Rule #1 The house is crooked! Rule #2 Never forget Rule 1

Dec 18, 2013 - 4:07pm

You make some excellent points

I thought the "Q4 rally" was already put to bed.

I've spent the past month vigorously defending gold against those who predict $1050 and I've stated repeatedly that the best we could hope for was $1320 in gold and near $22 in silver by year end. I'll grant you, though, that even those modest numbers are looking a little too rosy right now but there are still two, light-volume and thin liquidity weeks to go. Plenty of time for some short-squeezing.

Dec 18, 2013 - 4:11pm
seva108 Kansascrude
Dec 18, 2013 - 4:11pm

We did get the beatdown on Taper that Turd predicted

just not immediately after announcement. I did buy and lose when the beatdown happened.

But, remains to be seen whether there will be a squeeze and price rise in the next couple of days.

Jpak TF
Dec 18, 2013 - 4:13pm

end of year

Hey Turd,

Demark cautioned silver and gold investors about tax selling into end of year.


Blythesshrink Jpak
Dec 18, 2013 - 4:43pm

"Demark cautioned silver and

"Demark cautioned silver and gold investors about tax selling into end of year."

But surely there aren't many specs left on the long side - so who is he expecting to be selling for tax reasons?

Dec 18, 2013 - 5:08pm

Turd, Is there any change in

Turd, Is there any change in expectation for price based on the takedown today. Do you still expect the june lows to hold?

Dec 18, 2013 - 5:09pm

Turd's call

If I recall, Turd predicted we'd go down to 1210-1215 after the FED announcement. Here we are. So far so good. It just took an hour instead of a few minutes... He's not wrong until a squeeze wimps out and that remains to be seen.

I wish I had saved some dry powder, but I think my long positions will be fine by Friday. My concern has been well-articulated by Kansascrude--that JPM still has orders to keep a lid on metals. Its just safer for them to do while net long rather than net short.

I fear they could keep metal prices under control for quite some time by suckering specs into shorting and profiting on mini-short squeezes at opportune moments. I suspect JPM has been profiting all the way down from 1360 the past couple of months. JPM has the financial backing to move the markets. They get word of IMF interventions in AU before they occur. Their monkeys are probably the best money can buy--better than the spec monkeys. Their algos are more sophisticated. They can trade circles around others--especially if COMEX gives them the ability to see the orders waiting up and down the bid and ask stacks, to see where the stops are set by others. Who is going to out-trade them by guessing at the data that JPM programs in with certainty?

The perception that the economy is improving is all that matters. Metals can languish and miners go broke for all TPTB care.

I am just one of the pilot fish hanging with the big shark, hoping for some crumbs.

Dec 18, 2013 - 5:20pm


Mountain Man Post History

You seem to be a one trick pony, always calling for downward gold movement. Care to contribute anything to support your thesis? Well, other than to paste links from M. Armstrong.

Dark Matter
Dec 18, 2013 - 5:26pm

Stocks rule

Why do you still believe in Gold and Silver?

The stock market keeps rising and rising - it has been rising for five years. And with the economic recovery there is no sign of a stock market crash.

Despite all the doomsday forecasts there hasn't been a recession since 2009.

So, why do you still believe in Gold and Silver?

Dec 18, 2013 - 5:36pm

The markets these days are all just . . .


Phyzz gold and silver are the only real, lasting money, proven so for 5000 years.

The last 43 years of anti-gold-money were an experimental anomaly, enforced by gun-barrel diplomacy and the gold-replacement, petro-dollar.

The smart money is quietly accumulating phyzz, taking it in from wherever it can be found, trading in shares of GLD, and other paper forms of gold. JPM and its ilk play patty-cake amongst themselves, only giving (or trying to) the impression of viable, free markets.

The fiat crash will come. But first, the people must be starved down, their assets torn from them, so they will beg for whatever the PTB might throw their way. We are in that process, and the FSA grows.

waxybilldupp Orange
Dec 18, 2013 - 9:03pm


Just getting started reading today's TFMR "stuff". Daunting task ahead of me. Had to note the Santelli rant.

LOVE THAT GUY! He is the only regular on CNBS worth listening to. Art Cashin knows his way around the trading floor, and is willing to nudge the boundaries now and then by hinting at what's behind the curtain, but always treads lightly. Rick, on the other hand, lets it ALL hang out.

wax off

Dec 18, 2013 - 9:35pm

Dark Matter

The search for truth

You see, the housing market kept going up and up and folk thought they were smart and bought houses even though there was no real wealth there. They were inflated.

Well....exactly the same thing is happening in stocks. They have no proper right to be going so high. This looks like a bubble too.

As were the tech stocks etc

As are bonds...

And I doubt stop losses will help you. Because when they pull the plug, there needs to be a buyer at the price of your stop loss. I suspect there will be no buyers. So then,,, when they need to do a world wide bail in and you sit there crying something pathetic like,,, it's not fair.. well I will pick you off the floor, take you to the nearest bar, get you a napkin to dry your eyes and then you can watch me drinking a large scotch; while I mutter "there there" in a very patronizing voice.

Dec 18, 2013 - 11:41pm

Washout or Turds Right

We will see tomorrow if turd is right or the final washout will begin

Dark Matter Bugzy
Dec 19, 2013 - 2:37am

@ Bugzy

Thanks for your reply.

I am very confused by now as I was expecting something bad, a crash, more jobless people, some kind of civil unrest, etc.

But nothing happened.

Recession is over, the unemployment rate goes down, the cut in food stamps hasn't led to any uproar at all.

And: when everybody is pessimistic, stocks usually go up. It is the euphoria that leads to a stock market crash.

Dec 19, 2013 - 5:37am

I guess no short sqeeze

I guess no short sqeeze today. Dow is up 30%. Pms....well one day we will get our money back.

Dec 19, 2013 - 8:18am


goes on til the next big shock brings it down.

ireali/iranian war gets oil to $200 n and it never sees 150$ again.

oil is in everything even if its just transportation.

but we may well see 1050$ gold but not for long.

1050 would be the same correction %wise as in 1976..............and after that it did 800%.

with a 17TRIL$ US debt...........Paul Volcker is not walking thru that door.


Tom Demark's comment on gold selling at end of year.........his tax reason was to offset DOW trading profits from 2013.

it makes sense.

Dec 19, 2013 - 10:16am

Dark matter

I understand what you mean. There are times, like now, when I wonder if my long term model is right.

It their job to instill this "confidence" in their system. There are less folk working in the USA, they are being paid less and are getting poorer. There is less disposable income. Obamacare is going to create a huge sucking sound.

My macro view is still very much intact. Too much debt, too expensive energy, infrastructure in decay, everything propped up with band aids. Things (economics) come in cycles, we are currently in the UP swing, I think this is as good as it gets.

Fracking is providing a temporary lift, this will be short lived and seems like an act of desperation.

No, Mogambu has it right. WAAFD - we are all freaking doomed!

If it was not for the stock market going up and gold going down, you would be ok with your model me thinks. These do seem to me to be not "normal" moves in this environment. The physical demand for Gold and Silver seems high; if there was only the physical market then the price would have to reflect this. So then one must ask, why is the paper price going down if the physical demand is high? One would expect the paper price to reflect the actual demand. However in this Alice in wonderland world in which we live, then paper price can and does affect physical demand. Indeed someone on the Comex actually said this to Kyle Bass. Don't worry, the price will fix everything. Bass took delivery instead.

There is no real housing market lift. It is on life support, interest rates cannot stay as they are without being frigged. It is still very much broken in my view.

Video unavailable

If and when enough have taken delivery. China et al. Then paper price loses control of the physical.

P/E ratios on stock does not lend one to think they are a bargain at all. So, folk who study value are certainly not buying.

It is currently merely a seat at the casino were the house wants you to look like you are winning. Folk are sitting there intoxicated, again; thinking they have found easy money.

Wealth is only really created through productivity, the rest is just a magicians trick. IMO

The magician can only pull off his illusion if he makes the stock market the only game in town (Bass again, last week) and keeps the throng away from the Gold tables.

Meanwhile there is a small of curry in the air an a lot of yellow looking folk, not of the round eye variety ( I have never claimed to be PC) Sitting in the casino next door and the Gold tables are full.

Dec 19, 2013 - 10:16am

Dark matter

Double, see below

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