Courage and Conviction

Wed, Dec 4, 2013 - 10:11am

Longtime Turdites will recall the forecast that set Turd on this path. Issued at a time when nearly everyone thought the PM bull market was dead, "Turd's Bottom" in early 2011 proved to be an important turning point. We are once again at such a crossroads.

First, a history lesson for those new to Turdville....

QE2 had been launched in November of 2010 and the metals subsequently rallied until January 2011, at which point they stalled and corrected. The Bears were out in force. It was over. The metals were dead. Not so, said I. So confident was I that price would turn and head higher that I issued an ultimatum. Either gold would reverse and charge nearly 20% higher over the next four months or I would shut down the blogspot site and disappear back into the ether. You can read all about it here:

Of course, some of the same trolls that plague me to this day claimed that, since gold only rose 19% to a high of $1577 in mid-May, I was a disingenuous liar for not shutting down the site. Two things:

  • They could/can all go pound sand. Price rallied $257 instead of $280.
  • Regardless...I did stick to my word. I closed the blogspot site on 6/14/11 and opened this one. <At this point, Turd sticks out tongue and blows "raspberry" at ankle-biting critics.>

Anyway, we have reached a similar checkpoint in our journey. Sentiment is terrible, the charts look like garbage and the entire investment chattering class is spewing nonsense against us. Though it's obviously not good for business to put one's neck on the line in such a manner, I think it's important that you fully understand and appreciate the absolute certainty I have in my conviction.

  • The Precious Metals Bull Market is not dead.
  • The June 2013 lows will hold in the days ahead and be looked back upon as a double bottom with the current prices.
  • Prices will rally this month and into January.
  • Though there will be setbacks and bouts of resistance, the bull market will resume in 2014.

How can I say this with such certainty?

  • Contrary to popular opinion, QE will not be tapered to zero in 2014. Quite the opposite will happen as U.S. government funding needs accelerate in a weakening economy.
  • Because of this increased QE, interest rates will not rise as nearly everyone currently forecasts. Instead, the 10-year note will trend back under 2.50% and head toward 2.0%.
  • Realization of QE∞ will eventually stem the tide of Spec money into the short side of the metals, reversing the flow of funds and causing a massive unwind and short squeeze.
  • Rapid global fiat currency devaluation will lead to an even greater level of physical demand.
  • The LAW of supply and demand will re-assert itself after being suspended in 2013.

Finally and most importantly, JPM is NET LONG Comex gold futures to the point of having cornered the paper gold market. Since, for now, paper Comex trading continues to determine global price, nothing could be more important.

As we've documented here since last July, in 2013 JPM has successfully converted what had been a massive NET SHORT Comex gold position into an equally massive NET LONG Comex gold position. This position is likely near 75,000 contracts as you read this. As a percentage of open interest, that is nearly 20% and a clear and undeniable "corner" on the LONG side. Though they have rolled and extended the majority of this position into 2014, they are standing for as many as 7,000-8,000 deliveries in December. Thus far, through just the first four delivery days, the JPM House Account has accounted for (stopped) 1,011 of the total 1,086 deliveries made. That's 93.1%. So, please follow along with me here:

  • Comex paper trading sets global price
  • JPM is the Big Kahuna in Comex metals trading
  • JPM is NET LONG to the point of cornering gold futures
  • JPM is taking delivery of 93% of the December contracts
  • Unlike the past, it now clearly benefits and profits JPM to see price rise
  • And you seriously think gold is headed lower from here?

Therefore, remain patient and diligent. Watch for a turn in price off of the June lows. A December move back above $1250 in gold and $21 in silver will begin the process of Spec unwind and short squeeze, setting up a continued rally in January. By holding physical precious metal, you are protecting and insulating yourself against the certain global economic madness of 2014 and beyond.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


TinHat TF
Dec 4, 2013 - 11:04pm

unlucky six

sixth attempt, no silver no luck. got a couple screen shots if you want them.

Dec 4, 2013 - 11:05pm

PLEASE, everyone. Vaulters and regulars alike...

The significance of proving beyond a reasonable doubt that JPM is massively NET LONG, likely as many as 75,000 Comex gold contracts, cannot be understated.

Total open interest is only 386,000. This means that JPM has a cornering position of nearly 20%. NOTHING COULD BE MORE IMPORTANT.

Does this mean that gold is instantly going back to $1900? Of course not. With total control over the paper market, gold will now move UP at a pace that best suits JPM's interest.

What this DOES mean is that gold is NOT GOING TO $1050 and $850 and all of the other nonsense you've surely been reading lately. As stated yesterday, with JPM NET LONG 75,000 contracts, a $200 drop from here would cost them $1.5B while at the same time profiting the Short Specs and short non-U.S. banks the same amount. DO YOU REALLY THINK THAT JPM IS GOING TO ALLOW THAT TO HAPPEN WHEN THEY HAVE TOTAL CONTROL THROUGH THEIR CORNERING POSITION?

I simply cannot state this more strongly. Anyone who predicts that gold is going lower is either:

  • Intentionally misleading you (GS and the other banks).
  • Simply unaware of the facts and/or how and what really controls the price of paper metal on The Comex.
Dec 4, 2013 - 11:06pm

Please. By all means...

send them to me at tfmetalsreport dot com at gmail

I would also encourage you to call Scottsdale directly in the morning. They can be reached at 1-888-745-2279

Thank you for your patience.

HeirHelmut TF
Dec 4, 2013 - 11:42pm

That's grrreat to hear Turd,

That's grrreat to hear Turd, but playing the devil's advocate I would say, that holding such an amount of contracts per se does nothing.

JPM will need, to get the market moving, to take delivery and then they will need to pay for all 100 Ozs. And to cash in the profit, they will need to sell the Ozs into the physical market.

On the other hand, how big is the upside potential, if JPM would take delivery of ALL available Comex gold? That would create a short covering rally of historic dimensions and as we know, Gold has an inverse price-demand relationship: the more the price rises, the higher the demand if the goldfever kicks in. So JPM could not only bust the Comex but also make the PHYSICAL market EXPLODE.

So even taking the negative aspects into account, the position of JPM with so many GC long at low Comex inventories, is incredibly strong.

One simply must admit, that this move from JPM since the highs of 1900 to these levels was simply brilliant. And while Goldman Sachs took the lead in smashing the goldprice this year, JPM obviously and silently bought what the others were selling, perfectly calculating the drain of the GLD and the Comex inventories. And while all others were selling and the GLD and Comex inventories were reduced, JPM was going long and longer to such an amount, that now they probably have it in their hands to bust the Comex - if they want to do so. Incredible.

What is their intention behind this brilliant move, executed over more than a year?

Dec 4, 2013 - 11:44pm

JP Morgan takes Comex

JP Morgan takes Comex delivery of 238,900 oz mostly from one source, HSBC.

Delayed loot from GLD reports 87,000 oz extracted yesterday. Took two days after the big swoon. Why so long? Does GLD have to round up gold too?

The What the F%#k Comex Travesty:

Dec 4, 2013 - 11:50pm

Ordering from Scottsdale

I had trouble when using Internet Explorer as my browser, pictures but no ability to order. I tried Firefox and all was fine, pictures, order forms and all kinds of good stuff.

Mr. Fix alan2102
Dec 5, 2013 - 12:10am

Alan 2102:

I don't feel that Chris Hedges has outdone me, and I think that his grasp of the situation is seriously flawed, I am 45 min. into his presentation, and have concluded that his entire premise as to what caused the disaster we face is that liberals have lost control, and that capitalism run wild will be our demise.

He still separates them right from the left, and he believes many of the ideologies they profess, although it is admirable of him to point out how the liberals at the top of the pile don't believe what they are preaching.

The fact of the matter is, both sides are answering to elites behind the scenes which intend to enslave humanity, and greatly reduce our numbers. His assertion that “the New York Times is not liberal”, is farcical on its face.

he strikes me as a disenchanted lifelong liberal, who was watching his ideology disintegrate, and is casting blame in all the wrong places.

He has yet to address the new world order folks, who have Really planted the seeds of our destruction, and seems clueless as to how both parties are puppets to them.

on a lighter note,

I was watching the clock on Thanksgiving, and actually counted down to the end of the world at 2 PM,

then I continued preparing my turkey dinner, and gave thanks that you were wrong.

Seeing as there are still a couple of hours left of this interview, I think I'll listen some more.

His exposé on how we must solve “the global warming problem”, was enough to put me over the edge,

he has absolutely no idea what's really going on here.

He does seem to have at least arrived at the right conclusion that America is going down in flames,

but he doesn't realize that the sellouts are on both sides of the aisle, and that Americas demise has been a carefully orchestrated conspiracy put in place generations ago.

There is a concerted effort to blame individual liberty and capitalism on all that ails our world, when in reality, it is the absence of these two concepts which has brought all of humanity to its knees.

As bad as he thinks it is going to be,

it's worse than that.

DeaconBenjamin benny_bomb_boom
Dec 5, 2013 - 12:17am

i wish my wife would listen to that.

i wish my wife would listen to that. she still gives me crap about the paper price and i just smile. say babe its true but we have time on our side. the tide will rise. sure 200 ag would be swell, but i have a feeling it means life as we know it now does not remain. i stand firm with my charge. as each new swell rolls through, stay vigilant turds.

I suspect it is no comfort, but I struggled with my wife on stacking for about 10 years. When she saw what happened to what we bought in 1999, it hasn't been a problem. Hopefully for you it won't take 10 years.

infometron russwinter
Dec 5, 2013 - 1:01am

The What the F%#K Comex Travesty

Thanks for that link to, russwinter...

Therein I read, reread, and repeat here:

"But the 5,960 producer contracts long (596,000 oz) might be a key forensic pointing to something else. Nobody is more likely to bring in the armored trucks and clean out what little registered gold remains in the Comex than a player in an industry that is being completely abused by these paper attacks. Incidentally, there were 590,800 ounces of registered gold left at the Comex before Monday’s paper dump. Gee, about the same as the producer longs, hmm. Naturally, with 6,770 December futures still standing on Tuesday and this historic revelation about the producers being long, one wonders about what’s up."

Seriously!? Producers long!!? The world truly is upside down! Is it possible, Turd, that the producers intend to break the COMEX?! That would place JPM just along for the ride with no responsibility or recrimination from tptb?! If so, we'd better hold on to our hats...

Edit: Or, more cynically, could JPM start dumping Au to counteract such a move...?

Dec 5, 2013 - 1:16am
Dec 5, 2013 - 1:33am

silver premium is insane in shanghai

silver spot prices only briefly dipped below the level when silver made the breakout on Aug. 8 - aug. 9, which is around 20.5 - 20.6. the premium is about 1.5 dollar an ounce.

i've never seen such high spot premium at previous market bottoms in shanghai!

so silver spot price in shanghai has refused to dip below 20. folks, i'm amazed!

sentiment is extremely low. most silver longs are expecting the prices to break down but the june lows and shorts are piling up significantly before last night's spike up.

with last night turnaround action, the charts say that a bottom is likely now!

i wish turd is finally right in this one!

the breakdown in the miners sure spooked many PM investors.

but it could turn out to be a 2-b setup/reversal.

hope this ordeal finish soon!

Dec 5, 2013 - 2:49am


"What is their intention behind this brilliant move, executed over more than a year?"

Maybe they are restocking Fort Knox, preparing for the big revaluation.

One can hope.

russwinter infometron
Dec 5, 2013 - 2:54am

Hearing Constant Footsteps

I know the gold community hears constant footsteps, but I truly believe JPM is long to make a lot of money on the upside. That is their primary motive.

Dec 5, 2013 - 5:16am

Wednesday Comex Deliveries

JP Morgan takes Comex delivery of 238,900 oz mostly from one source, HSBC’s registered gold account. At last tally HSBC only had 80,257 oz in it’s house account, umh. Is somebody being pushed to the wall here?

I Run Bartertown
Dec 5, 2013 - 6:34am

Precious For Sale

"For sale I have a 1.5ct total weight engagement ring set in 14K white gold. The ring is in like new condition, only worn for a short period of time by Satan herself. Comes with the original box. Very pretty ring with a lower setting so the diamonds won't snag on everything. Diamonds along the sides and in the channel setting show off light from all sides. Originally purchased from Littman's for a sum of money far greater than I am comfortable admitting.

Warning: ring may be cursed as it tends to leave a path of destruction behind it. Possible events associated with this ring include but are not limited to: damage sustained to house, vehicle, heart, downed powerlines, fallen trees, and swarms of locus. I would highly recommend taking action to counter the whirlwind of bad mojo that surround this piece of jewelry. Should consider having curse removed by voodoo priest or something before presenting to loved one. Other than that a very nice piece of jewelry.

Looking to sell this soon before it brings any more bad luck into my life and I'd rather have cash. If not sold by Christmas I plan to throw it into the fires of Mordor."

Dec 5, 2013 - 8:41am

Mr Fix--Chris Hedges

Thanks for your comments on his video


vonburpenstein I Run Bartertown
Dec 5, 2013 - 8:47am

that precious ring....

......I happen to have one just like it!

Dec 5, 2013 - 9:09am

Paper gold and silver . . .

To the extent people send their fiat in exchange for shares in CEF, SLV, GLD and any other PM fund, instead of buying phyzz, they help the TBTF banks manipulate the system. Their money is used against them.

Dec 5, 2013 - 10:14am


pushing the 2.9% basis 10yr. Above 3 .........will break things.

Dec 5, 2013 - 10:17am

Turd, courage is one thing...

Conviction is another matter.

First of all, I'll state that most of my savings are in gold and silver related investments. I have been since 2007. I've not sold anything except a few dog miners along the way. So, I share the same hope and sentiment as most here in terms of metals being one day 'released' to rise to a price that would be appropriate based on the metrics of debt and trust in governments. That, and I have had the courage to sit tight, even while I have wondered often in the last two years if I am only "right" if the world was not so corrupt. If the historic norms in calculating the price of gold and silver were to be realized, I am convinced we would now have prices that were so high that even we metals "bugs" would be amazed (and very happy about).

But for now, we watch with frustration and even helplessness as our investments are toyed with and trashed on a daily basis. Such is life when investing in a product or industry that the government and the bankers hate to see reach anywhere near it's true value in whatever fiat terms we want to measure against. Their Ponzi depends on low metals prices. Their livelihood and possibly their life depends on the metals being under tight control. That being said...

I am NOT convinced that your thesis is correct, as much as I would like to. And I really, really hope you are right, and that JPM being long gold would make the difference. In this inside out, upside down world, how can we trust any fundamental or technical or reported number or disposition? Charts lie, reporters lie, governments lie, BLS lies, COT lies... and so on.

Besides that, if the Feds are currently printing 85 billion a month (that they admit to) to hand to the banks in a big circle-jerk bond scheme, how can anyone be sure that JPM will go against the wishes of their masters aka "clients"? If that were not enough, there are so many 'dark pools' of money via PPT, ESF and only God knows where else, to fund any size takedown of any amount of gold, any industry or any nation for that matter.

If, as many of us suspect, JPM works in cahoots with the Fed, why would they not use all that 1.5 billion gold (priced in fiat of course) they supposedly have cornered to begin a new campaign of flooding the market ala CB's to continue to trash gold price? One or two billion fiat dollars are but a blip on the screen of the money printers. For just one example: what if, to dump their gold on the market and waterfall price (again), JPM is simply given 2 billion Benny Bucks and a few pallets on the side to certain executives for the work well done? Would that not make everyone in their camp as happy as demons on Halloween?

Unfortunately, the near, mid or even long-term price of gold or anything else is just beyond my capability to predict, much less be convinced of time and price. Again, I have bet almost everything on what I've long held as fundamentally sound money... yet, I AM convinced that the metals and everything else is manipulated by and for the benefit of the bankers and crony corporations. I am convinced that we are living in a time in this world where the laws, markets and culture has been subverted to punish good and reward evil. I am convinced that the wicked system of things is, like evil itself, in the air and touches everything. I am convinced that the evil doers are most powerful and most desperate at this time.

The enormous power that has taken the metals from 1900 and 50 have done so without breaking a sweat. They have managed the descent of price at will. They no longer care that their manipulation is noticed because they know they are above the laws of man.

I am convinced TPTB will have their way, and will force gold and silver to any paper price they wish. And they have the tools and the military to make sure this is a worldwide affair. When and if they want metals to increase in price they will make it happen. Not before. You stated in the above post:

"Anyone who predicts that gold is going lower is either:

- Intentionally misleading you (GS and the other banks).

- Simply unaware of the facts and/or how and what really controls the price of paper metal on The Comex."

But there should a third or fourth point below your declaration. Misleading or unaware certainly are options, but, in light of what I stated above and what we've all witnessed in the last two years, how can you possibly be so convinced of anything?

So, to add one other bullet point to your list, I'll close with mine:

- Hopeful yet guarded: Recognize that nothing is as it seems in this wicked system, realize that the gold, silver, commodity and currency war is not a fair or clean war without casualties and yet they (we) remain hopeful that gold and silver will rise to achieve prices that are multiples higher than where they are artificially held today.

Dec 5, 2013 - 10:28am

Australia Has $16 Minimum Wage

Australia Has $16 Minimum Wage and is the Only Rich Country to Dodge the Global Recession

Australia has twice the minimum wage as the US and Big Macs cost roughly the same. - August 9, 13

JAISAL NOOR, TRNN PRODUCER: Welcome to The Real News Network. I'm Jaisal Noor in Baltimore.

Over the past year, increasing amounts of fast food and retail workers have been on strike demanding $15 an hour and better benefits and working conditions. Their struggle has spread nationwide, and their demands have been hotly debated in the media.

To talk about this issue, we'll go to Australia, where the minimum wage is over $16 an hour for fast food workers.

We're now joined by Salvatore Babones. He is a senior lecturer in sociology and social policy at the University of Sydney in Sydney, Australia, associate fellow at the Institute for Policy Studies in Washington, D.C., and also writes for numerous publications, such as Truthout.

Thank you so much for joining us. video interview...

Dec 5, 2013 - 12:02pm

What would the FED do?

If it was long the COMEX?


HeirHelmut tyberious
Dec 5, 2013 - 12:03pm

Re: Reverse Speech

No need to use reverse speech which is highly subjective and therefore IMO counterproductive.

The Satanists and the supporters of the Illuminati agenda say OPENLY what they are doing. You only need to open your eyes and your ears, like Mark Dice shows:

Lady Gaga Admits to Pact with Satan
Video unavailable
Kesha Admits She's a Satanist
Video unavailable

There is nothing to deny. Everyone with an IQ over a plastic bag knows, that videos or movies are artificial products planned into the last detail. Every spoon on a table in the background of a kitchen is there because someone intentionally placed it there.

The same is ofcourse true for music production and the lyrics. Art is always made with a certain intention. And if the lyrics are propagating promiscuity to kids, then this is not happening randomly, but there is intention from the texter, over the producer, to the releasing company to do this.

People in this regime have no clue, that everything they consume via media is always a carefully crafted artificial product with intentions. "What intentions could there be, we have free press!"

Just read a movie review and you know everything how dumb or collaborative even reviewers are. All reviews only deal with the obvious, the acting performance, the plot, but not a single review looks at the manipulation of the subconsciousness, which is much more important! Hollywood uses action or crime mostly to attract the sheeple, but the message is burned into their brains subconsciously: have you ever read a review of the James Bond garbage, that is was highly racist with always blonde haired Aryan villains, that Hollywood always presents blacks as progressive and good, the white family suffering from the father, while the divorced woman is always the caring mother and the more a woman acts like a whore in a movie, the more likeable she is presented?

World War Z with Brad Pitt is hailed for the action, but while all other countries should tear down their walls and give up their identity, Israel is hailed in this movie for building walls, the Arabs being presented as Zombies, actors in this movie must say that "illegal trade in body organs in Germany" could have been the cause and that a World Government was the only solution? Not one of the paid reviewers writes about and seems to care that this is a propaganda movie of the highest degree...

Not a single review also discusses the subtext, or the political indoctrination, when minorities are always presented as poor and the white Aryan "majority" as evil or people living in small villages as stupid.

No need to use reverse speech - just open your eyes and ears.

Dec 5, 2013 - 12:29pm

@HeirHelmut Re Kesha

I live in her old neighborhood of Brentwood Tn (S of Nashville). No doubt she was raised with the "staged- let's get some attention" attitude. Most of the fake country music stars, Oprah, Dave Ramsey, Dolly and a host of other "Hollywood type personalities" live here so she is only acting out what she sees run rampant throughout our community with the star types running around here. My oldest daughter goes to high school with her younger brother, the same school Kesha was kicked out of.

May be odd to you that she does this satanic thing, but with Brentwood being one of the wealthiest communities in the U.S (Number 1 based on cost of living in 2010) with all the fake "stars" and all that why she acts like she does is not a all about getting attention...lots of them "sold their souls" around these parts...even good ol Hannah Montana (Miley Cyrus) lived down the road.

Al Gore was pretty close but up the road a mile or so, talk about selling your soul!

Dec 5, 2013 - 12:39pm

well said larry

if JPM begins to dump phyZZ you know it could end at 0.

deaconbenjamin ~~ thank you my man. needed that ;D

Dec 5, 2013 - 1:17pm
Dec 5, 2013 - 2:50pm

Dollar weak in the knees....

And violating support. Crude testing overhead..... Tomorrow had better bring the "right" numbers.

gold slut
Dec 5, 2013 - 3:19pm

@ agNau

Bet my bottom dollar (pound), they will be. EVERYTHING IS FINE AND DANDY, ALL IS WELL, ALL IS WEEELLL....

We just had the Autumn Statement today in the UK. Guess what our Chancellor said?

"Everything is fine and dandy, all is well, all is weeelll...', or words to that effect...

Whitecastle123 gold slut
Dec 5, 2013 - 3:24pm

What a cowinkydink

Obama just yesterday said our future is brighter than our past.

Cocktails for everybody !

Dec 5, 2013 - 3:48pm

Terror..... Any JPM Corp. Customers on the blog? Or more Likely a computer glitch. Seriously check out the list of customers effected by this "attack"!


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 3/18

3/19 10:00 ET Factory Orders (Jan)
3/20 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
3/20 2:30 ET CGP presser
3/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
3/22 9:45 ET Markit PMIs
3/22 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
3/22 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories (Jan)

Key Economic Events Week of 3/11

3/11 8:30 ET Retail Sales (Jan)
3/11 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Dec)
3/12 8:30 ET CPI (Feb)
3/13 8:30 ET Durable Goods (Jan)
3/13 8:30 ET PPI (Feb)
3/14 8:30 ET Import Prices (Feb)
3/14 10:00 ET New Home Sales (Jan)
3/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
3/15 9:15 ET Cap. Util. & Ind. Prod.

Key Economic Events Week of 3/4

3/5 9:45 ET Markit and ISM services PMIs
3/5 10:00 ET New home sales (Dec)
3/6 8:30 ET Trade Balance (Dec)
3/7 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
3/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
3/8 8:30 ET Housing starts (Jan)

Recent Comments

by mistymorning, 3 hours 13 min ago
by Craigo, 3 hours 20 min ago
by Blackwatersailor, 4 hours 34 min ago
by ReachWest, 6 hours 31 min ago
by Clarki Stomias, 7 hours 20 min ago