Black Friday Thread

Fri, Nov 29, 2013 - 10:56am

In the holiday spirit, here's an open freebie.

Just a couple of things....

  • We're obviously watching the open interest numbers very closely. We'll get the official numbers from Wednesday in a few hours. With The Comex only showing about 591,000 ounces of registered gold, things are about to get very interesting.
  • The GLD was pillaged for another 5.70 mts of "gold" back on Wednesday. That's 7 of the last 8 days for a total of 22.50 metric tonnes or 723,391 troy ounces. This could also be stated as 1,808 of these:

  • And here are two, short-term charts. Vaulters can attest that Ole Turd has had a very solid week as we've moved through the expiration process. The lows of Wednesday led to a rally today. I had predicted that we'd go out on the highs of the week and, as of 11:00 EST, I've got a shot! Note that, once again, silver is leading gold by a few days. Silver broke through its month-long downtrend on Tuesday. "Rode" the line back down, using it as support for two days, and now is drawing clear and higher. Gold has finally broken its same down trendline today. Both bode well for a bounce and rally as we enter December.

I'll have a new vault thread this afternoon, once I get a chance to review the final OI numbers from Wednesday. Keep in mind, too, that The Comex closes one half hour early today, at 1:00 EST.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Nov 29, 2013 - 3:42pm

The government can

despite the current anemic economic conditions, Happy Thanksgive to all.

Please enjoy my friend Tim, why ?, because the government can.

Nov 29, 2013 - 3:55pm


I've decided against a podcast this afternoon. Will do one tomorrow morning after I've seen the first round of delivery notices.

Nov 29, 2013 - 4:08pm

Wizened in Oz, good for the family...

Tx Silverflower, another great one to share. Concise, well delivered, and pictures are worth a thousand words.

Swift Boat Vet TF
Nov 29, 2013 - 4:13pm

I was wondering ----

where you went! See you then Turdski.


Nov 29, 2013 - 5:12pm


1) ohio state or michigan ?

2) aurburn or alabama?

Ohio State


Nov 29, 2013 - 5:22pm


Marc Faber: "We Are In A Gigantic Speculative Bubble"

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/29/2013 15:52 -0500

"We have to be careful of these kind of exponentially rising markets," chides Marc Faber, adding that he "sees no value in stocks." Fearful of shorting, however, because "the bubble in all asset prices" can keep going due to the printing of money by world central banks, Faber explains to a blind Steve Liesman the difference between over-valuation and bubbles (as we noted here), warning that "future return expectations from stocks are now very low."


Nope no bubble here...

Along with this pattern...

which has emerged with striking fidelity since 2010, we observe a variety of other features typically associated with dangerous extremes:

  • unusually rich valuations on a wide variety of metrics that actually have a reliable correlation with subsequent market returns; margin debt at the highest level in history and representing 2.2% of GDP (eclipsed only briefly at the 2000 and 2007 market extremes);
  • a blistering pace of initial public offerings - back to volumes last seen at the 2000 peak - featuring “shooters” that double on the first day of issue;
  • confidence in the narrative that “this time is different” (in this case, the presumption of a fail-safe speculative backstop or “put option” from the Federal Reserve); lopsided bullish sentiment as the number of bearish advisors has plunged to just 15% and bulls rush to one side of the boat;
  • record issuance of covenant-lite debt in the leveraged loan market (which is now spreading to Europe);
  • and a well-defined syndrome of “overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yield” conditions that has appeared exclusively at speculative market peaks – including (exhaustively) 1929, 1972, 1987, 2000, 2007, 2011 (before a market loss of nearly 20% that was truncated by investor faith in a new round of monetary easing), and at three points in 2013: February, May, and today (see A Textbook Pre-Crash Bubble).

Many of us in the financial world know these to be classic features of speculative peaks, but there is career risk in responding to them, so even those who view the situation with revulsion can't seem to tear themselves away.

While I have no belief that markets follow any mathematical trajectory, the log-periodic pattern is interesting because it coincides with a kind of “signature” of increasing speculative urgency, seen in other market bubbles across history. The chart above spans the period from 2010 to the present. What’s equally unsettling is that this speculative behavior is beginning to appear “fractal” – that is, self-similar at diminishing time-scales. The chart below spans from April 2013 to the present. On this shorter time-scale, Sornette’s “finite time singularity” pulls a bit closer – to December 2013 rather than January 2014, but the fidelity to this pattern is almost creepy. The point of this exercise is emphatically not to lay out an explicit time path for prices, but rather to demonstrate the pattern of increasingly urgent speculation – the willingness to aggressively buy every dip in prices – that the Federal Reserve has provoked.

silverflower flyinkel
Nov 29, 2013 - 5:50pm

I fully agree.

The charts he is revealing are quite telling.

Really crazy times we are in.

Nov 29, 2013 - 6:26pm

Mindless zombies

All I can say is after hearing all the stories about shopping mobs turning violent and bloody all around the country today...that's about all the proof that is needed to justify the ownership of assault weapons and high-capacity magazines. If these hordes of mindless zombies are already getting this violent over some garbage TV's that are on sale...just imagine how violent they're going to get when crap -really- hits the fan (water, food and power shortages).

SE Doctor J
Nov 29, 2013 - 6:45pm

@ Dr. Jerome - the Prison Problem

First of all, find out what kind of prisoners are there.

Secondly, find out who your neighbors are. Find out if they are armed, and then formulate an appropriate "execution plan" to be carried out in the event of SHTF, depending on the demographics of the prisoners. It would go something like this.

Be prepared to gather en mass not far away from the prison, should SHTF, and send a spokesperson under sniper guard into the prison to notify personnel that the SECOND the prisoners leave the boundary of the prison, they will be dealt with on the spot.

Be prepared to execute them if you have to. Remember what happened to the women in the movie The Book of Eli? If I were living in your area, I'd be the FIRST to knock on your door to help organize this plan.

You should have this plan even for normal jailbreaks in normal times. You've reminded me of an important lesson - find out where the prisons are if you're going to live somewhere, if you have a choice.

Nov 29, 2013 - 8:39pm

HarveyOrgan Blog

I sure hope this is validated by Yurd!

Friday, November 29, 2013 nov 29/A massive 31.6 tonnes of gold is standing at the comex/a rather large 16.95 million oz of silver standing/no change in GLD inventory/no change in gold inventory/gold and silver advance iii) the 3 major bullion banks have collectively only 14.249 tonnes of gold left in their dealer account.(JPMorgan, HSBC,Scotia)

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