Black Friday Thread

Fri, Nov 29, 2013 - 10:56am

In the holiday spirit, here's an open freebie.

Just a couple of things....

  • We're obviously watching the open interest numbers very closely. We'll get the official numbers from Wednesday in a few hours. With The Comex only showing about 591,000 ounces of registered gold, things are about to get very interesting.
  • The GLD was pillaged for another 5.70 mts of "gold" back on Wednesday. That's 7 of the last 8 days for a total of 22.50 metric tonnes or 723,391 troy ounces. This could also be stated as 1,808 of these:

  • And here are two, short-term charts. Vaulters can attest that Ole Turd has had a very solid week as we've moved through the expiration process. The lows of Wednesday led to a rally today. I had predicted that we'd go out on the highs of the week and, as of 11:00 EST, I've got a shot! Note that, once again, silver is leading gold by a few days. Silver broke through its month-long downtrend on Tuesday. "Rode" the line back down, using it as support for two days, and now is drawing clear and higher. Gold has finally broken its same down trendline today. Both bode well for a bounce and rally as we enter December.

I'll have a new vault thread this afternoon, once I get a chance to review the final OI numbers from Wednesday. Keep in mind, too, that The Comex closes one half hour early today, at 1:00 EST.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Nov 29, 2013 - 11:56am

Open interest after Wednesday . . .

is 10,157 contracts. Not sure if that includes the 4,000+ options in the money. Maybe TF can clarify that point.

I understand that all those expecting delivery have to put 100% margin in their account today, so we'll know how things stand after COMEX close and final data release.

Nov 29, 2013 - 12:09pm

Classic spin headline

"Gold jumps, but set for biggest drop in 5 months"

MSM "Hey folks, in case you are interested, don't be". Control freaks, they will not rain on my parade.

Nov 29, 2013 - 12:25pm


AncientMoney, in previous months I have seen the month close with OI outstanding and not enough in the dealer accounts to cover, and nothing seemed to happen. The Comex just ignored that they didn't cover and life went on. They will simply not default until they want to. They hold all the cards, and any players with deals on the table (unless it is a sovereign willing to rattle sabers) are simply not going to have the leverage to 1) get any publicity for what went wrong with their deal 2) do anything about it if it did, because of the legalese in the Comex contract. Anything they [can't cover | don't want to cover] in metal they are legally able to cover with fiat at spot price. Also, very large amounts of OI have a way of mysteriously disappearing on first notice day. I believe the Comex numbers are often whatever they want them to be.


Nov 29, 2013 - 12:25pm

Small town life?

Yesterday after thanksgiving dinner with my 80 year-old mother-in-law and the family, we drove up into the Arizona mountains to a small town to look at the town and a particular 2 acre property with a well.

As we discussed the place we were struck by a couple of important things. First, there is a prison just 7 miles away. If there were an event wherein all the prisoners walked away, I wonder how many of them would head to the hills, right up that creek bed and road to that town. Things could get ugly with a dozen or so escapees roaming around the area. My current lot is only 3 miles away fromteh prison the other direction, down by the river. I am not so sure that is a great place anymore—but at least there are lots of full time neighbors. Second, that mountain town was quiet. Not a single sound of a distant car or any of the usual city or town noises. I liked that. Third, we wondered about the people in the town. Most properties are vacation homes. Really, only a few people live there year-round. Would we like our neighbors? What if the people there mostly keep to themselves. There is no community “pub” where the locals have a beer and sandwich and talk. I bet there are no bingo games. What do people do there besides look at the pretty hills and pan for gold in the creek?

Seems like a person, or family, could get lonely over the long haul living away in a very small town. The prison aside, would I enjoy a self-sustaining life there? I like to be around people. Just thinking this morning.

Now there seems to be a cap on the downside for AU—180 buy orders just waiting down there at 1250 to be filled. I bet we stay in between 1250 and 1254.50 the rest of the session.

Edit: about 70 of those buy orders just filled as AU bounced off 1250 and back up a couple of minutes ago.

DayStarDoctor J
Nov 29, 2013 - 12:28pm

RE: Small Town

Dr. Jerome, the small towns will be all that will survive. The big cities will be heaps of ruins when this is over. You will need a core of brothers to survive, because you cannot be awake 24/7, and you will need more than one defender to hold off gangs.


Nov 29, 2013 - 12:36pm


Daystar maybe you are right and if so i firmly recommend everyone to leave the lunatic goldblogosphere. Enough poor predictions is enough.

I have read for 6 months about a happy ending in 2013. I'm not going to repeat this with a new happy goal.

I will watch prices from a distance. Saves me time and energy. And hopefully in the end i will earn some money or at least gain some back!

Nov 29, 2013 - 12:59pm

Small towns


Perhaps having that prison nearby would make it easier to pre-organize a local community. You are right. The cities will be dangerous and there will likely be gangs everywhere, even in small towns, in a collapse. I tend to forget that little detail.

I wonder what happens with prison security in a prolonged power outage? Will the guards abandon the prison? Can the inmates get out or are they in lockdown without power, starving to death?

You have me thinking and remembering now...

Researchers have found that "average" people have the cognitive capacity to manage about 200 relationships, remembering names, likes, dislikes, personal histories. Beyond that number, we just cannot keep up with the complexity of managing human relationships. Some people can handle more (up to 500) and some less. Traditionally, in primitive sociological settings, a village grows and will divide at 150-200 people. Time to start a new village. Modern society has provided forces that move us beyond that magic 200 level, but it costs the sense of community. Churches also begin losing their personal flavor when they grow above 200. I have heard several pastors talk about 200 members as if it were a glass ceiling. Those churches that grow beyond that number have to compartmentalize social groups and eventually, that wonderful personal sense of community fades out.

So perhaps the very small town, or isolated neighborhood, under 200, would be the ideal place to dig in for the long haul?

nut cutter
Nov 29, 2013 - 1:12pm

turd... please comment on...

1) ohio state or michigan ?

2) aurburn or alabama?

can you comment on the story of china printing 15 tril ?

happy holidays

Nov 29, 2013 - 1:23pm

The News Doctors

Just got on to their web site only to get this:

'Virus/Spyware' Troj/JSRedir-LK has been detected and listed in Quarantine Manager.


Nov 29, 2013 - 1:38pm

China printing 15 trilliion

This has got some attention here recently and was reported in zero hedge somewhere. It is only partially correct when stated as printing currency. The Fed has been monetizing debt by "printing" and purchasing Treasury bonds which increases the supply of base money. The Chinese situation is different since the banks have been issuing "credit" money. This does not increase base money but levers up the supply of credit since the banks retain only fractional reserves.

Simply put the US is running currency expansion whereas the Chinese are running credit expansion.

Subscribe or login to read all comments.


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 2/24

2/25 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
2/26 10:00 ET New home sales
2/27 8:30 ET Q4 GDP second guess
2/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
2/27 11:30 ET Goon Evans speech
2/28 8:30 ET Pers Income and Spending
2/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
2/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 2/17

2/18 8:30 ET Empire St Manu Idx
2/19 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
2/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perms
2/19 2:00 ET January FOMC minutes
2/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
2/21 Fed Goons all day at Chicago Conf.
2/21 9:45 ET Markit flash Feb PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 2/10

2/11 10:00 ET Job Openings
2/11 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk House
2/12 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk Senate
2/13 8:30 ET CPI
2/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
2/14 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
2/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 2/3

2/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
2/5 8:15 ET ADP Employment
2/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
2/5 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
2/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
2/7 8:30 ET BLSBS
2/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 1/27

1/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
1/28 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
1/29 10:00 ET Pending Home Sales
1/29 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
1/29 2:30 pm ET Powell presser
1/30 8:30 ET Q4 GDP first guess
1/31 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
1/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
2/2 10:00 pm ET Chiefs win SB LIV

Key Economic Events Week of 1/13

1/14 8:30 ET CPI
1/14 9:00 ET Goon Williams
1/15 8:30 ET PPI and Empire Fed
1/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
1/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
1/17 9:15 Et Cap Ute and Ind Prod

Key Economic Events Week of 1/6

1/7 8:30 ET US trade deficit
1/7 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
1/7 10:00 ET Factory Orders
1/8 8:15 ET ADP employment
1/9 8:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
1/9 1:20 ET Goon Evans 2:00 ET Goon Bullard
1/10 8:30 ET BLSBS
1/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 12/16

12/16 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Idx
12/16 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs Dec
12/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
12/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
12/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
12/20 8:30 ET Final guess Q3 GDP
12/20 10:00 ET Pers Inc and Spending
12/20 10:00 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 12/9

12/10 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
12/11 8:30 ET CPI
12/11 2:00 pm ET FOMC fedlines
12/11 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
12/12 8:30 ET PPI
12/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/13 10:00 ET Business Inventories
12/13 11:00 ET Goon Williams speech

Key Economic Events Week of 12/2

12/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
12/4 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
12/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
12/5 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
12/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
12/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
12/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Recent Comments

Forum Discussion

by allenb, Feb 25, 2020 - 11:16pm
by Green Lantern, Feb 25, 2020 - 6:49pm
by silverseeker, Feb 25, 2020 - 6:44pm
by mavens, Feb 25, 2020 - 5:42pm
by waxybilldupp, Feb 25, 2020 - 4:54pm