Black Friday Thread

Fri, Nov 29, 2013 - 10:56am

In the holiday spirit, here's an open freebie.

Just a couple of things....

  • We're obviously watching the open interest numbers very closely. We'll get the official numbers from Wednesday in a few hours. With The Comex only showing about 591,000 ounces of registered gold, things are about to get very interesting.
  • The GLD was pillaged for another 5.70 mts of "gold" back on Wednesday. That's 7 of the last 8 days for a total of 22.50 metric tonnes or 723,391 troy ounces. This could also be stated as 1,808 of these:

  • And here are two, short-term charts. Vaulters can attest that Ole Turd has had a very solid week as we've moved through the expiration process. The lows of Wednesday led to a rally today. I had predicted that we'd go out on the highs of the week and, as of 11:00 EST, I've got a shot! Note that, once again, silver is leading gold by a few days. Silver broke through its month-long downtrend on Tuesday. "Rode" the line back down, using it as support for two days, and now is drawing clear and higher. Gold has finally broken its same down trendline today. Both bode well for a bounce and rally as we enter December.

I'll have a new vault thread this afternoon, once I get a chance to review the final OI numbers from Wednesday. Keep in mind, too, that The Comex closes one half hour early today, at 1:00 EST.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


ned braden · Nov 29, 2013 - 10:57am


Top Dog

Down Range · Nov 29, 2013 - 11:00am

Somewhere Behind...and the view sucks!

2nd, turd. or whatever.

Don't forget the gasex

mike97 · Nov 29, 2013 - 11:00am

A Thurd or Secund

Good Call Turd!

seva108 · Nov 29, 2013 - 11:03am

Turd, magic calls

Loving the miners I bought on Wed. 

Non-subscribers, there are a lot of pay sites out there, and I've sampled quite a few. Turd's subscription fee is a bargain.

seva108 · Nov 29, 2013 - 11:08am

Thank you

I didn't design it to be a bank-breaker. 50¢ per day x 20 business days per month = $10/month

Mickey · Nov 29, 2013 - 11:22am


the value of having a community is worth the price of admission-perspectives from turd are icing on the cake.

thing is, a lot of folks not even necessarily in metals merely opine on the direction of the market or bonds or metals--Turd gives background and data and we are all free to intrepret what his work is and how he intreprets it. The nice thing about the community, especially if its a well meaning community is the open discussion about the data and interpretation.

boomer sooner · Nov 29, 2013 - 11:25am

Yeehaw Top 10'ner

Fought the crowds before daybreak and still no 22 ammo. Did see lots of interesting people. Now I see why there is a dentist office on every other corner. Just need to figure out how to get'em in the door.

Nice pop in silver, GSR falling. Maybe see Dagney's call for low 50's. Personally would not mind a quick dive to $15 though.

Does anyone know of any Elk metal. Have not found anything. Need for dad since he can't seem to shoot one!

cavalier · Nov 29, 2013 - 11:31am

Review of America the Beautiful 2013 Coins

The America the beautiful coins are currently cheaper than ASEs for an ounce of silver. There are five ATB coins for 2013: White Mountain; Perry's Victory; Great Basin; Fort McHenry: and Mount Rushmore. I wonder why they designed the five ounce silver coins the way they did. They have a nice image on one side and a Washington quarter image on the other side, which I find ugly on an otherwise beautiful coin. Since they used the same images on quarters I guess someone thought they would save some money, but for five ounces of silver they could have done a lot better.

The White Mountain coin is ok a 5 or 6 on a scale of 1 to 5. People generally refer to them as the White Mountains.

Perry's Victory is lame, the image does not do much for me, a 3.

The Great Basin coin is a very good looking coin. There is a lot of detail on the trunk of the bristlecone pine tree and the rocks have a strong 3d image, an 8 or 9.

The Fort McHenry is a 7 or 8 and presents well. Nice image of the bombs bursting in air.

Mt. Rushmore is ugly, who want to see a guy hanging on a line near George's nose? I would rate as a 3.

These are my opinions of the coins, I'm sure other people have other opinions. But they are nice coins to add to the stack.

ancientmoney · Nov 29, 2013 - 11:40am

Open interest after Wednesday . . .

Harvey reported that after the close Wed. that there were still 33,656 gold contracts standing for delivery. That is 3,365,600 ounces and the dealers have less than 600,000 ounces available. The OI will surely drop, but even if half the contracts roll, 1.6M oz. will be a problem.

In silver, there were 12,443 contracts still standing, or 62,215,000 ounces with dealers having only 44,000,000. Again, even if we lose half of these, the deliveries will decimate what they have for sale.

· Nov 29, 2013 - 11:44am

Thoughts of a foolish trader

I started trading AU in this market again with some "professional help" and it has me looking at the action very closely. On my trading platform, I can see the number of contracts waitn to be executed in the bid stack and the ask stack at the various prices above and below the current price--usually from 6 to 20 contracts at each price level. But at 1254.50-60 there are 90 to 120 sell orders waiting... Looks like a cap to me. Sure enough, since I began typing the price has fallen back a few dollars from that level. 

So I started thinking... if JPM's job is to simply keep the price capped, or to slowly manage it up or down as the cartel desires, then this is clear evidence of that cap. Just a little nudge here and there. Nothing that they can't claim is their normal trading strategy. They keep it in a prescribed range and the BIS can come in at night and slam down the price as they feel the need to make sure the world knows that gold is a lousy an investment.

I am convinced that metals will stay capped and controlled until the system breaks down. Keep buying the dips, my friends.

SteveW · Nov 29, 2013 - 11:56am

Open interest after Wednesday . . .

is 10,157 contracts. Not sure if that includes the 4,000+ options in the money. Maybe TF can clarify that point.

I understand that all those expecting delivery have to put 100% margin in their account today, so we'll know how things stand after COMEX close and final data release.

flyinkel · Nov 29, 2013 - 12:09pm

Classic spin headline

"Gold jumps, but set for biggest drop in 5 months"

MSM "Hey folks, in case you are interested, don't be". Control freaks, they will not rain on my parade.

DayStar ancientmoney · Nov 29, 2013 - 12:25pm


AncientMoney, in previous months I have seen the month close with OI outstanding and not enough in the dealer accounts to cover, and nothing seemed to happen. The Comex just ignored that they didn't cover and life went on. They will simply not default until they want to. They hold all the cards, and any players with deals on the table (unless it is a sovereign willing to rattle sabers) are simply not going to have the leverage to 1) get any publicity for what went wrong with their deal 2) do anything about it if it did, because of the legalese in the Comex contract. Anything they [can't cover | don't want to cover] in metal they are legally able to cover with fiat at spot price. Also, very large amounts of OI have a way of mysteriously disappearing on first notice day. I believe the Comex numbers are often whatever they want them to be.


· Nov 29, 2013 - 12:25pm

Small town life?

Yesterday after thanksgiving dinner with my 80 year-old mother-in-law and the family, we drove up into the Arizona mountains to a small town to look at the town and a particular 2 acre property with a well.

As we discussed the place we were struck by a couple of important things. First, there is a prison just 7 miles away. If there were an event wherein all the prisoners walked away, I wonder how many of them would head to the hills, right up that creek bed and road to that town. Things could get ugly with a dozen or so escapees roaming around the area. My current lot is only 3 miles away fromteh prison the other direction, down by the river. I am not so sure that is a great place anymore—but at least there are lots of full time neighbors. Second, that mountain town was quiet. Not a single sound of a distant car or any of the usual city or town noises. I liked that. Third, we wondered about the people in the town. Most properties are vacation homes. Really, only a few people live there year-round. Would we like our neighbors? What if the people there mostly keep to themselves. There is no community “pub” where the locals have a beer and sandwich and talk. I bet there are no bingo games. What do people do there besides look at the pretty hills and pan for gold in the creek?

Seems like a person, or family, could get lonely over the long haul living away in a very small town. The prison aside, would I enjoy a self-sustaining life there? I like to be around people. Just thinking this morning.

Now there seems to be a cap on the downside for AU—180 buy orders just waiting down there at 1250 to be filled. I bet we stay in between 1250 and 1254.50 the rest of the session.

Edit: about 70 of those buy orders just filled as AU bounced off 1250 and back up a couple of minutes ago.

DayStar Doctor J · Nov 29, 2013 - 12:28pm

RE: Small Town

Dr. Jerome, the small towns will be all that will survive. The big cities will be heaps of ruins when this is over. You will need a core of brothers to survive, because you cannot be awake 24/7, and you will need more than one defender to hold off gangs.


didier DayStar · Nov 29, 2013 - 12:36pm


Daystar maybe you are right and if so i firmly recommend everyone to leave the lunatic goldblogosphere. Enough poor predictions is enough.

I have read for 6 months about a happy ending in 2013. I'm not going to repeat this with a new happy goal. 

I will watch prices from a distance. Saves me time and energy. And hopefully in the end i will earn some money or at least gain some back!

· Nov 29, 2013 - 12:59pm

Small towns


Perhaps having that prison nearby would make it easier to pre-organize a local community. You are right. The cities will be dangerous and there will likely be gangs everywhere, even in small towns, in a collapse. I tend to forget that little detail.

I wonder what happens with prison security in a prolonged power outage? Will the guards abandon the prison? Can the inmates get out or are they in lockdown without power, starving to death?

You have me thinking and remembering now...

Researchers have found that "average" people have the cognitive capacity to manage about 200 relationships, remembering names, likes, dislikes, personal histories. Beyond that number, we just cannot keep up with the complexity of managing human relationships. Some people can handle more (up to 500) and some less. Traditionally, in primitive sociological settings, a village grows and will divide at 150-200 people. Time to start a new village. Modern society has provided forces that move us beyond that magic 200 level, but it costs the sense of community. Churches also begin losing their personal flavor when they grow above 200. I have heard several pastors talk about 200 members as if it were a glass ceiling. Those churches that grow beyond that number have to compartmentalize social groups and eventually, that wonderful personal sense of community fades out.

So perhaps the very small town, or isolated neighborhood, under 200, would be the ideal place to dig in for the long haul?

nut cutter · Nov 29, 2013 - 1:12pm

turd... please comment on...

1) ohio state or michigan ?

2) aurburn or alabama?

 can you comment on the story of china printing 15 tril ?

 happy holidays

Orange · Nov 29, 2013 - 1:23pm

The News Doctors

Just got on to their web site only to get this:

'Virus/Spyware' Troj/JSRedir-LK has been detected and listed in Quarantine Manager.


SteveW · Nov 29, 2013 - 1:38pm

China printing 15 trilliion

This has got some attention here recently and was reported in zero hedge somewhere. It is only partially correct when stated as printing currency. The Fed has been monetizing debt by "printing" and purchasing Treasury bonds which increases the supply of base money. The Chinese situation is different since the banks have been issuing "credit" money. This does not increase base money but levers up the supply of credit since the banks retain only fractional reserves.

Simply put the US is running currency expansion whereas the Chinese are running credit expansion.

nut cutter · Nov 29, 2013 - 1:44pm

steve thx but

which is easier to reel back in ? credit or currency? 

infometron Doctor J · Nov 29, 2013 - 1:49pm

Dr Jerome

Very helpful information regarding Au buy/sell orders! Thank you!

Can you share how it is that you are able to monitor that? Is it public or proprietary?

boomer sooner · Nov 29, 2013 - 1:59pm

@ Dr J

I grew up about 6 miles from the town you describe. We did have neighbors that were pretty close, though. The life was wonderful. Moved away when I went to college and ended up 10 years later moving back. Built a new home on the back of the place. Would still be there now, except I married a city girl (a political science professors daughter no less) and ended up moving to a burb. She did not care for the "private" life. If interaction with people is needed daily, I would have to think hard about what is best. But if the peace and quiet (stars & owls) are in your blood, nothing could be better. An evening sitting on the porch listening to the sounds of the night is very calming. Just put a sign at the gate "CAUTION Open fire range Targets not needed But will not turn away." After posting the sign, put a couple of rounds through it. Visitors will likely call ahead and inmates will more than likely go around.

Down Range · Nov 29, 2013 - 2:15pm

Home Page Button

It would be soooo convenient to have a "Home Page" button at the bottom of all pages ;-)

SteveW · Nov 29, 2013 - 2:32pm

Currency and credit expansion

nut cutter: "which is easier to reel back in ? credit or currency?"

That's a good question likely beyond my pay grade.

If the banks reel back credit by calling loans then that would tend to lead to bankruptcies of the borrowers, allowing the banks to pick up assets for peanuts. So the banks get fat but the economy suffers provided the banks are sufficiently capitalized to withstand the hit of these loan losses. Note most Western banks are overextended by their fractional lending and cannot handle loan losses and are insolvent. This is the mess they've created.

If the Fed reels in the printed currency they do this by selling the Treasuries on their books and destroying the currency they collect. The problem here is they need willing buyers for their Treasuries, otherwise they have to reduce the price. This increases the yield, increases the government's debt service payments on competing newly issued Treasuries and brings government closer to total fiscal collapse.

Bottom line is that neither currency nor credit expansion can be easily reigned in. They are allied components of an exponential ponzi scheme. Keep stacking.

Peoples Front of Judea · Nov 29, 2013 - 2:33pm


When do we get the figures from the Comex .....what time ..thanks

SubjectivObject · Nov 29, 2013 - 2:43pm

The return on not standing

What proportion of the current (or same case past or future) contracts standing for delivery are content to take a premium buy-out in lieu of delivery? If the inside/smart money knows there will be a cash offer premium, how long can they play that game (with their money, or other peoples)?

silverflower · Nov 29, 2013 - 3:15pm

In recent days and weeks....

every strength of the metals has been used to bring the price down again. Signs of a starting rally was short lived. every recovery of the indicators like RSI, MACD Slow Stochastik has been lousy. Wondering whether we can resume an uptrend, but my personal expectation is that we'll see a 3 digit number for gold 1st. I know Turd will disagree, but let's see what happens.

Anybody familiar with that one here ? It's definitely worth watching

Wizened In Oz: ASFA 2013 Presentation. Perth, November 2013

Look, this whole shit will come down one day. And then, boys and girls, run for shelter. These criminal central bankers will not win against mother nature, which in this case is pure arithmetic. And when it ends pure "Angst" (fear)

Grüße aus Deutschland

ReachWest · Nov 29, 2013 - 3:16pm

Anything Exciting Happening?

Just checking in to see if the COMEX defaulted or anything exciting happened. Guess not. I suspect they'll default when all the crooks leave the casino - and not a minute before. After all, it's their little playpen and as long as they can rob and thieve in broad daylight - why stop? Meanwhile - The Fed prints to oblivion - Bitcoin heads to the moon and the metals languish in an algo capped prison cell. This new-normal gives me a migraine.

silverflower seva108 · Nov 29, 2013 - 3:36pm


Don't let him know.

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