Are You in Control of Your Mind While Trading?

Sun, Nov 24, 2013 - 12:02pm

I have a rather thick book in my trading library called “The Futures Game: Who Wins, Who Loses, Why?” It was written by Richard Teweles and Frank Jones and the edition I have here as I type this is the revised edition from back in 1974. What could a 1970s book about the futures markets have that is relevant to the markets of today? I mean – imagine that you worked in the futures business, and took leave of absence ... say you left for a year or two to sail around the world, or “find yourself”, ... when you return and look for employment the interviewing person will say something like this “... you are out of touch, it’s all changed, and all different now, better retire because this is a whole different world”.

Yeah. Right! Whatever you say. But wait! Did he say something that sounded a bit like “This time it’s different”? Well ... maybe he did in a way. Hmmmm!

But I am already beginning to get diverted and ahead of myself. I need to drag it back to that book for a bit. This book was the 2nd edition of the best selling classic “The Commodity Futures Game”. It provided a lot of information about everything in the commodity markets, but the bit I value the most is that it reproduced the results of many surveys of brokers’ client books, the number of winners, losers, the money flow from different classes of traders to and from other classes of traders. That’s vital information! I have discussed the effects of group think in this blog, and I have also discussed the mass hysteria of crowds. Well, if you are in the market and you are a member of the wrong crowd, that could be an expensive mistake! Also, brokers surveys are not so common, and if they are specialized, the big picture might not be visible from them. So I hope to cast some light on this subject today, and maybe provide some hints as to good trading traits which might be worth the getting for people who are involved in this game, or career.

I am going to focus mainly on small traders within the totality of traders, as that is the group most readers will, I think, identify themselves with.

Let me give this quote for a start:

>>>“The Skills of The Trader

The bald unyielding fact is that small traders, as a group, seemingly possess no basic forecasting or special forecasting skill. They hold 46 percent of the value pf all contracts and their gross profits are zero. Substantial losses occur when commissions are included. On the average , then, a small trader has the expectation of losing money – the losses over a reasonable period to equal commissions. It is evident that small traders do not require ... profits to continue trading.

... the needs of some small traders may be met by merely playing the game. Having something that is dynamic and fast-paced to get up for in the morning is so exciting that the trader may be ... willing to risk losing money for the privilege of speculating. Second, traders may continue to trade because they believe they can forecast prices. .... they tend to remember profits and forget losses.

... the small trader may continue to trade because his or her group is amorphous and consists not of a crowd but of a parade. The successful small trader becomes large as a result of competence, whereas the unsuccessful small trader is eventually forced to withdraw from the market and is replaced by new blood.

.... small traders may be convinced that their latest mistake is also their last mistake and that, having learned, there is nothing ahead but smooth sea and blue sky.”

.... On the other hand, small traders have years in which they post impressive profits. ....This performance may well be explained by the tendency of small traders to rely on long-run trend following methods .... which may enable the small trader to reap extremely high profits in years when such trends are of long duration.

But later we see that “Larger traders generally tend to view markets as trading markets rather than trending markets. They may ..... tend to sell certain rallies and buy certain declines.

... It should be emphasized that there is a considerable difference between a winner in any given year and a consistent winner over a significant period of time. .Although the studies .... indicated that a trader in any given year has an approximate probability of one in four of achieving a net profit, the probability of extending his or her supremacy consecutively drops precipitously. Of the 25% who win in any given year, only 2% manage their skills in a consistent manner .... <<<

And about the small traders who succeed?

>>>.. Successful trading is reached, if at all, by following a series of successive approximations. Early in the process ignorance is the rule, and traders know that they know nothing. ... Given enough time, patience, and perseverance, successful traders enter ... a state in which they believe that they know something and no more. In this state they are “inner directed” and not “other directed”. The “other directed” individuals react to what other believe about them ... roles and values ...derived from what their peers expect of them. The “inner directed” individuals hold to the thoughtful courses they set for themselves.

... a viable approach to trading ... only if (decisions) are reduced to principles and followed with great effort. ... The propensity for traders ... good feelings will come as a result of the successful plans that have been conceived and executed by a meticulous, thoughtful trader. .... There is a constant temptation to spill out over the boundaries of the well-defined role of trading.<<<

Although that is “dated” I propose that it gives a good insight into the nature of what faces a trader who wishes to be profitable in the markets of today. We may argue with the percentages, but I think/believe that the overall conclusions are about right.

Now at this stage let me mention a certain idea. If anyone has read “Extraordinary Popular Delusions & The Madness of Crowds” by MacKay (discussed here last week) or “The Crowd” by Gustav LeBon, then a certain concept arises. It’s counterintuitive, but when a trend gets going, and it enters the public psyche, it's end can be forecasted via rational methods. Yet traders, the Banks and market makers sell into 3 std deviations with a wish that it is so. Let’s me be blunt about it. You have to ask yourself “Are they burning witches yet?” Or “Are they breaking the legs of those who dissent yet?” If they aren't, it can go further! Ask “Are they conscripting the social age groups who oppose and sending them to war with no right to speak out yet?” If not: then the trend can go a lot further! But it might stop sooner too.

Now this seems to be all about ideas, and the acceptance of ideas, and not about fundamentals and that might bother some readers. Please read on and I'll make sense of it soon.

This possibility of trends to go further than anyone would believe creates two problems, one for the establishment (market makers) who sold the rally short, but still it goes, and the other for the trader who just wants to make money and avoid losses.

At this stage I would like to introduce Tony Plummer in his excellent book “Forecasting Financial Markets”, now in it’s 6th edition which goes into individuals and crowd conformation and practical implications for traders in some detail.

This comes from Tony’s introduction, the first words in his book:

Making money by trading in financial markets is a formidable task. This is a great truth that is almost impossible for one person to teach to another. It can only be realized by the very act of trading. Accordingly, very few people enter the trading arena with their eyes fully open to the psychological and financial risks. Indeed, they approach markets in the same way that they might approach a lake containing a fabled treasure. They feel that all they have to do is set up appropriate pumping equipment and the treasure is theirs. What they do not realize is that – as in all good fairy stories – the lake has magical properties, designed to protect the integrity of the treasure. Most people who touch the sparkling water of the lake are doomed to be transformed by it: they become treasure protectors instead of treasure hunters.

The problem is that there is an energy in financial markets (and, indeed, in economic activity) that somehow coerces and organizes investors into a single-minded unit. There is nothing sinister in this: it is just nature ‘doing its thing’. However, the force is a psychological one, and it is so powerful that investors do not recognize it until they are finally caught in a disastrous bear market that wipes out months, if not years, of hard work.

The corollary of this is that truly great traders are very rare – only a few have the special clothing that protects them from the secret effects of the lake. Jack Schwager’s books on ‘Market Wizards’ would not otherwise be best-sellers.1 What is it, though, that separates such traders from the rest of us?

If this indicates that trading is not about what learner traders think it is about then I am getting somewhere!

So let me now mention this news item from Zerohedge today :

>>>” Hugh Hendry Capitulates: "Can't Look At Himself In The Mirror" As He Throws In The Towel, Turns Bullish

"I cannot look at myself in the mirror; everything I have believed in I have had to reject. This environment only makes sense through the prism of trends." - Hugh Hendry

First David Rosenberg, then Jeremy Grantham, and now Hugh Hendry: one after another the bears are throwing in the towel.

As Investment Week reports, speaking at Harrington Cooper's 2013 conference this morning, Hugh Hendry said "he is no longer fighting the two-way feedback loop which is continuing to boost risk assets." The reflexive feedback loop envisioned by Hendry is the following and centres on the currency war being played out between the US and China, "in which US QE prompts dollar-denominated investment to head to China, and China fights the resulting upwards pressure on its currency by manufacturing an investment boom. Hendry said this creates a "global supply glut", leading to falling US inflation expectations (as this supply far outweighs US domestic demand) - which in turn prompts the Federal Reserve to loosen policy once again." Rinse. Repeat.

Of course, there is a limitation here as we have explained previously, namely the amount of "high-quality collateral" which the Fed and the other central banks can and are rapidly soaking up, in the process destroying bond market liquidity, but that "discovery" will be made by the Fed far too late, despite even the repeated warnings of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee.

And since Hendry is constrained by daily, monthly and annual P&L, he simply does not have luxury of waiting for the "fat tail" event, which incidentally will be quite terminal and thus hardly profitable for anyone exposed to fiat-denominated assets.

So the end result is that Hugh Hendry is merely the latest bear to throw in the towel:

"I can no longer say I am bearish. When markets become parabolic, the people who exist within them are trend followers, because the guys who are qualitative have got taken out," Hendry said.


Now there is a pattern here I am trying to illustrate. Hendry and his peers know what is the sensible thing for the market to do. But if the market chooses (or is persuaded) not to be sensible, then he recognizes what the maddened crowd of trend following investors/public will do to his career, and hedge fund if he remains in their way.

So what or who is “in charge” of the market we trade to the best of our abilities? I often refer to “the people in charge”. It is not quite the same as “the Powers That Be”, because the powers changes hands more often than many people notice. Indeed many people have great power just for a little moment, but fail to see this, and do not exercise it while they have it. Have you ever had a conversation, and later thought to yourself “I should have said ....” Well that would be a minor example of what I mean.

This has been entirely a psychological discussion so far. But ideas must be executed or nothing happens. I want to look at it all a different way now. Let’s look at some prime movers of price.

A quick observation first: There is a lot of discussion about Bitcoin lately. Bitcoin, I remind readers, has been around for about 4 years, but now it’s the new black, to use fashion vocabulary. Why now? Why so much? Could it be an idea is spreading through the individuals who look at alternative currencies, and they are receptive to it, and some are acting on that receptiveness. I would mention that a Bitcoin today costs the same to “make” as it did last week. But the precious metals have let some of their alternative currency supporters down recently. Maybe these people are looking for an alternative, alternative currency? Has the underlying fundamental situation changed/ No. But the price of gold and silver fell recently. So lets get back to my choice of the word “fashion” above. Could a new fashion be starting? Are the Bitcoin’s new supporters being led? If so, by who or what are they being lead. Every crowd needs a leader after all.

So here are some suggestions as to what may be going on.

The price of gold’s strength has “let down” or disappointed some supporters of alternative currency, and they are switching their allegiance to another alternative currency, Bitcoin.

A low price of gold has an effect upon some traders. Some buy because it’s better value, but others sell because it went down.

The Bitcoin has been “in the news” recently. This represents a marketing campaign for a new fashion, or crowd, and the marketing campaign is creating brand loyalty in new minds, who now have a new leader for their crowd. I hope Litecoin do not buy too much advertising - ooops! I meant news coverage – for advertising would create an alternative brand to Bitcoin. (Is it just a brand? I suppose every national paper currency is a dominant brand)

Wait a minute!

Price change changes traders behaviour.

Price level changes traders behaviour.

Marketing penetration and brand image changes traders behaviour.

Exactly! And that includes you, me, everyone, and our mental processes which before now we thought were rational!

Now go back and re-read what the first quote said about successful small traders!

But if that is the case, why are Hugh Hendry, and the other fund managers switching course?

Why indeed.

Here is a perplexing question:

What if your current beliefs guarantee that you can’t get to where you want to go?

You might be worried about your lack of adequate resources, knowledge, investment capital, training, backup staff and services. These are all things which it is better to have, but the small trader just has to make do with what he has.

But your beliefs? Who or what is in charge of your beliefs?

You better believe me when I tell you this. It’s the price! It’s the brand! It’s the fashion! (OK say trend instead of fashion if you prefer – but why not say “mania” instead).

The role of leadership is completely underestimated by most small traders in my opinion. Mainly because leaders are not always people. They can be things. Totems get used. A totem is what exactly?

Here is Mirriam-Webster’s definition:


noun \ˈtō-təm\

: something (such as an animal or plant) that is the symbol for a family, tribe, etc., especially among Native Americans

: a usually carved or painted figure that represents such a symbol

: a person or thing that represents an idea

That last one is particularly interesting.

Now while we are looking at all this, have a listen to this discussion about modern gods, religions, and people’s beliefs on Youtube by SGTBull07. It will take 5 mins 41s but well worth it imo.

The Gods of the 21st Century

Our trading “game” is now looking anything but straightforward. However I hope that you have gained a fresh insight into your inner motivation in choices of asset from my thinking on this part of “the game”.

Did you ever consider that the price itself could be whispering to you, and your subconscious might be saying: listen to this guy, he’s the leader of our group, and your conscious might be altering your weightings of the factors of importance on the back of all that? It’s worth considering.

Let’s look at a small part of what Tony Plummer said above:

– the lake has magical properties, designed to protect the integrity of the treasure. Most people who touch the sparkling water of the lake are doomed to be transformed by it: they become treasure protectors instead of treasure hunters.

Now consider that a leader of a group, might decide to call the most committed members of his or her group disciples. And extremely committed, or very smitten disciples sometimes can not maintain their degree of comittment, as it is so intense it lasts for a short while as it were. This gives a possibility for disillusionment to set in, often beginning first with these most committed of followers. The prior excess of respect is followed by a bitter sense of betrayal. John Lennon apparently got shot by a disillusioned ex-follower. Recruitment of spies and informants by intelligence and police services is often targeted at similar profile ex-disciple type people .

In the circumstances it is natural that an ex-physical gold "disciple" would become a Bitcoin devotee, almost as a reflex action after gold is discredited in his or her peception. This describes some of what I see in the internet discussion at the moment. Of course, if Bitcoin required greater marketing effort to compete with gold, and gold is being suppressed, that extra marketing which came from certain news services reporting an unexpectedly large and fast rise in the Bitcoin price would be purely circumstantial I guess. Nothing to see there folks.

I hope that this whole subject now has a more specific meaning for readers. But it's effects on one are subtle, subconscious, and above all, emotive based rather than logic based. And not good for trading success.

And so the next time price goes up or down, it might be a little easier to recognize that part within, which wants to “accept the leader”, the part deep down that feels either euphoric or betrayed. Mind you, at the moment you would be in good company, what with all those hedge fund managers and all. A problem remains. They might not drop their card on your table before they quietly leave the ballroom and nonchalantly stroll towards the lifeboats.

Best wishes to all.

Argentus Maximus

The author posts daily commentary on the gold and silver markets in the TFMR forum: The Setup For The Big Trade. More information about the author & his work can be found here: RhythmNPrice.

About the Author


The Doc
Nov 24, 2013 - 12:38pm

I suspect Hugh Hendry is not

I suspect Hugh Hendry is not the only one who is ready to capitulate. All but the most diehard of the diehards appear ready to capitulate in gold and silver and chase the stock market or Bitcoin. If Turd's inbox looks anything like mine, I suspect he would concur. I've never seen so many folks downright angry that they ever invested in metals- fundamentals be dam*ed
Remember Sinclair's advice: Be right, and Sit Tight. Its the sitting tight part that is the hardest in that advice.

If Dave in Denver is right, we won't have to sit tight much longer:

It’s Worse Than You Think!

Something – some kind of “black swan” event – is coming at us that is really ugly.
A few weeks ago a businessman friend of mine asked his neighbor, a retired General with deep ties into the Pentagon, “how bad is it, really (the problems with our system)?” The General replied, “it’s worse than you think.” This retired General thinks that they can’t keep the system going much past 2015.

Mr. Fix
Nov 24, 2013 - 12:39pm

Another set up for war:

Okay, I was just engaging in my Sunday morning news briefing, and was in the process of constructing a picture that seems to imply that the US is preparing for war on multiple fronts.

Lo and behold, a new thread has been presented, and as fate would have it, I landed here first.

Now, just as the case for Civil War, giving Iran nukes, it also appears that we are committing to defend Japan against China.

Here is the link:

By the way,

Argentus Maximus, that was a great post, even if I don't trade. (Love the video)

And this time it is different!

(You do a wonderful job at highlighting exactly what the differences are).

Mr. Fix
Nov 24, 2013 - 12:46pm

Thank you Doc,

It never ceases to amaze me how often “Be right, and sit tight” is overlooked as an obvious strategy.

It takes courage of conviction to hang on tight when the powers that be have created an all out assault on our perceptions, and our beliefs. In a world where “fundamentals don't matter”, it would be easy to mislead many.

Ultimately, fundamentals do matter, a farce can only be maintained for so long.

When this farce finally collapses, the fallout will be epic, but at least those that “sit tight”, will be rewarded for their restraint by not following the herd off a cliff.

Nov 24, 2013 - 1:00pm

We Know Nothing Is Better

I choose to sit tight, we should all know they are trying to scare us out.

Nov 24, 2013 - 1:08pm
Mr. Fix
Nov 24, 2013 - 1:13pm

And the list just keeps growing:

Why Obama Thought He Could Get Away With Obamacare

Editor’s Note: If Obama got away with all this, why not go for it all?

John MacHaffie
November 24, 2013

• $6 trillion in new national debt under Obama…after he promised to decrease the deficit.

The corrupt President Barack Obama.
Credit: Ari Levinson via Wikipedia

• Obamacare — A massive and incredibly convoluted bill which exponentially increases the federal government’s control over our personal lives…which neither Obama nor a single Democrat even read before passing, and which will likely bankrupt the nation.

• In both the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections, the Obama campaign purposely disabled the credit card verification system for its Web site donations, allowing anyone from any foreign country to donate with no limit and no proof of identity; in both elections it was demonstrated that people overseas and people with obviously false identities were able to donate to Obama campaign, in direct violation of several laws. To this day it is not known what percentage of Obama’s campaign funds are illegally obtained, since there is no documentation.

• Billions of taxpayer dollars gambled on “green” companies like Solyndra, NextEra, Ener1, Solar Trust and many others — all of which went bankrupt.

• An intentional refusal to enforce federal immigration laws.

• Unemployment at or above 8% for almost his entire term in office (which was actually closer to 15% actual unemployment).

• Operation Fast & Furious — a government-sponsored illegal gun-running scheme designed to purposely go awry so as to induce public outcry for gun control.

• Spent 20 years listening to a racist anti-American pastor (Rev. Jeremiah Wright), whom Obama described as a mentor. On March 18, 2008, Obama gave a speech in which he said “I could no more disown Jeremiah Wright than I could disown my own grandmother” and “[Wright's church, Trinity United] embodies the black community in its entirety.” Now Obama tries to pretend that Jeremiah Wright doesn’t exist, and that his extremist anti-white philosophy didn’t influence Obama’s worldview.

The actual list is quite lengthy, so instead of hijacking the entire page,

here's a link to the rest of the list:

Nov 24, 2013 - 1:55pm

More Sound Advice

"Just because everyone is doing it doesn't make it right; or, just because nobody is doing it doesn't make it wrong."

Nov 24, 2013 - 2:21pm

Wondering why Iran agreement

Wondering why Iran agreement has only 6 month term? To be able to kill it if debt ceiling and related gold loan negotiation goes Democrat way ( and whom they represent) . Less then 6 months would be impolite, but the real reason is that debt ceiling negotiations may move over February into May when current 6 months agreement with Iran expires.

See how time and stakes are speeding and moving up?

I wonder about Putin's game.. obvious geopolitical gains he may try to make irreversible. I think he is having pleasure to play each side against other where he can influence things and grab the geopolitical influence in places that are dropping out of the West control as they fight internally for mostly Western capital controls. Russia has always been skeptical, earned revolution fort their stance- in 1917. But they also have long memory.

The stakes are- on brinkmanship level- for big banks, the repeat of 1929 deflationary collapse with assets moving to banks..well in 1933 they had to give up gold in FED to be able to carry through. But they stroke back in Europe the same year. For Democrats - liquidation of Israel. Stakes are exceptionally high in this game with the end of USD.

Expect taper from FED after Yellen gets confirmed.

Mr. Fix
Nov 24, 2013 - 2:32pm

Since it's going to collapse anyway…

Jim Rogers Blasts "Abolish The Fed" Before It Self-Destructs

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/24/2013 - 13:37

"The world has consumed more than it produced for more than a decade,"Jim Rogers explains to BoomBust's Erin Ade; but his comments to the leather mini-skirted anchor with regard the actions of the world's central banks bear the most attention. "The world is floating on an artificial ocean of printed money," he blasts,before embarking on a barbaric destruction of the Fed and all it stands for, "the Fed will self-destruct, before the polticians realize what is going on."

sierra skier
Nov 24, 2013 - 3:36pm

Not a Trader

But I love to digest the information here.

Mr. Fix
Nov 24, 2013 - 4:36pm

Is “this time different?” I think so, and here is why:

Taking Stock Of The 21st Century: What's Fundamentally Different

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/24/2013 - 14:56

Anyone suggesting that things are unraveling in fundamental ways quickly encounters a standard reflex response: "same as it ever was."

  • Environmental degradation? Same as it ever was: humans have been trashing the environment for thousands of years.
  • The influence of money in politics? Same as it ever was: money has always been the mother's milk of politics.
  • The dominance of central bankers? Same as it ever was: the banks and the Federal Reserve have been colluding for decades. Income inequality? Same as it ever was: there will always be rich and poor, etc.
  • The rise of the National Security State/Empire? Same as it ever was: Manifest Destiny, etc.

History lessons are all well and good, but this constant refrain of "same as it ever was" is actually a pernicious form of perception management, i.e. propaganda. The desperation is obvious, and so is the agenda: mask the reality that things are unraveling, and that it's no longer "same as it ever was."

Mr. Fix
Nov 24, 2013 - 4:40pm

Here's something that would be unprecedented, (at least here):

Banks Warn Fed They May Have To Start Charging Depositors

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/24/2013 - 15:24

The Fed's Catch 22 just got catchier. While most attention in the recently released FOMC minutes fell on the return of the taper as a possibility even as soon as December (making the November payrolls report the most important ever, ever, until the next one at least), a less discussed issue was the Fed's comment that it would consider lowering the Interest on Excess Reserves to zero as a means to offset the implied tightening that would result from the reduction in the monthly flow once QE entered its terminal phase (for however briefly before the plunge in the S&P led to the Untaper). After all, the Fed's policy book goes, if IOER is raised to tighten conditions, easing it to zero, or negative, should offset "tightening financial conditions", right? Wrong. As the FT reports leading US banks have warned the Fed that should it lower IOER, they would be forced to start charging depositors.

Dagney Taggart
Nov 24, 2013 - 5:04pm

Just a reminder...

1. Pakistan and Turkey are just 2 muslim countries with nuclear weapons

2. Iran and Israel do not share a common border

3. Iran has not invaded another country since the US was still shitting in diapers

4. Iran has about 25,000 semitic jews with the ability to freely leave and a permanent seat in their parliament

5. Iran is a signator of the NPT and has complied fully with it's agreement

6. Israel is not a signator of the NPT and has nuclear weapons

7. Israel has warned for the last 20 years that Iran was 3 years or less from the bomb

8. There is a difference between sunni and shia, between arab and persian

9. There was a US led coup in Iran in 1953 before they took back control of their country in 1979

I sincerely hope every argument made about the pros and cons of this drama show are sensitive to these facts so as to avoid any unnecessary embarrassment. As an Occidental, I've had the privilege of traveling to both Israel and Iran so I would no longer have to rely on the TV to tell me what I should be believing.

Dagney Taggart
Nov 24, 2013 - 5:09pm


Because everything goes boom on 11/4/14 or so I've heard.

PS. What's trading, argentus?

Nov 24, 2013 - 5:19pm


I am not sure about so exact dates, but escalation will happen over February and longer debt ceiling talks where it may come to the point when Israel feels the need to do some action that brings them back into equation. They are now used as bargaining chip from USG/Democrat and their backer side in debt ceiling/gold matters.

They are not known for holding back, especially if action can be coordinated with actions within the USA- otherwise it will make no sense to act. Israel has exceptional ability to coordinate things with the USA congress and otherwise, always has had, and have done many things to push USG into corner when they needed it.

It just shows how high the stakes, or how bad the situation with monetary crisis really is.

Nov 24, 2013 - 5:24pm

If I read it right, the deal

If I read it right, the deal with Iran includes "ability to earn money from gold and precious metals" which in my understanding means Iranians were told to sell gold. Do you agree? USG will go to great lengths to gain even a relatively small amount for sale to keep faith in USD...From JPM long position in COMEX it is clear they are telling Washington that they are 100% ready to stop their gold supression sales of physical and more so, keep the loan from UST ( initiated by BUSH) in gold and not return it in gold.

The test of 6 month agreement is how much gold Iran will deliver during 6 months-there has to be a target. I would think-given latest IMF actions, and BIS - few hundred tons are due.

Quote: While Iran doesn’t disclose gold reserves, its demand for the metal used in jewelry and other fabrication last year was 36.9 metric tons, or 1.4 percent of the global total, according to data from Thomson Reuters GFMS. The Persian Gulf nation probably expanded holdings in 2012 and early this year by taking metal as payment for energy exports, Roubini Global Economics LLC said in a report in May.

Iran had 168 tons declared in 1996. I wonder if they had been able to add.

BTW, while looking for Iran's gold amount I found in 2011 these were last 2 free nations. Now its only one:

Quote: The IMF estimated in 2011 that Brunei was one of two countries (the other being Libya) with a public debt at 0% of the national GDP.
Dagney Taggart
Nov 24, 2013 - 5:40pm

@Dagney I'll let you know


I'll let you know when I get back to doing some! I've been sitting on my hands for so long now its hurting.

11/4/14 ??? Got a link?

Mr. Fix
Nov 24, 2013 - 5:57pm

11/4/14 ???

I just love bold predictions. I'll mark it on my calendar. That day was still free, but it's filling up quickly.

Nov 24, 2013 - 6:04pm

Jim Rogers

Jim Rogers is starting to sound more like Ron Paul every day.

The Demoncraps had 80% of the Jewish vote in the last two presidential elections. It looks like they are about to get another lesson on what happens when you make a deal with the devil. Not that the Repugnants are much different. At least, they aren't "in your face" Marxist....yet.

Nov 24, 2013 - 6:10pm

Challenging article. Maybe I

Challenging article. Maybe I misread but got the impression the gist is if you're into bitcoins you're not in control of your mind?!?! Maybe thats true in a lot of cases. Maybe in my case too

As a small trader I'd be doing much better if gold and silver weren't pulling me down so much. I was much more naive when I first got into metals, but I have no regrets and will continue to add to my metals stack from time to time.. Even if not realised in my lifetime (which I very much doubt), it will be nice to pass on as inheritance.

Theres no bitcoin leader persuading everyone to follow. unless Max Keiser??? I've been into bitcoins longer than him however and certainly am not following him. Price rising is the thing most people take notice of I'd say.

Agree there must be a lot of people as described losing faith in metal and jumping to bitcoins. Arguably with good reason. As I've mentioned several times, there is no futures market suppression of bitcoins possible. However I don't think bitcoins are rising primarily because of the economic mess we so often chat about here. There are totally different fundamentals. Bitcoins are still in a price discovery phase, as rightly pointed out they are less than four years old. Others say tulip bubble type mania. Time will tell I guess. If it is a mania hopefully I'll be taking plenty of profits before the collapse.

Bitcoins has first mover advantage compared to other crypto currency. Even so, biggest threat to bitcoins in my view is a better crypto currency coming along. No not Litecoins which adds nothing original. Peercoins is one I recently heard about though which is interesting me at the moment. Ripples I will avoid like the plauge.

Gold and Silver, I still like but reluctant to keep stacking until they stop going down. A quick look at the charts shows me they are still in bear trend.

Mr. Fix
Nov 24, 2013 - 6:15pm

Chart delay?

I would expect to see some movement on the charts by now, but they are still blank, even though at least according to Kitco, gold was up a couple bucks, and silver was down about $.16, but the charts say nothing at all.


The numbers are going down.

I suppose we now have confirmation in the metals sector that all of the world's problems have been solved.

Nov 24, 2013 - 6:17pm

@Mantis Not necessarily


Not necessarily making the assertion that a move to BTC is a "flee from betrayal" reaction to PMs, but it could be. A cautionary suggestion, no more. Like equities, if the crowd steps onboard, BTC, and equities will go far. But how exhausted are the crowd?

As far as Max is concerned, if he did well with silver, then based on his "form" he should do just as good with BTC, right?

To me, BTC is an intellectual property, like the world's best search engine, or something like that. Valuable until a competitor of worth emerges that has marketing backup to take significant market share. It's just an algo, a software. What is the likelihood a better algo will not appear, and in a money creation business what the chances there will not be powerful backers to push the new competitor brand name? I'd rate it as certainty, but not an overnight prospect, so BTC has a lifespan of unknown length I guess.

Mr. Fix
Nov 24, 2013 - 6:19pm

I keep hearing about this, there might be something to it ;^)



Many of you are aware by now that China has been methodically eradicating the use of the dollar in its bi-lateral trade with most of its largest trading partners. It has put in place large yuan-based currency swaps which are now used to settle trade with most of Asia and some large western hemisphere countries, including France and the UK. You are also aware of the enormous amount of gold that China has been importing and accumulating (LINK, for example). It’s funny how research and investment analysts can find the data to prove this but somehow the World Gold Council and the GFMS seem to be unable to find it.
It looks like China is now getting ready to take the next step in “unplugging” the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency: [Read more...]

Nov 24, 2013 - 6:33pm


My oh my Jewish friends take exception to Israel, as they insist that they are Jewish FIRST, with allegiance to America, not to Israel and most are card carrying liberals.

Dagney Taggart
Nov 24, 2013 - 6:37pm

11 April

Just an obscure date I found here:

Personally, I think yesterday's events might qualify as a peace agreement with 1 party and a broken agreement with another. But what do I know? I'm already on record as repeating what our less well-spoken nutty religious guru said about 20 November+/- being the Trib midpoint.

I don't pay it much attention anymore. The events are beyond our control and we're prepared for just about every scenario short of a quick cataclysm. But why worry about those?

Regarding BTC, can TPTB simply flood the marketplace with dozens of competing cryptocurrencies and destroy confidence by making them into a lottery? It's just as easy as flooding the market with naked paper gold contracts. Sorry Max. Only gold and silver are money.

Nov 24, 2013 - 6:43pm


Indeed. They still send lots of money to Israel. Many US Jews have dual citizenship which makes me wonder. Rabid liberals make me wonder as well. Most of your Jewish friends must be among the 80% I spoke of.

Nov 24, 2013 - 6:47pm

Hmmm . Comets! On planetary

Hmmm . Comets! On planetary duration cycles - if there is to be a "big one" I would prefer to consider the Uranus square which is about now, or any time for 2 months to come. Uranus is an 80 year event, and the 1929 top was the last time for this one. That's of course if the 1929 crash happened because of the Uranus cross, instead of happening coincidentally with it! We shall see. However retail brokers margins are very high already.

... the rest of the weather will be fine with isolated showers and possibility of overnight frost.

Nov 24, 2013 - 6:51pm

Rothschilds’ Bank of

Rothschilds’ Bank of America

by Dean Henderson, Left Hook:

(Excerpted from Chapter 6: Bank of Crooks & Criminals International: Big Oil & Their Bankers…)

The NSC was funneling arms to the Nicaraguan contras before Oliver North’s resupply network was operational. US aid to Saudi Arabia was being forwarded to the contras via the Karachi, Pakistan-based Bank of Credit & Commerce International (BCCI). [1]

While House of Saud-bound money was being diverted towards the contras, one of BCCI’s biggest initial depositors was the Shah of Iran, whose Swiss BCCI accounts were bulging.

With the ruling families of the Nixon’s “Twin Pillars” on board, BCCI would become the mixing bowl into which Persian Gulf petrodollars were stirred with generous helpings of drug money to finance worldwide covert operations for the CIA and its Israeli Mossad and British MI6 partners.

Read More @

Nov 24, 2013 - 6:52pm


I love prophecy! Thanks

Mr. Fix
Nov 24, 2013 - 6:54pm

Is trading on the position of your anus a viable strategy?

Whoops, my Dictate program really screwed that one up.


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