Review - “Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds” by Charles MacKay

137
Sun, Nov 3, 2013 - 12:06pm

I have a necessary library of trading and market related books, both in printed and electronic form. To do things I believe that you need to allocate resources. For investing, one resource is, obviously, money or capital to invest or trade with.

Other things can be equated with money, for they have difficulty in the getting. Power is one – it can be used to seize money from those who have it. Another is knowledge, for with knowledge money can be made or created. A third primary resource is time. It takes time for all things to happen, time to gain power, even a HFT algorithm requires a small amount of time to carry out it’s instructions, and it takes time to learn knowledge.

I’m talking of knowledge today. This is the first of a series of book reviews which more or less could be called my own Recommended Reading List for Traders and Investors. It’s personal and some famous works will be left out, and I assume some minor works will come as surprises, as the prioritization is my own and based on my personal experiences and thoughts.

I had an inner debate about whether the #1 slot should go to MacKay or Lefevre/Livermore, but MacKay wins out because his work transcends trading, or even markets. It is a study of humanity. I expect everyone would benefit to a certain degree from reading this.

Oh, I should mention – Charles MacKay wrote it in 1841. That’s 172 years ago, 50 years after the French revolution, and 20 years before the American Civil War was to be fought.

I add at this point that I have three volumes of this book in my personal collection: A 1980 facsimile of the original, 724 pages in length, an electronic one, and also a new compact (abridged) hardback edition from Harriman House of 2003, 115 pages, and reprinted several times since. So this is an investment classic and still in very high demand, hence the reprints. The main difference between my two paper editions, apart from weight, is that the recent compact volume contains the financial bubbles whereas the original full text describes these however it also recounts other historical manias not related to finance like Fortune-Telling, Duelling, Haunted House, Poisoning and other manias.

I’ll stay with the compact volume for this review seeing as it will be read by investors and traders in the main. The illustrations are representative of my quirky thought process and not intended to be manipulative or imposing a political view. They are merely chosen to transcend the time of writing of the excerpted texts visually.

So what book written back then could be so pertinent today? I must get out of the way and let Charles MacKay's words speak for themselves. Here are some quotes from the first section about John Law and the Mississippi Bubble. You can judge for yourself.

Early on his wisdom was noticed and discussed in the media:

All the small poets and litterateurs of the day poured floods of adulation upon him. According to them, he was the saviour of the country, the tutelary divinity of France; wit was in all his words, goodness in all his looks, and wisdom in all his actions.”

Real assets were sucked in while paper was issued to acquire these items of value:

... It was remarked at this time that Paris had never before been so full of objects of elegance and luxury. Statues, pictures, and tapestries were imported in great quantities from foreign countries, and found a ready market.

All those pretty trifles in the way of furniture and ornament which the French excel in manufacturing were no longer the exclusive playthings of the aristocracy, but were to be found in abundance in the houses of traders and the middle classes in general. Jewellery of the most costly description was brought to Paris as the most favourable mart;”...

The wealth effect is described so well, as is the link between the Sovereign Ruler and Financier:

“...Thus the system continued to flourish till the commencement of the year 1720. The warnings of the parliament, that too great a creation of paper money would, sooner or later, bring the country to bankruptcy, were disregarded. The regent, who knew nothing whatever of the philosophy of finance, thought that a system which had produced such good effects could never be carried to excess. If five hundred millions of paper had been of such advantage, five hundred millions additional would be of still greater advantage. This was the grand error of the regent, and which Law did not attempt to dispel. The extraordinary avidity of the people kept up the delusion; and the higher the price of Indian and Mississippi stock, the more billets de banque were issued to keep pace with it.

On astute individuals hedging to protect against the inflationary loss this next quote reads like it was written both next year and in the 1930s, some 92 years after Mackay published his book:

“ ... In February 1720 an edict was published,

which, instead of restoring the credit of the paper, as was intended, destroyed it irrecoverably, and drove the country to the very brink of revolution. By this famous edict it was forbidden to any person whatever to have more than five hundred livres (20l.) of coin in his possession, under pain of a heavy fine, and confiscation of the sums found. It was also forbidden to buy up jewellery, plate, and precious stones, and informers were encouraged to make search for offenders, by the promise of one-half the amount they might discover. The whole country sent up a cry of distress at this unheard-of tyranny. The most odious persecution daily took place. The privacy of families was violated by the intrusion of informers and their agents. The most virtuous and honest were denounced for the crime of having been seen with”

And that is just the section about John Law!

I do not wish to spoil with excessive quotation, only two more, but the sections about the South-Sea Bubble and the Tulipomania are just as archaic distant history, and at the same time they describe exactly what is going on around us today in our Central Bank- Politician-Banking controlled present day world.

So to finish this review, I excerpt two short and memorable pieces – first from Charles Mackay’s 1st 1841 edition and another from his preface to the edition of 1852, written 160 years ago: “... millions of people become simultaneously impressed with one delusion, and run after it, till their attention is caught by some new folly more captivating than the first. We see one nation suddenly seized, from its highest to its lowest members, with a fierce desire of military glory; another as suddenly becoming crazed upon a religious scruple; and neither of them recovering its senses until it has shed rivers of blood and sowed a harvest of groans and tears, to be reaped by its posterity.” .....

Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.”

And that last passage, Dear Reader, is as up to date as they come. If there is a"required reading list" for investors and traders, this text which has endured nearly two hundred years and still remains so appropriate to modern life's financial intrigues surely deserves the number one position on that list.

Resources:

Publishers' Page for this book: https://www.harriman-house.com/book/view/556/investing/charles-mackay/extraordinary-popular-delusions-and-the-madness-of-crowds/

Available in printed, and electronic versions

Argentus Maximus

.

The author posts daily commentary on the gold and silver markets in the TFMR forum: The Setup For The Big Trade. More information about the author can be found here: RhythmNPrice.

About the Author

  137 Comments

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mac
Nov 4, 2013 - 4:36am

Tip! Willie says: "The

Tip!

Willie says: "The agreements have already been made on the new Gold Trade Settlement system with its newly imposed Gold Trade Standard. They have agreed on a $7000/oz gold price, with a similarly exalted silver price of at least $250/oz.
Decisions have been made final. The implementation is slow but steady."

Ok, what agreements and with whom? just spewing this stuff with no evidence is not acceptable to my intellect.

"decisions have been made final" - Really, by whom...we let Willie run all over and shrug it off? saying hey! this guy has a track record. I have been reading Willie for approx 7 years. I used to subscribe. But this latest meme is way over the top in credibility, and ruined my weekend thinking the Gold community was following this, supporting this and giving a free pass t0 a $7000 gold call because Dr Willie said so and he must be respected?

I have been reading Dr Willie for years and I used to subscribe as well. I have been in PM's for 11 years and was a stock broker in the early 80's.

Willie is lumped in with Karen Hudes by Harvey Organ cuz they both make outrageous claims of massive and hidden gold stashes around the world (Vatican, Hawaii).

Boswell
Nov 4, 2013 - 4:11am

More Free Book Downloads

Don't have a Kindle, so I found this site with the book in many different formats...

https://manybooks.net/titles/mackaych2451824518-8.html

AlienEyesOccasnltrvlr
Nov 4, 2013 - 2:22am

re: My Dear Brethren

Non ! Non ! Oh, contraire !

I got some writing advice in college and I still consider it the best advise available, especially when one considers the institutional "dummying down" of our educational system and "social promotions".....

"Tell them what you are going to tell them. Then tell them. Then tell them what you just told them."

Karankawa
Nov 4, 2013 - 1:50am

Mr. Fix on November 4, 2013 - 1:39am

I think your ramble was well stated. Everyone searching for the truth eventually arrives at the same location. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GIMiKBbdGzo The only 'security' we have as a nation at this point, is the people that still respect the truth.

ButchCassidy
Nov 4, 2013 - 1:38am

Excuse me for interjecting, but

can someone post that chart again that compares gold lease rates to the Fed funds rate? The one that shows them both to be basically identical?

I didn't save them when they were posted here when backwardation first appeared in September, and can't find them now.

Thanks.

Just A Regular Guy
Nov 4, 2013 - 1:34am

Irony?

Ok so the ECB decision to change / stand-pat on interest rates this week is going to be key for gold (USD strength/weakness as a function of EU strength/weakness).

Interestingly this is the headline running on BloomBerg at this point in time:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-04/gold-bug-schiff-counters-goldm...

Wow? A Peter Schiff was right gold headline???
Interesting!

Take care guys/gals.

Mr. Fixredwood
Nov 4, 2013 - 1:05am

redwood

The “good guys” have been monkey hammered every step of the way, in every field of endeavor, for the past few years. In many fields, it no longer pays to show up for work, it's more profitable to go on the dole.

Talking economic fundamentals has been a pursuit in futility, since the ability to manipulate all markets has astounded people who have watched them for a lifetime.

After a while, of course it has a hollow ring, how many years can you predict an “imminent economic collapse”,

without completely undermining your own credibility? It's hard to listen to, and after a while, absolutely nobody wants to hear it anymore.

Personally, I think that is exactly what the Evil Empire has intended, because as they are closing all the exits, and literally leaving no way out, the people who are predicting a collapse are exactly the ones they want ignored.

Very few have expected this "end game" to continue for as long as it has, quite frankly, I'm exhausted.

I expected our current president to destroy the United States, and to effectively be the last president.

I expected him to accomplish this in his first term, who could have reasonably predicted that he'd be reelected?

It wasn't until his first presidential debate (2012) that I realized that the election was completely rigged, and that this slow-motion train wreck could conceivably extend for another term.

Of this I am certain of, president Obama will do everything he can to destroy the US, and take down Western civilization in the process.

His own definition of a “successful presidency” will be the annihilation of United States.

Every single action he has taken since day one supports this theory, so I'm going to have to give some of the “good guys” just a little bit of leeway, as they interpret the current situation.

Plus, the longer he lasts (Obama), the more damage he can do. At least in theory, he's got a solid three more years to screw things up as much as possible, so why would he forfeit any of his time?

(Yes, I'm giving him too much credit, it obviously belongs to his puppet masters, but I digress).

I only listen to “the good guys”, because the rest of them are counterproductive.

I take what I need, and I leave the rest, their reporting on the current circumstances is excellent, even if their forecasts leave something to be desired, when everything is rigged, that's what you get.

Now I really am too tired to continue babbling,

good night.

Mr. FixOccasnltrvlr
Nov 4, 2013 - 12:15am

@ Occasnltrvlr

That is great advice, I'll see what I can do, but getting to the point has never been within my area of expertise.

The fact of the matter is, most of my posts are completely pointless.

Reply to:

My Dear Brethren

redwood
Nov 4, 2013 - 12:12am

Mr. Fix

Thankfully I haven't paid any attention to KWN for at least the last year and half and while years before that, the site influenced my trading, it certainly hasn't for some time. Ditto for Sinclair and others I've mentioned.

But others have and that's what bothers me. The interpretation of the message is essentially my point. To insist that metals are going to the moon has not only affected traders, it has most importantly affected stackers , the key group these wise men apparently have been trying to influence. Anybody who bought the metals at double their current price for silver and and a third of the price more for gold have essentially been snookered, irrespective of where the metals are headed. 100% increase is still a 100% increase, since ultimately this is always a percentage calculation and metals will not stay elevated forever once they get there. And gold in particular is not cheap for the regular guy who should have it in his possession. That's what's wrong with listening to the good guy, if you don't understand what the good guy may potentially represent. I got tired of their song and dance a long time ago because after a while it had a hollow ring.

Occasnltrvlr
Nov 3, 2013 - 11:56pm

Does Anyone...

...on God's Earth, think they have any defense against this?

Visual Dreams (Intel Collaboration Song) _ MusicVideo

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