Are You Buying Silver Today?

182
Thu, Oct 31, 2013 - 10:07am

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daveyboy
Nov 3, 2013 - 1:27pm

So there are 2 things

So there are 2 things mentioned there, one is the fact that Jim Sinclair is now promoting a new exchange and urging said reader, or said listener to hold their metals outside of the U.S at a bargain of only 5% per year. That is extortionate and is coupled with hyperbole, why the hell would the authorities want to confiscate? There are all sorts of antiques which people hoard which are far more valuable monetary wise and in fact should there really be a hyper inflation it will be all relative. There is no need to grab the Gold that is unless you really believe that the powers that be will be go back to a gold standard which to me appears like a pipe dream.

Secondly the point you are raising about JPM, who is the buyer of the short position? could it be that this is the internal machinations of banks? This point is one I am raising based on the supposition made that the intention is to hold down the price. If this supposition is true, then it would be a great psychological operation to play on the resistors who see this as the green light to buy silver and then 6 months later, 12 months later despair when the price goes nowhere. If you were to contrast this to 2010 and 2011, the hedge funds were piling into silver and even the little guy was playing the market riding the wave of up movement but then the margin calls crushed the gamblers and I am sure the hedge funds got badly burned. There have been a flurry of hedge funds which gone bankrupt in the last 2 years and whilst not inextricably linked to the metals, it does then dampen down the funds flowing into the market.

Which again takes us back to the physical, despite the realisation that even the public has that things are getting worse, people are more inclined to then hoard cash. The physical demand has not overwhelmed supply, something which we can see in both the availability of the metal (silver) and in the very low premiums. When an anonymous source reports that x refiner is out of silver, it only serves to deflate the hype as people have heard it all before. It's not inflation when people's incomes are being sucked dry and their pension funds being raided. Yes, we have had an increase in price in foods and energy but the former especially is also in an obvious bubble. That is not to say that it is a bubble which can't last for some time of course and meanwhile with additional taxes being piled on top, there is even less disposable income.

As for America losing it's world reserve currency status. there are so many dollars out there worldwide that it's going to take years and years, perhaps a decade? for the brics to be in any kind of a position to simply dump the dollar. I am just throwing a number out there but even Jim Sinclair says the great reset won't be until 2020 and I look at his agenda and realise that he will promote what he wants his listeners to hear.

Even at the more positive end of the spectrum, we are probably looking at finishing the year below $20 and even if the cost of production continues to rise and we have a relatively strong rise of 10% then we will probably finish 2014 at a little over $24. I have listened at nauseum to Jim Sinclair, Martin Armstrong, Jim Willie, David Morgan. The latter of which predicted a rise to $26 but clearly he is retracting even if not directly when he displays an article written by an analyst who forecasts a possible fall to $15. I don't think the downside will amount to that but I just don't see a lot of upside in this market either. This bear market continues and it is what it is, any investment is a risk and any weak currency can become considerably more weakened. Those who swapped rupees for Gold appreciate the security that brings, once again the difference between a hedge and so called true money.

Interestingly Sincalir says 3500 in a decade, Jim Willie says 7,000, Max Keiser and Martin Armstrong say 5,000. Sinclair then suggests 50,000 but that is a meaningless figure if there really is hyper inflation but I think that the notion of hyper inflation is baseless. Hyper inflation was meant to take hold in 2011, then in 2012, then in 2013. If you look at the velocity of money it's actually going lower so despite Mr Williams insistence, I am going to say he will be absolutely wrong yet again. The problem is with many of these forecasters they can't take back what they have already stated and look to either cover up their spectacularly failed predictions or simply never mention them again.

Having said that of course, let's take that 3,500 for what it is, a rise of just over 10% a year, that could come to fruition. What is bemusing of course is that if silver takes a similar path then from where it is now, that will put it around $50 in ten years time (admittedly this doesn't take into account of rising production costs) but for arguments sake let's assume another $20 rise on top. Which will bring silver to $70 and while you may challenge this as conjecture, then indeed it is, but so are the predictions provided by the many. Mike Maloney for instance uses the supposition that silver will rise because Gold will be perceived to be too expensive.

Now, you could use this as a contrarian indicator and cite the fact that such lack of enthusiasm indicates that a move is just around the corner but I would suggest that you know that the bull is dead (in a velocity sense) when traffic has crashed on this site, even when silver sales in America have started to fall in recent months. Granted, they are still quite strong but they don't really tally with panic and my thesis is that a slow and inevitable path downwards has been accepted, the likes of Chris Duane's meme of a new group of people (silver buyers) will emerge after the shadows have been lifted has been dismissed and now steady buying accompanies silver on a monthly basis as the core buyers continue to purchase as insurance.

Still, 10% is a good growth figure, but we are starting off now from such a low that the 10% is somewhat optimistic, it may be in later years that it averages out to the 10%. This is why most of these so called analysts I just tune out or view as entertainment purpose only because a lot of what they are blowing is hot air. This either feels like desperation on the side of some of these in the silver market or they have disseminated stories about the u.s mint running out of blanks to cause a quick flutter which is followed by the rebuttal which further discredits them. I still don't know which one is more likely but when you have the son of Rothschild's stooge being held aloft as a champion of the cause then I would favour that the operation is to largely discredit.

As a final note, I am pretty sure that Jim Sinclair did not voluntarily step out at the beginning and explain his family's ties between the Rothschilds and his family. That admission has likely only come about because of the research which has been done into him.

Motley Fool
Nov 2, 2013 - 12:18pm

re: above

Nevermind. The above is skewed by chinese law that all mined and imported gold must be sold on SGE. This skews the data and no such inference can be made.

Motley Fool
Nov 2, 2013 - 10:24am

OT

Those asians, they will save us, they will buy up all the silver and send the price sky high.

https://twitter.com/KoosJansen/status/396640434916966400

..or maybe not. :P

Motley Fool
Nov 2, 2013 - 8:14am

for those who care

'In total, only about 500 tonnes were “confiscated.”'

from

https://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/08/confiscation-anatomy-part-2.html

Kcap
Nov 1, 2013 - 9:30pm
ancientmoney
Nov 1, 2013 - 3:05pm

@SilverRunNW re: my assumption . . .

"Just because I didn't mention how absurd and precedent setting that event was, doesn't mean I "lose sight of this important fact."

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Fair enough. I stand corrected.

It just seemed to me you were discounting the fact that all gold the government owns or ever owned was and is the people's gold, whether directly taken from the people's wallets, or via any other method obtained.

I now know I misread your intent.

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SilverRunNW
Nov 1, 2013 - 2:26pm

@ancientmoney

"However, during this period, the Constitution had not been amended, and the gold taken in by the government was still the people's gold. You seem to lose sight of this important fact."

How you make this assumption of me losing sight on important facts is making a wrong assumption. How you read into that, I have not a clue. I just focused on the numbers. Just because I didn't mention how absurd and precedent setting that event was, doesn't mean I "lose sight of this important fact.".

Sheesh!

ancientmoneySilverRunNW
Nov 1, 2013 - 1:29pm

@SilverRunNW re: confiscated gold . . .

I would agree that a 10,000 ton increase happened between 1935 and 1940, after the 1933 confiscation. This was likely payment from our allies for war materials prior to and into the start of WWII, as we ran a trade surplus in those days.

However, during this period, the Constitution had not been amended, and the gold taken in by the government was still the people's gold. You seem to lose sight of this important fact.

So, whatever gold the government had taken in, by whatever means, still belonged to the people, whose taxes were used to run the government, which government (in the U.S.) WAS the people.

Now, when the U.S. started running deficits in the later 1950's and 1960's and France and other countries demanded gold in exchange for the dollars they had earned, this was legitimate loss of gold. It was legitimate because although stupid, the people who elected the fools who caused the deficits through popularly-accepted "guns and butter" policy, got what we deserved.

So, in reality, to be fair, it is the remaining, claimed 8000 tons that appear to have been stolen from the people.

buzlightening
Nov 1, 2013 - 1:07pm

Latest Bix Weir. Tick Tock Kaboooooom

Everybody in the financial world knows what's about to happen...and they are openly preparing for the MOTHER of all CRASHES! Central banks Make Swaps Permanent As Crisis Backstop https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-31/ecb-makes-crisis-cash-lines-at-central-banks-permanent.html "Central banks in advanced economies from the U.S. to Europe and Japan said emergency currency-swap lines established during the global financial crisis will be made permanent, providing safeguards against future turbulence. " This "swap window" will allow the fire hoses of money to flow freely very soon with every nation in the world trying to put out the FLAMES of the Global Monetary Implosion. If this flow of free money works to save the system you will see $10,000 gold and $1,000+ silver almost instantly. If it doesn't... I doubt gold and silver will even be traded on any "exchange" anytime soon as EVERYTHING in the electronic financial system will have been destroyed. Should be a very interesting time for mankind. I have laid out my Timeline for the events to unfold in the Friday Road Trip here:

Timeline on the Road to RootA


https://www.roadtoroota.com/members/794.cfm Watch for some more bank closure announcements very soon...maybe tonight? May the Road you choose be the Right Road Bix Weir www.RoadtoRoota.com
SilverRunNW
Nov 1, 2013 - 1:04pm

@ancientmoney

"It really doesn't matter whether the entire 25,000 tons, or whatever amount the government held, was a direct confiscation."

In a sense, I agree that it really doesn't matter. Those historical facts are ones I use when trying to explain to the uninformed about what has happened in the past, and why they need to take action now. It's best to be accurate on historical facts, lest someone call you on it and throw out your whole thesis, whatever that may be.

My goal wasn't to challenge you, it just made me curious how much might have been confiscated. That just lead me to this, unfortunately from the World Gold Council, but hopefully it's fairly accurate. https://www.gold.org/download/pub_archive/pdf/Rs23.pdf

According to this WGC report:

1920 - 3679.29

1925 - 5998.19

1930 - 6358.00

1935 - 8998.00

1940 - 19543.30

1945 - 17848.00

1950 - 20279

1955 - 19331

1960 - 15822

1965 - 12499

1970 - 9839

1975 - 8544

There was a huge jump between 1935 (8998) and 1940 (19543). So the confiscation happened in 1933. How long did it take for the US Treasury to collect, count, and update their inventory, I don't know. But that's a big jump! So did it take 2 years for this gold to show up in the accounting, or does some other event account for this? I don't know. I didn't read the report yet, only looked at the table, and it may not say either.

IMHO, looks to me like it was the confiscation and my thoughts of WWII rebuilding only netted 2,400 tons.

So, in 1957 we had 20,312 tons of gold and after that, it was nothing but downhill. The tables in the report aren't that granular until after 1950. Prior, it only reports in 5 year increments.

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