Are You Buying Silver Today?

Thu, Oct 31, 2013 - 10:07am

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Bron Suchecki
Nov 4, 2013 - 10:23pm

I've added this to the bottom

I've added this to the bottom of my post:

Correction Nov 5th: After a discussion about this post with TF (see here, here and keep scrolling) I would like to clarify that I didn't intend to mean that TF's "keep stacking" was trading advice. My intent was to say IF you were a trader then you may have read his post as bullish. TF also noted that he was not following the comments on the original post, hence he missed by comments, so it was not a case of not listening.

I will also give props to TF for publishing my comments, which is more than I can say for some bloggers who remove comments that are critical of them.

Bron Suchecki
Nov 4, 2013 - 10:06pm

When I said "So if you were a

When I said "So if you were a trader, TF's advice to "keep stacking" on the basis of the unusual CME delivery figures was actually backwards - it was possibly a sell signal." I wasn't trying to say your were giving trading advice, just that IF someone was a trader they'd read your post as bullish. I will make a correction to my post to clarify.

I think the 10 tonnes are excess kilo bars JPM couldn't sell into Asia for enough premium, but that is just an opinion as I don't know for sure. The key it to keep an eye on the numbers and see if those .000 round figures show up on the way out.

Bron Suchecki
Nov 4, 2013 - 9:00pm

Bron, you're exhausting

In case you didn't notice, here's a reminder. The post that has you so concerned began this way:

"This latest move is so brazen in its audacity, even I am stunned. But, since no one else is talking about it, maybe I'm just crazy. Let me lay it out for you and you can decide for yourself."

So, where you get the idea that I'm misleading people with facts and proof is beyond me. I'm just a guy with an opinion and most people realize that. From the public disclaimer on TFMR:

All content at this website is presented for educational and/or entertainment purposes only. Under no circumstances should it be mistaken for professional investment advice (because it is, most assuredly, not), nor is it at all intended to be taken as such.

The commentary and other contents simply reflect the opinion of the author alone on the current and future status of the markets, various economies and world events. It is subject to error and change without notice. The presence of a link to a website does not indicate approval or endorsement of that web site or any services, products, or opinions that may be offered there.

That said, I suppose you have a point. Though I don't make it a practice to include other's opinions in my post, in this case, I'll make an exception. Give me a minute and I'll posthumously include your opinions as a counter-balance. Perhaps you might also consider editing your post for the factual errors included such as claiming that "stacking" is "trading advice". That sounds curiously like a deliberate attempt to disparage my site and my business...but I digress.

Thanks again for all your input.

Bron Suchecki
Nov 4, 2013 - 8:36pm

The point of your post was

The point of your post was that you had found proof and "knew for certain" that the numbers reported were false because the numbers were statistically impossible. That is what is wrong with your post.

While your readers may have moved on, they now believe that you proved the numbers were false. They will then offer this up on other forums and blogs as proof in the future. People who search google for CME gold stocks report will read your post and believe you proved it. It will get repeated and become accepted as fact that the delivery figures have been proven as false.

What disturbs me is you don't seem to care about correcting this, that you are happy to have people think your opinion the delivery figures are false is a fact when it is just an opinion. You talk about the cartel being "deliberately opaque" but by letting this ride you are showing you don't care about an informed market and facts and making sure people are clear about what is proven facts and opinions.

Bron Suchecki
Nov 4, 2013 - 7:46pm

It's not statistically impossible. It is however, unlikely.

It's not statistically impossible. It is however, unlikely.

A more interesting angle, if you're right, would be why is JPM taking in 7,000 1-kg bars into their eligible account over three days in October? We can save that for another day, I suppose. Only worth the mental energy if we knew for certain that the numbers reported were factual and accurate and actually represented 7,000 1-kg bars, not just simple bullshit.

As for amending the post from two weeks me, it's not worth the effort. Hardly anyone bothers to read posts older than about a day, myself included. You seemed to get all worked up because I wasn't responding on a thread that was several days stale. Next time, if you want to reach email, instead.

Bron SucheckiTF
Nov 4, 2013 - 6:55pm

maybe you're right, maybe you're not

TF, which of these do you think are facts and which are opinions one could be right or wrong about:
1. Comex rules allow for 1kg bars
2. A 1kg bar weighs 32.15oz
3. 32.15 x 6000 = 192900
4. 192900 is therefore not statistically impossible

I'm not looking for an apology, but I think given the above facts, your original post requires a note to inform future readers that while you think Comex stocks are "bullshit", the round 192900 figure is possible and can't be used to prove the stocks are "bullshit".

You are correct, the Perth Mint does offer unallocated and pooled allocated. As we are not a bank, don't lend gold and those accounts are fully backed I'm not sure what your point is.

Nov 4, 2013 - 2:46pm

Silver Is Correcting To Near

we should see a push up to near 25-26 followed by a substantial move down to well below 19

nothing wrong with owning "phyz", but price is high

Bron Suchecki
Nov 4, 2013 - 8:15am

Hi, Bron!

Unless I am again uninformed, your company does, in fact, offer unallocated and pooled accounts.

Regardless, as it pertains to your original point, maybe you're right, maybe you're not. No one knows for sure. If you're expecting some type of apology where I grovel at the altar of Screwtape for forgiveness, it won't be forthcoming.

Visit the FAQ page to learn how to track your last read comment, add images, embed videos, tweets, and animated gifs, and more.

Spartacus Rex
Nov 4, 2013 - 1:43am

@ Bron - Theory & Opinion

Say Bron, you're a pretty resourceful guy, how would someone get a copy of each of the serial #'s of those 6 Tons of kilogram bars which JPMorgue miraculously pulled out of its back pocket and supposedly "delivered"? Gee, wonder if the Comex has any pictures of them as well?

Bron SucheckiTF
Nov 4, 2013 - 1:24am

Theory and opinion

"Bron alleges that because the Comex allows vaulting and delivery of 1-kg bars, that it's possible I'm dead wrong and that the numbers posted last week are all accurate and true."

My post did not claim that the Comex numbers were true ie were those real amounts of physical metal delivered. My post was that you couldn't conclude this, or prove it, based on your assumption that the figures were "statistically impossible".

"theory for how the exact and precise measurements can to be reported and he is certainly entitled to his opinion"

It is not a theory, nor an opinion, that Comex allows 1kg bars and therefore the figures you thought were "statistically impossible" are entirely possible. Your whole post was how the impossible figures proved the Comex deliveries were "bullshit". Given the figures are possible, nothing was proven.

"continued to add comments to a thread that's over a week old"

My comment about Comex allowing kilo bars was posted to the article 1 day after the article. I did not say anything rude about you, just offered it as a fact. All I was expecting was something to what Bill Holter said at "I did not know this and have never heard of kilo bars ever being delivered from COMEX. If true then my apologies." and "OK, so the figures don't prove the deliveries are bullshit but my opinion is they still are."

Because you did not respond I saw another false meme being created about proof of bullshit deliveries, which is why I posted on my own blog.

"perhaps Bron should spend more time worrying about his own house instead of casting stones at others"

We have nothing to worry about at the Perth Mint as we don't engage in fractional reserves. It would help our business greatly if the fractional bullion banking system collapsed as we'd sell a lot more physical and get a lot more safe storage business. I've been talking about fractional bullion banking since 2010

However, I don't let my personal preferences cloud my objective analysis of the bullion system and the reality of how it operates and whether it will last. My current theory is that bullion banking operates under a "free banking" type model and thus runs a higher level of reserves than many think and will therefore need a serious bullion bank run before it will blow up.

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