Regarding My Friend, Andrew Maguire

165
Fri, Oct 25, 2013 - 3:41pm

There's been quite a bit of talk about Andrew these past 24 hours. I've received a handful of emails asking me for my opinion so I thought I would start this new thread.

If you're wondering what all the fuss is about, this all started yesterday when Jeffrey Christian of the CPM Group, who was speaking at the Silver Summit in Spokane, Washington, concluded his presentation with some "revelations" about Andy's personal life and background. The story was then picked up by Kitco:

https://www.kitco.com/news/2013-10-24/KitcoNews20131024DA-CPM-Group-Alleges-Whistleblower-Maguire-Has-No-Metals-History-Silver-Summit.html

Rather amazingly, just a little over an hour later, the story was picked up and repeated verbatim by Forbes:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kitconews/2013/10/24/cpm-group-alleges-whistleblower-maguire-has-no-metals-history-silver-summit/

Hmmmm. What, if anything, do we make of this?

Beats me but I do think some context is required. Below is a link to Jeffrey's company website:

https://www.cpmgroup.com

There you'll find all sorts of interesting tidbits such as Jeffrey's scowling visage:

Also included is a bio that prominently mentions: "(Jeffrey) has advised many of the world’s largest corporations and institutional investors on managing their commodities price and market exposures, as well as providing advisory services to the World Bank, United Nations, International Monetary Fund, and numerous governments."

Not sure that's the type of endorsement most here would value but apparently Jeffrey thinks it's important. Additionally, this is worth noting, right on the homepage:

"CPM Group is known for its research and analysis of the metals markets, its overall economic analysis of commodities markets, and its expertise in financial engineering, using derivatives to structure optimized positions for commercial hedgers, and for institutional and high net worth individual investors."

So...in my humble interpretation...it certainly appears that Jeffrey and his company have a vested interest in maintaining the current, leveraged, fractional reserve derivative system. I mean, it says so right there on their home page, does it not?

Anyway, Jeffrey has had a bug up his rear for quite some time now regarding GATA, Bill Murphy and Andrew Maguire. Again, I wonder why? Just speculating here but could it be related to his company's "expertise in financial engineering that utilizes derivatives..."? GATA has worked for years to end the blatant corruption of the manipulated paper (derivative) metals markets. If GATA was ultimately successful in ending paper metal derivative manipulation, would The CPM Group need to come up with a new business plan? Again, hmmmm.

Which brings us to my friend, Andrew. It's been almost four years but do you recall just whom and which organization brought Andrew to the forefront at the CFTC "hearing"? Oh yah...it was GATA! How about that?

And now here is something to be seized upon. Early in the clip above, Bill Murphy states "Mr. Maguire, formerly of Goldman Sachs, is a metals trader in London..." It is this supposed Goldman Sachs lineage that Jeffrey is claiming to be false. Apparently, by extension, if Andrew didn't actually work for Goldman Sachs, then everything else he has claimed or demonstrated must then be false, up to and including the JPM whistleblowers.

First of all, regarding Goldman Sachs, I challenge anyone reading this to scour the internet and find one, single incidence of Andrew Maguire stating that he worked for Goldman Sachs. This initial claim by Bill Murphy has been repeated and reported over and over but, as far as I know, never stated by Andrew. I suppose he could have refuted it somewhere along the way but, as I know from personal experience, once you start down the path of refuting everything that gets said about you on the internet, it leaves little time for anything else.

In the end, I guess I'm confused about what this has to do with anything, anyway. Is Jeffrey claiming that unless you've worked for Goldman Sachs like him, you are not qualified to offer an expert opinion on the metals? If that's the case, how come this site is so successful? I've been a stockbroker, a mutual fund wholesaler and a failed internet entrepreneur. Does that make all of my CoT, BPR, Comex and chart analysis worthless? Apparently not. And what about Andy? All of his trades are documented on the Coghlan Capital site and the only complaint I ever heard from anyone in "Turd's Army" was that the hours were too early for the average, U.S.-based trader. If the guy consistently makes money and, as you can see on the TFMR homepage, Andy is up considerably since April of 2012, why would a Goldman Sachs background matter?

Look....Andy's been awful busy lately. We haven't even spoken for over a month. By email exchange, though, I know he was very frustrated by the sudden ending of the 5-year CFTC silver investigation and he's been working behind the scenes to get the two JPM whistleblowers a fair hearing. Knowing this, the timing and scurrilous nature of Kitco's and Forbes' reporting seems rather convenient.

I feel fortunate to consider Andrew Maguire my friend. He is a good and decent gentleman who, like me, has found himself thrust into the limelight, fighting against the central bankers, the bullion bankers and their abettor media. Though we've never met in person, I can assure you that he is an accomplished trader, wise to the ways of the international metals markets. He has a wealth of knowledge and experience, which he has unselfishly shared with me and all of us here at TFMR, in order to increase our understanding of the markets. At great personal expense, he continues to forge ahead in his quest to end the price suppression scheme that has bankrupted companies and brought great harm to their workers, particularly in underdeveloped nations. For his effort, he is subject to all sorts of personal attacks, yesterday being just the latest example.

He has my friendship and support. He should have yours, too.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  165 Comments

Watcher
Oct 25, 2013 - 3:54pm

What is Jeff Christian's

What is Jeff Christian's middle name...Anti?

Spartacus Rex
Oct 25, 2013 - 3:58pm

Thanks Turd

Jeffrey Christian is just another insider's douchebag trying to stir up sh*t

ggnewmex
Oct 25, 2013 - 3:59pm

kudos

Enough said

288

TreeTop Dweller
Oct 25, 2013 - 3:59pm

Bravo! Well Stated.

That is Bravo, as in kudos to you and very well written.

Not Bravo as in Delta Bravo that was appropriately stated in an earlier thread.

murphy
Oct 25, 2013 - 4:04pm

@JC

belongs on this thread

Kcap
Oct 25, 2013 - 4:06pm

NO Silver Shortage, eh?

https://www.silverdoctors.com/massive-silver-shortage-in-europe/

There's plenty of paper silver to go around though....so, go buy some if you like that sort of thing.

Kcap

Swift Boat VetWatcher
Oct 25, 2013 - 4:17pm

Give 'Em Hell Andy

And keep up the good work. That means you too Turdski !

Swifty

wildstylechef
Oct 25, 2013 - 4:21pm

I've been taking on Kitco on Twitter about this

I haven't seen anyone else commenting on their BS

Spartacus Rex
Oct 25, 2013 - 4:23pm

The Fed Can Only Fail: And We’ll All Lose by Chris Martenson

by Chris Martenson

The basic predicament we are in is that the current crop of leaders in the halls of monetary and political power does not appear to understand the dimensions of our situation.

The mind-boggling part about all this is that it’s not really all that hard to grasp.

Our collective predicament is simply this: Nothing can grow forever.

Sooner or later, everything must cease growing, or it will exhaust its environs and thereby destroy itself. The Fed is busy doing everything in its considerable power to get credit (that is, debt) growing again so that we can get back to what it considers to be “normal.”

But the problem is – or the predicament, I should more accurately say – is that the recent past was not normal. You’ve probably all seen this next chart. It shows total debt in the U.S. as a percent of GDP:

Somewhere right around 1980, things really changed, and debt began climbing far faster than GDP. And that, right there, is the long and the short of why any attempt to continue the behavior that got us to this point is certain to fail.

It is simply not possible to grow your debts faster than your income forever. However, that’s been the practice since 1980, and every current politician and Federal Reserve official developed their opinions about ‘how the world works’ during the 33-year period between 1980 and 2013.

Put bluntly, they want to get us back on that same track, and as soon as possible. The reason? Because every major power center, be that in D.C. or on Wall Street, tuned their thinking, systems, and sense of entitlement during that period. And, frankly, a huge number of financial firms and political careers will melt away if/when that credit expansion finally stops.

And stop it will; that’s just a mathematical certainty. It’s now extremely doubtful that the Fed or D.C. will willingly cease the current Herculean efforts towards reviving this flawed practice of borrowing too much, too fast. So we have to expect that it will be some form of financial accident that finally breaks the stranglehold of failed thinking that infects current leadership.

The Math

As a thought experiment, let’s explore the math a little bit to see where it leads us. After all, I did just say that a poor end to all of this is a “mathematical certainty,” so let’s test that theory a bit. I think you’ll find this both interesting and useful.

To begin, Total Credit Market Debt (TCMD) is a measure of all the various forms of debt in the U.S. That includes corporate, state, federal, and household borrowing. So student loans are in there, as are auto loans, mortgages, and municipal and federal debt. It’s pretty much everything debt-related.

What it does not include, though, are any unfunded obligations, entitlements, or other types of liabilities. So the Social Security shortfalls are not in there, nor are the underfunded pensions at the state or corporate levels. TCMD is just debt, plain and simple.

As you can see in this next chart, since 1970, TCMD has been growing exponentially and almost perfectly, too. (The R2 is over 0.99, for you science types):

I’ve pointed out the tiny little wiggle that happened in 2008-2009, which apparently nearly brought down the entire global financial system. That little deviation was practically too much all on its own.

Now debts are climbing again at a quite nice pace. That’s mainly due to the Fed monetizing U.S. federal debt just to keep things patched together.

As an aside, based on this chart, we’d expect the Fed to not end their QE efforts until and unless households and corporations once more engage in robust borrowing. The system apparently ‘needs’ this chart to keep growing exponentially, or it risks collapse.

Okay, one could ask: Why can’t credit just keep growing?

Here’s where things get a little wonky. But if you’ll bear with me, you’ll see why I’m nearly 100% certain that the future will not resemble the past.

Let’s start in 1980, when credit growth really took off. This period also happens to be the happy time that the Fed is trying to (desperately) recreate.

Between 1980 and 2013, total credit grew by an astonishing 8% per year, compounded. I say ‘astonishing’ because anything growing by 8% per year will fully double every 9 years.

So let’s run the math experiment as ask what will happen if the Fed is successful and total credit grows for the next 30 years at exactly the same rate it did over the prior 30. That’s all. Nothing fancy, simply the same rate of growth that everybody got accustomed to while they were figuring out ‘how the world works.’

What happens to the current $57 trillion in TCMD as it advances by 8% per year for 30 years? It mushrooms into a silly number: $573 trillion. That is, an 8% growth paradigm gives us a tenfold increase in total credit in just thirty years:

For perspective, the GDP of the entire globe was just $85 trillion in 2012. Even if we advance global GDP by some hefty number, like 4% per year for the next 30 years, under an 8% growth regime, U.S. credit would be twice as large as global GDP in 2043 (!)

If that comparison didn’t do it for you, then just ask yourself: Why, exactly, would U.S. corporations, households, and government borrow more than $500 trillion over the next 30 years? The total mortgage market is currently $10 trillion, so might the plan include developing an additional 50 more U.S. residential real estate markets?

More seriously, can you think of anything that could support borrowing that much money? I can’t.

So perhaps the situation moderates a bit, and instead of growing at 8%, credit market debt grows at just half that rate. So what happens if credit just grows by 4% per year?

That gets us to $185 trillion, or another $128 trillion higher than today – a more than 3x increase:

Again, What might we borrow (only) $128 trillion for, over the next 30 years?

When I run these numbers, I am entirely confident that the rate of growth in debt between 1980 and 2013 will not be recreated between 2013 and 2043. With just one caveat: I’ve been assuming that dollars remain valuable. If dollars were to lose 90% or more of their value (say, perhaps due to our central bank creating too many of them?), then it’s entirely possible to achieve any sorts of fantastical numbers one wishes to see.

Think it could never happen?

Conclusion (to Part I)

This is the critical takeaway from all of the math above: For the Fed to achieve anything even close to the historical rate of credit growth, the dollar will have to lose a lot of value. I truly believe this is the Fed’s grand plan, if we may call it that, and it has nothing to do with what’s best for the people of this land. Instead, it’s entirely about keeping the financial system primed with sufficient new credit to prevent it from imploding.

That is, the Fed is beholden to a broken system; not anything noble.

In Part II: The Near Future May See One of the Biggest Wealth Transfers in Human History, we dive fully into the logic why GDP growth is very unlikely to support the rate of credit expansion that the Federal Reserve wants (or, more accurately, needs). And what will happen if it indeed doesn’t? A lot of painful, awful things – but central among them is a currency crisis.

Amidst the ensuing unpleasantness will be an awakening within today’s hyper-financialized markets to the huge imbalance now existing between paper claims and ownership of real things. A massive wealth transfer from those with ‘paper wealth’ (stocks, bonds, dollars) to those owning tangible assets (the productive value of which can’t easily be inflated away) will occur – and quickly, too.

Suggesting the key objective for today’s investor is answering: How do I make sure I’m on the right side of that wealth transfer?

Reposted with the permission of Chris Martenson and PeakProsperity.com.

https://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/2013/10/25/the-fed-can-only-fail-and-well-all-lose/

Blythesshrink
Oct 25, 2013 - 4:25pm

Well said Turd - make sure

Well said Turd - make sure Andy knows he has a lot of support from many Turdites.

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