Pillaging the GLD

167
Fri, Oct 18, 2013 - 5:31pm

While cobbling together some data for today's podcast, I found some interesting information that I thought I'd share with everyone. Some food for thought over the weekend.

Every day the CME publishes delivery notices and warehouse stocks. It is through these updates that I'm able to track the delivery notices for each delivery month and monitor whether or not JPMorgan is issuing or stopping (taking delivery) contracts. The warehouse stocks are usually updated by mid-afternoon each day and the delivery notices get updated by late evening. If you want to follow along yourself, the page can be found here:

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/nymex-delivery-notices.html

As you know, I've been tracking the almost-daily pillaging of the GLD this week, this month and this year and doing so has helped me considerably in projecting price, particularly since I noticed the obvious correlations back in July. This has continued to be helpful this month since, as soon as I noticed JPM being the major issuer of October Comex deliveries, I projected that the GLD would soon be hit for about 20-25 metric tonnes of gold and that price weakness through the first half of the month would be an attendant factor.

For those keeping score at home...The GLD is now down 23.76 mts MTD and price, after declining more than $76, looks to have bottomed and reversed into an UPtrend as of Tuesday-Wednesday.

Anyway, that's not the point of this post. Here's what I want you to consider this time:

On Wednesday of this week, even though price rose $9 on the Comex, the GLD was plundered for 3.6 metric tonnes of gold or 115,742 troy ounces.

On Thursday, 2.582 metric tonnes or 83,024 troy ounces of gold magically appeared in HSBC's Comex vault in the eligible, or sometimes considered "unallocated", category. (Recall that HSBC is the custodian for the GLD.) On the CME Gold Stocks report, it looked like this:

Later on Thursday, even though price rose by another $41 on the Comex, the GLD reported that another 3.3 metric tonnes of gold or 106,097 troy ounces had left its "inventory". This dropped the total "inventory" to just 882.23 metric tonnes, now down 467.69 metric tonnes or 34.65% year-to-date.

Your Wed-Thu totals are: Price UP $50. GLD "inventory" down 6.9 mts or about 222,000 ounces.

This afternoon, the latest CME Gold Stocks report shows two important things:

  1. Of the 83,024 eligible ounces that HSBC took in yesterday, 72,162 went right back out the door today.
  2. And JPMorgan showed an increase of an incredible 192,900.000 ounces in their eligible vault.
  • Note first that it's exactly 192,900 ounces. Given the variances of weights and measures, there's a 1 in 1000 chance of showing nothing to the right of the decimal point.
  • Then note that 192,900 troy ounces is almost exactly 6 metric tonnes. The exact number is 5.99986 metric tonnes. Basically they were just 4 troy ounces short of a perfect and exact 6 metric tonnes.
  • Maybe the two bullet points above are simple coincidences. Maybe not. You decide.

Below is today's CME Gold Stocks report:

Your Wed-Thu Comex Vault totals are: An increase of 197,307 ounces, all in the eligible category.

Putting it together, I have no remaining doubts. "Quod Erat Demonstrandum".

The bullion banks are desperate for gold to settle in both London and New York. We see it in the declining Comex stocks and the occasional London Forward Rate backwardation. In order to settle their current obligations and replenish their vaults for future delivery requirements, the bullion banks now regularly orchestrate predictable raids on paper price in order to create the selling conditions which give them cover to raid the "inventory" of the GLD for their own use.

Lastly, as further evidence, I also submit this:

Again, to me it is abundantly clear. The GLD is being consistently and regularly pillaged by the bullion banks as they desperately search for gold to settle their obligations. The question you need to ask yourself is:

As physical gold becomes increasingly scarce right before your eyes, do you have enough??

Probably not.

Prepare accordingly.

TF

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I Run Bartertown
Oct 20, 2013 - 8:33pm

Opticsguy

“To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize.”

- Voltaire ...likely mis-attributed, but who knows...

As to whether that influence is "Western", in the Western Civilization sense...well, that's a whole other debate. Not likely a popular one, though, so I'm going to go watch some Zombies .

opticsguy
Oct 20, 2013 - 8:28pm

in Abguy's defense

The EE in this case was who? The US/English that smuggled Vladmeir Lenin into Russia after the treaty of Brest-Letvosk? If the US hadn't gotten involved in the great war, the provisional government might have survived the fall of 1917. As it was, the US had troops on the ground helping the Whites (counter-revolutionaires), but called them back.

It took a lot of Western interference to get Lenin in power. Quo bono?

I Run Bartertown
Oct 20, 2013 - 8:25pm

abguy4

Not to nitpick, but your misunderstanding of the Russian Revolution makes a bit of a clusterfuck of the sides. The Czar was not the man in charge of the goon squad. He (along with his children) was the target of the goon squad.

The Bolsheviks killed him and his family, and went on to kill millions more in all manner of horrific ways. No memorials, no war crimes trials, no Hollywood blockbusters, no hunting down old Communists in their twilight years for revenge, no museums, no decades of reparations payments, no banning of the hammer and sickle, no laws against 'Holodomor Denial', no space in the curriculum of schools, but a quite nasty business nonetheless...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shooting_of_the_Romanov_family

"The Russian Imperial Romanov family, including their four daughters and their son and all those who chose to accompany them into exile – notably Eugene Botkin, Anna Demidova, Alexei Trupp and Ivan Kharitonov[1] – were shot in Yekaterinburg on 17 July 1918. The execution of the Tsar was carried out by the Ural Soviet which was led by Yakov Yurovsky. According to some historians, the murder had been ordered in Moscow by Vladimir Lenin and Yakov Sverdlov [IRB note - check the ethnicities...these things DO matter whether you want them to or not] to prevent the rescue of the Imperial Family by approaching White forces during the ongoing Russian Civil War."

Dyna mo humNumber 47
Oct 20, 2013 - 6:36pm

# 47 lighting a fatty

I have a firm rule under this roof. A libation is not to be had here until 5pm no exceptions. That rule tends to make the common here folk appear a bit more civilized. I share your disdain.

opticsguy
Oct 20, 2013 - 6:22pm

Dr. Z also predicts the NSA

the private life is dead

Dr. Zhivago - The Private Life is Dead
Number 47Mr. Fix
Oct 20, 2013 - 5:46pm

Cheers for the welcome home,

TBH most of the changes were easy. The gardening and aquaponics were easy to pass, after the pork dioxin debacle

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Irish_pork_crisis

and being fed horsemeat in our beef ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_meat_adulteration_scandal ) it was an easy call to start producing at home, will be adding chickens soon.

Moving to the country was a no brainer either as the societal breakdown was becoming too much of an influence on the children. Unemployment has decimated the city. Drunks everywhere, the other morning a man asked me to light his joint outside the school he had just dropped his 6 year old to, it was 9am. Gangs are forming along cultural divides. My neighbours here in the country are cows. Houses close enough to hear our alarm but that's it.

The shit has hit the fan here already, it's just not hit the people yet if you get what I'm saying. Unemployment is at 13.3%. Ha! This is horseshit of the highest order, these figures are skewed by the mass migration, over 200,000 people have left this country since 2008 due to lack of employment. That's a lot in a country of 4 million. This also doesn't cover the numbers that are on jobbridge, an internship scheme where you work for your social welfare payment but are out of the figures. Nor are the people counted who are on the back to education scheme, social welfare paid while you go to university. Very popular that one and soon there will be a load of newly qualified unemployed hitting the streets. It also doesn't count the people on short hours and 3 day weeks.

Shops are closing everywhere. People are broke thanks to ever increasing prices and taxes yet wages are being cut. I work now in a car parts department. The other side of the business is new cars. Guess which side is doing well? In 2007 there were 333000ish new cars registered in Ireland, last year 147000ish.

House prices are hilarious. I can buy a four bedroom home, brand new right now for 99,000. It would have cost 350,000 just 5 years ago. 1 in 3 are in mortgage arrears and the banks won't repossess because it would expose the true prices. They would be forced to mark to market and a firesale would ensue.

Yet we are being touted as the great example of recovery in Europe because we are exiting the bailout. Ha.

Thank god this country is neutral, it is the only thing keeping us here at the moment.

Key Economic Events Week of 8/10

8/10 10:00 ET Job openings
8/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
8/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Idx
8/13 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/13 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Mr. Fix
Oct 20, 2013 - 5:15pm

Number 47,

It is so good to have you back, there are not all that many of us that take preparations as seriously as you have, and I think your inspiration is both admirable and required.

Being a prepper before the shit hits the fan is hard work, and by its very nature not the most popular thing to do with family and friends.

It sounds as though you have positioned yourself well for the long haul,

and I tip my hat to you for your efforts.

Now that you are settled in,

don't be a stranger.

Number 47
Oct 20, 2013 - 4:25pm

Cheers Dyna mo hum

I'll be watching that show, doubt it will be any different to the past expenses scandal in the UK. Claiming for duck houses and moat cleaning etc.

Just wanted to say, there appears to be capitulation on here. Never thought I'd see the day. I still buy, hard to get phys these days here at a decent premium so I just transfer a third of every wage to bullionvault. Who cares what the price is? I rarely follow anymore. I just buy in and hold, I will keep doing this until the time comes to withdraw phys.

This site was always a prep site for the end of the great keynesian experiment. Seems in its death throes to me, there may be more convulsions but this is never going to end well. There is so much lipstick on the pig by this point that it can barely hold its head up.

I would rather be left holding gold at any price than the currency of any nation.

This will end in war, not the gameboy, limited casualty fought from distance type. This will end in the up close and personal, bodies strewn and rotting on the field type. It won't be pretty but we can't dodge the inevitable.

I have not been around for a while. I've been busy. Stopped drinking alcohol a year ago. Moved my family out of the city, changed careers to something more suitable for hard times. Learned to garden and set up an aquaponics system that I hope to have running on solar and wind by next spring. I also have a large wormery so I don't need to rely on commercial fish foods. I don't spend anymore. I grudge a penny to anyone. I have taught myself using books and the internet to repair electronics and now have work after work, repairs to tvs, computers and phones.

I'm ready for whatever comes, it was my Grandfather who last faced this type of catastrophe, his father before him and plenty more of my ancestors before them. We have got away with a large period of relative stability historically speaking. It is over now, be ready and stop whinging about losses, there is a lot more to lose in the coming days. Pray it is only money.

Bongo Jim
Oct 20, 2013 - 4:15pm

Level 6

Luckily we stopped there. Any further and the energy weapons would have got us.

Dyna mo hum
Oct 20, 2013 - 3:30pm

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Key Economic Events Week of 8/10

8/10 10:00 ET Job openings
8/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
8/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Idx
8/13 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/13 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 8/3

8/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
8/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
8/5 8:15 ET ADP employment July
8/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
8/6 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/7 8:30 ET BLSBS for July
8/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 7/27

7/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
7/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
7/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
7/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
7/30 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess
7/31 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
7/31 8:30 ET Core inflation
7/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/20

7/21 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
7/21 2:00 ET Senate vote on Judy Shelton
7/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 8:30 ET Jobless claims
7/23 10:00 ET Leading Economic Indicators
7/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for July

Key Economic Events Week of 7/13

7/13 11:30 ET Goon Williams speech
7/13 1:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
7/14 8:30 ET CPI for June
7/14 2:30 ET Goon Bullard speech
7/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
7/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
7/16 11:00 ET Goon Williams again
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 7/6

7/6 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
7/6 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
7/7 10:00 ET Job openings
7/9 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
7/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
7/10 8:30 ET PPI for June

Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
7/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 6/22

6/22 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
6/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
6/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for June
6/23 10:00 ET New home sales
6/25 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
6/26 8:30 ET Core inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 6/15

6/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/16 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/16 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US Senate
6/16 4:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia speech
6/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
6/17 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US House
6/18 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
6/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/19 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
6/19 1:00 pm ET CGP and Mester conference

Key Economic Events Week of 6/8

6/9 10:00 ET Job openings
6/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
6/10 8:30 ET CPI for May
6/10 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/10 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
6/11 8:30 ET PPI for May
6/12 8:30 ET Import price index
6/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

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