Pillaging the GLD

167
Fri, Oct 18, 2013 - 5:31pm

While cobbling together some data for today's podcast, I found some interesting information that I thought I'd share with everyone. Some food for thought over the weekend.

Every day the CME publishes delivery notices and warehouse stocks. It is through these updates that I'm able to track the delivery notices for each delivery month and monitor whether or not JPMorgan is issuing or stopping (taking delivery) contracts. The warehouse stocks are usually updated by mid-afternoon each day and the delivery notices get updated by late evening. If you want to follow along yourself, the page can be found here:

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/nymex-delivery-notices.html

As you know, I've been tracking the almost-daily pillaging of the GLD this week, this month and this year and doing so has helped me considerably in projecting price, particularly since I noticed the obvious correlations back in July. This has continued to be helpful this month since, as soon as I noticed JPM being the major issuer of October Comex deliveries, I projected that the GLD would soon be hit for about 20-25 metric tonnes of gold and that price weakness through the first half of the month would be an attendant factor.

For those keeping score at home...The GLD is now down 23.76 mts MTD and price, after declining more than $76, looks to have bottomed and reversed into an UPtrend as of Tuesday-Wednesday.

Anyway, that's not the point of this post. Here's what I want you to consider this time:

On Wednesday of this week, even though price rose $9 on the Comex, the GLD was plundered for 3.6 metric tonnes of gold or 115,742 troy ounces.

On Thursday, 2.582 metric tonnes or 83,024 troy ounces of gold magically appeared in HSBC's Comex vault in the eligible, or sometimes considered "unallocated", category. (Recall that HSBC is the custodian for the GLD.) On the CME Gold Stocks report, it looked like this:

Later on Thursday, even though price rose by another $41 on the Comex, the GLD reported that another 3.3 metric tonnes of gold or 106,097 troy ounces had left its "inventory". This dropped the total "inventory" to just 882.23 metric tonnes, now down 467.69 metric tonnes or 34.65% year-to-date.

Your Wed-Thu totals are: Price UP $50. GLD "inventory" down 6.9 mts or about 222,000 ounces.

This afternoon, the latest CME Gold Stocks report shows two important things:

  1. Of the 83,024 eligible ounces that HSBC took in yesterday, 72,162 went right back out the door today.
  2. And JPMorgan showed an increase of an incredible 192,900.000 ounces in their eligible vault.
  • Note first that it's exactly 192,900 ounces. Given the variances of weights and measures, there's a 1 in 1000 chance of showing nothing to the right of the decimal point.
  • Then note that 192,900 troy ounces is almost exactly 6 metric tonnes. The exact number is 5.99986 metric tonnes. Basically they were just 4 troy ounces short of a perfect and exact 6 metric tonnes.
  • Maybe the two bullet points above are simple coincidences. Maybe not. You decide.

Below is today's CME Gold Stocks report:

Your Wed-Thu Comex Vault totals are: An increase of 197,307 ounces, all in the eligible category.

Putting it together, I have no remaining doubts. "Quod Erat Demonstrandum".

The bullion banks are desperate for gold to settle in both London and New York. We see it in the declining Comex stocks and the occasional London Forward Rate backwardation. In order to settle their current obligations and replenish their vaults for future delivery requirements, the bullion banks now regularly orchestrate predictable raids on paper price in order to create the selling conditions which give them cover to raid the "inventory" of the GLD for their own use.

Lastly, as further evidence, I also submit this:

Again, to me it is abundantly clear. The GLD is being consistently and regularly pillaged by the bullion banks as they desperately search for gold to settle their obligations. The question you need to ask yourself is:

As physical gold becomes increasingly scarce right before your eyes, do you have enough??

Probably not.

Prepare accordingly.

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  167 Comments

Oct 18, 2013 - 5:35pm

One extra note

Some will claim that it's not possible to equate the GLD with the Comex vaults as the Comex is in New York and the GLD "gold" is allegedly held in HSBC's vaults in London. This is nonsense.

GLD "gold" and Comex eligible "gold" are one and the same. Both are nothing but paper claims to someone else's gold and therefore easily shipped by keystroke, across The Atlantic, from one vault another.

Danforth Coxwell
Oct 18, 2013 - 5:47pm

Second...

Yahoo.

Danforth Coxwell
Oct 18, 2013 - 5:47pm

Second...

Yahoo.

ReachWest
Oct 18, 2013 - 5:53pm

Ha-ha - First (after Turd).

Ha-ha - First (after Turd).

Interesting finding there Turd.. QED on the GLD pilfering. Love the detailed investigative work you undertake to bring us the straight scoop. Looks like somebody is short physical. (I'm not - but of course, I need more.)

... and to think, 99.9% of the general public have none.

bullion only
Oct 18, 2013 - 5:54pm

I think they will never run

I think they will never run out. A secret hoard will be found. Of course you will never see it.

I truly it is one big international banking cartel that includes China and Russia, Europe and the US.

It's not countries hoarding gold. It is central banks and they are not public.

RT

pforth
Oct 18, 2013 - 5:56pm

What about SLV?

Any thoughts there?

Spartacus Rex
Oct 18, 2013 - 5:58pm

After its one month's sabbatical...

I am really curious as to what next week's COT Report will look like

brolgaboy
Oct 18, 2013 - 6:06pm

re: I think they will never run out

after all there is all that gold in Hawaii they've yet to burn through.....

Bugzy
Oct 18, 2013 - 6:06pm

Bullion only

If that was the case, surely they would do that FIRST, so as to keep secret, the pillaging and get folk to dismiss Gold?

Mr. Fix
Oct 18, 2013 - 6:06pm

3rd, (But who's counting anyway?)

I suppose that the thievery will continue until all of the physical supply has been pillaged.

I am very wary of the numbers however, sometimes there is a correlation to price,

and at some point, there won't be.

Just when you think you've got the game all figured out, they just change the rules.

I am however impressed with your track record, I think you've got the system fairly well figured out,

but even the best laid strategy will come apart at the seams when it is game over.

Funny how you ask if I've got enough physical gold, I was just having a personal debate as to whether to buy gold or silver this month,

I will decide next week, in my keeping with a 50/50 allocation, I think I am actually just a little bit lite on gold right now, the silver prices have just been to irresistible, especially when I can clean out the entire supply at the local coin shop.

Nice work Turd, and thank you very much for being here.

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

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