Yardsticks

107
Fri, Oct 18, 2013 - 1:07am

In physics class back in the day when I was but a wee lad, I was fascinated by the concept of units of measurement, or more precisely their definitions and structure. The laws of physics are the same in any language, culture or measurement system – but the units used to measure things like speed, force and distance are especially elegant in SI.

The seven SI base units and the interdependency of their definitions. Clockwise from top: kelvin (temperature), second (time), metre(length), kilogram (mass), candela (luminous intensity), mole (amount of substance) and ampere(electric current). The second of time, kelvin and kilogram are defined independently of any other base units. The metre is defined in terms of the speed of light, so depends upon the definition of the second. The definitions of the other base units are more complex.

I have long had a quibble with calling the mole (or mol) a UOM, as it is merely a number constant (6 x 1023 or so, as I remember). Current is really electrical charge/time, and so seems an odd choice as a ‘base’ metric. But the rest of them are beautiful in their simplicity – and their power. I will focus on just the TRULY basic ones: mass (kilograms), time (seconds) and especially the seemingly easiest one to measure: length (meter).

metre1 US, meter [ˈmiːtə]

n

1. (Mathematics & Measurements / Units) a metric unit of length equal to approximately 1.094 yards

2. (Mathematics & Measurements / Units) the basic SI unit of length; the length of the path travelled by light in free space during a time interval of 1/299 792 458 of a second. In 1983 this definition replaced the previous one based on krypton-86, which in turn had replaced the definition based on the platinum-iridium metre bar kept in Paris Symbol m --- The Free Dictionary

This seemingly simple, humble measurement has enormous impact, when fully applied:

Density of matter: kilograms / meters3

Area: meters2

Volume: meters3

Speed: meters / second

Acceleration: meters / second2

Force: kilograms x meters / second2

Pressure: kilograms / meters x second2

Power: kilograms x meters2 / second3

Energy: kilograms x meters2 / second2

This last bit was always my favorite, for when I learned it, it finally made some sense of E=mc2. It does, however pose a conundrum – speed of light is measured in meters/second. Yet a meter is defined as the distance light travels in vacuum in a given infinitesimal time period – which leads to the true but nonsensical statement that the speed of light is equal to the speed of light. This will have more relevance in a few minutes.

But I digress. Before mankind was able to accurately and repeatedly measure the path traveled by light in a vacuum in 1/299,792,458 of a second, the metric for distance had a fixed, physical ‘yardstick’: an 'X'-cross-section 90% platinum 10% iridium bar. National standards bureau representatives from around the world would travel to the Pavillon de Breteuil in France to take measurements, and construct replicas of their own – but the centrally held ‘official’ bars were deemed to serve as the reference point worldwide. Incidentally, the site enjoys extraterritorial rights, like an embassy. A physical cylinder of metal was made on the same principle for the kilogram.

Keeping these images and concepts in mind, let us consider an altogether different unit of measurement. There is a unique one that comes to mind, one that – similarly to the measurement of distance in physics – is central to the definition and measurement of many, many things in the world around us. Certainly a significant portion of things considered to be part of modern society. I am, of course, talking about the reserve currency.

  1. Oil, gas, coal and their components and derivatives: priced (measured) in USD
  2. US Treasuries (debt issued by the Treasury to ‘back’ dollars): denominated in USD
  3. Other sovereign and State/municipal bonds: prices calculated based on comparative premium or discount to UST – priced in USD
  4. Metal ores, refined raw metals – both base and precious: USD
  5. Agricultural commodities: USD
  6. Cost of capital: Inter- and Supragovernmental Loans, Mortgage Loans, Commercial Loans, Retail Loans, Credit Card Loans, Payday Loans, Loanshark ‘loans’ -- calculated based on comparative premium or discount to UST – which is, of course, priced in USD
  7. As a result of the above, the following are all GLOBALLY directly affected or determined by USD:
    1. Cost of Housing
    2. Land Values
    3. Cost of food
    4. Cost of fuel and ALL alternative forms of energy
    5. Cost of Manufactured Goods
  8. Gross Domestic Product of all countries around the world: denominated in USD
  9. Foreign currencies: priced (to a great extent) in terms of their cross-exchange rate with USD
  10. USD index: determined by the cross-exchange rate of a basket of currencies, with some (Euro) weighted more heavily than others. (Note the circular definitions arising from #2 and #9-10. )

It surrounds us and penetrates us; it binds the global economy together. There is no escaping its reach. It IS what it IS -- it is defined by itself, yet also defines all else. It is the ultimate serpent biting its own tail. Like the speed of light, it is considered to be a physical constant -- from which other measurements can be defined, since it is constant.

We know all this, you might (rightly) say – so what? Well, through the use of the ‘financial innovation’ that has brought ‘unparalleled prosperity’ to the Western World, esp. in the last 20 years or so, the nature of the USD is not what it once was. The markets, structures, definitions and ‘standards’ above came into being before or just after the closing of the gold window.

“Like gold, U.S. dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in supply. But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services. We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation.” BSB, 2002 -- it seems he really wasn't kidding about the positive inflation part, anyway

Just like the wonderfully creative, innovative, and socially responsible megabanks created and propagated their instruments of financial innovation **COUGH** (which dwarf in size the entire global economy and ‘real’ financial system as represented by ‘traditional’ money and assets), the central banks have also been busy cooking up their new and improved formulas:

The world today faces both short-term and long-term challenges. In the near term, the highest priority is to promote a global economic recovery. The Federal Reserve retains powerful policy tools and will use them aggressively to help achieve this objective.BSB, 2009 -- again, at least the last sentence of this paragraph is true.

The decrease in purchasing power incurred by the holders of money due to inflation imparts gains to the issuers of money if the rises in the price level are due to increases in the quantity of money. The increases in the price level reveal to some extent the real resources acquired by the issuers of money through the expansion of money.” Charlotte E. Ruebling, FedResBank of St. Louis, February 1975 (it took a while to find the full quote and original source of this oft-quoted truism -- the full paper is worth a look)

The brilliance of our current monetary masters lies in the fact that they have overcome this ‘limitation’ of ‘earning’ money through the hard, painstaking work of JUST money creation. Like true vampire squids*, they are able to make a vig off EVERY movement in the currency supply, through every transaction, through every malinvestment, through ALL activities, whether inflationary or deflationary.

The dollar is but a tool, an instrument, the tailor’s cloth, the potter’s clay. It is to be shaped, molded, cut, chiseled and amended as the current goals of its owners dictate – depending on the circumstances. Its size/length/dimension/color/composition subject to constant adjustment and change – both by the central planners at the CBs, and by the banks through which monetary policy is implemented (but I repeat myself). The resulting metric always ends up favoring one side: the side controlling the currency. Which brings us back to the iridium-platinum bars, specifically formulated for their durability, immutability, resistance to change and imperviousness to heat – to serve as a standard of measurement worldwide.

Imagine these sticks being housed in a huge vault enclosing a metals foundry, where they can be shortened, lengthened, thinned, bent or diluted with metals of different elasticity characteristics IN REAL TIME, but behind closed doors. All the world would see would be the readouts from instruments attached to the perfectly straight, perfectly long and perfectly even-shaped 'metre stick' on a screen -- while in reality it looks more like this

This manipulation of the base unit of measurement of the global economy has massive impact on the real world – just as manipulating that (rather expensive) yardstick in Paris would have done, in its day. If the standard measure of length were to fluctuate over time as much as the USD, how would we measure Force, Energy or Area? What would happen while trying to build skyscrapers? Or high-precision aeronautical equipment? Or microelectronics? Roads? Transoceanic cables?

Why, the same things that are happening in the global economy recently. Some regions were better able to recognize and take advantage of this phenomenon than others. The distortions of development, the transfer of wealth were and are universal, however – along with the instability of the massive financial empires towering over societies. The intricately complex structures of interlocked derivatives are no less vulnerable than equivalent physical constructs to arbitrary changes to the units underpinning their creation. Beyond simple mispricing of assets, labor, resources and time, the manipulation of the unit of account fundamentally (and presumably intentionally/selectively) alters the very fabric of and relationships in the economy.

But by and large much of the world (and certainly the issuing country and its Western cohorts) are going to almost COMICAL lengths to pretend that that meter is still THE meter. Inflation is mild to moderate, and its rate is carefully integrated into economic modeling. Nothing to see here, move along. Ignore the shrinking packaging and item counts, the price of energy, food, education and healthcare. And hundreds of millions, if not BILLIONS of people still firmly believe that the measuring stick truly IS a stick that can reliably measure. Headlines such as this (were they to appear) might not really raise eyebrows :-) (thanks, Wizard):

Markets In Turmoil As Price Of Money Skyrockets To $90 A Dollar

How much stretching, bending and heat can that platinum bar take, before ultimately succumbing to forces greater than its tensile strength? How long, before this Schrödinger currency is finally directly observed, thereby dying? In a way, the recent ’legislative’ events can be seen in one of two ways (that perhaps come to the same thing in the end):

  1. We, the representatives of the People have decided that the TOTUS has the wisdom, the authority, the balls – aw, what the heck, the God-given right to determine the length of the yardstick.
  2. Yardstick?! We doan need no steenkin’ YARDSTICK!

Is there a new, brighter, shinier yardstick waiting in the wings? To be offered by the current stage managers, or by the rest of the world? Will it take more time, and if so is there a Plan B for what might happen should events accelerate? It certainly looks like we are a fair mile further down the road towards that event. We have in many ways become accustomed to the landscape blurring by, it no longer conveys the sense of speed it used to at first. We are all careening in a car whose components have tolerances that are now approaching or far below the variance of their unit of measurement. The car’s speed is undetermined and indeterminable, the speedometer might as well be an Infinite Improbability Drive. The road may or may not hold the car’s weight, as the asphalt’s density and weight tolerance may or may not match that of the car. Perhaps the car will simply run out of gas and stall, or break down in a non-cataclysmic way by the side of the road. But jumping out at this speed would result in wicked road rash (if not painful death).

I still prefer to continue working on my own Plan B to try to leave the car, using my own set of measurements. At least these are extensible only at the rate of actual wealth acquisition as a result of work… (Alas, I am no good at stealing.)

And the upside? With other parameters unchanged, for each incremental decrease in mass caused by passengers leaving, the kinetic energy of the car should decrease. Regardless of the length of the yardstick.

* DISCLAIMER: I realize Vampyroteuthis Infernalis are harmless saprophytes, and in all honesty should have every reason and right to be outraged at being compared to banksters. See better alternative in comments below.

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Mr. Fix
Oct 18, 2013 - 10:58pm

Reply to “and they're gone”:

Magpie,

Thank you for posting that, this has gone far beyond “suspicious”, and into the realm of obscene.

The reasons given for the dismissal are contradictory and nonsensical on their face, and it can only lead an observer to ask “what is really going on here?”.

We've all heard about the “new litmus test”, but I think it's a little bit more severe than simply agreeing to fire upon American citizens, I think that it is more like “defend Obama until you die” would be a little closer to the truth.

He's obviously removing anyone with real experience and real loyalty, (to this country), and replacing them with his very own hand picked goons.

He obviously has a mission for them, and I suspect it involves a lot of loyalty to Obama combined with blatantly illegal and immoral activity.

Maybe I'm just being overly suspicious, maybe not.

That article sure does leave a lot to speculate on though doesn't it?

atarangi
Oct 18, 2013 - 10:58pm

C. Oinky Dink

Colonel Oinky Dink was found with a nuke in his garage. He was trying to fit it to a 1974 Mustang.

Magpie
Oct 18, 2013 - 10:38pm

And they're gone

Two more generals bite the dust. Coinkydink, or something else? Eleven this year... that we know about.

https://freepatriot.org/2013/10/18/dismissed-generals-suspended-officials/

AlienEyes
Oct 18, 2013 - 8:58pm

About the Lunatic Fringe.

1) Don't worry about the lunatic fringe. Worry about the full time, professional lunatics that run our government and banks.

2) If you voted for what we've got, you are NOT a lunatic. You are a complete, card-carrying idiot.

3) Crank it up and enjoy.....

Red Rider - Lunatic Fringe
silver foil hat
Oct 18, 2013 - 8:51pm

What happened to PSI (Pounds / Sq. In.?)

Parody Song!

Hey, you might as well have a laugh while TFTB take this country into economic hell...

Occasnltrvlr
Oct 18, 2013 - 7:15pm

Re: Bank of China in NY

I haven't actually withdrawn any cash there, but, I have two anecdotes I'd like to share.

First, I wanted to do a transfer, or some such activity. The young lady helping me opened MS Word, typed out what I wanted to do, printed the doc, and handed it to me to sign. (That is, they actually understanding meaning, as opposed to "following procedures".)

Second, while doing a little business, the young lady said something like: "Let me get your file." She pushed herself away from her desk, got up, went to a filing cabinet, and pulled out a manila folder with my original account documents in it.

What a refreshing and interesting throwback to a different time. Just an FYI.

Key Economic Events Week of 7/6

7/6 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
7/6 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
7/7 10:00 ET Job openings
7/9 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
7/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
7/10 8:30 ET PPI for June

Spartacus Rex
Oct 18, 2013 - 6:30pm

@ Fix

I'll pass that along to Bill H. for you. As for myself, I only sweat when I am working hard outdoors in the summer months.

¤
Oct 18, 2013 - 6:29pm

Gold Dog

Thanks for that valuable tidbit!

Simple question from a simple mind...does that mean that once your money grows over there (or the exchange rate gets a lot tighter) that you can transfer it back to the States and back into USD at a profit?

If that's the case, I might just do that and feel better about my deposit being outside of our domestic system. The only thing I'm looking for is the ability to be involved in RMB in some fashion (even if it's just an electronic deposit) and convert it back to USD when the rates invariably become much more favorable years from now.

If it can be done simply by opening an account like you're saying then I'll do it and save a trip to NYC. HSBC doesn't appear to be going anywhere anytime soon so I feel relatively safe having it parked there.

Mr. Fix
Oct 18, 2013 - 6:12pm

@ Spartacus Rex

Don't sweat the lunatic name-calling, it comes with the territory, and it is unavoidable.

Spartacus Rex
Oct 18, 2013 - 5:38pm

Gold, Silver, Debt – Don’t Miss These Important Charts

Gold Silver Worlds | October 18, 2013 | Articles: Gold Silver Prices

In this article, contributor Peter De Graaf shows in five charts the long and short term corrections of the gold and silver price. Precious metals remain within their rising trendline, despite the negative sentiment among investors and trader. Moreover, the seriousness of the debt situation and the impact on the dollar “paper currency” is shown in four charts. The debt ceiling in the US being pushed upward for the 79th time since 1960. Right after the last raise in 2011, the price of gold rose +17% between August 1st ($1620), and August 22nd ($1898) – that was +17% in just three weeks! A similar reaction by gold at this time could result in price rising quickly from $1281 to $1498.

Gold Price Corrections

The current correction in gold started in August 2011 and has now gone on for 112 weeks – (it most likely bottomed on June 28th). This has been the longest correction since the current bull market started in 2002.

  • The correction of 2006 lasted 71 weeks before a new high was reached. There followed then a 50% price rise, (+85% from bottom to the next top).
  • The correction of 2008 took 77 weeks before a new high was reached. The gold price then advanced by 80%, (+325% from bottom to next top).

The expectation is for gold to advance by more than 50% as in 2006-2008, and more than 80% as in 2008-2011 during this next ‘leg up’, because of the depth of the current pullback. Because of blatant manipulation of the gold price by large traders dumping oversized lumps of futures contracts during hours when trading is usually sparse; the price of gold is starting this next rally below its normal starting point. This is likely to cause the price to act in slingshot fashion, and may very well surprise a lot of people.

Here is the gold chart that records the beginning of the current bull market, along with three upside breakouts and the expectation for the next breakout, marked by arrows. (Charts courtesy www.stockcharts.com unless indicated).

The RSI (at top of chart) is ready to rise, the CCI (at upper bottom) is rising from oversold conditions, and the A/C line at the lower bottom is still in uptrend after merely leveling out.

This chart courtesy Incrementum.li shows us that the current correction in the gold price is not unusual, if we accept the principle that the higher the price, the larger the pullback.

Featured is the daily gold chart. Price is carving out a rising channel that is anchored by two upside reversals (June 28th and Oct 15th). On Oct. 17th price broke out from beneath three months of resistance, with a target at the 200DMA. The three supporting indicators have all turned positive, including the Accumulation/Distribution line. The Gold Direction Indicator (for details www.pdegraaf.com), turned bullish at 55%, compared to 44% on Wednesday.

Debt Ceiling, Debt Per Capita, Dollar Inflation

This chart courtesy Sharelynx.com shows a gap that has opened up between the US debt limit and the price of gold. Unless we expect the debt limit to be lowered, (how likely is that), we better prepare our portfolio for a rise in the price of gold, as the rubber band effect takes hold.

This chart courtesy BMGBullion.com shows the US Federal Debt on a per capita basis. This debt cannot be paid off – it will be inflated away. Gold and silver will be sought as protection against this inflation.

This chart courtesy Mark J. Lundeen shows the number of US dollar bills in circulation, compared to the number of ounces of gold supposedly stored at Fort Knox. (These gold ounces have not been audited since 1953).

Silver Price and Silver Corrections

Here is the long-term chart for silver, along with the breakout points after a correction takes place, marked with arrows, including the expectation for the next breakout. The three supporting indicators are beginning to rise up from support levels.

Featured is the index that compares silver to gold. Since the second leg in the double bottoms of 2003 and 2008, the trend has favored silver over gold. The two supporting indicators are turning positive. The target for the current bounce is at the top of the blue channel.

Featured is the daily bar chart for TIP the bond fund that is indexed for inflation. Price dropped sharply in May and June when it was thought that the FED might reduce its bond purchases (TIPs are bonds after all). Recently however the people who buy TIPs are sniffing the first whiffs of price inflation, and the arrows point to breakouts while the supporting indicators are positive. Price inflation is the delayed result of monetary inflation and a source of energy for gold and silver to rise.

Peter Degraaf is an online stocks and bullion trader, with over 50 years of investing experience. He produces a daily report for his many subscribers, in 17 different countries. For a sample copy of a recent report contact him atitiswell@cogeco.net or visit his website www.pdegraaf.com. Please do your own due diligence. Peter Degraaf is not responsible for your trading decisions.

https://goldsilverworlds.com/gold-silver-price-news/gold-silver-debt-important-charts/

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Key Economic Events Week of 7/6

7/6 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
7/6 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
7/7 10:00 ET Job openings
7/9 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
7/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
7/10 8:30 ET PPI for June

Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
7/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 6/22

6/22 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
6/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
6/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for June
6/23 10:00 ET New home sales
6/25 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
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Key Economic Events Week of 6/15

6/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
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6/16 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US Senate
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6/17 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US House
6/18 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
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6/19 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
6/19 1:00 pm ET CGP and Mester conference

Key Economic Events Week of 6/8

6/9 10:00 ET Job openings
6/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
6/10 8:30 ET CPI for May
6/10 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/10 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
6/11 8:30 ET PPI for May
6/12 8:30 ET Import price index
6/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/25

5/26 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
5/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/27 2:00 ET Fed Beige Book
5/28 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
5/29 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/11 12:30 ET Goon Evans speech
5/12 8:30 ET CPI
5/12 9:00 ET Goon Kashnkari speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Quarles speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Harker speech
5/12 5:00 ET Goon Mester speech
5/13 8:30 ET PPI
5/13 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
5/14 6:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State index
5/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

5/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/5 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
5/5 10:00 ET ISM Sevrice PMI
5/6 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/7 8:30 ET Productivity
5/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 4/27

4/28 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
4/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
4/29 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess
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4/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
4/30 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
5/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

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