The Pattern Re-Emerges

Tue, Oct 1, 2013 - 10:29am

February, April and June were Comex delivery months that saw the price of gold get hammered. August was a delivery month that saw the price of gold rally. October is a delivery month and gold is getting hammered again. What's the difference? Do you really want to know or does all of this make YOU want to go get hammered?

I think at this point it's safe to say that we're onto something. As documented here (, in 2013 if JPMorgan is issuing the majority of the delivery contracts in a delivery month, the price of gold gets hammered. If, instead, JPM is taking (stopping) deliveries to their own house account, the price of gold rallies. See August, for example: & &

October13 Comex gold deliveries began yesterday and we are back to the Feb/Apr/June pattern. For the first two days of the delivery month, there has been a total of 2,126 contracts delivered. That's 212,600 troy ounces or about 6.5 metric tonnes. Of the total, JPM has so far issued 1,991 of them or 93.6%. The primary stopper has been HSBC, claiming 1,570 of them (73.8%) for their own house account.

To no surprise, I guess, we now have this beatdown in progress. Since the $1353 highs of Sunday evening, gold has now fallen over $65 to $1288. Pretty remarkable given that there are no fundamental reasons for this selloff. And we can correctly assume that this is a Cartel bank inspiring this hammering. Why? For the same two reasons as always:

  1. No single Spec has the firepower of a position large enough to dump into the market all at once to cause such a bid-swallowing decline.
  2. And no for-profit Spec would ensure the worst trade execution possible by unloading 5,000 contracts in a single trade.

Here's how it looks in action:

And, so, once again it's mission accomplished.

  • The charts are in tatters (see below) and price looks almost certain to trade even lower in the days ahead.
  • Lower prices allow JPM to accumulate and deliver the gold necessary to settle their October obligations.
  • Lower prices allow JPM to accumulate additional December futures contracts for their "corner".
  • Lower prices will shake even more "gold" out of the GLD "inventory", the last update from which showed a new 2013 low balance of just 905.99 metric tonnes, down nearly 444 metric tonnes YTD or 32.88%.

So, we'll see where we go tomorrow and Thursday. I would still expect a minor rally and bounceback but, without a BLSBS on Friday because of the U.S. government shutdown, all bets are off, frankly. ANYTHING could happen.

There also will not be a CoT or a BPR this week. With the government "closed", there are no bureaucrats at the CFTC available to take the surveys and process the reports. When that might happen will be a function of when the government "re-opens". Until then, it's The Wild, Wild West in the metals pits. The Cartel Banks can put on or take off any positions they'd like without concern for grooming ahead of a CFTC survey. Long story short...expect much greater volatility as the Specs are jammed whichever way the banks would like.

Good luck and stay safe out there.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Oct 1, 2013 - 10:35am

FURST...for the THURD time

FURST...for the THURD time since joining TFMR!

As I ponder my currently furloughed existence, I am reminded that the decision makers remain remarkably unaffected by their decisions! SO I changed my deductions from 0 to 4...should only result in loss of 1/3rd of my paycheck (assuming this lasts through this week only). So at a time when I could be adding to my stack at a good price, my pay situation leaves me no extra fiat to take advantage of the discount...dammit!

Dyna mo hum
Oct 1, 2013 - 10:35am

Just sayin

I could have been first... butt nooo

Oct 1, 2013 - 10:40am


Yup - it's only 8:33 AM and this hammering does make me want to get hammered.

Thanks Turd! I can see that the BB's are hammering things down to suck in the stupid specs ... but, Is it possible that the metals are being beaten down in anticipation of some "Gold positive" event 'they' are expecting in the next day or two?

According to this article on Yahoo .. "WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Jamie Dimon, the chairman and chief executive officer of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and other bank executives are scheduled to meet with President Barack Obama on Wednesday, according to a report Tuesday in the Wall Street Journal." MORE HERE.

Mr. Fix
Oct 1, 2013 - 10:43am

Here we go again!



Gold and silver have been crushed this morning on the COMEX open, with silver down over $1 from its overnight highs near $22, plunging to $20.85, and gold is down nearly $50 from Monday, breaking through support at $1300 down to $1290.
Apparently the ESF has not been furloughed… [Read more...]

[Most Recent Quotes from]This sucks!angry

Oct 1, 2013 - 10:47am


Which is why they are so desperate to herd the cattle into a new massive short position.

Always remember that for every seller, there's a buyer. The Cartel initiates the downtrend and then covers as the momo-chasing Specs jump on the band wagon and drive things even lower. (See right this instant.)

If the damage is sufficient enough to really get The Specs to pile on, The Banks end up additionally NET LONG from the entire exercise, which will be the case when gold finally drops to and reverses off of the $1271 area.

Oct 1, 2013 - 10:49am

Would anyone object if I made

Would anyone object if I made this public tomorrow and sent it over to GATA? This is the kind of article that Chris always likes to dispatch.

Oct 1, 2013 - 10:50am

16 days until default?

If the government stays shut this will happen with obvious implications for PM prices (in a normal market!?).

With no COT or BPR they can act with even more impunity than they do anyway under the myopic and corrupt CFTC.

This is like the alarm failing at Fort Knox for the biggest bunch of thieves known to mankind.

Oct 1, 2013 - 11:00am


From Karl Denninger:

It's Called Evolution, Gentlemen (Tickerforum Changes)

In 2007 I began writing The Market Ticker due to the outrageous conduct of various branches in the Administration and portions of the Capital Markets. Endemic fraud in the financial system that had generated unbridled and outrageous credit creation threatened the collapse of our entire economic system.

The consequence of this should have been thousands of indictments, prosecutions and imprisonments -- of banking executives, of members of Congress, of various executive branch officers in various agencies and more. The banking system should have been forced to match assets to liabilities and either put up the margin to back their bets or liquidate them -- and if that forced them out of business and collapsed asset prices by 90%, so be it.

Instead our government took the easy way out. It doubled down on the fraudulent models of the past.

But the models of the past were unsustainable and no amount of gaming arithmetic changes the outcome. Indeed, the laws of mathematics state that the longer you allow an exponential system to run away from you, the worse the correction to reality you must sustain is.

From 2007 to 2013 the government has grown from $2.7 trillion to $3.68 trillion, a 36% increase. Marketable federal debt has gone from $4.96 trillion to $12 trillion, up 120% (that is, more than a clean double.)

At the same time median family income has dropped from $56,000 to $52,000 in 2013 dollars (that is, adjusted for "inflation"), a roughly 7% decrease.

Oh, and that's before taxes.

Everyone talks about there being a "tsunami" of incoming inflation to be expected. The real tsunami is government spending and debt and it already happened. In real-dollar terms the federal government alone is taking from you nearly twice as much today as it was in 2007 and 80% of the minimum-wage-earner's buying power has been destroyed from 1980 to today.

And this is before Obamacare really kicks in.

Then there are the outrageous actions of our government in Benghazi. What we are covering up there has not yet been determined with accuracy, but we don't need the fine details to understand the essence of the act. That our tax money was funding terrorists and other bad guys in some form or fashion, and that we were probably providing them weapons is unfortunately pretty-much beyond dispute.

Never mind the outrageous and unconstitutional acts of the NSA in spying on people.

But perhaps the most-outrageous of all has been Obamacare and the medical "industry", which has used the power of government to utterly destroy any pretext of a fair and free market, creating a system where your medical care costs five times or more what it should. That, incidentally, means that you should be able to pay cash for what yourdeductible is on your insurance (including Medicare!) were that outrageously corrupt system to be exposed to the white-hot light of either the market, prosecution under the Sherman Act or both. Instead of making strides to resolve that outrage, no matter how small, Obama and Congress have doubled down with signature legislation embodying in statute the utter financial rape of our entire society and both sides of the aisle in Congress not only allowed it to happen but continue to allow it to proceed to this very day.

I've been a contributor to the government in the form of taxes my entire adult life. I've written plenty of checks to the IRS, some of which gave me writer's cramp. Never have I claimed a federal or state benefit check -- no food stamps, no welfare, no medicaid, nothing. But I have been poor enough to qualify earlier on in my life -- I was simply too proud to do it, and found some how, some way to not.

I have tolerated running a company in a state where an employee that was fired for not showing up for work was able to collect unemployment, along with several others fired for cause. I paid the increased rate of tax for what were bogus claims on my account and which drove up my tax rates. I complained, but I paid. I have put up with the ignobility of never actually owning real estate, having to rent it every single year from the State and County governments, even though claiming that you have "ownership" of something that you then must pay to keep is an abject fraud. I have been "promised" both Social Security and Medicare even though it is mathematically impossible for me to ever receive them, and have paid taxes to support those programs for decades, while those who made the promises knowing they're false have never faced indictment, prosecution or imprisonment. I have watched our government reach its hands down the crotch of sick 80+ year old leukemia patients claiming they might be "terrorists" while at the same time a man who states openly he attacked other Americans and killed them on a military base in the service of Islam is called an incident of "workplace violence" and those injured or killed are denied just recognition of being harmed in combat against a self-declared terrorist and/or taking heroic action to save others from same.

We all have our point at which we simply refuse to consent. A few, like Joe Stack, take that refusal and turn it into acts of violence. Singularly such acts are futile and amount to nothing more than martyrdom at best and a waste of human capital at worst.

But others, like myself, are unwilling to waste our lives. One can recognize there is a non-violent means of refusal that no government can counteract or put a stop to. It is far more effective and personally-satisfying than active, violent resistance, especially when the latter is singular and most of America is busy watching Dancing With The Stars, unworthy of anything more than being sheep to provide warmth for the "leaders" and occasionally a plate full of mutton.

Some of us have entrepreneurial ideas that might change the world. But the drivers for entrepreneurs are more complex than simply the satisfaction of seeing something we imagine come to fruition. For some it's simply the acquisition of wealth to the exclusion of everything else, but if I wanted to make that my focus in life I'd choose to be a bankster and figure out how to rip people off and get away with it. After all it's far easier to abuse leverage to rob people than it is to build things, in today's environment the odds of going to prison for doing it are somewhere between slim and none, and Slim left the bar an hour ago.

At the end of the day you have to be able to sleep with yourself every night. And unfortunately there can come a point where the cost-to-benefit ratio is simply all out of whack. I've been blessed with both industry and luck; via both I was able to answer the "do you have enough?" question in the affirmative close to twenty years ago. My motivating factors left the realm of making sure I could eat at that point and now the balance has unfortunately shifted to where what I do every day is work rather than joy.

In no small part this shift is due to the zombie-like activity of many in this nation, including in places and among parts of the population where you'd think it would not be present.

I refuse to continue to silently accede to, and actively fund through my drive to acquire that measured in and rewarded by "wealth", the rampant theft and fraud that has and continues to take place in the economic sector, especially in the banking and health care areas of our economy. None of this could ever exist except through the insertion of the guns of government up the noses of the American people.

I can no longer live with being one of the better sources of funding for these abuses. This decision did not come lightly, easily or quickly. But I'm convinced it's the right choice as things stand today.

In short, if you want it in two words, it's this: I'm done.

I choose instead of either active participation through funding of our government's BS or violence to peacefully withdraw my consent. To refuse to labor. To make do with less -- a lot less. I choose to reduce my voluntary contribution to the tax hoard that is misspent or forms the foundation against which our government borrows, giving the proceeds to those who think that doping it up is a grand past-time or shoveling guns, missiles and money to terrorists while groping our grannies, using the very existence of the terrorists we gave the guns and missiles to as justification for what any civilized society would call sexual assault.

The portion of that which I earn by my efforts that I am able to retain in real terms shrinks by the day, and I have concluded that the balance of benefits and harms, especially the harms done to others using my tax dollars, is no longer acceptable to me.

My decision will not change until America changes. Until it wakes up. Until the people demand and the government of this county, this state and this nation recognize everyone's fundamental rights -- that shall not be infringed means what it says, that shall pass no law means what it says and all branches of government stop using taxpayer dollars to arm terrorists, maintain and promote medical monopolies, promote and empower banking cartels while excusing violence and fraud, both financial and corporeal, committed against the people of this nation by those entities and the agents of government itself.

I have seen enough frauds committed by and with the active involvement of government to become convinced that this is what, in the main, my tax dollars are buying. Whether it be Angela Corey's apparent intentional withholding of evidence from George Zimmerman's counsel (and now her firing of one of the people who tried to do the right thing), the rip-off of pension funds and the taxpayer through both looting of the funds and ridiculously over-promised rates of return or the literal thousands of citizens that have had their homes foreclosed upon through blatantly fraudulent process and perjured documents, enough is enough.

I will not accept mere political promises as they are rubber checks without a penalty for being fraudulently issued and over the last 20 years they have always bounced. I instead demand action, indictments, prosecutions, break-ups of monopolies, impeachments, business closures, the end of deficit spending and reform. These are not discussion points, they are demands. They are demands that I have every right to make because it is with the fruits of my hand and mind that this government has foisted upon the American people these frauds, costs and harms. I have written too many large checks to the IRS over the years only to see this crap not only continue but accelerate in the harm done to our nation -- and especially our youth.

I hope, pray for and encourage others to also peacefully withdraw their consent. If enough of us who are the producers in this nation do so then government will have no choice but to bow to our will or collapse. My decision in this regard, if ratified by concurrence of just a small percentage of the population, represents what I believe is the only remaining lawful and peaceful way to accomplish that goal.

If there are an insufficient number of others willing to also participate then my personal conviction that it is unacceptable to fund the screwing of others, whether it be financially or through actual acts of violence, will be demonstrated to be that of a tiny minority.

I accept that this is not only possible, it's likely.

But should that be the case then this nation does not deserve to survive as a Constitutional Republic -- and in the end, it will not, becoming something much darker, uglier and unworthy of any of my support.

There is only one way to know which of the two possibilities is true -- and that is to act, and see who also acts. To lead not through exhortation (or worse, extortion) but rather by example. To see who chooses to not only continue to consent but actively supports the murder of others, physical violence served upon those who simply wish to enjoy their unalienable rights and the financial******of our own citizens en-masse -- especially our children and young adults.

If and when things change I will reconsider my position and lower my middle finger.

But not before.

I therefore choose to reduce the ability of our government to tax my income to as close to an effective zero as I can reasonably achieve in keeping with what I enjoy doing, which is putting before the people a chronology of lies, frauds and scams in the hope that others wake up.

But I will do so on my terms, not someone else's.

Therefore, Tickerforum's donor program has been closed, effective today. Existing gold donor privileges will remain active through their expiration date -- or 12/31, the latest a quarterly donor could expect them to remain active (and the longest donation formally permitted since mid-2010.) Those who set up recurring donations have had their profiles canceled at PayPal.

For those who wish to comment and discuss politically-related topics the politics areas will remain fully-accessible for the present time.

The formerly-anticipated newsletter, coding for which is in fact complete and ready to go, will not be launched. My personal activity in the markets and otherwise, including entrepreneurship, will for nearly all intents and purposes cease by the end of the year.

The Market Ticker will continue to operate in an advertising-supported format but other than macro-level economic reports (e.g. the payroll report, Z1, etc) you will find the balance shifts toward less market-related material and more politically-related material -- simply because I have withdrawn from market-related activity beyond the macro level. There will be fewer articles, and many days with none at all -- a rarity up until now. Old articles will disappear from public view, a change recently implemented and one now filtering through the various Internet archives as they "refresh" their links.

Finally, for those who argue that I should become more involved in political pursuits, no matter what they may be, I will answer your question in advance and save you the time you'd otherwise use to solicit me for such purposes: No.

On a net basis this should reduce my "income footprint" to be within the "Screw You Uncle Sam" range. The comment capacity on The Ticker will be commensurately reduced, as I have observed that for the most part those who are not donors to the system comprise the vast majority of inane (or worse) comments. But for those who can form a cogent opinion and use logic, your input to the discussion will still be possible.

The activities that I choose to undertake in the entrepreneurship area will all be of a long-term capital gain in nature, where the government is able to garner little of what I come up with, and then only on my schedule, not theirs -- a schedule that may well be "never" if I so choose and there is no reform.

It is time for those of us who care to direct our energies in a different way, and I know of no better means of laying that forward than through personal example.

For whatever you deem it to be worth, here's my example.

Oct 1, 2013 - 11:07am

Denninger / GATA

The Denninger piece is just fantastic.

Makes you wonder how many more good people are simply resigning out there without writing up a farewell blog.

(No objections from my side regarding making your post public. If you are on to something it will work in our favor by putting pressure on Thunderlips and co.)

Mr. Fix
Oct 1, 2013 - 11:08am

It looks to me like Karl Denninger has gone Gault.

Thank you for reposting that article, there seems to be a theme developing across society today,

even those that are quite capable of earning a comfortable living are choosing not to, for the simple reason that the confiscatory taxes are being squandered on programs that benefit no one, particularly those that earned them.

The collapse is quickly accelerating.

Oct 1, 2013 - 11:12am

Turdite email to Thunderlips today

Just got this forwarded to me. Pretty funny.

Sent: Tuesday, October 01, 2013 09:16 AM Eastern Standard Time
To: Chilton, Bart
Subject: Today's Smackdown
Commissioner Chilton,

Any comment on this morning's shenanagins in the gold and silver pits? Time to reopen an investigation?

Is credibility important to the CFTC?



And Thunderlips' response:

From: Chilton, Bart <BChilton[at]cftc[dot]gov>
Date: Tue, Oct 1, 2013 at 9:32 AM
Subject: Re: Today's Smackdown
No regulators looking at markets due to government shut down.


Oct 1, 2013 - 11:14am

feel free to make it public

Again you call the specs stupid. This is probably wrong. I see two possibilities (being unaware of other explanations): the comex is a shop selling televisions but buyer and seller are the same, or (i think Ted Butlers explanation) the amount lost by the specs is little against their gains elsewhere. Also, HFT spec trading is computer programmed by not stupid specs. So don't blame it on computers neither.

I hope the opus analysis remains valid: a rally in november/december. Please Turd, keep relating the new developments against the opus idea. Because it's not always easy for me to connect the new dots.

Oct 1, 2013 - 11:18am

No, you're partly right.

No, you're partly right.

For most Large Specs, the gold position is just a dot on the screen. Maybe 1% of their total funds. Where they are stupid is that they are blissfully unaware of how they are getting fleeced. They think it's a fair, free and unmanipulated market. IT'S NOT!

Knowing that the Spec money is just hot-dot-chasing momo and asset allocation computer programming, it's extraordinarily simple for The Cartel Banks to lead them into whichever position they'd like them to be in.

Oct 1, 2013 - 11:19am


At what time is the COT being captured ? Hope theres a fubm afterwards

Oct 1, 2013 - 11:26am

make it public

The silver blogOsphere needs to work cooperatively as we sound money junkies are all in this fight together.

Chilton's email suggests that the regulators actually do their job when they are at work. Also backstops TF's assertions that the metals pits are now the wild west. moreso rather.

Oct 1, 2013 - 11:28am

Take it down

AT this point, having decided not to let go of any of my now-meager stack, I'd like to see them take metals lower than we thought possible. I would like to buy more, cheaper. Cause when I open my safe and look inside, I cant tell the difference from my $20 silver and my $45 silver. Like my kids, each is as shiny and beautiful as the other. And my eagles for which I paid $1375 are lots prettier than the generic bar for which I dropped $1900.

I don't have much dry powder with my new low-stress job, so I am being patient and watching for new lows

Take it down.

Oct 1, 2013 - 11:29am

There is no CoT survey today

Because of the US govt shutdown, there isn't a BPR survey, either.

bim jeam
Oct 1, 2013 - 11:32am

Make it public now.

Make it public now.

bim jeam
Oct 1, 2013 - 11:37am
Oct 1, 2013 - 11:40am

Good chance

China holiday for 3 days, for such a hard working nation they sure take a lot of holidays, US gov shutdown which falsely implies they did anything when they were not shutdown, CFTC can now look the other way in good conscience, what better time to wipe the slate and take gold down to $1178 and lower?

Just get it over with damn it.

Urban Roman
Oct 1, 2013 - 11:45am

Make it public.

The Wild Wild West.

In other words, you might about as well be trading Bitcoin against the Winklevoss brothers.

Oct 1, 2013 - 11:52am

China Holiday

My Chinese colleague just let me know that the Chinese have to work the weekend before and after in order to get a full week off. So the schedule is quite messed up over there right now. However this "work on the weekends" probably doesn't hold true for the exchanges.

Oct 1, 2013 - 11:55am

It's Called Evolution, Gentlemen

Turd thanks for posting. This is an excellent article for all those friends and families that just "don't get it". Clear, logical, actionable, concise.

Oct 1, 2013 - 11:58am


Damn all this analysis for 9 bucks. Come on people wake up! One bad trade and I could pay for a lifetime membership lol

Make it public!!!

Oct 1, 2013 - 12:11pm

Sorry if this has been asked

Sorry if this has been asked before: is there an unsustainable low Gold price verses actually mining the stuff? At what price do the mines shut down if they're not making a profit? Have we already passed that point at below $1300?

Oct 1, 2013 - 12:19pm

Denninger - what did he actually do?

Did I get he's basically taken the steps required to reduce is taxable annual income to the lowest possible rate/zero rate?

I got that impression. Also maybe some very long term cap gains if he ever chooses to execute the trade, which seemed unlikely.

It's intriguing, wish I could do it, but, not there yet. Still hung over from pre-2008 awareness levels.

The comments about do you really own something if you're forced, at the threat of violence, to pay your local and state govts rent in the form of taxes for the privilege really struck home. Compound that with a fraudulent Mortgage holder where lord knows who has your note (and good luck getting it when you finally pay your way out of debt slavery) and it's quite compelling to opt out. Wish I could . . . wish I could.

Big Dutch
Oct 1, 2013 - 12:30pm

At this point I'm 99% certain how things play out.

Gold will be higher come December. I will make this simple as possible.

1) Fed “shocked” everyone with no taper. Why?

2) Longest streak of negative GOFO rates in history as physical gold was acquired by deep pockets. Historical and unprecedented. Why?

3) U.S. banks/JPM net long December Gold. Why?

With with PM markets seemingly broken and open interest at historical lows why would all this be occurring? What could happen by December big enough to send gold much higher? Big enough to send outside money pouring back into PM markets?

ANSWER: The debt ceiling. USA will run out of cash at some point after October 17th if nothing is done. Keep in mind U.S. Treasury has not been able to issue bonds/T-bills since mid-May… Yet yields have gone up in spite of no new issues. Imagine what will happen once The Treasury starts issuing them again after the debt ceiling is raised. Higher yields means bond prices go down. Bond market crashes cause equity markets to crash.

Stock markets////bond markets////commodity markets…. That’s it, there are no other liquid markets.

So if stock and bond markets go down…. what is the one market left to go up? The one market to absorb the money fleeing from the two others?

Answer: Commodity markets. PMs.

Our days of waiting are truly coming to a close. It won’t be long.

Oct 1, 2013 - 12:40pm

@Big Dutch

Don't forget this gem:

Can you source the claim UST hasn't been able (allowed, legally?) to sell bonds or T-bills since May? I don't doubt you but want to read about it. This is why I'm confused:

Is that something different from bonds or t-bills? I know we issue what - bonds, bills and notes? Is that right?

In the absence of foreign entities buying US debt issuance, there's the Fed - which even Treasury is now admitting is the arbiter of the market in their own internal presentations.

Can't the Fed just continue to print/buy/roll? QE4EVA? Why not? Not like we're anywhere close to Japan . . . yet.

Big Dutch tread_w_care
Oct 1, 2013 - 12:44pm

@ tread_w_care

I hear you. Been looking for absolute irrefutable evidence Treasury has not issued. Maybe someone can find it, but in times past once debt ceiling is hit they have stopped as our debt IS bonds/t-bills. Closest I can find is this article in NY Times that states:

"In the event of a default, the United States’ borrowing costs would probably rise and continue at somewhat higher levels even after the Treasury Department returned to new issuance on the bond market, causing a direct hit to taxpayers."

Maybe someone can find something better for our group. I welcome all critiques.

Big Dutch
Oct 1, 2013 - 12:49pm

I think

They can issue new debt in equal amounts to that which has matured. Just not increase total outstanding.

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