Gold & Politics & being a Tracker

96
Sun, Sep 29, 2013 - 10:12am

Are there political cyclical tracks left behind in the price of inflation defense assets like for example gold?

This is not an investigation in the normal sense as will become clear below. More like a presentation of some relationships which may or may not be primarily inter-causal. It’s not looking at any particular presidential or royal person, but because I will use dollar based gold charts, it appears to focus upon the US. I said “appears” because .... well ... what one politician does in for example the US, maybe another politician in .... oh ... let’s say Japan or the UK or even the EU ... that other politician just might consider that thing a clever thing to do too. You know: birds of a feather and so on.

So rather than read all the newspapers, and blogs, and political biographies, and cross reference their contents to decisions, which create events, which make investors alter their asset allocation decisions I decided to take a different approach. One disliked by many for good and bad reasons, but you know it works too.

If you look at them in a certain way, presidents and congresses and parliaments are large societal collective organisms. I like to think of them that way for research purposes. It’s enabling for me. They are so big, they might be considered the elephants of society.

Let’s imagine we are trying to locate elephants hidden in the bush. We can do it many ways.

How about we take the secret service “James Bond” approach. “Q” will build us an artificial elephant with cameras and microphones hidden inside. It will cost a vast amount, but what the heck, the taxman just gets us more money when the last lot is gone! Our drone elephant will make itself know to the herd with a credible cover story and infiltrate the elephants, and relay regular reports back so we can study their behaviour, motivation, and private conversations. And if it’s discovered we can point to the made in China sticker carefully stuck on it’s backside and make a plausible denial!

But the voice on the phone said to me: “Sorry the secret service are busy, and won’t help. They’re all off doing ... uh .... something ... err .... somewhere right now. Please call later and we can set up a meeting.”

We could take the NSA approach! There is a private company Blackie, Blackbridge, Blackpebble or something like that and they can recruit this wonderful force of sniper taggers just for us. A contractor (no government employee would be allowed – it’s the law!) will shoot a GPS location device into each elephant, and then we can get NASA to launch a satellite (it’s small dammit ... the budget’s no problem!) which detects the tags, and relay that information to our HQ bunker in .... well I sure would like to tell you, but you don’t have clearance. Yes. I can see that that would work.

Or alternatively we could be naturalists. We would buy the latest behavioural research on elephant and their habits. Then we would know what they do, and where they tend to go at different times. That would narrow down the possible locations to only a few, and we send out our scouts and viola!

That sounds likely to succeed.

How about this. We make like predators. Those lazy lions and crocodiles are taking it easy all day at the water hole. Those big elephants need to drink a lot and they’re sure to come to the lions & crocs eventually when they have to. We could wait there too. But our elephant stakeout operatives might get mud on them, and dirty their suits, or be eaten by a lion. Health & Safety Dept would be sure to nix it. That one’s right out!

How about this? We become like trackers.

We get someone to follow the tracks left behind by all the Presidents and Politicians, I mean the elephants of course, and see where they went and what happened in those places. But the legal department says this has a problem. Like for example if the presidential elephants all go to a certain place, and a whole load of stuff happens, then we won’t have a smoking gun! They can deny they had anything to do with, I mean they had means, motive, opportunity, but where ‘s the witness?

Well if it’s just our own private investigation, we won’t need one. Will we? So trackers we are then. Just for this article you understand! We will follow the massive piles of political – I mean elephant - poop until we find .... err ... it’s source I guess. Also: that last sentence works on so many levels ....

And so dear reader, after my lengthy preamble I give you your first elephant sized footprint: the 4 year Presidential cycle in US gold prices:

Well I find that interesting.

Plausible denial and the scientific method – you figure which - requires that I mention there is absolutely no proof this has anything whatsoever to do with the activities of anybody from anywhere, and the 4 years length is circumstantial and unproven.

I hear a little voice saying: “But if there actually is a Presidential cycle in gold, well what about Presidents who serve a second term eh? Gotcha! Now you had better retract your insinuations mate”

Well my reply as an expert tracker of invisible giants would be to reply something like this: Maybe. I think I had better look and see if there are other footprints out there in the ... err ... bush.

So let’s see. A second president or parliament would not have such a long “bedding-in time delay” I mean, their connections are already made. Their hiring and firing of crony/friendly/supporting experts is already done during the previous term. So what exactly are we looking for? They will “get into their groove” much faster the second time compared to the first, as it were. With less delay. So maybe there could be another cycle which could be double the length of the 4 year cycle, but a little shorter than that. And maybe it’s only there some of the time ... like when a second term administration is creating piles of poop as it does whatever it does while lurking in the bush. Am I getting my creatures mixed up do you think?

Let’s see. I found this 7 ¾ year cycle in gold. I wonder what causes that?

Moving on there seem to be many political forces out there which carry on activities which influence the price of gold. Congressional elections leave their footprints every two years it seems.

Who would have thought that would be there?

If one were to integrate the political components of the gold price movement what would one find? The answer is something like this:

I thought you might like to see that for laughs. It’s funny, yes? Aaah, but is it funny ha ha or funny peculiar? You be the judge. Who the joke gets played on matters a lot in such things.

Not that there is any proven connection between the fine upstanding bodies and personages mentioned above and the price of gold. I’m sure there are many thousands of intermediate steps between the two. Sort of like friends of cousins of contractors of contractors of contractors I expect. Now if only elephants wouldn’t create such a gigantic mess my job would be so much cleaner. I suppose one can dream.

argentus maximus

.

The author posts daily commentary on the gold and silver markets in the TFMR forum: The Setup For The Big Trade. More information about the author can be found here: RhythmNPrice.

About the Author

  96 Comments

murphy
Sep 29, 2013 - 10:22am

Proud to be a #2

Proud to be a #2 on AM's writings

Bollocks
Sep 29, 2013 - 10:31am

Thrud!

thrud?

SilverSurfers
Sep 29, 2013 - 11:03am

Fourth the Umpteenth Time

THIS HAS TO TOP THE LIST.

Politics and gridlock. House votes to postpone obamacare 1 year with continuing resolution to fund gov to Dec. LMAO, these clowns!! So, I guess it goes to conference? What a show, totalitarian proposers and Cave-Ins, meh. So, if it cant reach a compromise in conference, gov shut downs. We can only hope, I suppose. They have to fund to government, or the whole rotten house of totalitarian socialistic fascist cards comes tumbling down, or postpone obamacare. Question is, will the house controlled by the CAVE-IN party, CAVE IN again. Lines are drawn along party lines. Dems have the out, the cave-in party made us do it. So, the dem senate strips out obamacare defunding and funds the government, and the house parlays that into postpoine obamacare 1 year or shut down the government. Freakin tennis match, ok, ball is back in the senate court of gesters. What a circus!!! YOU CANT MAKE THIS STUFF UP.

Video unavailable

We need miracles or shut down, what a choice by the clowns.

Howard Roark
Sep 29, 2013 - 11:07am

Good

Graphs! But here in euroland I guess that, with so many elephants, the graphs would be messy! ;)

Sorry to insist: euro Turdites, any ideas as to the co-op buy?

Salut,

HR

Mr. Fix
Sep 29, 2013 - 11:14am

Holy crap, I haven't gotten first in many months!

Time to read the article, something to do on a quiet Sunday.

argentus maximus:

Excellent post, our Congress Critters and President (colossal elephants) are leaving massive footprints everywhere they go.

This is the kind of analysis I enjoy the most, by taking the personalities of the elephants into consideration, a lot of conclusions can be drawn. Of course, they will deny it all, but all too often, the evidence is irrefutable.

By the way, sometimes the footprints are harder to find than the monster piles of stinking poop they leave. All the crap they spew can often obscure their tracks.

(Just trying to help)

Sep 29, 2013 - 11:16am

Shut it down

I wonder if the bums voted to continue the SNAP and EBT programs while they are shutdown. If my obamaphone shuts off then I'll be really mad. Interesting that they don't want to get the military upset at them...

Trafficant, Weiner, Blagojevich, Obama are not the outliers. They are the mainstream of American politics. The sooner our citizens recognize that 95% of these politicians are incompetent, hubristic, self-serving, greedy, corrupt, liars, the better off we will all be. Shut it down and let the people see it.

And here is a site that lists corrupt senators I knew nothing about.

Mr. Fix
Sep 29, 2013 - 11:24am

Some more interesting chart stuff :)

DEEPCASTER: PROFIT FROM A DANGEROUSLY FAT LEFT TAIL

SEPTEMBER 29, 2013 BY THE DOC LEAVE A COMMENT

“This looks to me like 2007 all over again, but even worse. All the previous imbalances are still there. “
“’Dangerously Fat Left Tail Risk’: the probability that an Investment will incur losses more than three Standard Deviations from the Mean Loss Probability.”
One Recent Most Important Development is Quite Ominous indeed. This Development has created an increasingly Dangerous Fat Left Tail.
Specifically, that Ominous Development indicates that the Probabilities of another Financial Crisis, with concomitant Negative Consequences, are Increasing. [Read more...]

pontiac
Sep 29, 2013 - 11:24am

Bullocks, Rob Kirby, and Eric deCarbonnel

On the previous "Petition" thread, Bullocks posted an excellent interview of Rob Kirby by Lars Schall. One amazing point is that deCarbonnel has disappeared! His web site is still there at marketskeptics.com with all of his material. I used to follow Eric as he was fearless in exposing the fraud of our government.

He posted a 5 part video expose' of the ESF 0n june 3, 2011. (on which he had done extensive research) His last post was Jan 22, 2012 and no one knows his whereabouts. Is there someone out there with good connections? Could you contact the NSA and find out what happened to him?

Gold Dog
Sep 29, 2013 - 11:42am

Number nine....

...number nine...

Orange
Sep 29, 2013 - 12:03pm

Sale

Off topic, but some of you might be interested.

Bought three pairs of pants/trousers from Lands End using promotional code Grand and pin # 2055 to get an additional 30% off and free shipping.

Original price of $69 each on sale for $22.99 with $13 in shipping plus taxes.

End price for all three shipped and taxed for about $58 after entering code.

I hate shopping and hate paying anything near full price.

Have a great day.

https://www.landsend.com/shop/mens/-/N-fz6

Key Economic Events Week of 11/11

11/12 Three Fed Goon speeches
11/13 8:30 ET CPI
11/13 11:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/14 8:30 ET PPI
11/14 Four Fed Goon speeches
11/14 10:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
11/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 11/11

11/12 Three Fed Goon speeches
11/13 8:30 ET CPI
11/13 11:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/14 8:30 ET PPI
11/14 Four Fed Goon speeches
11/14 10:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
11/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/4

11/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
11/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
11/6 Speeches by Goons Williams, Harker and Evans
11/8 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
11/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 10/28

10/30 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 2:00 ET FOMC fedlines
10/30 2:30 ET CGP presser
10/31 8:30 ET Personal Income & Spending
10/31 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/1 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
1/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Forum Discussion

by CongAu, 2 hours 31 min ago
by UncleFester, 2 hours 49 min ago
by Green Lantern, 5 hours 12 min ago
randomness