Pre Fedlines Open Thread

Wed, Sep 18, 2013 - 10:24am

Only about 3.5 hours to go before all the fun starts. Here's a thread to get you ready.

Just two charts so that we're all on the same page. Again, once we broke down last week and then closed below $1320, it became clear that a minimum downside was somewhere near $1270. Might we see that later today? I hope not but it's certainly NOT out of the question.

The main item of interest, though, is the obvious attempt to hammer price last evening. When this type of move is employed by The Forces of Darkness ahead of the news event, it's almost always a fakeout. Why? Because the bullion banks, as agents of the central banks, likely already know the outcome. By crashing price, they are attempting to draw in as many fresh Spec shorts as possible, into which they cover and BUY. We saw this identical pattern back on 9/5, the day before the latest BLSBS release. We'll see how it turns out this time but, I must tell you, last night's action makes me quite optimistic about the ultimate outcome of today's craziness.

One more thing...For subscribers, this weeks Access2Access event has been scheduled. It will be a webinar with Andy Hoffman of Miles Franklin. Just like last week, participants will be able to submit the questions and Andy will answer them live during the presentation. If you want to be a part of it, you can register by clicking here:

Have a fun day!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Sep 18, 2013 - 9:54pm


Too late. The cat is out of the bag.

Stick save for the bond market for now.....reigns will let loose on G/S.


Sep 18, 2013 - 9:50pm

The next 24 hours may be very telling

The central banks cannot let gold rise or at least rise in an unmanaged manner. That would be the message that fiat currency is collapsing. After the big move today, they cannot have a big increase tomorrow. Should be interesting.

Sep 18, 2013 - 9:50pm

Silver breaks into the memory storage market

Silver is well-known for its uses in jewellery, coins, electronics and even medicine. But, until now, it has never been used as an ingredient in memory storage devices.

The latest report by the Silver Institute explains that the precious metal has started to being used in the developing technology know as Resistive Random-Access Memory (RRAM or ReRAM).

<img class="alignright wp-image-750846" title="Silver breaks into the memory storage market" src="" alt="Silver breaks into the memory storage market" width="414" height="372"/>ReRAM works just like a miniscule battery cell and “store[s] data through changes in the electrical resistance of the cell.” Put simply, the “presence or absence of an electrical charge can be used to store bits of information.”

Although not all kinds of ReRAM used silver, those that do have a number of advantages over flash memory, the one most commonly used in smartphones and tablets, says the study.

ReRAm is both more durable and requires far less energy per write than the doomed NAND flash, for which experts are desperately trying to find a suitable replacement.

Samples may be available next year, with a commercial launch by the end of 2014 or early 2015.

Sep 18, 2013 - 9:43pm

A Concise History of Gold in China 中国黄金报

China Gold News

A Concise History of Gold in China

China’s Gold: The Eternal Treasure

By Sang Shang,

Translated from Chinese by China Gold News Blog

China is a “gold poor” country. The total amount of gold held by both private citizens and the government reserves amounts to between 4000-5000 tons of gold. Compared to the global average per capita gold held by private citizens, China’s per capita gold is about 1/10 of the average. Although China was the first company to exceed $USD 1 Trillion in foreign exchange reserves, the fraction of these reserves in gold is very small. Last year’s announced number was only a bit over 600 tons. Compared to America, Germany, France and even Italy this is much less. In terms of overall rankings, China ranks about tenth place or so in terms of gold reserves.

Thinking of ancient times, before the Qin and Han dynasties, seen and recorded gold rewards or transactions frequently ranged from a few dozen to 100 jin (a jin is about 16.1 troy ounces). After the Han Dynasty, this level of abundance was never seen again. There are two theories regarding this occurrence. The first says that what the ancients so-called gold was actually copper and not really gold. The second theory is that the previous riches of the ancients were frequently hidden by their owners in the chaos that surrounded the collapse of the Han Dynasty (about 220 AD). According to this theory, most of the pre-Han gold disappeared or was hidden underground. No matter what you believe, it is a fact that after the Han Dynasty the amount of gold in China has continuously been very little.

In recent times, there is a complicated legal case due to the fact that the retreating Nationalist Government took all of the gold reserves to Taiwan after the revolution. Relatively reliable estimates of the amount of gold shipped range around 2.77 million liang (similar to tael; a liang is 50 g and about 1.61 troy ounces; total about 139 metric tons). The highest estimate is 28 million liang (about 1400 metric tons). How much gold is 2.77 million liang? About the total domestic gold production of mainland China from 1949 to 1964. For this reason, it can be said that the current Chinese renminbi rose from a start of only about 6000 liang (0.3 tons) of gold.

Before fleeing to Taiwan, the Nationalists forced citizens around China to hand over their gold bracelets, hidden stashes of gold, and silver bars which were all declared illegal. Soldiers entered private residences to search for gold that had not been turned in. Those who were caught were sent to jail. It is said, a man at that time named Mei Lanfang had skillfully collected several hundred liang of gold over the years and after turning in all his gold an unaccounted gold bracelet was discovered.

After the establishment of the communist government, the People’s Republic was forced to face this serious problem of a paucity of foreign exchange. There was neither gold nor US dollars. This continued to the beginning of the land reforms and according to the records at the lowest point there were only a total of about a few tens of millions of US dollars. However, if a country wants to develop it must receive large imports of needed products. At that time, except with other communist countries with which it was easy to barter with, dealing with Western countries it was necessary to get hard currency. In order to get hard currency there were two main methods: one was to save food and clothing to export for foreigners to buy in order to obtain foreign exchange. There are two examples of this. One was two years after the “Great Leap Forward” although the country was starving, grain was still exported. The other was fishing for large amounts of prawn in the waters near China. However, the vast majority of Chinese were not familiar with how to handle prawns.

Another method of gaining foreign exchange was to once again search homes for gold. After the founding of the People’s Republic, gold trading was placed under a state monopoly and it was illegal for private individuals to trade gold between themselves. They could only sell it to the People’s Bank of China (the Chinese central bank). Although in theory it was still legal for private individuals to hold gold, in the political climate of the times, to privately hold gold and not support the state programs had become unconscionable and evidence of lacking confidence in the New China. Under these circumstances, the hidden private gold of Chinese citizens once again flowed to the state.

There are a few difficult to verify figures on the amount of gold. It is said in 1950 alone, Guandong province turned over more than 7 million liang (about 350 metric tons). No matter how you calculate it, it is an undisputable fact that for the 30 years after the revolution, the gold held by citizens went to the government. This gold was basically all used to import goods and was not stored as reserves. Therefore, twenty years ago, most Chinese people had never seen gold of any type with their own eyes and it almost became a metal of story and legend.

Since China historically had very little gold, therefore gold did not have the opportunity to become a mainstream medium of exchange or become minted into a standard coin. China also is short of silver and before silver was imported in large amounts China’s most important coin was copper. First there was a green copper coin and later the yellow copper coin emerged. Therefore, in the flowering period of Western Han power and prosperity, most of the money in the warehouses was described as...(more)

Translated news and views on the Chinese gold market and not an extension of the "China Gold News" 中国黄金报 newspaper from China.

Sep 18, 2013 - 9:38pm

The Land of Milk & Honey...40% Thrown Away

Sept. 18, 2013, 1:24 p.m. EDT

Why 40% of U.S. food is thrown away

Confusing expiration dates blamed for billions of dollars in uneaten food

Turns out, it’s the dates on food expiration labels that are bad. A lack of regulation of food labels is a major factor leading to 40% of all food going to waste in the U.S., a new study finds.

Over 90% of Americans may be prematurely tossing food because they misinterpret expiration dates, according to the study by Harvard Law School’s Food Law and Policy Clinic and the Natural Resources Defense Council, a non-profit environmental action group. Phrases like “sell by,” “use by,” and “best before” are poorly regulated and often misinterpreted, the report found: “It is time for a well-intended but wildly ineffective food date labeling system to get a makeover.”

Faulty expiration-date rules are confusing at best, says Dana Gunders, a NRDC staff scientist with the food and agriculture program. “Sell by” dates are actually for stores to know how much shelf life products have they are not meant for consumers or to indicate the food is bad. “Best before” and “use by” dates are for consumers, but they are manufacturers’ estimates as to when food has reached its peak.

Wasted food is a big problem in the U.S. An estimated $900 million worth of expired food is removed from the supply chain every year, the report found. And although not all of this is due to confusion over food expiration labels, Gunders says a casual survey of grocery store workers found that even employees are not always trained to distinguish between different kinds of expiration dates. (The National Grocers Association, the national trade association representing the retail and wholesale grocers, was not immediately available for comment.)

All the wasted food adds up: As much as 40% of food goes uneaten in the U.S., according to estimates from the Department of Agriculture and the Environmental Protection Agency. Americans are, in other words, throwing out the equivalent of $165 billion in wasted food every year, a separate analysis by the NRDC found. In fact, one study estimates, just 15% of all this wasted food would be enough to feed more than 25 million Americans every year. And one in six Americans currently lacks a secure supply of food, Gunders says.

Grocery bills are the biggest household expense. The average American family of four spends $632 to $1,252 per month on grocery bills, according to a recent Department of Agriculture “Cost of Food” survey. But there are ways to keep track of wasted food. Composting, for example, forces people to actually see how much food they’re throwing away and how much money they’re wasting...(more)

Sep 18, 2013 - 9:32pm


King World news is usually very frustrating to me. They just get into an interview and then they stop, out of time? leaving more questions than answers (or even speculation)...just more questions. Whet my appetite and then fail to deliver the main course.

But I am ever hopeful that metals will rise. If TPTB are able to maintain control, then I am educating and passing on a legacy to my children...but it looks ever gloomier for the world economy each day.

China may provide the new elites. But will they be less sociopathic than the Western power elite? I think not.

I hear you CA lawyer. I am prepping because I maintain that the US is inexorably headed to third world status.

Sep 18, 2013 - 9:17pm
Sep 18, 2013 - 9:11pm
Sep 18, 2013 - 9:09pm

More on Chinese Gold, Silver and Wealth

China, Silver, Gold, and the World

This will be rather involved and worth knowing. To understand China and precious metals, you must understand a culture that is thousands of years old. Culture, not political system. Political systems come and go, but the basic culture is relatively unchanged.

To understand, in this case, gold and silver and China, you must understand first and foremost that gold and silver have been, currency for six and a half thousand years. Gold is the money of Kings, silver the money of gentlemen, barter the money of peasants, and debt the money of slaves. This adage held true and holds true to this day.

Going back to the first real contact between China and Europeans, not the intermediary of the Silk Road, you find that in the late 1400′s into the early to mid-1500′s the discovery of the New World and the wealth it contained. The Spanish (and by default the then subject country of Portugal) jealously guarded the routes to the riches of the New World and Far East. Fernando Magellan discovers the Pass of Magellan in 1520, making stabs westward into the Pacific possible. This shortened the travel from Europe into Asia. It allowed the Spanish, supported and driven by the church, to expand into the exotic Far East, always driven by greed and power.

Now, China and Japan have had contact for centuries prior to Europeans arriving on the scene. Each had things the other wanted. The Chinese wanted silver. The Japanese wanted silks. Because of a state of open hostility between the Japanese and Chinese, trade was limited at best. Enter the Spanish. They made contacts with both countries and arranged to become neutral intermediaries for trade, for a fee of course. Spain grew richer, as did China, and Japan.

The use of silver ingots (taels) for currency can be traced back to 206 BC, the beginning of the Han Dynasty. Even though during the Soong Dynasty, the Chinese became the first country in known history to issue paper currency, trade was still done in silver. Paper currency fell to the wayside, only to be revisited in the Ming Dynasty from 1368 to 1450. It was discontinued due to rampant inflation.

Now, in China, large and small trade transactions have always, since the first portion of their recorded civilization, been performed in taels of silver. The accepted Imperial Treasury Standard weight of a tael was the Kùpíng Tael – 1.27 troy ounces of silver.

The common use money was a copper alloy called (translated into) Copper Cash. This was the everyday currency used for gambling, minor purchases, etc. Significant and large transactions and trades were always performed in taels of silver. Always. Gold was the province of the Emperor or Empress and used to transact business on behalf of the state.

Silver has represented wealth and currency for over 2000 years in China. It is only after the PRC was formed, and the ownership of gold or silver made illegal that this stopped. The PRC made it illegal for Chinese citizens to buy, own, or hold silver or gold for only 50 years. Now, the PRC encourages the people to buy gold and silver. The Chinese have a culture, thousands of years old, centered around wealth, power from wealth, and the accumulation of wealth. The Chinese people have gone precious metals crazy!

In 1950, China had next to nothing in gold reserves. Today they rank 10th in the world. That is only the government holdings being counted, that is not counting privately held bullion.

Last year, the Chinese government banned silver from being exported and by July silver was being promoted as an “investment” to the Chinese public on the 6 o’clock news.

You do the math– How does that affect global demand if just 10% of Chinese begin to perceive silver as an investment?

From what I’m seeing from the financial reports I read, the Chinese government is engaging in one of the most explosive financial marketing campaigns in history. Instead of Maoist propaganda, though, they are attempting to re-engage the Chinese public in the gold/silver markets.

Simply put, the Chinese government is trying to trigger a national gold and silver craze…and it’s working.

You can buy silver bullion or gold bars at any Chinese bank in four different sizes. Wealth management products tied to gold are skyrocketing in popularity, and the public can now instantly buy, sell, and trade gold 24 hours a day in five different forms with eight different types of services.

Also, for the first time in history, Chinese investors can even trade gold abroad (in London) with the swipe of a “Lucky Gold” card.

What about China’s food supply, you ask? Yes, China imports a lot of food, tonnes of it, annually.

Good question, but moot. When the world fiat system implodes, gold and silver will be the currency used to buy and/or sell oil, food, services, goods, etc. When you hold massive wealth ahead of the collapse, the collapse itself looks less threatening. Besides which, with their infrastructure taking a minor hit when fiats implode, they will be standing ready to buy food from whomever needs to sell it.

The BRIC countries – Brazil, Russia, India, and China already have unilateral trade agreements in place. Brazil produces and exports tonnes of beef, soybeans, wood and wood products, fish, petrochemicals, steel, automobiles, aircraft, and consumer durables that account for nearly 36% of their GDP. That is just Brazil. Combine that with the exports from India and Russia, and you have demand met by supply. All China does is change their Chinese made goods into export from China to Brazil, India, and Russia, and any other country who wants cheap manufactured goods for precious metals, food, oil, or whatever.

Losing the US import/export market would not hurt China as badly as most folks think. The signs are showing that the PRC has known about and been planning for the collapse of the fiat system since it was formed. Their hand may have been forced a little with the collapsing of the US and EU economies, but not by much. Right now they are playing economic games trying to buy some extra time, but it is completely a hurry up and stockpile kind of maneuver. They are not desperate, they are just really wanting to have their “larder” a little fuller. They know they need more of what they have, but could muddle through if they have to.

China is rabidly encouraging and expanding governmental and public gold and silver consumption in preparation for a massive crash of the worldwide fiat systems. The handwriting on the wall is exceptionally clear. The financial world as we know it is about to implode upon itself. China will come out smelling less like poo and more like a rose, with massive precious metals backed wealth to hold onto world superpower status. I pray fervently that I am wrong, but the signs are abundantly clear to me.

Mr. Fix
Sep 18, 2013 - 9:03pm

Marc Faber Warns

Marc Faber Warns "The Endgame Is A Total Collapse - But From A Higher Diving Board Now"

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/18/2013 - 19:31

With rumors this evening of the White House calling around for support for Yellen, Marc Faber's comments today during a Bloomberg TV interview are even more prescient. Fearing that Janet Yellen "would make Bernanke look like a hawk," Faber explains that he is not entirely surprised by today's no-taper news since he believes we are now in QE-unlimited and the people at the Fed "never worked a single-day in the business of ordinary people," adding that "they don't understand that if you print money, it benefits basically a handful of people." Following today's action, Faber is waiting to seeing if there is any follow-through but notes that "Feds have already lost control of the bond market. The question is when will it lose control of the stock market." The Fed, he warns, has boxed themselves in and "the endgame is a total collapse, but from a higher diving board."

Subscribe or login to read all comments.


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 8/10

8/10 10:00 ET Job openings
8/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
8/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Idx
8/13 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/13 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 8/3

8/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
8/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
8/5 8:15 ET ADP employment July
8/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
8/6 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/7 8:30 ET BLSBS for July
8/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 7/27

7/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
7/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
7/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
7/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
7/30 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess
7/31 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
7/31 8:30 ET Core inflation
7/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/20

7/21 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
7/21 2:00 ET Senate vote on Judy Shelton
7/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 8:30 ET Jobless claims
7/23 10:00 ET Leading Economic Indicators
7/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for July

Key Economic Events Week of 7/13

7/13 11:30 ET Goon Williams speech
7/13 1:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
7/14 8:30 ET CPI for June
7/14 2:30 ET Goon Bullard speech
7/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
7/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
7/16 11:00 ET Goon Williams again
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 7/6

7/6 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
7/6 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
7/7 10:00 ET Job openings
7/9 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
7/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
7/10 8:30 ET PPI for June

Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
7/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 6/22

6/22 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
6/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
6/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for June
6/23 10:00 ET New home sales
6/25 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
6/26 8:30 ET Core inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 6/15

6/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/16 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/16 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US Senate
6/16 4:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia speech
6/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
6/17 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US House
6/18 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
6/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/19 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
6/19 1:00 pm ET CGP and Mester conference

Key Economic Events Week of 6/8

6/9 10:00 ET Job openings
6/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
6/10 8:30 ET CPI for May
6/10 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/10 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
6/11 8:30 ET PPI for May
6/12 8:30 ET Import price index
6/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Forum Discussion

by argentus maximus, Aug 8, 2020 - 2:03pm
by argentus maximus, Aug 8, 2020 - 10:46am
by jack3617, Aug 7, 2020 - 5:51pm
by Titus Andronicus, Aug 7, 2020 - 5:13pm
by jack3617, Aug 7, 2020 - 5:06pm
by Steve S, Aug 7, 2020 - 1:59pm