Pre Fedlines Open Thread

Wed, Sep 18, 2013 - 10:24am

Only about 3.5 hours to go before all the fun starts. Here's a thread to get you ready.

Just two charts so that we're all on the same page. Again, once we broke down last week and then closed below $1320, it became clear that a minimum downside was somewhere near $1270. Might we see that later today? I hope not but it's certainly NOT out of the question.

The main item of interest, though, is the obvious attempt to hammer price last evening. When this type of move is employed by The Forces of Darkness ahead of the news event, it's almost always a fakeout. Why? Because the bullion banks, as agents of the central banks, likely already know the outcome. By crashing price, they are attempting to draw in as many fresh Spec shorts as possible, into which they cover and BUY. We saw this identical pattern back on 9/5, the day before the latest BLSBS release. We'll see how it turns out this time but, I must tell you, last night's action makes me quite optimistic about the ultimate outcome of today's craziness.

One more thing...For subscribers, this weeks Access2Access event has been scheduled. It will be a webinar with Andy Hoffman of Miles Franklin. Just like last week, participants will be able to submit the questions and Andy will answer them live during the presentation. If you want to be a part of it, you can register by clicking here:

Have a fun day!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


John Galt
Sep 18, 2013 - 10:53am

@ Fix

A smiley face? Is that another manifesto?

(just kidding!)

Sep 18, 2013 - 10:55am


Absolutely no doubt in my mind that the BB's already know what's going to come out of today's Fed announcement. There is nary a crumb of honesty and integrity remaining in this market. (Sadly the word 'market' really no longer applies to whatever this is.)

Sep 18, 2013 - 11:12am

Berlusconi Address And Bernanke Press Conf. to coincide

Berlusconi Address Over His Expulsion Vote And Bernanke Press Conference To Coincide

"what is most curious is that the vote, the Berlusconi expulsion vote and nationwide address, as well as the Bernanke press conference, which is also due at 2:30pm Eastern, will all coincide. "

Urban Roman
Sep 18, 2013 - 11:19am

Raise your hand if you expect

Raise your hand if you expect that, 500 milliseconds before they release the FOMC minutes, some mysterious party will have an irresistible urge to sell half the silver and gold that is postulated to exist intermingled with the nickel-iron core of the earth.

(It will not be an act of rehypothecation, it will be repostulation.)

Sep 18, 2013 - 11:19am

Beyond belief

Goldman Sachs recommends gold producers hedge their output

by Lawrence Williams,

In a final note on their latest commodities research on gold, Goldman Sachs analysts, Jeffrey Currie and Damien Courvalin suggest that gold miners should hedge their output and lock in 2013 prices and beyond, given the investment bank’s medium term forecast of gold falling further to ,050 an ounce. But maybe producers should be wary about hedging at current levels and may recall the Goldman inspired hedging activity by Ashanti Goldfields back in 1999 which led to the miner’s demise and it being swallowed up subsequently by AngloGold when the gold price moved against it. (As Wikipedia puts it: In 1999, the company [Ashanti] succumbed to an ill-executed gold price hedge led by Goldman Sachs, which drove it to the brink of bankruptcy). Thus Goldman Sachs is not always right, although as we’ve mentioned before sometimes its analyses and subsequent recommendations move the market on their own, such is the aura surrounding the bank’s activities and advice.

Read More @

Oh they are desperate!!

Sep 18, 2013 - 11:21am

Just Thinking About the Headlines

As much as I was hoping to get some work done today, it sure seems that my intentions may be futile. TF, before you started blogging your posts, I did not have this problem. Instead, I would have cared less about the "Fed," or any of the Washington gibberish littering the headlines. This is what got me thinking this morning.

What happened to all the past sensational headlines, all just from the top of my head:

(1) Iran Nuclear Ambitions

(2) N. Korea Nuclear Ambitions

(3) Syria Civil War/Chemical Weapons

(4) Fukishima

(5) Cyprus Banking mess/ EU Banking Mess

And these, taken from an internet site that tracks world headlines:

NSA Spying Scandal; World Flooding; Savar Building Collapse in Bangladesh; Resignation of Pope Benedict XVI; Kiss Nightclub Fire in Brazil; Horse Meat Scandal; Murder of Odin Lloyd; USA Ammunition Shortage; Fluoridated Water Controversy

What about all these?

Is the Fed meeting, and its possible ostensible decision on tapering worth all this attention and headline grabbing? If yes, does it not then clearly demonstrate the nature of our modern fiat financial system, all of us beholden to a mysterious governing cabal of extremely powerful men backed by extremely powerful figures in shadowy positions? If not, then why is the world so focused upon it?

More than anything else, because the fed's decision is so widely anticipated and will be acted upon by countless financial algorithms and firms in the various trading arenas, then by simple logic, it would follow that most anyone with a simple amount of intelligence would naturally focus intently upon the pending decision. However, none and I mean none of the sheeple have a clue, nor are they remotely paying attention or interested in the slightest about what if anything may be said by the bearded puppet Bernanke.

To me, that disconnect, that it exists, and is so pure and so beyond argument, is damning proof that the financial system is rigged for the powers that be beyond all hope for anyone who does not have a seat at the inner table. We are all just observers, some more knowledgeable than others, about what is really going on.

So, as I sit in rapt fascination trying to predict what will happen, I come at it from a bit of a different angle. To me, it really doesn't matter whether there is a taper, a tape worm, or a tequila shot (speaking of worms . . .).

What does matter, and what I try to focus on, are the various incentives each of the individuals have who happen to be sitting at the inner table. Understand the incentives and one can understand the motivations regarding what actions are taken, by whom, and to what end.

In that regard, is fascinating to prognosticate about selection of the new Fed chairman. The new blog post I'm writing for tonight's publication will deal with this concept.

Meanwhile, how about them Dodgers?


Sep 18, 2013 - 11:24am

Miners ...

Watch the HUI for clues. The miners can't and won't stay at this level.

BagOfGoldUrban Roman
Sep 18, 2013 - 11:28am

Urban Roman...

Can you see me raising my hand?...Yup!...Lots of volatility today...& the EE has unleashed the...

Bag Of Gold

Sep 18, 2013 - 11:29am

hi turd

nice to see you in print out here. I am with Cal Lawyer except that I will take the the tequilla first ( for my tape worm) of course and taper off later.

Sep 18, 2013 - 11:33am

hand raised

Except I think they started last night as TF has been mentioning.

My guess on today's Fed is a minimal $10-20 billion spread out between MBS' and asset/bond purchases.

I do think that there's a good chance (50/50) they do nothing but imply more moving forward then they have previously.

Look at it this way....the Fed could get a lot of bang (positive stock market reaction) for their "taper" buck if they do nothing today and stay the course short term and just use free Fed speak/words to create maximum impact because they've got mostly everyone anticipating a taper of QE to some degree today.

They usually zig when everyone's about to zag. We'll find out in 2 1/2 hours and your guess is as good as mine.

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Key Economic Events Week of 11/18

11/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perms
11/20 2:00 ET October FOMC minutes
11/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
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Key Economic Events Week of 11/11

11/12 Three Fed Goon speeches
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Key Economic Events Week of 11/4

11/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
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11/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
11/6 Speeches by Goons Williams, Harker and Evans
11/8 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
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Key Economic Events Week of 10/28

10/30 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
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Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
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10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
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10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
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10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
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Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
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10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
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10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
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Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
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9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
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