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Pre Fedlines Open Thread

267
Wed, Sep 18, 2013 - 10:24am

Only about 3.5 hours to go before all the fun starts. Here's a thread to get you ready.

Just two charts so that we're all on the same page. Again, once we broke down last week and then closed below $1320, it became clear that a minimum downside was somewhere near $1270. Might we see that later today? I hope not but it's certainly NOT out of the question.

The main item of interest, though, is the obvious attempt to hammer price last evening. When this type of move is employed by The Forces of Darkness ahead of the news event, it's almost always a fakeout. Why? Because the bullion banks, as agents of the central banks, likely already know the outcome. By crashing price, they are attempting to draw in as many fresh Spec shorts as possible, into which they cover and BUY. We saw this identical pattern back on 9/5, the day before the latest BLSBS release. We'll see how it turns out this time but, I must tell you, last night's action makes me quite optimistic about the ultimate outcome of today's craziness.

One more thing...For subscribers, this weeks Access2Access event has been scheduled. It will be a webinar with Andy Hoffman of Miles Franklin. Just like last week, participants will be able to submit the questions and Andy will answer them live during the presentation. If you want to be a part of it, you can register by clicking here: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/6634276493783303426

Have a fun day!

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  267 Comments

chocolatechiphorses · Sep 18, 2013 - 10:27am

UNO NUMBER 1

pforth · Sep 18, 2013 - 10:27am

I've never been first before..

Teach · Sep 18, 2013 - 10:29am

https://usawatchdog.com/gold-backwardation-the-meltdown-of-all-meltdowns-karen-hudes/

I quite admire this woman's guts and candor. She has the credentials to be very believable as well. Keep prepping!

Teach · Sep 18, 2013 - 10:31am

This guy has the credentials also, and some very interesting predictions...some good..some scary: https://bullmarketthinking.com/gold-trader-%E2%80%9Cthe-market-manipulation-has-begun-again%E2%80%9D/

Keep Stacking!

achmachat · Sep 18, 2013 - 10:35am

...since open thread!

I am looking forward to where this will take us.

happy fedlines day!

Eflact · Sep 18, 2013 - 10:38am

I have never been a turdth before. A turd maybe, but not a turdth. I have to learn to type faster.

ctob · Sep 18, 2013 - 10:40am

Shelter in place! Its the taper, assume the position; put you head between your legs and kiss you ass goodbye.

Or not. 

zman · Sep 18, 2013 - 10:43am

If the current QE programs around the globe (5 years now) haven't created that inflationary fear that all gold bugs all assumed, why does it really matter what policy the Fed does in regards to taper? The current QE policy is not inflationary, more of the same does nothing for the sector.

Maybe the more important question is, what "new" Fed policy could exist in the years ahead? Some policy that creates a increase in the velocity of money, that ends up being PM bullish.

As long as the BOJ, BOE, Euro zone, China and the Fed are all doing the same QE policy, the dollar is in no real danger on a relative basis, in fact it might stay the best of the worst.

Mr. Fix · Sep 18, 2013 - 10:45am

smiley

hammerman · Sep 18, 2013 - 10:50am

9999999999999999999999

John Galt · Sep 18, 2013 - 10:53am

A smiley face? Is that another manifesto? enlightened

(just kidding!)

ReachWest · Sep 18, 2013 - 10:55am

Absolutely no doubt in my mind that the BB's already know what's going to come out of today's Fed announcement. There is nary a crumb of honesty and integrity remaining in this market. (Sadly the word 'market' really no longer applies to whatever this is.)

mrneutron · Sep 18, 2013 - 11:12am
Berlusconi Address Over His Expulsion Vote And Bernanke Press Conference To Coincide

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-18/berlusconi-address-over-his-expulsion-vote-and-bernanke-press-conference-coincide

"what is most curious is that the vote, the Berlusconi expulsion vote and nationwide address, as well as the Bernanke press conference, which is also due at 2:30pm Eastern, will all coincide. "

Urban Roman · Sep 18, 2013 - 11:19am

Raise your hand if you expect that, 500 milliseconds before they release the FOMC minutes, some mysterious party will have an irresistible urge to sell half the silver and gold that is postulated to exist intermingled with the nickel-iron core of the earth.

(It will not be an act of rehypothecation, it will be repostulation.)

tyberious · Sep 18, 2013 - 11:19am

Goldman Sachs recommends gold producers hedge their output

by Lawrence Williams, MineWeb.com

In a final note on their latest commodities research on gold, Goldman Sachs analysts, Jeffrey Currie and Damien Courvalin suggest that gold miners should hedge their output and lock in 2013 prices and beyond, given the investment bank’s medium term forecast of gold falling further to $1,050 an ounce. But maybe producers should be wary about hedging at current levels and may recall the Goldman inspired hedging activity by Ashanti Goldfields back in 1999 which led to the miner’s demise and it being swallowed up subsequently by AngloGold when the gold price moved against it. (As Wikipedia puts it: In 1999, the company [Ashanti] succumbed to an ill-executed gold price hedge led by Goldman Sachs, which drove it to the brink of bankruptcy). Thus Goldman Sachs is not always right, although as we’ve mentioned before sometimes its analyses and subsequent recommendations move the market on their own, such is the aura surrounding the bank’s activities and advice.

Read More @ MineWeb.com

Oh they are desperate!!

· Sep 18, 2013 - 11:21am

As much as I was hoping to get some work done today, it sure seems that my intentions may be futile. TF, before you started blogging your posts, I did not have this problem. Instead, I would have cared less about the "Fed," or any of the Washington gibberish littering the headlines. This is what got me thinking this morning.

What happened to all the past sensational headlines, all just from the top of my head:

(1) Iran Nuclear Ambitions

(2) N. Korea Nuclear Ambitions

(3) Syria Civil War/Chemical Weapons

(4) Fukishima

(5) Cyprus Banking mess/ EU Banking Mess

And these, taken from an internet site that tracks world headlines:

NSA Spying Scandal; World Flooding; Savar Building Collapse in Bangladesh; Resignation of Pope Benedict XVI; Kiss Nightclub Fire in Brazil; Horse Meat Scandal; Murder of Odin Lloyd; USA Ammunition Shortage; Fluoridated Water Controversy

What about all these?

Is the Fed meeting, and its possible ostensible decision on tapering worth all this attention and headline grabbing? If yes, does it not then clearly demonstrate the nature of our modern fiat financial system, all of us beholden to a mysterious governing cabal of extremely powerful men backed by extremely powerful figures in shadowy positions? If not, then why is the world so focused upon it?

More than anything else, because the fed's decision is so widely anticipated and will be acted upon by countless financial algorithms and firms in the various trading arenas, then by simple logic, it would follow that most anyone with a simple amount of intelligence would naturally focus intently upon the pending decision. However, none and I mean none of the sheeple have a clue, nor are they remotely paying attention or interested in the slightest about what if anything may be said by the bearded puppet Bernanke.

To me, that disconnect, that it exists, and is so pure and so beyond argument, is damning proof that the financial system is rigged for the powers that be beyond all hope for anyone who does not have a seat at the inner table. We are all just observers, some more knowledgeable than others, about what is really going on.

So, as I sit in rapt fascination trying to predict what will happen, I come at it from a bit of a different angle. To me, it really doesn't matter whether there is a taper, a tape worm, or a tequila shot (speaking of worms . . .).

What does matter, and what I try to focus on, are the various incentives each of the individuals have who happen to be sitting at the inner table. Understand the incentives and one can understand the motivations regarding what actions are taken, by whom, and to what end.

In that regard, is fascinating to prognosticate about selection of the new Fed chairman. The new blog post I'm writing for tonight's publication will deal with this concept.

Meanwhile, how about them Dodgers?

(7) 

WineGuy · Sep 18, 2013 - 11:24am

Watch the HUI for clues. The miners can't and won't stay at this level.

BagOfGold Urban Roman · Sep 18, 2013 - 11:28am

Can you see me raising my hand?...Yup!...Lots of volatility today...& the EE has unleashed the...

Bag Of Gold

mack · Sep 18, 2013 - 11:29am

nice to see you in print out here. I am with Cal Lawyer except that I will take the the tequilla first ( for my tape worm) of course and taper off later.

¤ · Sep 18, 2013 - 11:33am

Except I think they started last night as TF has been mentioning.

My guess on today's Fed is a minimal $10-20 billion spread out between MBS' and asset/bond purchases.

I do think that there's a good chance (50/50) they do nothing but imply more moving forward then they have previously.

Look at it this way....the Fed could get a lot of bang (positive stock market reaction) for their "taper" buck if they do nothing today and stay the course short term and just use free Fed speak/words to create maximum impact because they've got mostly everyone anticipating a taper of QE to some degree today.

They usually zig when everyone's about to zag. We'll find out in 2 1/2 hours and your guess is as good as mine.

CaribSurfKing · Sep 18, 2013 - 11:34am

Metals have completely been destroyed since QE3

If we go to 2007 metals prices, what it states is

1. Metals gurus were wrong about the post 2008 collapse inflation i..e we are still deflating

2. Deflation/derivatives are 30 years of coiled spring that is more powerful than anything!

3. The S&P is completely over valued! P/E's are way too high considering jobs and commodity prices!

Or metals are being suppressed, which is a conspiracy theory answer! Moreover, why would you invest in something that can always be suppressed with the hope that one fine day, economic reality will finally prevail ( even though it hasn't for 30+ years )

achmachat · Sep 18, 2013 - 11:36am

one of my precious metals dealers from Germany just increased their premiums on one-ounce gold coins by almost 10€!

everybody seems to have nervous trigger fingers. 

edit: now the sudden increase is more more than 10€

tyberious · Sep 18, 2013 - 11:36am

Yes Mr. Bernanke, We Have a Gold Shortage!

September 17, 2013
Hosted by Jay Taylor

[Download MP3s: Hour 1: Yes Mr. Bernanke, We Have a Gold Shortage! Hour 2: Yes Mr. Bernanke, We Have a Gold Shortage! ] [itunes] [Bookmark Episode]

Paul Yusem appears for the first time and Florian Siegfried and Daniel McAdams return. Why has the price of gold declined so dramatically over the past several months when at the same time demand for gold has risen so dramatically and supply has been constant? Paul Yusem, editor of The Gold and Silver Analyst newsletter, will explain how that basic law of economics is seemingly being defied and we will ask him what he thinks that means for the future of the precious metals. To help us pick some really good gold and silver stocks, Florian Siegfried who is the portfolio manager for a Swiss-based hedge fund will return this week. And to touch on the latest on the geopolitical front, Daniel McAdams of the Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity will join me once again. I also plan to cover some of my own picks and address some of the questions and comments listeners sent in from prior shows.

silver10sguy zman · Sep 18, 2013 - 11:38am

Taper,

I have had the same thought that with so many nations doing QE the dollar would be fine. However, since we are the world reserve currency the deals among nations for several years as pointed out by Jim Willie shows little confidence in the future of the dollar. A ZeroHedge article this week showed only Japan is still buying US treasuries. China continues to dump Treasuries slowly but surely. If Treasuries continue to be sold off I am more and more fearful for the dollar going to new lows. We may make lots of money in gold and silver but our country is in BIG trouble. Other than gold and silver I am debating on more assets to protect myself in the future. Thanks Taper and everyone for your many great posts.

Also, our economy looks weaker and weaker despite the main street media saying otherwise. 

treefrog · Sep 18, 2013 - 11:39am
Stopped By Police At 2:00 AM An elderly man was stopped by the police around 2 AM and was asked where he was going at that time of night. Untitled
The man replied, "I'm on my way to a lecture about alcohol abuse and the effects it has on the human body,
as well as smoking and staying out late."

The officer then asked, "Really? Who's giving that lecture at this time of night?"

The man replied, "That would be my wife."
tyberious · Sep 18, 2013 - 11:41am

Maybe I am an extreme contrarian but I take much joy and pride knowing that I hold ounces of precious metals, that have been undervalued for 30 years. And I have bought when their devaluation was extreme.

Fondle your stack, it makes you feel better.

Gold Dog · Sep 18, 2013 - 11:44am

Does anyone know off hand if any states have legalized gold and silver as legal tender?

I want to own land there.

Your friend,

Dog

agNau · Sep 18, 2013 - 11:53am

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-18/president-obama-responds-gop-b... https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-18/bond-yields-surge-gop-speaks-l... and a larger wetter blanket added to the ongoing taper that never "officially" happened....... The talk is the taper....... Now the debt ceiling talk will be in direct confrontation to the taper talk. quite the de lemon! who'd of thought they would interject it at this critical time? this is amusing. great wailing and gnashing of teeth comes! posturing.....pontificating.....hand wringing.... "think of what this will do to our children if we cannot educate them" "we have never defaulted... we will not this time!......we will pay our bills!"

Mr. Fix · Sep 18, 2013 - 11:59am

The Complete FOMC Announcement Preview

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/18/2013 - 11:33
  • Expectations for Fed to begin to taper asset purchases by USD 10-15bln
  • Ranges for pace of Treasury purchases: high USD 45bln, low USD 25bln
  • Ranges for pace of MBS purchases: high USD 45bln, low USD 30bln
  • Some see FOMC lowering unemployment threshold from current 6.5%
  • Summary of Economic Projections and Press Conference from Fed Chairman Bernanke follow the announcement
joeblack · Sep 18, 2013 - 11:59am

CEF spiked down to $12.19, below the June lows this morning.

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Key Economic Events Week of 11/12

11/14 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Philly Fed
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories
11/16 9:15 ET Industrial Prod and Cap Utilization

Key Economic Events week of 11/5

11/5 9:45 ET PMI Services
11/5 10:00 ET ISM Services
11/6 US Mid-term Election Day
11/8 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
11/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
11/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events week of 10/29

10/31 8:15 ET ADP employment
10/31 8:30 ET Employment Cost Index
11/1 8:30 ET Productivity
11/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
11/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/2 8:30 ET Balance of Trade
11/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

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