TGIF! Week in Review

174
Fri, Sep 13, 2013 - 8:58am

Good morning Turdville and TGIF! Time for one of those unconventional market updates, Lantern style!

Gold and Silver

We celebrated two anniversaries this week. The 12 year anniversary of 9/11 and the two year anniversary of when gold got smacked off its all time highs at $1900. Currently, Gold is not living up to it's seasonal price expectations. Gold was smacked once again, dropping to five week low on news that the Patriots beat the Jets 13-10. And Silver had it's biggest weekly drop since April on news that Hurricane Humberto was weakening over the Atlantic. Oh, you thought I was going to say something like Syria or the market anticipating an announcement of slow stimulus next week coming from the Fed? Well, yeah... right.

The man who can get inside the head of investors and banksters and tell you why something went up or something went down and be 100% accurate is lying to you. Not that there isn't any relationship, only that it is as likely that it is the wind and rain. BTW, the weather experts predicted a terrible Hurricane season. I have my fingers crossed that they continue to be wrong as we watch all these weather systems off the coast of west Africa continue to fizzle out.

Your favorite analyst is probably now telling you something like gold and silver fell below it's key supports and could go lower to $1300 or even $1250 UNLESS it doesn't. Watch and wait for news on Syria, QE and debt ceiling. Well, yeah!

I'm really not making fun of your favorite technical analyst or whatever system they are using because some of them are pretty darn good at their jobs. As a matter of fact, I have defended their work twice in the last week based on historical precedent. It's just a fact of life that human's ability to predict the short term future is a precarious one unless you are a fly on the wall over in Blythe Masters office. And boy, I'd like to give that a try.

While the charts might be damaged, the reasons to own the metals are doing just fine. Demand has Never been better! I'm going to skip all the World Council numbers and the outrageous consumer demand in India and China because you have heard it before. If you still need convincing that it's a good time to own metals at this juncture in history, I'll have my secretary fax you the data sheet on the unprecedented debt, the on again/off again insolvency of our financial institutions, and the eternal state of war. Pin pricks my ass!

The fact is gold performed well coming off it's June lows and silver had it's best weekly rise in 5 years. Not too shabby but as I've said so many times the metals remain extremely volatile. Volatility remains the key word that all metal bugs need to learn to live with until you are told otherwise. For that matter, the world is in a volatile state with Syria still on the agenda, taper talk and once again congress is having another debate about raising the debt ceiling. Pluh-leeeze. Somebody stop this world and throw congress off this spinning planet.

Here is the scorecard for debt ceiling increases since the 1940's. Need I say more?

If you read Turd's last post or watched the video of Max Keiser interviewing the Turd, you also know that JP Morgan is looooong gold. As a matter of fact, they are now holding the longest position in any regulated futures market in history! 25% of the entire COMEX gold futures! Schwiiing!!!

INFLATION

As I've been saying and Argentus Maximus has been pointing out in his well written macro pieces, we simply haven't seen the type of inflation that gold bugs really enjoy. Sort of a paradoxical quandary all of you got yourself into as being being a gold bug. The thing you despise, inflation, is the thing you most need for your investment to do well. Kind of like rooting for the home team and the underdog at the same time.

With the Fed announcement coming up in a week, here is what I expect. CHANGE! If QE to infinity refers only to a swap, than I'm not on board. If it means, doing whatever is necessary, count me in. Of course, there is the remote possibility that they could let the economy crumble. I recommend you listen to Art Cashin's latest interview on KWN. He is talking the same playbook I am in regards to what could happen with QE. The fed could decide to get serious and drop some real cash into the economy or stimulate bank lending to ensure those root vegetables at the supermarket become a luxury item. I do the grocery shopping in my house and I can tell you that fruits and vegetables are not part of the economy experiencing stagflation.

Then there is the other possibility I've mentioned which we will call "structural changes" A nice way of saying stealing your money. My friend DPH, pointed out recently that the FDIC has adopted new regulations. If you are a foreign depositor in an overseas branch of a US bank, you ain't getting paid. I'm no actuary but it seems to me when your insurance denies you coverage, you are considered a risk.

Foreign Deposits In US Banks Not Insured

Putin Writes Op-ED to NYT

Now for some fun!!! On Thursday, Putin brought his case against US intervention in Syria directly to the American people by submitting an Op Ed Pieceto the New York Times.

Putin Talks to the Americans

Let me tell you, this was some 1st class entertainment. The MSM and the folks on Capital Hill are ripping it apart. Putin really stoked the fires and it's probably exactly what he was trying to do. The United Nations going the way of the League of Nations, The US supporting armed terrorists, and American "exceptionalism" as stated by the Prez in his Syrian speech.


Putin writes: "Millions around the world increasingly see America not as a model of democracy but as relying solely on brute force, cobbling coalitions together under the slogan “you’re either with us or against us.”

I think Putin was on the mark with the American exceptionalism however, I'd call it Divine Rights of Kings. The president believes he has been consecrated as a God and now it is our responsibility to stop the scourge of tyranny around the world. Who died and made him king? More on divine right of kings and deification in my next article.

A Leisure Moment


Finally, as promised I'd keep you abreast of the latest breaking news for the fall foliage season. I am a man of my word. In case you didn't know, humidity is NOT the recipe for brilliant leaves so unless it gets cool and sunny quick, we're going to pass the color phase and go right to brown. But right now it's too early to tell. Right now Maine is showing some promise.

This picture in from Durham, Maine

And here are the reports for NEast, SEast and Midwest. Our non US Turds are going to have to be the beat reporters for their own countries

Northeast foliage report

Midwest

Southeast

Rock on! (Maravich that's your cue)

About the Author

Green Lantern

  174 Comments

Hammer
Sep 13, 2013 - 9:05am

yup

yup. Been a couple of years since I got a first so :)

Welcome to the weekend folks :)

As always GL, lighting the fires with Fall on the way in The North.

hai
Sep 13, 2013 - 9:08am
achmachat
Sep 13, 2013 - 9:13am

spambot

wow... the hai spambot got second place!

Hammer
Sep 13, 2013 - 9:15am

Spain’s public debt already

Spain’s public debt already exceeds target for full year

Level of indebtedness rose to 92 percent of GDP in first half

https://elpais.com/elpais/2013/09/13/inenglish/1379077566_847944.html?

Fat Willie
Sep 13, 2013 - 9:24am

Larry Summers

So they apparently did the trial balloon on Summers as fed chair, and the markets started puking pretty fast. Hard to believe that there isn't a connection to the smash yesterday. That is a pretty big coincidence. For reminder, google Larry summers and Gibsons paradox. A Summers appointment could mean even more blatant gold smashing.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-13/white-house-shoots-down-nikkei...

Gold Dog
Sep 13, 2013 - 9:29am

Good morning!

Gold seems a little squishy.

It was a good trade while it lasted.

Thanks GL.

Your friend,

Dog

sierra skier
Sep 13, 2013 - 9:34am

What a Week

What a week, and the metals have been killed again.

We may as well predict the market moves by football scores and hurricanes because the old standby relationships between markets are long gone. There is no longer any rhyme or reason to market moves except for the whims of those in charge.

The fall colors here have yet to start their change. When they do go it is gorgeous though.

TreeTop Dweller
Sep 13, 2013 - 9:42am

Ready for some upward momentum?

Excellent work GL! Thanks again.

Just A Regular Guy
Sep 13, 2013 - 9:51am

About them manipulators....

Ok so it has been pretty brutal for people long phys, but as some point out - has your stack grown or decreased? Oh it's the same, so why worry? For me I am concerned about what is going to happen in the last quarter of this year. It seems, at face value, that it is going to be bad, worse, or fubar.
If the monkeys are going to monkey hammer gold why worry? I have said more times that I can count that after the intermediate bottom in June (I think the 25 or 26th) I fired half my powder, with another half in waiting. Now I feel vindicated as I'm guessing we're going to see gold retrace below $1100, somewhere between the 50% and 61.8% retracement from the 1920ish high. My crappy back of envelope calculations are between say $903 - 1080.

Does anyone know (as I am not able to check at the moment) when the smash-down in April happened, was it initiated on a Friday (as my memory tells me) and continued through to the following week? If so, well we have FOMC next week, and pending the technicals (Turd will help us with that) I am guessing we'll see much weakness on Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday.

Anyway boys and girls, good luck out there, as much as I HATE being a bear here I don't think being a bull is great either. If it does drop to anywhere near $1100 i'm a getting uber-bullish. From here I can only assume we resume the bull-market. Either way, we'll find out very shortly if the gold bull is dead or not. If it dies, which would seem soooooooooo unbelievably illogical then ..... /cries

Peace and

Gold Dog
Sep 13, 2013 - 9:52am

Skier

There are those that have predicted that the closer we get to the end the more volatile the metals will become.

BTFD may be more applicable for those that are still under "insured".

That said- Lois Lerner should be compelled to testify.

"WHAT DOES IT MATTER!"- Cankles 2013

YF,

D

EDIT- From Tyler- Gold does best Greece does worst. Who wudda thought?

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-13/best-and-worst-performing-asse...

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

Forum Discussion

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