Important Week Ahead

Sun, Sep 8, 2013 - 11:34pm

I interrupt my regularly scheduled article to bring you more late breaking news. I'll save my historical treatise for another date as everyone seems focused on the events in Syria and whether or not the Fed will continue QE. No sense in fighting the news trend and since many of you are already talking about it, I might as well dedicate this Sunday Evening/Monday Morning post thread to Syria and QE3.

Last week was a pretty intense week with accusations that the administration is committing war crimes, a 100 point plunge in the Dow on Friday morning, and Crude getting a boost on Syria. The Syrian situation is giving a rise to saber-rattling between the US and Russia that we haven't seen since the Cold War of the 1950's and the Gulf of Tonkin. As we learned on Friday courtesy of Jim Comiskey, Russia is sending military ships to the Syrian coast

Will Russia consider a strike against Syria an international violation and act of War against the Russians?

In case you haven't seen it, on Sunday Russia issued a 100 page report saying that the Syrian rebels are behind the Sarin Gas attacks and that John Kerry and the US are liars.

"The Russian statement warned the United States and its allies not to conduct a military strike against Syria until the United Nations had completed a similarly detailed scientific study into the Aug. 21 attack. It warned that what it called the current “hysteria” about a possible military strike in the West was similar to the false claims and poor intelligence that preceded the United States invasion of Iraq."

What I'd like for you to keep in mind about Syria is that Israel has invaded Syrian airspace 3 or 4 times this year and struck surgical targets including anti ship cruise missiles. No fuss was made by US media or much discussion about it in the alternative media. Russia also has already been sending anti-ship and anti-air craft missiles to Syria, and reports indicated that they have been sending in technical experts to set up the system.

So with on going missile attacks between Israel and Syria, continued Russian involvement in the region, why has the threat of a garden variety missile strike by the US become an international incident? Has what has already been going on reached a peak? Or is there a reason the US media wants us focused on this event?

Taper Talk

As most of you have heard by now Friday's nonfarm payroll report showed that while the economy created 169,000 new jobs, the numbers were below expectations and represented a continued drop in labor participation. Remember, the Fed has said that it is decisions regarding taper was predicated on improving unemployment.

Whether or not the Fed tapers , the threat of tapering will certainly continue to build up and any fall in the major stock indices or the metals will surely be attributed to the anticipation of the Fed tapering and it's possible impact on economic activity. As many you have noted, as well as most metal analysts, a taper would have disastrous effects on the economy. In addition, all that money that is sitting in the bank reserves is unlikely to get lent out thereby reducing reserves and threatening bank contagion, and a very inflationary situation that the Fed would find unacceptable.

As I mentioned in a previous article, the Fed has focused it's monetary policy specifically on mortgage backed securities as a swap where the reserves mostly remain with the banks. I suggested that the mantra QE to infinity does not address the ways in which the Fed could begin influencing other area's of the economy if it decided to lessen the amount of MBS it buys. Also the anticipation of what the Fed will do is occurring as the prospective new Fed chairman, Larry Summers, is going through his selection process. Larry Summer's has said that QE3 has had virtual no effect positively or negatively on the economy.

Finally, a lighter piece of news announcing the new Obama Presidential's an outhouse. It has stirred a bit of controversy in this small New Mexico town.

About the Author


Sep 9, 2013 - 10:41pm
Mr. Fix
Sep 9, 2013 - 10:47pm

Now it's just getting silly:

Kerry Tells Lavrov Chemical Disarmament Demand Was "Rhetorical", Not Meant To Be Proposal

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/09/2013 - 16:07

To paraphrase:

  • Kerry to Syria: Turn over your chemical weapons!
  • Syria to Kerry: Ok
  • Kerry to Syria: I was being rhetorical. We will just bomb you anyway, as soon as we are done gassing you.
Sep 9, 2013 - 10:50pm

John Lennon's "-ism"

I guess that would be the "J" -ism?


NO!!! No, no, no! I mean in honor of his Japanese wife, Yoko!

Sep 9, 2013 - 11:31pm

Comments from an Air Force soldier

My sister's BF (well, ex now ... thats a diff story lol) has just told us that he was immediately ordered to stop ALL activitities and report to base. Literally the day he got there, he was flown down to Texas to start prelim training (2 weeks) ... He is there now. After the 2 weeks, His divisions and other air force personnel are scheduled for a 6 week WAR PREPARATION in South Carolina (I believe it was a SC base). THEY HAVE BEEN SPECIFICALLY TOLD THAT THEY ARE TRAINING FOR WAR WITH SYRIA Thats all I have to say right now ... I'll see if he says anymore after the 2 weeks in texas on his way to the next training camp....

argent rampant
Sep 10, 2013 - 9:41am

Sinking US ships

is not impossible, but please consider the following:

a. No anti-ship missile can hit anything outside it's range.

b. US ships in the Med have no need to go within the range of land based missiles in Syria.

c. No US carrier is within the threat envelope for either Syrian or Russian missiles, probably not for Iranian missiles either.

d. We are not going to have a hot war with Russia.

e. Iranian ASCM's would be an invitation for a counter strike they do not want.

f. Missiles are not guaranteed to hit their targets, US Navy has sophisticated multi-layered missile defenses.

g. IF missiles hit a carrier, they may cause serious damage and fire, put the ship out of action (because it cannot launch aircraft) and get a lot of people really, really revved up (on all sides) - but the ship is NOT going to be sunk by 1,2, 3 or even more topside missile hits.

Hull damage sinks ships, not topside damage. Water has to enter the hull in sufficient quantity to overcome the reserve buoyancy, or cause the ship become unstable and roll over. Missiles are very unlikely to do that kind of hull damage to a 100,000 ton, highly compartmented aircraft carrier. Keep in mind, everything above the hangar deck is superstructure (not part of the hull). In theory, you could wreck all of that and the ship would still be perfectly seaworthy.


NOTE: In 1967, USS Forrestal had an accidental rocket launch from an aircraft during preparations to launch a bombing raid against North Vietnam. In the resulting conflagration, nine bombs (500 & 1000 lb) detonated on the flight deck, opening huge holes through which burning fuel poured into the compartments below. 134 sailors were killed and 161 more injured. The ship was never in any danger of sinking.

Mr. Fix
Sep 10, 2013 - 12:33pm

@ argent rampant

Thank you for your previous post, I tend to agree with your assertion that it is very highly unlikely that a carrier can be sunk with a missile, even with a few torpedoes. Last year, I took my family on board the Intrepid museum anchored off Manhattan. Part of what they had on display there, was a memorial for those who died when somebody dropped the bomb on it, it went through the flight deck, exploded on the hangar deck, blew up most of the planes there, and yet the ship survived.

As to whether a ship can be hit with a missile, is an entirely different argument, both China and Russia claimed to have anti-ship missiles which are 10 years more advanced than anything in our arsenal, supposedly, can travel something like Mach 7, and have a 700 mile range. (I'm not debating the point), until somebody actually uses one, it's only speculation.

Tensions seem to have simmered down for now anyway, hopefully it will stay that way for a good long time.

I can't wait to see what Obama has to say about it all tonight, not that I'll believe a word of it, but some people might.

Strongsidejedi Mr. Fix
Sep 10, 2013 - 1:03pm

@Mr.Fix - about those claims

You claim "China and Russia claimed to have anti-ship missiles which are 10 years more advanced than anything in our arsenal, supposedly, can travel something like Mach 7, and have a 700 mile range. (I'm not debating the point), until somebody actually uses one, it's only speculation."

I call BS.

Mach 7 is unsustainable for any air breathing engine. If it were only a solid propellant rocket, then maybe it might be able to reach a peak velocity of Mach 7, but that rocket / missile sure wouldn't be sustaining Mach 7 for very long.

Mr. Fix
Sep 10, 2013 - 1:21pm


I sure wish I remember where I read that, it was a couple of weeks ago, and I have a hard time finding links to what I read yesterday.

I suppose that I could go looking for it later, but it wasn't the point I was making. I also read about a year ago that China successfully tested a anti-ship missile launched from the mainland, and took out something floating around in the middle of the Pacific.

Again, that was a year ago.

It's only been in recent days that I've read a bunch of stuff that says that Russian anti-ship missiles are more advanced than anything in our arsenal, and I am pretty sure those were the numbers given, but often when I'm reading, I just start clicking links, on sites that I had clicked a link to get on, and it is not unusual for me to have 10 pages open at the same time, because I just keep following the links. If it was in yesterday, I could go back through my browser history, but I haven't seen that story reported in the past week.

I'll keep an eye open for it, but it's not relevant to the discussion as I will concede that it is highly unlikely that even a weapon as described could actually sink a carrier. I think the main point they were making, is that it was very hard to defend against because of its speed, and that it would be able to penetrate our defenses.

Then again, I've made the mistake of posting a few things in the last 24 hours that didn't turn out to be true,

it wouldn't surprise me in the least if they didn't actually have squat.

Like it's been said before, and I believe to be true, “the first casualty of war is the truth”.

argent rampant
Sep 10, 2013 - 1:55pm

Fix: The Russian and US Navies have different priorities.

Rightly or wrongly, ours is focused on military/political power projection through the use of carrier-based air and, more recently, the use of long range land attack cruise missiles. The Russian navy, in contrast, has for decades been focused on taking out our carriers. That is why they have continued to develop ever faster, more sophisticated and hard to stop ASCM's while we have developed better and better defense against those ACSM's, while focusing primarily on our power projection abilities. I also suspect that, after the fall of the wall, we ceased to see the Russians as our primary likely adversary and so we may have fallen a step or two behind in that tit-for-tat competition. That's only speculation on my part, however. I don't really know.

The intent of my posts is not to argue that the US Navy is invincible, far from it. The fact is that if a carrier task force must devote all it's resources to defending itself, it has effectively been neutralized as an offensive force. I have recognized that for decades.

All I wanted to do is educate people a bit about naval warfare - a subject few are all that familiar with - and get people to stop all the panicky talk about us having ships sunk. Unless we get into a real shootout in the Med with the Russian navy, which I never saw as a probable scenario, nobody is likely to be sinking any US Navy ships.

One thing you alluded to, as have I, is torpedoes. These can and have sunk carriers. We lost 12 carriers in WWII. All were torpedoed either by the Japanese or by our own forces when they were deemed too heavily damaged to be saved. Our submarines carry an anti-shipping torpedo that could and would break the back of virtually anything afloat. Basically, the warhead detonates several feet below the keel and pushes the water out from under the hull, which then breaks in two and drops into the hole. I saw a film of a demonstration on a WWII cruiser - it was gone completely in less than a minute!

The Russians have one just as good and it can be launched from several miles out. So, yes, a carrier can be sunk, but probably won't be with missiles.

Sep 11, 2013 - 4:37am
Sep 13, 2013 - 10:59am


Because more people are out, at shopping centers, downtown, beach, you name it, the folks are out more, on the weekend. Sure, it looks goofy, even darn right silly, and it makes even me laugh at myself, and many want a picture with the general, just for keep sake, and I tell you all, its a great time, meeting allot of people, pressing flesh, making jokes constantly, engaging some politically, talking the talk, walking the walk, and there is nothing like being a REAL LAGUNA TUNA, a local out and about with something a little different, and in my case, running for president, of course. The new Web page still has another week to go, but its looking simple and sweet, actually. So, TGIF, the weekend, yeah!!! that is me, in uniform, recruiting the Freedom Army, passing out the Freedom Platform.

Stray Cats - Stray Cat Strut
Stray Cats - Rock This Town
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